Don’t tell me we’re not doing anything for readers of of free service, the TFN eNews, and visitors of our TFN home page.

On August 20, we posted a free TFN Special Report, The Top Swine Flu Vaccine Stocks under $20, in which we recommended three stocks.

One of them, Sinovac (AMEX:SVA), gave us 30% gains on Aug. 28.

Today, the arguably largest and slowest-moving of the pig flu trip stepped on the gas. On Aug. 20, I recommended you “buy Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited (NYSE:RDY) under $16.50 for possible gains of 10-15% throughout 2010.”

Today, our Indian generics wallah is trading at $20.43. In our TFN tracking portfolio, this clocks in as a 25.95% gain.

I say we take it!

Source: Take 26% Gains on Indian Pharma Giant Dr. Reddy’s (RDY)

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX:SVA) is up 30.00%…

Vical Incorporated (NASDAQ:VICL) is up 16.05%…

Even staid-and-steady Indian generics brahmin Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (NYSE:RDY) is up 3.64%…

No moonshoots, for sure, but 30% in six days beats getting getting your chest waxed. (Or so I’ve heard.)

(The pig flu picks I reserved for our HSC members were a bit smaller… and just a tad more risky. That risk’s been paying off for one stock that shot up over 20% today, for total gains of over 40% in less than a week. But I’m digging in and holding for more..)

Source: First Gains on Swine Flu Vaccine Stocks

The Indian market zoomed 17% on Monday on the news that the Congress Party had been re-elected with an increased majority. It’s certainly true that some of the other alternatives – for example a weak leftist Third Force coalition including the spectacularly corrupt Mayawati Kumari (India’s richest politician, a keenly fought title) – would have been worse.

Nevertheless, you have to remember that the Congress Party (also known as the India National Congress, and referred to by its initials, INC) is responsible for most of India’s woes, both recently and in the 60 years since independence, and that putting it back into power is unlikely to bring much of a step forward – economically speaking.

Condemned to Slow Growth

For more than 40 years after independence – albeit with one short exception – India was ruled by the Congress party and condemned to slow economic growth. Then, after 1991, then finance minister Manmohan Singh began opening up the economy. However, growth had already slowed again in the mid 1990s and it was only under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998-2004 that India removed many of its longstanding statist obstacles to growth, and began to enjoy economic growth rates comparable to those of China.

The Vajpayee government was rejected by the Indian electorate in 2004, in a stunning act of electoral ingratitude second only to Britain’s shocking 1945 rejection of Winston Churchill, who had helped engineer the Allied victory in World War II.

Since 2004, India’s Congress Party has been back in power under Singh – this time as prime minister – in a coalition with the left. The nation’s leadership has made endless promises of reform, but has really accomplished very little. Economic growth has continued to be rapid, largely because of the Vajpayee government’s reforms, which were particularly extensive during that administration’s last two years in power in 2002-2004. The Congress Party’s main achievements were run-ups in both public spending and the fiscal deficit, the latter of which seems likely to run at a rate of about 12% of gross domestic product (GDP) for the 2009-2010 period – if state deficits are included.

By the 2009 election, Vajpayee had retired, and his successor as BJP leader – L.K. Advani – was both old and associated with the party’s Hindu nationalist wing, so it’s not surprising that the BJP failed to make progress. The collapse of support in the election for the mostly leftist third parties is itself a good sign, making a swing back to the BJP under new leadership more likely whenever the next election occurs, probably in 2014.

In the five intervening years until that happens, India will have to endure a Congress Party government, either under current Prime Minister Singh, or possibly under newcomer Rahul Gandhi – grandson of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, which would make him the latest member of the Nehru/Gandhi dynasty to hold that office.

Don’t Expect Reforms

Congress’ claim to reformism becomes especially thin when you look at the party’s allies. For example, West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress led the violent opposition to Tata Motors Ltd.’s (NYSE ADR: TTM) “Nano” automobile plant in that state. Tata had managed to do a deal with Bengal’s Communist state government to produce the revolutionary $2,000 car, but the Trinamool Congress was able to force Tata to relocate the plant to Gujarat at a cost of more than $500 million, delaying the full production of the Nano by more than a year. In the recent elections, Trinamool, in alliance with the national Congress Party, was rewarded with 26 of West Bengal’s 42 parliamentary seats, and its leadership will doubtless be part of the new government.

The new government’s policy is thus unlikely to be very reformist, especially as it rejoices in the support of the egregious Mayawati. In welcoming the election win, Prime Minister Singh indicated further areas where India’s public spending and transfer payments needed to be increased, with no suggestion that privatization or reining back the immense public-sector deficit were a priority. It’s thus likely that the Indian government will continue as an ever-increasing drag on the economy, with a funding crisis possible if public spending increases too much.

In such an environment, it is unlikely that India’s 8% average growth rate of the last five years can continue; the average of the next five years is much more likely to be in the 4% to 5% range, possibly with an acute foreign exchange crisis at some point. There’s no question that India’s stock market – trading at a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 20 – is expecting much better than this. That means it’s time to step back.

When – and How – to Make Your Play

Once the euphoria has dissipated, and the Indian market has dropped at least 30% from its current level, to below 10,000 on the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex Index, Indian shares will once again be worth looking at, if only because of the country’s immense long-term-growth potential – an upside great enough to overcome even the immense drag of most of its governmental shortcomings.

At that point, the heavy capital investors such as Tata Motors should be avoided, because of the unpredictability of capital availability in a capital market whose savings can be sucked into the government’s immense maw. Look instead at such non-capital-intensive exporters (the exchange rate is likely to remain relatively weak) as the software company Infosys Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq ADR: INFY), or global pharmaceuticals producer Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (NYSE ADR: RDY).

Both stocks are currently somewhat expensive, with Infosys trading at about 18 times the consensus analyst estimate for forward earnings, and Dr. Reddy’s roughly 14 times. But both stocks should be purchased for long-term growth during periods when investor enthusiasm for the Indian market has had a chance to cool down.

Source:  With India, Long-Term Profit Potential Trumps Near-Term Concerns

This from Money Morning:

In a surprise to many, India’s central bank has cut its base-lending rate four times since October, going from 9% to its current rate of 5.5%. After all, isn’t India’s economy growing nearly as fast as China’s? And isn’t that growth already being fueled by an unprecedented level of middle-class spending?

The answer to both questions is a resounding “yes.”

But there’s a pesky asterisk here – and that’s the global financial crisis, the cash drought that has sapped nearly every country directly through their banking systems, or indirectly through fluctuations in exchange rates and gyrations in revenue received from key trading partners.

And the Reserve Bank of India’s rate cut proved two things:

First, its new governor, Duvvuri Subbarao, is less afraid of inflation than he is a global slowdown.

“A 100-basis-point cut is an indirect admission that not all is ‘hunky dory’ with the India growth story,” Nandkumar Surti, chief financial officer at JPMorgan Asset Management India Pvt. Bank in Mumbai (JPM), told Bloomberg News. “One way to look at it is that the global problem has begun to affect us.”

For years, India doggedly raised rates to keep widespread inflation in check. It even went as far as subsidizing food and forcing the state-owned oil companies to sell gasoline to domestic consumers below cost.

And second, Subbarao believes India should taper its economic growth outlook for 2009.

This installment of “Outlook 2009,” report will chart India’s growth next year – its headwinds, tailwinds and possible factors that could turn the direction of either.

It will also reveal the two best ways investors can ride along with India’s economic growth, and take home profits from India’s bullet-proof industries – and in the process, perhaps even offset some of the losses they’ve incurred here in the U.S. market.

India’s Headwinds

India’s economy logged an annual growth rate of 7.6% for the quarter ended Sept. 30 – its slowest rate of growth in nearly four years.

India’s farm sector employs about 60% of India’s 1.14 billion people. That was great during last year’s run-up in commodity prices, but those prices have subsequently fallen, and so has the ag sector’s rate of growth – 2.7% in the quarter ended Sept. 30, which is well below the 4.7% pace of a year ago, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Manufacturing – also a powerful economic engine – has also stopped chugging as hard. That sector advanced 5.0% in the last year, a significant drop from the 9.2% growth from the same period the year before.

The global deceleration bears much of the blame for those drop-offs, as the United States far and away, remains India’s top trading partner.

But India is now dealing with a major share of homegrown problems – issues that have become ever more glaring as India’s economy grows in size.

The biggest problem of all: India’s domestic infrastructure is sorely deficient.

The country’s roads and highway systems are a mess, and its power grid is grossly insufficient for an economy of India’s size and rate of growth. That’s an observation that Money Morning guest columnist and well-known India-investment expert Karim Rahemtulla observed firsthand in India last year, when he lead an investor’s field trip around the country.

And while India has a prosperous and growing middle class, more than 200 million people living there are living in poverty. The government has taken many measures in the past decade to reduce poverty, but Rahemtulla says that the nation’s poor are “mostly against reform because they see little benefit from it.”

In a way, that, too, is an infrastructure issue. India’s poor don’t feel any kind of real connection to the country’s financial system. Indeed, many work day-by-day in the thousands of farming villages. A wave of government reform won’t affect them because they are living at such a far distance – physically, socially and culturally – from the parts of India that would benefit from any changes, new programs, or financial-stimulus efforts.

Even with those obstacles, the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Confederation of Indian Industry predict India will grow 7.4% to 7.8% in the 2008-2009 fiscal year.

But not everyone agrees with that assessment.

“Not going to happen,” Rahemtulla said. “There will be positive growth because India will reduce rates and devalue the rupee in order to stave off economic contraction which it can ill afford.”

But Rahemtulla was just as quick to credit the Reserve Bank of India for taking action as the global financial crisis spread across the world.

“They have explicitly stated they will aggressively promote fiscal and monetary stimulus to promote growth,” Rahemtulla said.

India’s Tailwinds

No question, the global financial crisis has crippled economic growth around the world. But the malaise – combined with the significantly reduced inflation that’s resulted from the downturn – has opened up a straightaway into which India can shift its cautionary policies, refuel its economic engine, and ultimately re-accelerate growth.

“Taking note of the downturn in the inflation rate, RBI has lowered the policy rate as well as the reserve requirements. RBI’s policy is now biased towards stimulating growth,” India’s former finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, said in reference to the steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India.

“If the rate of inflation continues to decline, the policy rates may also moderate and the bias in favor of growth may deepen,” he told economic editors during a meeting late last year, Reuters reported.

India’s annual inflation fell near a 10-year low of 6.38% in December, a dramatic drop from the 13% growth rate in August. The trend is expected to continue, with inflation slowing to 5% or less by March, Pronab Sen, secretary at the ministry of statistics and program implementation, told Reuters.

That could open a door for the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates further, encouraging banks to lend money. And though lower rates may weaken the rupee, Rahemtulla says that will make India’s exports more appealing – especially as countries around the world tighten their belts amid the global financial crisis.

Low inflation isn’t the only tailwind that’ll rebound India’s economy back to its high speed.

India’s overall economy sputtered, but a pair of critical sectors posted promising numbers: Construction is up 9.7% from a year earlier, while India’s service sector has advanced at a robust 10.8% in that same span.

Credit goes to India’s middle class, which, like China’s, is growing in both numbers and overall strength.

Also very promising: Only $1 billion of the Reserve Bank of India’s $510 billion loan portfolio is in toxic Western assets.

That explains why – at a time when the global turmoil has claimed several major U.S. banks – none of India’s banks have gone bust.

India is unmistakably frugal. And its monetary policy proves that it is willing to accept a reputation for being a stifler of growth – instead of being known as being clumsy, overzealous and even reckless, as many U.S. banks are now accused of being.

Two Ways to Play India… for Cheap

Like every major economy, India is falling short of previous economic forecasts in large part because of the global financial crisis.

But make no mistake: Next to China, India’s economy will grow four-to-five times faster than most of the world’s other major economies – many of which are stuck in recession.

For now, investors should target the companies in India that are internationally competitive and are active exporters. That’s because any budget or inflationary difficulties will probably be reflected in a weakening of the rupee, which will help countries exporting from India.

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (ADR:INFY) is India’s premier exporter of software. The company carries almost no debt, and its shares are trading at a current Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.6, with a dividend yield of 1.48%. That P/E is quite low for a company in a high-growth market such as software.

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (ADR:RDY) is India’s premier manufacturer of generic pharmaceuticals, and is positioned to benefit in the 2008-2012 period as many popular drugs lose their patent protection and are opened to international competition. In the near term, too, as household and corporate budgets tighten around the world, people will more likely opt for generic prescription drugs, instead of high-price name brands.

Dr. Reddy’s has moderate debt (about 50% of equity), and is trading at 19 times forward earnings – not at all pricey, given the high promise of the generic-drug sector. The stock also features a modest dividend yield of right around 1.0%.

Both stocks are down nearly 50% from their 52-week highs, suggesting value.

This is the eleventh installment of Money Morning’s”Outlook 2009” series, which looks at the global investing outlook for the New Year.

Source: India’s Economy Standing Firm Amid the Growing Global Financial Crisis

In concrete figures, of the world’s $11.8 trillion of manufacturing value added output expected to be produced in 2009, China will account for 17%, while the United States will account for 16%.

For investors, even those based in the United States, the implication is clear: a substantial part of any investor’s portfolio should be in China and any other countries where manufacturing is growing as a percentage of the world total.

China’s manufacturing share has been accelerating rapidly since 2000, when it accounted for only 7% of global value added. Back then, the United States accounted for around 25% of the total. China’s growth spurt in the last year has been caused not by any special acceleration in China’s growth, nor is it the product of a sudden collapse in the U.S. manufacturing economy. The decline in the dollar – and the rise of the Chinese renminbi against the dollar – is what has inflated the value of Chinese manufactured goods.

For the United States, economic theory suggests there is no need to panic. Most services have at least some component of local supply, so they cannot be outsourced easily overseas (the exceptions being such services as computer software or accounting). Hence, it is natural that richer countries will tend to specialize more and more in the service sector, while poorer countries become more devoted to manufacturing products that can be easily shipped around the globe.

Nevertheless, there are a number of moderately disturbing implications to this news. To the extent that Chinese or other poor-country manufacturers acquire additional capabilities by manufacturing products for Western use, they may become more competitive in the international market against Western companies. Research and development, in particular, require a deep understanding of the production process to be successful – an understanding that is difficult to acquire from a distant country.

For investors, the exciting opportunities are likely to arise in China, and in other low-wage manufacturing countries that are opening up to Western markets. There are also opportunities in countries, such as Taiwan, that have the ability to marry their own technological capabilities with low wage manufacturing in China or elsewhere in Asia.

To take advantage of this trend, you might look at the following companies, all of which stand to benefit from the move of global manufacturing to China and other low-wage economies:

• Acer Incorporated can be bought through London depositary receipts (LSE: ACID), which are liquid and quoted in dollars. Acer became the world’s third largest manufacturer of personal computers after buying Gateway last year. It manufactures in cheap-labor China, but has top quality Taiwanese research and design and good relations with Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (ADR: TSM), the world’s largest chip manufacturer. Acer yields 12% on a historic basis, but some of that relates to a special dividend on real estate profits; on the basis of its regular dividend its yield is about 7%. Its forward Price/Earnings ratio is 11.

• Dr. Reddy’s Laboratory Ltd. (ADR: RDY) is India’s premier manufacturer of generic pharmaceuticals, poised to benefit in the 2008 – 2012 period as many popular drugs lose their patent protection and are opened to international competition. It has moderate debt, about 50% of equity, and is also selling at a multiple of 17 times earnings to March 2009, with a dividend yield of only 0.8%. Again, the relatively high rating reflects the growth potential in Dr. Reddy’s global business, which benefits from low cost and high quality in India.

• Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ADR: ACH) is an integrated aluminum smelter focused on the Chinese market. It thus benefits from the rapid growth of Chinese manufacturing, as well as rising commodity prices generally. ACH is currently trading at a very reasonable P/E ratio of 7.6 times estimated 2008 earnings, with a dividend yield of 3.3%.

Source: China Points the Way to Profits as the New Global Manufacturing Leader

No doubt, both countries’ markets are suffering this year, with China’s Shanghai A Index down 50%, and India’s Sensex Index down 25%. It’s no secret that India is struggling with both a growing budget deficit and mounting inflationary pressure. But China has problems too – it’s just hiding them under the carpet until the Olympics are over.

That’s why, for me at least, the investment decision is clear – I’ll buy the country whose problems are out in the open and already reflected in stock prices.

China’s Pending Credit Crunch

China’s inflation has been quiescent recently. It declined from 8.7% year-over-year in February, to 7.1% in June, taking it below the People’s Bank of China’s (PBC) one-year lending rate of 7.47%. Since the principal driver of global inflation has been the sharp run-up in energy and commodity prices, China’s inflation moderation is anomalous.

Apart from any figure-fudging in the run-up to the Olympics, China’s moderating inflation can be explained by increased state controls and subsidies. Rice and wheat prices have been controlled only since January, while energy subsidies have increased in 2008, from $22 billion to $40 billion, as the country holds petrol prices down to two thirds the U.S. level – around $2.85 per gallon in Beijing.

Those effects alone would suppress reported inflation by 3%-4%.

China has also used every effort to produce a quiescent population and clean air for the Olympics –1 million cars have been banned from Beijing streets for three months, for example. But once the Olympics are over, those Herculean efforts will no longer be necessary. We can then expect an easing of food price controls (which themselves require subsidies to bail out farmers) and a sharp reduction in energy subsidies. At that point, it seems inevitable that reported inflation will soar into double digits.

The PBC’s lending rate of 7.47% and deposit rate of 3.33% will then be highly inflationary. It will also provide substantial disincentives to saving. Since the Chinese authorities appear to understand the role of interest rates in controlling inflation, rates will no doubt be raised sharply, so that at least the lending rate will be in double digits, along with inflation.

A post-Olympic credit crunch will be the result, but it won’t affect the largest government-controlled companies. They will be bailed out if they run into difficulty. However, the crunch will be particularly damaging to small businesses, as well as the true private sector.

The Devil You Know vs. the Devil You Don’t

In India, on the other hand, wholesale inflation rose from 7% in March to almost 12% in July. The Reserve Bank of India is also running negative real interest rates; they are currently about 8% nominal.

As in China, the Indian government is subsidising food and forcing the state-owned oil companies to sell gasoline to domestic consumers below cost. The result has been an explosion in the Indian budget deficit, which is thought by many observers to exceed 10% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the fiscal year to March 2009.

Both China and India are dealing with excessive inflation, interest rates that are too low, and budgets that are out of balance (though China’s figures are so opaque one cannot be sure of the true position). Falling oil prices could help the inflation position in both countries, but it is unlikely that oil prices will fall enough to restore stability in either.

The difference between the two countries is that China is still under the impression that its inflation is a moderate and controlled problem, whereas India has no such illusions.

For this reason, I would be more tempted by an Indian investment in the current market than by a Chinese one.

When investing in India, it is advisable to focus on companies that are internationally competitive and active exporters, rather than looking at the domestic market. That’s because any budget or inflationary difficulties will probably be reflected in a weakening of the rupee, which will help exporting companies. It is also preferable to look for companies with, at most, moderate leverage, which are less likely to suffer from a banking squeeze.

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (ADR: INFY) is India’s premier exporter of software, with almost no debt, that is currently trading at about 17 times earnings to March 2009, with a dividend yield of 1.9%. That high rating reflects the growth potential of Infosys’ business sector, in the context of which it is reasonable.

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (ADR: RDY) is India’s premier manufacturer of generic pharmaceuticals, poised to benefit in the 2008 – 2012 period as many popular drugs lose their patent protection and are opened to international competition. It has moderate debt, about 50% of equity, and is also selling at a multiple of 17 times earnings to March 2009, with a dividend yield of only 0.8%. Again, the relatively high rating reflects the growth potential in Dr. Reddy’s global business.

Source: India’s Reliability Provides a Razor Thin Edge Over China

And we concur: The BRICs are four markets investors need to carefully consider as places to put some of their money.

That’s why we here at Money Morning developed “The BRIC Report,” a new feature in which we’ll periodically update you on the latest developments in each of the BRIC economies and stock markets, and highlight some BRIC-related companies you might want to look at.
In Part I of this report, we analyzed Brazil and Russia. Here in Part II, we examine India and China.

India Intrigue

Given that its stock market is down 23% this year, you’re probably surprised to hear that India is my favorite of the BRIC economies. Even worse: India’s torrid economic growth is throttling back a bit, and there are signs of a credit crunch.

But investors need to hear the proverbial “rest of the story.” You see: If India had no problems, its stock market would be trading at 40 times earnings – and not 18 times earnings, as it is now. In other words, India could well represent a “double” for investors with the courage to buy in now and stay the course.

Without a doubt India remains one of the world’s great long-term growth plays, and investors today are likely getting in on the ground floor of a major long-term bull market.

India’s economic growth was 9% in 2007, and will be around 8% in 2008, so the overall market seems reasonably valued at the current multiple of 18. If India can get its political and economic houses in order, it has some very real prospects for a couple of generations of rapid growth before living standards start to approach the West and growth rates slow.

In the short-run, however, there are some potential pitfalls to be aware of. The current Indian government, in office since 2004, is a coalition between the Congress Party, which had ruled India for most of the period since independence without any great success, and the anti-market Communists. Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is a moderate, the government has seen India’s economic emergence as an opportunity to fund favorite projects and social programs.

The budget for the current fiscal year (ending next March) proposes an 18% spending increase, and that’s after spending rose 24% last year. The state budget deficit (federal plus local) is around 7% of gross domestic product; in any kind of recession, that could easily spike to the 10% of GDP level at which deficits become difficult to finance.

There is hope on the horizon: An election is due in May 2009, at latest, and the center-right opposition is currently leading in the opinion polls. But wise investors know better than to base their investment plan on something as uncertain as that.

India’s other big problem is inflation, currently running at 8% per annum, which is higher than short-term interest rates. Higher commodity and energy prices have affected India as they have other countries; India’s position is made more difficult by the poverty of much of the population.

The Indian government has restricted exports of rice and has subsidized other foods and gasoline (the latter makes no sense socially since automobiles are largely owned by the middle classes).

Needless to say, these subsidies and restrictions make the budget deficit worse, and will pose an additional problem when they are lifted and newly unfettered consumer prices soar in response.

Growth has now acquired huge momentum, and any conceivable Indian government will do no more than slow it temporarily. Furthermore, the economics of the contracted-out customer support and manufacturing services that India has built into a national mainstay – in the era of globalization and the Internet – is so compelling that it will inevitably continue to produce huge profits for decades to come. The question is not:
“Should I invest in India?” It’s actually: “How can I afford to ignore India?”

And the answer is: You can’t.

Stocks to consider would include Infosys Technologies Ltd. (ADR: INFY), the Bangalore-based software giant, which seems pretty invulnerable to Indian or global recession and is selling at a fairly reasonable 19 times current earnings and 20 times next year’s earnings.

Another possibility is the pharmaceutical company Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (ADR: RDY), a major generic drugs manufacturer that can expect to benefit from the expiration of many U.S. pharmaceutical patents in the next five years, and carries a fairly reasonable forward P/E ratio of 23.

Finally, you might consider India carmaker Tata Motors Ltd. (ADR: TTM), whose shares currently trade at about 8.5 times earnings. In the luxury end of the market, Tata recently bought Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motor Co. (F). And at the bottom end, Tata has grabbed global headlines with its $2,500 Nano, a car that’s 40% cheaper than anything else on the world market.

Charged Up Over China

As we’ve pointed out repeatedly, China is a huge opportunity: It’s already the third-largest economy in the world after the United States and Japan, and it quite possibly could be the world’s largest by 2025. Its stated growth rate is even higher than India’s, although Chinese economic statistics are pretty suspect. Nevertheless, apart from the qualms raised by the Chinese market’s six-fold increase in 2006-07, and current high valuations, there are significant weaknesses that should not be ignored.

The two biggest: China’s banking system and its high rate of inflation.

China’s banks were for years used as a piggy bank for state-operated industries, many of them major money-losers and some that were technically bankrupt. Instead of the state recording budget deficits by subsidizing rubbish, the banks would lend the money to the bad companies, recording them as current loans. The result was a mountain of bad debt in the Chinese banking system. Back in May 2006, Ernst & Young estimated the bad debt had reached $911 billion (an estimate Ernst and Young was forced to withdraw; after all, they do have a substantial auditing business in that country!).

Encouragingly, Chinese authorities are beginning to attack this problem: An estimated $130 billion of the country’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund has been used to recapitalize parts of the banking system. Since China has $1.68 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, and the bad debts are presumably still only $1 trillion or so, China does have the financial wherewithal to solve the problem. However, using FX reserves to recapitalize the banks would be highly inflationary, providing an almost 50% increase in the money supply.

That brings us to the next problem: Inflation, which is rising sharply. China’s official inflation rate for the year ending in May is 8.3%, but the actual inflation rate is believed to be much higher.

China’s yuan has been allowed to appreciate against the dollar to combat this, but the real need is for higher interest rates, which are still below the inflation rate. It seems inevitable that China will suffer some kind of tight money crisis, in which the banking system is recapitalized and inflation conquered, while the real economy suffers accordingly. However, such a crisis has appeared inevitable for several years now, and it hasn’t happened yet.

Whether or not China suffers a short-term crunch, its long-term prospects are excellent. Its stock market remains highly illiquid, since much of the market capitalization represents state controlled companies, of which only a small portion are publicly traded. Given the problems in the banking system, financial services should be avoided, while P/E ratios in many other sectors are far above what would be considered appropriate in the West. Nevertheless, with the 30% fall in the Chinese market since last November, there are now some bargains to be found.

• CNOOC Ltd. (ADR: CEO), China’s major international oil company, is selling at a P/E ratio of about 15. Most of its exploration activity is concentrated in China’s offshore region, but it also has operations in Australia, Indonesia and Africa. CNOOC is central to China’ search for oil resources, and critical to its future growth.
• Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADR: YZC), China’s largest coal miner, is rapidly ramping up production to meet soaring worldwide demand for coal: China alone is commissioning one new coal-fired power station per week. Selling at 17 times current earnings but only 12 times forward earnings, Yanzhou is benefiting from soaring coal prices, as well as rocketing demand.

Both CNOOC and Yanzhou are major, state-controlled behemoths. For a venture into China’s true private sector, consider a look at a medium-sized company that is active in generic pharmaceuticals in what is potentially a huge market in China for such products. That company is Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SCR). Its shares are currently trading at about 15 times current earnings.

[Editor’s Note: Part I of this “Special Report” ran both on Friday and yesterday.]

By Martin Hutchinson
Contributing Editor

Source: Special Report: Hit the BRICs for a Global-Investing Double Play

India is suffering high inflation, its growth is slowing and there are signs that a credit crunch is about to hit. But this can work to the advantage of investors. Without these problems, India’s stock market would be trading at 40 times earnings – and not 18 times earnings, as it is now.

Martin says that buy buying into India now, investors are likely getting in on the ground floor of a major long-term bull market. And he has selected three stocks most likely to benefit from the country’s growth potential…

India’s economic growth was 9% in 2007, and will be around 8% in 2008, so the overall market seems reasonably valued at the current multiple of 18. If India can get its political and economic houses in order, it has some very real prospects for a couple of generations of rapid growth before living standards start to approach the West and growth rates slow.

In the short-run, however, there are some potential pitfalls to be aware of. The current Indian government, in office since 2004, is a coalition between the Congress Party, which had ruled India for most of the period since independence without any great success, and the anti-market Communists. Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is a moderate, the government has seen India’s economic emergence as an opportunity to fund favorite projects and social programs.

The budget for the current fiscal year (ending next March) proposes an 18% spending increase, and that’s after spending rose 24% last year. The state budget deficit (federal plus local) is around 7% of gross domestic product; in any kind of recession, that could easily spike to the 10% of GDP level at which deficits become difficult to finance.

There is hope on the horizon: An election is due in May 2009, at latest, and the center-right opposition is currently leading in the opinion polls. But wise investors know better than to base their investment plan on something as uncertain as that.

India’s other big problem is inflation, currently running at 8% per annum, which is higher than short-term interest rates. Higher commodity and energy prices have affected India as they have other countries; India’s position is made more difficult by the poverty of much of the population.

The Indian government has restricted exports of rice and has subsidized other foods and gasoline (the latter makes no sense socially since automobiles are largely owned by the middle classes).

Needless to say, these subsidies and restrictions make the budget deficit worse, and will pose an additional problem when they are lifted and newly unfettered consumer prices soar in response.

Growth has now acquired huge momentum, and any conceivable Indian government will do no more than slow it temporarily. Furthermore, the economics of the contracted-out customer support and manufacturing services that India has built into a national mainstay – in the era of globalization and the Internet – is so compelling that it will inevitably continue to produce huge profits for decades to come. The question is not:
“Should I invest in India?”  It’s actually: “How can I afford to ignore India?”

And the answer is: You can’t.

Stocks to consider would include Infosys Technologies Ltd. (ADR:INFY), the Bangalore-based software giant, which seems pretty invulnerable to Indian or global recession and is selling at a fairly reasonable 19 times current earnings and 20 times next year’s earnings.

Another possibility is the pharmaceutical company Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (ADR:RDY), a major generic drugs manufacturer that can expect to benefit from the expiration of many U.S. pharmaceutical patents in the next five years, and carries a fairly reasonable forward P/E ratio of 23.

Finally, you might consider India carmaker Tata Motors Ltd. (ADR:TTM), whose shares currently trade at about 8.5 times earnings. In the luxury end of the market, Tata recently bought Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F). And at the bottom end, Tata has grabbed global headlines with its $2,500 Nano, a car that’s 40% cheaper than anything else on the world market.

What’s tipping us off? The so-called Price/Earnings-to- Growth ratio, better known to investors as the “PEG” ratio.

Let me explain …

One of the most popular stock valuations is the Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio. If you take that calculation one step further and include a stock’s expected growth rate you hit on the P/E-to-growth ratio, or PEG ratio.

Analysts have been using PEG ratios for years, now, to pick undervalued stocks, but now you also can use that same ratio to determine which countries are trading at good value.

A recent Bespoke Investment Group report used the popular PEG ratio to identify which country’s stocks are currently undervalued.

“Late last year, we began performing this analysis on countries to get a better comparison of the valuations of both developed and emerging markets,” the B.I.G. Tips report read. “To do this, we divide the country’s [gross domestic product] growth estimate into the estimated P/E ratio of its major stock market index.”

Like an individual security’s PEG ratio, the lower the ratio, the more undervalued the stock.

The top-three spots on that list go to Russia (1.37), China (1.91) and India (2.06). Brazil clocks in at sixth with 2.80. Money Morning readers may recognize them as member of the “BRIC” nations – a term coined by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) in 2003 identifying rapidly growing emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China). [For a complete listing of the PEG ratios of the respective countries, please see the chart below.]

Rounding out the top six are Malaysia (2.37) and South Korea (2.66), the latter of which is another investing favorite of both Money Morning and Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B).

The United States, on the other hand, comes in near the bottom with an estimated PEG ratio for 2008 of 11.39.

When using the calculations to make investment picks, it’s important to remember that both the P/E ratio and the 2008 GDP growth are only estimates. Still, it’s easy to see how fast-growing economies have the leg up on more mature markets such as Japan and the United States.

How to Play the PEG for Profits

One of the easiest ways for U.S. investors to cash in on a foreign country’s expected stock market growth is with an American-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) or exchange-traded note (ETN) that mirrors a foreign stock market index.

For the BRICs, you could try the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ), the Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), the Barclays IPath India Index ETN (INP), or the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI).

If you prefer to stick to individual securities:

Russia: OAO Gazprom (OTC: OGZPY), the state-owned natural gas monopoly with ambitions to control Western Europe’s gas supplies.

Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY), the other obvious Russian heavyweight, is the largest state-controlled oil company.

China: A terrific way to play China is with the Region Opportunity Fund (USCOX), a mutual fund run by San Antonio-based U.S. Global Investors Inc. (GROW). Indeed, U.S. Global, itself, is a pretty good play on international growth. It manages some of the best emerging-market funds, and natural-resources funds, in the business. As global growth fuels global investments – and it will – U.S. global will see more money pour into its funds, boosting the management fees it collects, as well as its profits and stock price.

India: One of India’s titans is Tata Motors Ltd. (TTM), which recently sealed both ends of the consumer automotive spectrum with its forthcoming $2,500 Nano and its recent $2.3 billion acquisition of the Jaguar and Land Rover brands.

Another is option could be the pharmaceutical company Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (RDY). As many U.S. pharmaceutical patents expire in the next five years, this major generic-drugs manufacturer can expect to benefit.

South Korea: Back in October 2007, Buffett took a 4% stake in this country’s Number One steelmaker, POSCO Ltd. (PKX). Studies have shown that following Buffett’s investment moves, even months after the fact can be the pathway to profits.

Brazil: Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, now referred to only as Vale (RIO), is an iron-ore company with ancillary operations in gold, nickel, copper and other metals. It’s one of the true global blue chips, with a market capitalization of almost $200 billion.

Another Brazilian firm worth a look is Petrobras (PBR). It’s one of the few emerging market oil companies with access to modern technology – and the willingness to work with the oil majors.

Source: Popular Stock Indicator Tells Investors to Hit the BRICs