The 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th century belonged to America and in the 21st century, China will rule the business world. Whether you like it or not, this transition is already underway and it will intensify over the coming decades.
On one hand, the deflationists are claiming that given the extremely high debt levels in the West, further inflation is impossible. On the other side of the argument, many proponents of inflation are calling for Zimbabwe style hyperinflation. In this business, everyone is entitled to their opinion; however it is my contention that we will get neither deflation nor hyperinflation. If my assessment is correct, once business activity picks up, our world will have to deal with high inflation.
Despite the ‘demand destruction’ hype, it is interesting to note that during this severe global recession, worldwide oil usage has dropped by a minuscule 2.7%. So, what will happen when the world comes out of this recession? Who will rise up to the challenge and meet our insatiable thirst for energy? These are critical questions not many are willing to ask.
I was dismayed to see The Financial Times article about the new Central Bank Gold Agreement, where central banks agreed to limit their sales of sovereign gold to 400 tonnes a year. The European central banks, which includes the European Central Bank itself and the 16 banks of the Eurozone, plus Sweden’s Riksbank and Swiss National Bank, have all signed on with the new plan.
Last week, Mr. Bernanke announced that the Federal Reserve would buy $300 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries and another $700 billion worth of government-agency mortgage debt. In order to finance these purchases, the Federal Reserve would simply create this money out of thin air.
The current economic conditions certainly do not provide any comfort for investors. So, if the economic news remains poor for the foreseeable future, should investors rule out the potential for a significant recovery in asset prices?
Puru Saxena sees a historical opportunity for long-term gains amid the current financial meltdown. There is currently around $3.5 trillion sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be invested in strong sectors. Puru says natural resources and industrials still have strong fundamentals, meaning they may never again be as cheap as they are today.
“All of the nations that have resorted to money-printing in the past, ultimately saw a total economic collapse,” says Puru Saxena. The government bailouts and stimulus packages may provide some short-term relief, but the long-term hyperinflation and damage to the dollar will be much, much worse.
Lets face it, the era of easy money and cheap oil has come to an end.
Despite Ben Bernanke’s assertion yesterday at Harvard University that the US economy is not returning to the stagflation of the 1970s, slower growth and rising inflation have many wondering what is a good investment during stagflation should the Fed chief’s bravado prove to be wrong.
Bill Bonner says it took Paul Volcker’s leadership, along with a crippling recession, to end stagflation in the 1970s: