Yet the stocks of real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are popular among income-oriented retail investors, are still trading at high enough levels that discount just a garden-variety recession in commercial real estate. REITs were designed to invest in portfolios of rental properties, and generally pay no corporate income taxes if they distribute at least 90% of their profits as dividends to their shareholders.

REITs were designed to thrive in an environment of steadily rising property values and rents. But in this ice age for commercial real estate, the REIT business model will cease to function properly; a REIT’s tax-free status doesn’t allow it to retain much excess capital during lean times. Since REITs pay out all their earnings, they cannot grow without taking on more debt. During the boom, a REIT strategy encompassing growth, leverage, and acquisitions was a virtuous cycle that led to juicy dividends and soaring stocks. But in this bust phase, the REIT business model has morphed into a vicious cycle of dividend cuts, dilutive equity offerings, debt offerings at double-digit interest rates, and bankruptcies.

The REITs that levered up and grew too fast at the peak will go to zero in bankruptcy. Others could fall into the low single digits by year-end as the market anticipates that creditors will take title to many properties in 2009 and 2010. These developments would push the value of the REIT Index dramatically lower.

The REIT sector is woefully undercapitalized — just as the big banks were last year. If you mark the value of commercial real estate to market, it tells you that REIT debt in all its forms — commercial mortgages, unsecured notes, secured lines of credit – is much too burdensome. Equity cushions that seemed adequate at the commercial property market peak are now thin. REITs don’t have to mark their assets to market each quarter like investment banks. But you can be sure that before committing a single penny to a secondary offering of REIT stock, institutional investors will mark property portfolios to market.

Marking property to market will result in many underwater commercial properties. This is critically important because the combination of underwater properties (insolvency) and imminent debt maturities (illiquidity) tends to wipe out equity. The maturities over the next five years are staggering, and these debts were sloppily underwritten near the peak of the credit bubble. According to Goldman Sachs research, roughly $1.6 trillion in commercial real estate debt is coming due 2009-2013.

Lenders will not be willing to refinance mortgages in situations where mortgage debt exceeds the value of the property — so-called “underwater” properties. In order for all of these $1.6 trillion in loans to qualify for refinancing, hundreds of billions in new equity will need to be injected into properties. This much new equity capital dedicated to commercial property ownership will not exist in the investing environment of 2009-2013. So many of these loans will default.

In a scenario of paying off staggering debt loads under stress, the claims of common shareholders are either diluted or wiped out completely. This is the scenario facing General Growth Properties, for example, and shareholders will be lucky to recover anything. You can find shades of the General Growth saga throughout the REIT space.

Bulls argue that REIT stocks are cheap enough to buy. After all, they’ve declined to the point that you’d be buying ownership stakes in commercial real estate at prices well below peak values. Also, the high dividend yields already reflect plenty of pessimism.

What is the credit market’s response to REIT bulls? Creditors will take title to many properties in bankruptcy, and dividends will be paid mostly in new shares of REIT stock, rather than cash. I side with the credit markets.

A review of the aggregate REIT balance sheet — and the delusional commercial real estate purchases during the 2006-2007 peak — will tell you that this won’t be a garden-variety bear market in REITs. Supply of retail, office, hotel, and industrial space will greatly exceed demand for several years. In most cases, tenants will have the upper hand in lease renegotiations. This bear market, which is still in its early stages, will go down as the worst REIT bear market in history.

So will the TALF come to the rescue? Wasn’t the Federal Reserve’s “term asset-backed securities loan facility” (TALF) designed in part to mitigate the systemic damage from the time bombs ticking inside of CMBS? A primary reason for the recent rally in REIT shares is hope that the TALF will help restore value to equity of the most-indebted REITs by loosening up lending for commercial mortgages. The Dow Jones U.S. real estate index rallied from an intraday low of 80 in early March to a recent 130. But this REIT rally is based on hope, rather than strong fundamental evidence.

The Fed does not restore equity value to leveraged financial companies sitting on toxic assets; it merely tries to prevent stressed borrowers from unwinding positions too quickly. Look at how little equity value the Fed’s unprecedented lending facilities salvaged for Citigroup shareholders. TALF will do little to preserve equity value for highly indebted REITs. The Fed did not eat the losses on Lehman Bros.’ garbage securities, nor will the Fed or the Treasury eat losses that must be first absorbed by shareholders of overleveraged REITs.

Plus, potential limits on executive pay could limit interest in TALF participation. Special Inspector General Neil Barofsky said in a recently published report that executives involved with the TALF program “could be subject to the executive compensation restrictions.” Whether or not compensation restrictions are enacted as part of TALF, the mere threat of capricious rule changes and taxes imposed by Congress and the administration will scare many potential managers away from TALF.

While there are certainly opportunities to be had in this market, as I see it, REITs aren’t one of them.

Source: Sell REITs, Part II

REITs are still in the early stages of a huge deleveraging cycle that will last for years, which means that the REITs that concentrate on commercial real estate may be a deceptively dangerous asset class.

Our story begins with the massive credit bubble – and related housing bubble – of the last several years. These twin bubbles powered a dramatic rise in consumer spending. Some significant portion of commercial real estate sprouted up to serve and satisfy this artificial demand. From the top to bottom of the U.S. economy, easy access to credit during the last several years powered excess consumption – and a frenzy of knock-on commercial ventures.

Accordingly, shopping boutiques popped up everywhere, along with restaurants, real estate offices, home-furnishing stores, art galleries, etc. All of these enterprises unwittingly relied on credit-fueled demand, and believed that this demand was “normal.”

But now that credit has disappeared from the U.S. economy, thousands of businesses are discovering that they cannot survive the new normal – the one that relies on actual paychecks and savings, NOT credit. And so, one by one, business doors are closing and the empty commercial spaces are piling up.

“The severity of the recession is turning some malls that were once viewed as viable into potential casualties,” the Wall Street Journal recently observed. “‘Any mall that’s sitting on life support is probably going to get its plug pulled as the economy stalls,’ says Michael Glimcher, chairman and CEO of Glimcher Realty Trust, which owns 23 U.S. properties, including Eastland Mall in Charlotte.”

The distress in the commercial real estate market would be serious, even if credit were still flowing freely. But credit is contracting, which means that commercial real estate is in especially dire circumstances. Refinancing commercial properties has become an extremely difficult task. Without the ability to refinance – or to sell at a profitable level – properties will continue to stumble into foreclosure and liquidation, which will put continuous pressure on property values.

Owners of underwater properties will have to either default and hand the title over to the lender, or they’ll have to inject an impractically large amount of new equity into the property to qualify for refinancing. And in these cases, we are talking about face-to-face negotiations between borrowers and lenders. In the modern “securitized” economy, face-to-face negotiations have become as rare and quaint a concept as the corner malt shop. In the modern economy, most mortgages are sliced and diced into unrecognizable portions of various mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Think of securitization this way: Image your pet pig ran away from home and stumbled into a sausage factory. If you searched for your pig at the end of the sausage production line, you probably couldn’t find him. He’d be there alright, but not in a form you would recognize. He is there; but he is now everywhere. So is your mortgage.

Securitization is, therefore, a very toxic aspect of this particular commercial real estate bust. Simply stated, securitized mortgage structures are not designed to function in our current environment — one with falling collateral values and soaring defaults. Let me highlight the loan restructuring challenge ahead for troubled commercial property owners and their lenders.

Take just one example of evaporating equity in commercial properties. It shows why stressed property owners cannot easily renegotiate terms with their lenders. A few weeks ago, Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. defaulted on its mortgage on W San Diego hotel. Sunstone bought the W for $96 million in 2006. The transaction was financed by a $65 million mortgage that was sliced, diced, and sold into the commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) market. The W’s value is now below the face amount of the mortgage, so Sunstone will likely write its equity down to zero and turn the deed for the W (i.e., the mortgage collateral) over to creditors in order to eliminate its mortgage obligation.

Sunstone defaulted when it skipped its June 1 payment on the W hotel’s mortgage. Thus, Sunstone basically invited its servicer, Centerline Servicing, to foreclose on the hotel. Centerline represents the interests of the lenders, who are spread throughout the ownership structure of CMBS. Without the chance to renegotiate, the only real option is for lenders to foreclose and auction off collateral. Even worse, if Centerline were to approach the lenders about restructuring the mortgage, the lenders would have different objectives — some would want to liquidate collateral to get paid, while others would prefer to renegotiate and hope for a rebound in collateral value. This is known in the securitization business as “tranche warfare.”

From a legal standpoint, borrowers are too far away from ultimate lenders. The complex legal structure of CMBS practically guarantees that sensible loan restructurings, including debt-for-equity swaps, are very difficult.

Now apply this situation to hundreds of other properties around the U.S., and you can see how securitization (CMBS) practically eliminates the potential for property owners to meet with their creditors and renegotiate. Private sector creditors who want to participate in fire sales and in very attractive loans are waiting for property to fall to more reasonable levels first. Banks are not going to refinance commercial mortgages coming due on properties that are down 50% from peak values, and no equity is left. This means that the foreclosure market will dominate the overall market, pushing values for every comparable property down even more.

There will not be any legitimate bottom in the REIT market until there is a bottom in the prices of commercial real estate mortgages. The smart institutional money will initiate its investment in real estate by buying the distressed mortgages of attractive properties, NOT by buying REIT shares. These investors will want to buy claims on commercial property market that are high up in the capital structure, not gamble on equity in properties, which may be worth a fraction of peak values — or zero. That’s why I’m monitoring transactions in the commercial real estate debt markets, looking for signs of a true bottom.

The “bottom” we saw in early March was almost entirely due to the Fed’s extraordinary commitment to print money in an attempt to prop up old bubbles. This caused a temporary rally in CMBS and REITs. The most stressed REITs used this as an opportunity to de-lever their balance sheets just a smidge by flooding the market with new shares. With the window for REIT secondary offerings closing, by fall we should see another leg down in the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.

The real buyers for CMBS and commercial property are professional investors – not the Fed or taxpayers. By and large, these professionals are waiting for bargains, with bids far below the current market.

So should you.

Source: Sell REITs

REITs may appear cheap, but they are very dangerous to hold right now. A basic tenet of corporate finance is that a company or a sector is only creating value for shareholders if its return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeds its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). If its WACC exceeds its ROIC, it is destroying value. This describes the situation facing the REIT sector for the next few years.

Most REITs cannot float unsecured debt at anything less than 10% or 12%, so their cost of capital is high and rising. At the same time, due to the glut of supply in commercial real estate supply, and waning demand from stressed tenants, the returns on incremental investment in new capacity are very low — possibly negative.

Summing it all up: REITs will be destroying shareholder value until supply and demand for commercial real estate reaches equilibrium. The free market is screaming as loudly as it can that millions of square feet of capacity need to be absorbed or eliminated over the next several years in order for the surviving REITs to have a chance at generating respectable returns on capital.

This process has barely even begun, after the biggest lending binge in the history of commercial real estate. It will last a long time. The lending binge ensured that a large swathe of REITs will not make it to see the next commercial real estate up-cycle, which is still several years away at minimum. The title to many properties will go back to creditors in bankruptcy, and auctions will bring down asset values across the sector until they are cheap enough to earn respectable returns in a weak rental environment.

Another example of stress surfaced earlier this week. The auction to settle credit default swaps related to the General Growth Properties bankruptcy indicates serious pain to come for mall REIT owners: GGP’s senior loans effectively liquidated for 44 cents on the dollar! This means that lenders are demanding extreme discounts and high yields to hold debts secured by mall collateral. This isn’t good news for peers like Kimco (NYSE: KIM) and Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG).

Another argument I’ve seen lately is that REITs will be a good inflation hedge if you buy them at these prices. This is an overly simplistic view of Fed-created inflation and its ultimate symptoms.

Fed Chairman Bernanke can debase the dollar all he wants, but most of the new dollars will act to push up the prices of goods and services in sectors with relatively tight capacity. Mostly, this translates into lower living standards for the average American — an echo of the 1970s, only without the real estate appreciation.

The Fed’s inflation will find its way into tangible assets like gold and silver, oil and gas, uranium ore, farmland, potash mines, and any other commodity China needs to import. Conversely, the fed’s inflation will NOT find its way into the pricing of American shopping malls, which arre in a condition of extreme oversupply.

Over time, the capacity to supply light, sweet oil to the global economy will be far tighter than the capacity to supply American retailers with real estate in malls. Demand for oil will be far more resilient than the U.S.-centric consensus expects, while demand for discretionary items — like “Color Fiend Neon Green Hair Spray” at Hot Topic (this product actually exists) — will fluctuate up and down, but generally head lower. Rising prices for several necessary goods and services will crowd out discretionary spending in many family budgets.

Inflation does not re-inflate old bubbles — especially in the case of residential and commercial real estate. It will only slow the previously violent deleveraging process.

On a related note, it was a breath of fresh air to hear Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates interviewed on Bloomberg Radio recently. (You can find a link to download an mp3 of the 17-minute interview here). Davidowitz has decades of in-the-trenches experience in retail consulting and analysis. Rarely do you find an industry analyst express an informed opinion so forcefully in the mainstream financial media. I highly recommend listening to the interview for an overview of how the retail and commercial real estate business will evolve in the coming quarters.

A preview: It ain’t good.

This from Eric Fry:

“Success is never final. But failure can be,” Bill Parcels, the former NFL coach, once observed. Investors in real estate investment rusts (REITs) might want to pay particular attention to this truism.

REITs, as the name suggests, invest in real estate of various types. But what the name does not suggest is that REITs usually utilize leverage in their pursuit of investment returns. Leverage, as many investors learned during the last 12 months, is fun on the way up, but potentially fatal on the way down (unless you happen to be one of America’s 19 largest financial institutions).

At the moment, the REIT industry finds itself squarely in the middle of the “way down” phase – both because asset values are plummeting and because interest rates are climbing. Just yesterday, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes kissed 4%, which means that the 10-year yield has nearly doubled since the start of this year!

When long-term interest rates rise this dramatically and rapidly, many different industries suffer. But few industries suffer as much as the commercial real estate industry. Even in the best of times, rising interest rates increases the cost of capital, while also undermining the value of commercial real estate assets. In the worst of times – or even in less-good times – rising rates can produce catastrophic consequences.

Today’s commercial real estate market was distressed, even before rates starting rising. The problem, in a nutshell, was excess capacity. During the last several years, America constructed shopping malls and office buildings to satisfy the excess, phony demand that easy credit produced. But now that home equity loans and other readily available forms of credit have disappeared, so has the phony demand.

The unfortunate result: a glut of shopping malls, office buildings and hotel/motel properties.

“Vacancies are definitely rising across the commercial real estate market,” observed hedge fund manager, Jason Stock, at last month’s Value Investing Congress in Pasadena, California. “You’ve got office vacancies well over 15%. We think those are going to approach 25% before this is over.”

Stock and his partner, Will Waller, oversee the M3 Fund, a hedge fund that invests solely in the banking sector. Stock and Waller claim they are finding a number of attractive stocks to buy. Nevertheless, they remain very anxious about the health of the overall banking sector. In particular, they fear that commercial loan defaults will skyrocket from current levels, causing a large number of banks to fail during the next two years.

“So far this year there’s been just over 30 bank failures,” Stock reported in early May. “We expect they’ll be roughly 150 bank failures by the end of the year. And we would actually expect that number should be significantly higher.

Stock continued:

“Every Friday night (we jokingly call it ‘death watch,’ because that’s when you get the notices of the banks that have failed [from the FDIC]), when we look at the banks that are coming across as failures, we’ll say to ourselves, ‘Geez, that bank is a lot better off than 20, 30, 40 banks that we can think of. The regulators right now are completely overwhelmed. You have to have people to close down banks. And it’s not a very quick and easy process. It takes a fair bit of manpower. So if the regulators had the staffing to do it, there are definitely 50 to 100 banks that you could say, ‘This Friday we are going to go in and close all these banks down.’ So it’ll just be a matter of time before that pace picks up.”

In last month’s letter to their investors, Stock and Waller reiterated their skeptical outlook:

“The Government’s release of the ‘stress test’ results on May 7th was a key driver of the rally in large bank stocks. The results indicated that nine of the 19 firms have adequate capital under the test’s most adverse scenario…In our opinion, this ‘stress test’ was in no way stressful and could more accurately be compared to a beach vacation in Hawaii where the weather forecast had a 10% chance of afternoon showers.

“The ‘worst case’ scenarios that the Government utilized in this test included unemployment reaching 8.9% in 2009 and 10.3% in 2010 (as of May 31, 2009 the unemployment rate was 9.4%), and GDP growth of .50% in 2010. We believe unemployment could easily exceed 10.3% and that it is absurd to use a positive number as a worst case scenario for GDP in 2010. This ‘stress test’ created a false sense of stability in the banking sector and created a historic opportunity for banks to raise capital at significantly inflated valuations…While extremely beneficial to the banks, we believe the investors who participated in these offerings will be choking on these investments over the upcoming months.”

Contradicting the sanguine conclusions of the stress tests, Stock and Waller point out, “The Federal Reserve chimed in with an alarming report on first quarter loan delinquency rates at commercial banks. Total loan and lease delinquencies increased by 96 basis points, a 20.7% increase in only one quarter (from 4.6% to 5.6%)…We maintain our bearish outlook…we believe this bear market rally is unsustainable and that fundamental trends for banks are negative…”

Your California editor concurs, which is why he does not hesitate to say that most bank stocks are better sold than bought at their new and improved “recovery prices.” Similarly, most REITs are better sold than bought.

Source: Real Estate Investment (Dis)Trusts

Editors Note: Dan Amoss appears courtesy of today’s Rude Awakening.

Arriba! Cinco de Mayo heralds big news for the S&P 500 this morning:

After a manic 36% bounce from its March lows, the S&P 500 has turned positive for the year. It’s now sitting on a whopping 0.4% gain, thank you very much.

But before you down the Cuervo Gold and shimmy onto the parquet for a hat dance… consider this:
The resurgence in S&P 500 is being driven by only three sectors: Consumer discretionary, materials and tech. See for yourself.

It’s hard to believe in “bull market” when two-thirds of the players are in the red.

We’re taking a closer look at tech, but for the time being — as if you need another reason to turn off CNBC — health care, utilities and consumer staples, the classic refuges for mainstream money managers, aren’t such good choices during this sucker’s rally.
“Buffett thinks his utilities and insurance businesses will do ‘quite well’ despite the recession,” says Chris Mayer, recapping Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting.

“Berkshire has its fingers in many different businesses, so Buffett has an eye into many parts of the economy. Buffett was mostly gloomy. Aside from utilities and insurance, he saw weakness in service and manufacturing and his other lines.

“Also interesting was a comment that he was looking more in the U.S. now than overseas. Last year, Buffett seemed to be devoting more energy abroad — I recall a trip to Germany, for instance. Now Buffett seems to find the U.S. situation more interesting.

“One other note: Buffett may not see much in manufacturing, but I’d say it is a wide spectrum. In Capital & Crisis, for instance, we own a few manufacturers in key areas of water, infrastructure and energy. They’ve turned in great results. But Buffett doesn’t see these, as they are too small for his radar screen. Too bad for him. Big advantage for us.”

In fact, Chris booked a 117% gain on just such a stock yesterday, in less than five months. Special Situations readers could have taken another 30% yesterday too, if they were following Chris’ advice. How did you do? If you’re not privy, become so here.
Stocks soared again yesterday, thanks mostly to another batch of “less awful” data. Traders started to rush in after construction spending and pending home sales data hit the tape at 10 o’clock. Both were way better than expected: Construction spending rose 0.3%, after a 1% drop in February, and pending home sales rose for the second straight month.

Of course, historically speaking, both measures are still in the dumps. But better to buy first and ask questions later… major indexes jumped 2.5-3%.
Markets are more timid today. The Dow is down about 20 points as we write — we suspect profit taking. And…
“Right now, the credit markets are broadcasting the following warning,” says Dan Amoss. “The equity of overleveraged REITs is at risk of elimination or permanent impairment. Yet the stocks of real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are popular among income-oriented retail investors, are still trading at high enough levels that discount a ‘garden-variety’ recession in commercial real estate.

“REITs were designed to invest in portfolios of rental properties, and generally pay no corporate income taxes if they distribute at least 90% of their profits as dividends to their shareholders.

“REITs thrive in an environment of steadily rising property values and rents. But in this ice age for commercial real estate, the REIT business model will cease to function properly; a REIT’s tax-free status doesn’t allow it to retain much excess capital during lean times. Since REITs pay out all their earnings, they cannot grow without taking on more debt. During the boom, a REIT strategy encompassing growth, leverage, and acquisitions was a virtuous cycle that led to juicy dividends and soaring stocks; in this bust, it’s morphed into a vicious cycle of dividend cuts, dilutive equity offerings, debt offerings at double-digit interest rates and bankruptcies.

“The REITs that levered up and grew too fast at the peak will go to zero in bankruptcy. Others could fall into the low single digits by year-end as the market anticipates that creditors will take title to many properties in 2009 and 2010. These developments would push the value of the REIT Index dramatically lower.”

Following that logic, Dan just handed his Strategic Short Report readers a short-REIT play with “200% profit potential.” Thanks to yesterday’s rally, it looks a whole lot juicier today… details here.
“I don’t know what in all honesty,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs “government can do about it,” highlighting another industry ripe for short selling: flailing newspapers.

Of course, Gibbs assured us President Obama “believes there has to be a strong free press,” but it seems that any hope of a GM-sized bailout check from Uncle Sam was informally squashed yesterday. Alas, papers like The New York Times and McClatchy have borrowed just enough money to go out of business, but not enough to pose the all-so-critical “systemic risk” to the U.S. economy.

Only magnificent failure is rewarded in I.O.U.S.A.
Ten of the 19 banks undergoing government stress tests are going to have to raise capital… that’s the word from The Wall Street Journal this morning. Wells Fargo has now joined Citi and Bank of America on the unnofficial list of banks rumored to have been naughty.

No one will really know for sure until Thursday, when the government has promised to release results. But seriously, who’s cereberally challenged enough to believe this charade anyway?
The mighty greenback is looking knock-kneed and feeble as stocks soar. The dollar index dropped a full point, to 83.8, during yesterday’s rally. That’s a one-month low and nearly 6 points off its credit crisis high.

The dollar swing has given the euro a 2 cent shot in the arm, too. It’s up to $1.34 as we write. The pound followed suit, rising from $1.48 to $1.51 in less than 24 hours. Only the yen held pretty steady… around 98.
Gold likes it when the dollar sucks air. The spot price climbed $15 yesterday and another $10 this morning, bringing the current price up around $915 and ounce. Work it.
Oil has also been enjoying the stock rally, too. The light sweet stuff edged up higher again yesterday, this time to a 2009 high of $54.47 a barrel.
Quietly, gas has been inching back up to levels of concern. The national average price for a gallon of the cheap stuff is now solidly above two bucks… $2.07, to be exact.

Although compared to the average price this time last year — $3.61 — who’s complaining?
A bankruptcy judge OKed Chrysler’s request to tap a $4.5 billion government loan yesterday, even though holders of their senior secured debt have yet to be repaid.

Investors and funds are filing motions left and right to stop the transfer of any assets to Chrysler… at least until the company ponies up $6.9 billion in assets to cover their debt obligations.

We doubt those “evil Wall Streeters” will get their way, but… oy… this thing is already a mess.

“The gurus in Washington say that the Chrysler bankruptcy is prepackaged,” writes Byron King. “And it’s going to be fast and easy. Yeah, right. Beware hubris. Like the previous administration thought that the Iraq war was going to be fast and easy.

“I used to practice bankruptcy law. Is there a courtroom anywhere in this land that’s big enough to hold all the players in a Chrysler bankruptcy? It’s the first ‘big’ automobile bankruptcy in the U.S. since Studebaker in 1933. There’s no recipe book for doing this.

“The judge in the case might just have to book Madison Square Garden to have enough space for all the participants. And everyone is entitled to their day in court. Considering the tens of billions of dollars in play, I expect we’ll see many days in court, up to and including the U.S. Supreme Court. That should take only a few years.”

But at least you’ll be able to drive one of these afterward:

The Fiat 500: Not Currently Available Near You

“After researching, over the past 10 years, the different venues of alt energy,” writes a reader, “I have invested what I can in geothermal. There is no other source that runs 24/7, has zero ecology damage and zero carbon footprint, is available virtually under every rock and is economically less expensive than any other source. We don’t have to wait for the sun, wind or enough uranium to be mined. Oh! We don’t have to figure out how to bury the byproduct in somebody else’s backyard (NISEBY).

“It is such a no-brainer that considering any other way must mean that there are serious politics involved. Maybe the wrong people will make the money. The difference in costs could go to solving the problems raised in I.O.U.S.A. Do you suppose that Big Oil would find it a problem if the grid were run on geo? It can be done.”

The 5: We suppose they’d be annoyed, but as an investor, why choose one or the other? Byron’s Energy & Scarcity Investor has strong plays in both oil and geothermal… check it out, here.
“So what if Byron King is right,” writes a reader, “that China now controls the ‘rare earth metals’ that are integral to the manufacture of guided ballistic missiles (and all the other knickknacks that we don’t really need — and some we probably do).

“I’d rather have the Chinese control them than the delusional, slobbering cowboys in our military. Maybe they’ll do something with these metals other than design weapons whose purpose is the wholesale slaughter of human beings. Besides, what are they going to do with them? Eat them? Of course not. They’ll sell them on the world market at market price and we can go on happily making new bombs, which, it seems, is the only thing we are really good at.”

The 5: Heh. You have a good point there.
“Hey, 5,” writes the last, “thanks for the ‘tip o’ the mug’ to Red Emma’s. In this day of lunatics and liars, Red Emma’s gives us a break, helps keeps us grounded. Not enough of that around these days.”

The 5: Best coffee (and transgender anarchist poetry selection) in Baltimore.

Source: Market Comeback, Sector to Short, Berkshire Meeting, Investing in Swine Flu and More!

Apartment rentals are down for the first time in six years and nearly 96% of renters surveyed said they would be moving this year. Most said it was due a desire to be in a new neighborhood or city, but many simply wanted more for their money.

Then there’s the real cost-saver of rooming with another and splitting the bill. Listings for roommates on craigslist.org increased from 255,900 in 2007 to 421,000 in 2008.

A quick look at the Dow Jones Equity All REIT Total Return Index shows REITs crashed right along with the market in September.

These Trusts used to lay the investor’s golden dividend egg. If REITs distribute 90% of their income, they are not required to pay corporate taxes… so pay out they did.

But this profitable goose is cooked…

None of the following multifamily REITs have reclaimed anywhere near their Fall of 2008 share price. A quick snapshot of some of the bigger players since Oct. 1, 2008 is telling…

- American Campus Communities, Inc. (NYSE:ACC), Equity Lifestyle Properties, Inc. (NYSE:ELS), and Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE:SNH) are down over 30%…

Read the full article here at TFN: Avoid Apartment REITs

This from Investment U:

Investing in the booming real estate market… ?

Lest you think I’ve gone totally off my rocker, let me explain. Last night, I received an interesting phone call from an old friend of mine. Jim’s in his forties, has a wife and a couple of kids, and lives in Orlando, Florida.

Six years ago, when I was vice-president of a telecommunications company, I hired Jim to run a new specialty business we were setting up in his neck of the woods. He knew absolutely nothing about our business, but he was a smart guy and I felt he was the best person for the job. It was the right decision, as Jim was a self-starter and turned out to be a great manager for our new operation.

When I left the business a few years later, I suggested he consider striking out on his own, as he would do a lot better for himself. He still owes me a nice dinner for that piece of advice.

Last year, his sales were over $2 million… this year he’ll likely do four times that. He has 10 full-time employees, and he’s going to be looking for more this year. He’s quickly become the No. 1 contractor in central Florida for the type of business he’s in.

Investing in Real Estate – Buying Unfinished Homes

Then he told me something that floored me: He’s taking some of his hard-earned profits, and has been investing them in Florida real estate. Unfinished single-family homes to be exact.

I couldn’t believe my ears. Naturally I asked him how he could possibly be making money buying real estate in one of the most over-built areas of the country. Here’s what he told me:

“It’s a simple business model: You buy unfinished houses in existing developments that have other finished homes. These are houses that are anywhere from 25% to 75% complete… hundreds of them. They’re eyesores to the people who live there and financial burdens to the banks that own them.

“Many of the contractors that were building these “spec” houses overextended themselves financially. So they simply packed up their tools and left the bank holding an unfinished house. Obviously, the banks are hot to unload these properties first. Terms are simple: 100% cash.

“I just paid $28,000 for a three-bedroom 3,000 sq. ft. house. I’ll probably have to dump another $25K – to $50K into it to finish it off. I then put it on the rental market. I usually sign a rental contract within a week.”

Jim said because of the high foreclosure rates in Florida, the rental market is doing very well. Also, a lot of people are migrating from other areas like Detroit, in hopes of finding work in the Orlando area.

He did a lot of figuring before he bought his first one, but he told me with the rates he’s charging, he’ll have his upfront money back in a year or two on most of the properties he buys. Then he’s the owner of a very nice house that he bought for anywhere from 25% to 50% of its actual value in today’s depressed market.

Interestingly, the average investor can do the same thing, but in a much easier fashion than my friend Jim’s doing.

Investing in Real Estate With REITs

There are a number of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that specialize in residential rental real estate investments.

And this week, these funds are starting to see some handsome moves to the plus side. For instance:

• CMG Realty (CGMRX) is up nearly 10% in the past few trading days.
• Third Avenue Real Estate Value (TAREX) is up almost 5%.
• And Fidelity International Real Estate (FIREX) is 4.5% to the plus side.

What’s going on here? Simple. Three or four years ago, renters were busy buying houses they couldn’t afford. As a result, apartment owners couldn’t give away apartments, and vacancy rates skyrocketed. Then the housing market collapsed.

Add the havoc in the financial markets to the above mix and you have most REITs trading at a significant discount. Now the trend is reversing itself and it might just be the best time in a decade to own apartment and residential real estate REITs.

Others to consider long term are:

• Avalon Bay Communities (NYSE:AVB) a well-run, low-leveraged operation in high barrier-to-entry markets.
• Essex Property Trust (NYSE:ESS) also operating in high-barrier markets.
• And Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) specializing in large apartment complexes.

Watch these plays closely… when they trade sideways for a period of a few weeks or months, consider adding them to your “recovery portfolio.” Next year, you may be very happy you did.

Source: How to Invest in the Booming Real Estate Market…

Judging by reports, this will be the worst holiday shopping season in almost 40 years. This means that after the next round of corporate earnings reports that start next week, a wave of bankruptcy filings could follow. On a recent Bloomberg radio interview, Burt Flickinger of Strategic Resource Group said “You’ll see department stores, specialty stores, discount stores, grocery stores, drugstores, major chains either multi- regionally or nationally go out.”

So what does this mean to you? A few things: for one, it means now it is time to buy big, national chains that aren’t in any danger of closing. Companies such as Wal-Mart (WMT), Target, and Best Buy will gain market share as smaller competitors go out of business. This will also mean increased revenue from the growing customer base.

Secondly, if you have gift cards or after-holiday returns to some stores that are already in bankruptcy (Circuit City, Linen’s and Things) or on the verge of closing, hurry up and use the gift cards or return the merchandise.

It also means that if you are willing to roll the dice a bit, you may be able to get incredible deals as retailers blowout their inventories before closing. Electronics could be especially appealing, although getting warranty claims could be near impossible without a storefront to take the product back. Like everything in life, it’s risk versus reward.

Finally, it reinforces that commercial REITs should be avoided. Commercial REITs have been getting hammered lately, and soon face rising vacancies as more and more storefronts are shuttered.

Source: A Big Shakeout In Retail Is Coming In 2009

This from Today’s Financial News:

Well look at that. Government intervention is actually helping in a way our lawmakers intended. While not all of the Fed’s programs have been a success, the one it created last week is working to get the nation’s economy back on track.

You may recall the Federal Reserve announced last week that it planned to purchase up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities from government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Its goal was to grease the rusty gears of the real estate industry and force mortgage rates lower.

The plan worked.

The Mortgage Bankers Association announced this morning that last week’s mortgage application rate skyrocketed a record 112%. With the gauge at 857, applications last week were at their highest levels since late March.

Of course, buyers were not gobbling up homes during the Thanksgiving week because Fannie and Freddie were getting a break. They were applying for mortgages because interest rates are at their lowest rates since 2005. Buyers are getting a fantastic deal.

The boosters are ignited

A week or so ago, a 30-year fixed mortgage came with a rate of close to 6.5%. Today, perspective buyers can lock in a rate with Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) of just 5.375%. That is enough to pull monthly mortgage payments down by several hundred dollars each month.

With rates this low and homes this cheap, buyers are finally realizing the opportunity they have on their hands. Out of all of the deals the Fed has created over the past three months, this one has the most potential of directly helping the American people.

But what about you as an investor? Well, the news is even better. The real estate industry has traditionally been a leading indicator. In other words, it rises ahead of the financial markets. An increase in home purchases and therefore home values, is a surefire indication that the equities market will be making similar moves in the near future.

There are some great investment opportunities out there.  But for now, stay away from traditional real estate plays like REITs and the nation’s large homebuilders. The deleveraging tsunami is still pulling these sectors under and there will likely to be more pain in the near future.

If you want to make conservative investments with larger-than-usual profit potential, stick with the big guys. Blue Chips are a great investment as the nation gets back on track. Companies like General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Altria (NSYE:MO) with their strong dividends and proven history of healthy revenue growth are worth your money.

The Federal Reserve is making positive moves, the real estate market is on the rebound and moneymaking opportunities are all over the place. If you are not going to buy a house or two at these great prices, at least invest in a few discounted stocks.

Source: The real estate industry gets a favor from Bernanke

This from Money Morning:

The U.S. housing market is already being pounded by the “perfect storm.” And the outlook for the New Year is for the stormy weather to continue – and probably to get worse.

As if a locked-up credit market and tidal waves of foreclosures weren’t already enough, we’re now watching unemployment climb and consumer confidence plunge.

But even when the housing market is taking on water, there are ways to stay afloat. Indeed, investors nimble enough to maneuver can even make money.

The watchword on this market, though, is caution.  If an investor decides to test the waters, beware of the extraordinary financial undertow.

Here’s a look at what’s happening now, and what the implications there are for investors in the New Year.

Rising Unemployment Feeds into Sinking Demand

The grim reality is that skyrocketing unemployment is a major threat to the recovery of the U.S. housing market.  And consumers shackled with record levels of debt are unlikely to ride to the rescue this time.

Since this recession is expected to be long and deep, economists are projecting high rates of unemployment. And the latest statistics released by the U.S. Labor Department show the crucial jobs market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid pace.

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a 14-year high of 6.5% in October as another 240,000 jobs were cut – an uptick from 6.1% in September and the 10th month in a row the jobless rate has risen. Most forecasts are calling for unemployment to spike as high as 8.5%, which would be the worst showing since 1980.

So far this year, a staggering 1.2 million jobs have disappeared. More than half the decrease occurred in the past three months alone, Money Morning reported in its “Outlook 2009” series economic forecast story. Even worse: A year ago, job cuts were concentrated in the financial-services and homebuilding sectors. Now they’re rising across the board; virtually every part of the economy is feeling the squeeze.

For instance:

• U.S. automaker Chrysler Corp., one of Detroit’s wheezing “Big Three,” is laying off 25% of its white-collar work force of 18,500.
• Appliance maker Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) recently announced it would cut 5,000 jobs to cope with declining sales.
• Worldwide shipping giant DHL, a subsidiary of Deutsche Post AG, is laying off 9,500 people, and threatening to close its U.S. distribution center.
• Onetime Internet search giant Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) plans to let 1,100 workers go – on top of the 1,000 already jettisoned in January – the result of several botched merger attempts.
• Ailing banking giant Citigroup Inc. (C) heaped more bad news on the financial sector, announcing whopping 50,000 layoffs in the next 12 months.

Layoffs of this magnitude are more than a mere shot across the bow of the housing market – they’re actually a direct hit amid ship. People who are unemployed cannot buy homes. Period. But even consumers who are afraid that they might be joining the jobless ranks are loath to take on the added risk – making them unlikely candidates to buy a new home.

Foreclosures Still Rising

As unemployment climbs, foreclosures will continue to multiply. That only exacerbates an already unappealing combination – more houses being dumped onto the market even as the pool of potential buyers grows increasingly smaller.

RealtyTrac Inc. reported that more than 81,000 homes were foreclosed on in September – 71% increase from the same period just a year ago. For 2008, foreclosures rose to a record 765,558.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see foreclosures increase as the economy slows down,” said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s vice president of marketing. “The people living paycheck to paycheck are at risk if they lose their jobs. It will cause more people to lose their homes.”

And while foreclosure volumes are outpacing projections, the cumulative losses by banks on bad mortgages may have yet to hit their books.  Since loan losses don’t get recorded until the property is sold, it’s likely there’s a lot of bank-owned inventory that hasn’t been unloaded – meaning there may be more foreclosures out there investors don’t yet know about.

“We are in uncharted waters,” said Brian Bethune, an economist at research firm Global Insight (IHS).

Making the waters even rougher was the decision by Standard & Poor’s Inc. (MHP) to cut the ratings on $34.1 billion of “Alt-A” residential loan packages that had been issued in 2006 and 2007.  Alt-A mortgages are those written with little or no documentation, i.e., without proof of income or assets. Even worse, S&P put an additional $351.7 billion of Alt-A securities up for possible review reflecting the rating company’s “belief that further declines in home sales will depress prices further and push loss severities higher than we had previously assumed.”

On top of all that, record numbers of borrowers are already “underwater,” or “upside down” on their mortgages, making it more attractive for them to default by simply walking away, than to hang around and drown.

About 18% of homes nationwide are now “upside down,” according to a report from First American CoreLogic.  Almost two-thirds of those homes are in just seven states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. In Mountain House, Calif., an unincorporated planned housing community located in the foothills of the Diablo mountain range, the housing crisis right now has nearly 90% of the homeowners owing more on their houses than they are worth – the highest percentage in the country, The New York Times reported on Nov. 10. The average homeowner is underwater by $122,000, the newspaper said.

Other areas are suffering almost as much: In Nevada, alone, borrowers owed a whopping 89% of the value of their homes.

Despite such dramatic anecdotes, this housing slump is nationwide in nature. It’s more severe than any other such downturn since World War II, mostly because of the risky lending practices that inflated the real-estate bubble in the first place.

The Downdraft in Housing Prices

Meanwhile, while unemployment rises, the downward spiral in housing prices is gaining momentum.

“The No.1 thing that drives housing values is incomes,” said Todd Sinai, an associate professor of real estate at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. “When incomes fall, demand for housing falls.”

The S&P/Case-Shiller Index of home prices plunged 16.6% in August from the year before, following a 16.3% drop in July. The index has fallen every month since January 2007 (See accompanying chart, “Plummeting Prices.”).

Prices were lower in all 20 of the major cities the index covers, with Phoenix and Las Vegas down nearly 31% from last year.

Nationwide home prices have fallen 20.3% since peaking in June 2006.

And the skid isn’t over.

According to Fitch Ratings Inc., U.S. home prices will fall another 8% to 10% before they show signs of stabilizing.  According to a Fitch forecast, the peak-to-trough price decline will be 30%.
And still one other reliable indicator of housing prices seems to confirm that, in many cities, home prices still have further to fall.

According to analysis by Moody’s Investors Service (MCO), Miami houses are right now priced at about 22 times annual rental income – versus an average of just 15 over the past two decades. This suggests that a home currently priced at $350,000 is actually worth only $238,600 – meaning the price would have to drop 32% to reach the fair-value point.

Congressional Missteps

In an effort to help more than 400,000 homeowners avoid foreclosure, Congress came up with the “Hope for Homeowners” program.  Unfortunately, in their infinite wisdom, federal lawmakers designed a program that is almost certain to fail.

The program supposedly makes as much as $300 billion available to at-risk borrowers, enabling them to refinance into a 30-year, fixed-rate loan insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).

The biggest mistake Congress made was to make this program strictly voluntary for participating banks, experts say.

Just as bad: In an effort to make the program more affordable for beleaguered homeowners, it also requires the lenders to write the value of the home down to 90% of its current market value. So in a downtrodden market like Phoenix, if a lender holds a $400,000 mortgage on a home currently appraised at $300,000, the bank would have to settle for a new mortgage worth only $270,000.

Needless to say, the response has been underwhelming.  After four weeks, a whopping 79 people had applied for the program.

Not to be deterred, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) is proposing another package, which would extend the terms of at-risk loans from 30 years to 40 years, with interest rates as low as 3.0%.  Housing payments for delinquent borrowers could not exceed 38% of gross monthly income.

In order to sweeten the pot for lenders, the government would share as much as 50% of the losses if a borrower ended up in default anyway.  In addition, the FDIC would pay servicers who process these new mortgages a fee of $1,000 for each re-worked loan.

FDIC officials estimate that this anti-foreclosure program would cost $24.4 billion, and would prevent 1.5 million of the 2.2 million at-risk homes from falling into foreclosure.

But that also means the taxpayer will be on the hook for half the value of 700,000 mortgages that do fail.

Can you say “fuzzy math?”

Homebuilders on the Ropes

You can probably guess where this leaves the nation’s homebuilders – gasping for air.

D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), one of the nation’s biggest homebuilders, just wrote down $1.1 billion in land, deposits and inventory in the third quarter, as sales fell by half. The Ft. Worth, Tex.-based company expects to post a fourth-quarter net loss of between $800 million and $900 million, 18 times more than it lost in the fourth quarter a year ago.

Other builders are in similar shape. Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM) and The Ryland Group Inc. (RYL) just reported quarterly losses of $280.4 million and $65.7 million, respectively.

Even Toll Bros. Inc. (TOL), which caters to the high-end buyer, said fourth-quarter revenue fell 41% from the same period last year.

The Forecast for 2009: More Pain Before Any Gain

No matter what happens in the U.S. housing market, until a large inventory reduction takes place, housing prices will not stabilize.

In a recent Forbes magazine column, A. Gary Shilling, president of an economic consulting firm of the same name, said the worst is yet to come. Says Schilling: “Excess inventory, the mortal enemy of prices, now amounts to 1.8 million homes, which is a huge number relative to the net demand (new families minus departures due to deaths and moves to nursing homes) which is only 1.5 million a year.”

And one of the architects of the U.S. housing debacle – former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan – is also downbeat: “At a minimum, stabilization of home prices is still many months in the future,” Greenspan said in an October speech.

The question that needs to be answered, then, is this: In the current atmosphere, does anyone believe we actually need homebuilders to add even one new home to the market?

Some pundits claim this may be a golden opportunity to short U.S. homebuilders. Even though they’re already down 80% from their highs, the deadly combination of skyrocketing unemployment, deflating prices and tight credit continue to spell further pain for the industry.

Short sellers would obviously look at any of the companies mentioned above. They might also consider iShares US Home Construction (ITB), the prominent exchange traded fund (ETF) for the group. However, any such move would have to be made with extreme caution.

The reason: All bets are off if the new Barack Obama Administration implements a moratorium on mortgage foreclosures. There’s also the possibility that Obama will be able to shepherd through any one or more of the proposed mortgage guarantee programs now on the table.

Those kinds of moves could provide a boost to homebuilders and leave short sellers in the grips of an uncomfortable squeeze – just like the millions of homeowners saddled with mortgages they can no longer pay.

Source: New Year U.S. Housing Market Forecast: No Gain, More Pain

JP Morgan Chase has announced it will delay foreclosure proceedings while it works with struggling homeowners.  Over the next 90 days, the bank will look at loans and determine if the loan is eligible for a reduced interest rate or loan balance.

The company has already helped over 250,000 families with over $40 billion in troubled loans, and over the next two years plan to help another 400,000 homeowners with over $70 billion in loans. Loans held by Washington Mutual (NYSE:WAMU) and EMC Mortgage Corp, which were recently acquired by JP Morgan Chase, will also be eligible for revision.

What remains to be seen is the effect this will have on foreclosure rates. Reducing a borrower’s interest rate slightly doesn’t necessarily translate to a large reduction in a mortgage payment. A drop of $75 or $100 a month in the mortgage payment would be welcome for the homeowners, but the savings could quickly be eaten up by rising costs elsewhere.

Hopefully the plan relies more on reducing principal balances to more accurately reflect fair market values. This would help by stabilizing home values at fair-market levels, rather than letting foreclosures decimate neighborhoods.

For example, if a home bought a few years ago for $250,000 gets re-appraised for $180,000 and the borrower can now afford the payments and avoids foreclosure. This drops the value down to $180,000 for comparables, but avoids a potential drop to $125,000-140,000 if the home goes into foreclosure and gets sold at auction. Not a perfect solution, but anything is better than another foreclosure.

Source: Focus Can Now Shift To The Collapsed Housing Market