I heard comedian Drew Hastings on the radio the other morning. Actually, I should say I heard Drew’s alter ego Jack Freeman on the radio the other morning. Drew does a parody of success gurus with the character of Jack Freeman.
With the benchmark Federal Funds rate already down to 1.0%, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke has only so much room for another cut (although many economists are predicting an additional half-percentage-point cut at the Dec.15-16 meeting).
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) both fell in October. Those declines – combined with sharp downward spirals in worldwide stock and commodity prices – have caused many analysts, and even central bankers, to worry that we are on the brink of deflation.
There are a lot of forces impacting the gold market, yet prices are barely moving. Demand is soaring, but prices are dropping. What gives?
The Labor Department reported that its Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 1.2% in July and by 9.8% in the past year. A hefty increase… but given the press we’ve had on gasoline, energy, milk, grain and candy bar prices, it probably did not come quite unexpected.
Food price inflation is set to continue, according to a recently released UN report on food prices. This from CNN:
World food prices will fall from current peaks in the coming years but will remain “substantially above” average levels from the past decade.
The world’s poorest nations are most vulnerable — particularly the urban poor in food-importing countries — and will require increased humanitarian aid to stave off hunger and undernourishment, a joint agricultural outlook by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said.
The core US inflation rate or Producer Price Index (PPI) — a measure of the prices of goods excluding food and energy — rose 0.4% in April, double the increase forecast by economists.
This puts the core US inflation rate up 3% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year rise since late 1991.
The PPI figures are unlikely to affect the markets which, according to a report by MarketWatch, “don’t seem to trust the government’s inflation figures that show falling energy prices in a world of record crude oil prices.”
In the currency market, the dollar posted a modest gain against the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.5791 vs. $1.5803 on Monday.
In addition to all the earnings reports mentioned above, the economic calendar is full with important reports this week. Among those that jump out at me are the Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, the Philly Fed Survey, and Leading Indicators.