There is no doubt, the country will be glad to see 2008 come to an end.

Out of all of the horrific economic events taking place in Russia these days, none is more intriguing than Standard & Poor’s move it made earlier today. The company cut Moscow’s debt rating to just two notches above the dreaded “junk” status.

Thanks to a huge outflow of cash from Russia’s once-monumental reserves, the country’s debt is starting to join the ranks of failing companies like Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM). The news is only going to make the situation worse for the Kremlin.

No relief in sight

If oil prices remain where they are today, or fall even lower, the next few years are going to be very painful for Russia. With its cash reserves quickly dwindling and its borrowing costs on the rise, Russia is in a financially tough spot.

It has been nearly a decade since Russia was in such dire financial problems and was forced to default on its debt while watching the value of the ruble plummet. The current government is doing its best to assure its citizens that situation will not occur again anytime soon.

So what are the country’s options to pull it away from the grasp of economic calamity?

If you know, I am sure Putin and Medvedev would love to hear them.

The country’s options are to find a new natural resource to dig out of the ground and sell to its neighbors at a premium or raise the rates on the oil and natural gas it is producing now. Unlike the United States, it cannot borrow its way out of trouble. And it cannot follow China’s lead and produce its way out.

We saw a preview of what is in store last August when Russia raised its hackle in Georgia. Over the next few months, we are bound to see increased hostility in Eastern Europe. Moscow will not be able to stand back and watch its neighbors take advantage of plummeting natural gas prices. It will take aggressive action.

For investors, that means big-time profit potential. This is a subject we have been discussing a lot at Hot Stock Confidential. In fact, we are already seeing the action boost our portfolio. If you would like to read our thoughts, click here.

These are interesting times for Russia. Unfortunately, this looks like just the beginning of the story.

Source: The trouble keeps adding up for Russia

“The principal direction is the creation of a complete line of ships and equipment to extract and transport oil and gas from offshore deposits,” said Mr. Putin. “This includes drilling platforms, ice-class gas carriers and icebreakers.”

Building new ships to develop Russia’s offshore resources was the FIRST item on the agenda of the FIRST cabinet meeting of the new Medvedev government.

Russia will leverage its long and proud tradition of building exceptional vessels for its navy and commerce fleet. The maritime-industrial decline of the post-Soviet era is coming to an end. “Priorities have been decided,” said Deputy Prime Minister S. Ivanov, “We have enough money.”

Ah, music to one’s ears… “We have enough money.” When was the last time anyone in the US heard a politician make such an affirmative, purposeful declaration?

And to learn of these developments you have to read about them in the Sakhalin Times, not the New York Times or Los Angeles Times. U.S. news media, of course, have other things to cover — like motorists whining about the price of gasoline.

Each nation has its different priorities, I guess. What you see depends on where you stand. So where does the US stand on “energy?” While Russia is developing, the US is ignoring events. The political class, and its media enablers, rush headlong towards the energy-equivalent of the Little Big Horn.

More on the topic here.

Until we meet again,

Byron King

Note: Byron King is a frequent contributor to the free e-letter Whiskey & Gunpowder. To receive daily insights into energy, oil, commodities and other natural resources sign up here!

Source: Russia: Energy Priority #1

This we all know. But what if all goes wrong? What if the people the bank lends to don’t pay them back? What if too many savers want their deposits back? Basically, what if the bank runs out of cash?

Northern Rock posed this question last year. As well as using deposits, the Rock also topped up its lending from the money markets. But then the money markets seized up, and it was game over.

So the question was asked – what should be done now that it’s all gone wrong? It stumped the powers that be. The FSA, the Government, the Bank of England – they all scratched their heads. They scratched and they scratched, for several months, until they’d worn holes in the tops of their heads.

A bank is a private business. A bank that runs out of money, like any business that fails, can expect to go bust.

But, as we all know, that didn’t happen with Northern Rock. Once the head scratching was over, Northern Rock was nationalised. This marked a major deviation from the way private enterprise is supposed to work.

So now, the Treasury is drawing up plans for something called the special resolution regime (SRR). The idea is that in future the SRR would swiftly liquidate a failed bank, strip it of its assets and appoint new executives. Just as would happen with a failed business in any other sector.

But there’s a problem. Who will run the show? The FSA didn’t come out of the Northern Rock crisis very well. But the regulator would no doubt argue that its past performance should not be taken as a reliable indicator of the future.

Bank of England governor Mervyn King has reservations. He suggests there could be reluctance on the part of the FSA to pull the trigger if another bank fails. His reasoning is that this would be an admission of failure on the part of the regulator who allowed said bank to fail in the first place.

But the FSA counters that involving the Bank with a final decision would mean it would also inevitably become involved in monitoring, duplicating the FSA’s role.

Personally, I don’t really care who wins this little turf war. If I had to pick a side I’d go for the Bank. Call me a traditionalist.

A more fundamental question is how on earth have we got into this situation? As noted above, a failing bank should… well, fail. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand is supposed to allocate the spoils of business to those most deserving. Those who get it wrong get less… if they get it really wrong they get nothing.

But the workings of the market have been gummed up by regulation. That and political fear (runs on banks don’t look good on the telly. Better do something, quick!)

It’s this political fear that creates moral hazard. The banks knew the Government would never risk letting them fail. So they were happy to take big risks.

Now an institution, the SRR, is being created to effectively force punishment upon banks that mess up.

Welcome to the age of the Visible Hand.

Hold your nerve, Merv!

Hurrah! It’s the day before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets to decide what to do with interest rates.

Because I’m a sad man, I set up our very own Fleet Street Daily shadow MPC. Better-looking than the official MPC, our committee comprises seven wise men, one wise woman and Glenn, a bloke from Grimsby.

And my, was it close! A five-four split in favour of a quarter-point cut.

Not that this is what we expect the Bank will do. Nor necessarily what it should do.

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“And there’s also talk of US interest rates rising,” adds colleague Frank Hemsley. “That would put sterling in serious trouble! Especially if the Bank of England cuts our rates.”

Indeed. A weak pound would make imports – including food and energy – even more expensive. Meaning more inflation, and pressure to put rates back up if the Bank adopts a US Fed-style aggressive rate cutting policy.

Personally, I’d favour keeping rates on hold. Businesses and consumers are rational. They see the economy is struggling, and they’ve changed their behaviour accordingly. This is why each day we see new ‘bad data’. Cutting the base rate by a quarter-point will do little to change prevailing sentiment.

What it will do, though, is further undermine the Bank’s reputation as an independent inflation fighter. So I’m hoping the Bank stands firm and leaves rates where they are. It won’t be popular, but being popular is not the Bank’s job.