As usual in Washington, it’s “Do as I say, not as I do.” While Ben Bernanke is talking up the U.S. economy, Congress and the IRS are scrambling to stop another real estate collapse.

I monitor a chart on a website that almost no economic forecaster pays any attention to. The chart has indicated a remarkable shift toward economic optimism. It has indicated that the American economy will not fall into recession this year. This shift has taken place in the last three weeks.