Lord William Rees-Mogg (Fleet Street Invest UK):
In the last six months there has been a rebound of 50% in the great majority of world stock markets.

There has also been a comparable rebound in the price of oil, with West Texas oil rising very close to $80 a barrel. In the oil market there has been heavy two-way trading in options. There could be a sharp spike in the oil price if speculators have to cover their positions.

At the same time the US dollar has remained weak, and now stands at $1.4886 to the euro and $1.66628 to the pound. This is close to a 14-month low on a trade-weighted basis. The poor performance of the dollar reflects the low US interest rates and the twin US fiscal and trade deficits.

The demise of the dollar

The dollar nevertheless remains the world’s leading reserve currency, with the euro in second place. Investors are naturally anxious to protect themselves against markets, including currency markets, which have shown such a high degree of volatility.

The Chinese, who have the greatest number of dollars in their currency reserves, have already suffered substantial losses.

In what amounts to a crisis of the dollar, the euro is in second place as a reserve currency, but there are potential threats to the future of the euro, due to the weak productivity of the Mediterranean economies. There is a big stretch in productivity growth between the German and the Southern European regions.

The fall in the dollar against other currencies includes a devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold, which now seems to have stabilized at a dollar price of $1,050 an ounce.

The circumstances do indeed appear to be uniquely favourable to gold.

Interest rates and therefore carrying costs are exceptionally low. The dollar is exceptionally weak. The technical market position is strong, including good demand for gold in terms of jewellery. The oil price – which is often linked to gold – is rising. Those who believe that oil is due for a further rise to $100 a barrel are likely also to be confident about holding a proportion of their investment . . .
Click here to read the rest of Lord Rees-Mogg’s article at Fleet Street Invest UK.

“I have always depended on the kindness of strangers,” said Blanche DuBois, in the final words of the play A Streetcar Named Desire. Well, don’t we all.

Many citizens probably still cling to the old saw that public debt doesn’t matter because “we owe it to ourselves.” Wrong. Debt always matters. And as for whom we owe it to, it is a lot of kind (or, at least, not yet unkind) strangers.

As recently as 1970, foreign holders of U.S. debt were essentially non-existent. But their slice of our obligation pie has steadily increased, especially over the past two decades, until now foreign governments and international investors hold about 35% of Treasuries, as the following chart reveals.

Chart of U.S. national debt holders, domestic and foreign

Of about $11 trillion in U.S. debt, foreigners have about $3.8 trillion, with China in the lead at nearly $1 trillion and Japan not far behind at around $750 billion.
Most likely, though, this trend has already leveled off. The Chinese, Japanese, Russians, and Indians have openly announced their decision to cut back on further purchases and existing holdings of U.S. government debt. Beyond that, the source of funds previously allocated to their purchases — trade surpluses — has declined sharply with the recession. As a consequence, going forward, foreign buying is more apt to shrink than increase.
While foreigners are continuing to show up for the record-sized Treasury auctions, it’s due to the dollar retaining its status (albeit shakily) as the world’s reserve currency. But they have become quite cautious, generally investing towards the front end of the yield curve, which is a vote of no confidence in the buck’s future. As the chart below illustrates, sales of long-term bonds to foreigners are way down.

Treasury bond sales graph

So what does all this mean?

It means that a big chunk of our prosperity during the past twenty years was due to a trade deficit that put billions of dollars into the hands of foreigners, who then turned around and bought Treasuries with them, helping the U.S. government finance its massive deficit spending. That’s over — and the unwinding process has just begun.

Yet federal deficit spending, far from reflecting this reality, has grown by leaps and bounds. But who will finance it? Let’s extend our first chart out a few years.

Projected U.S. Debt

As you can see, we project that foreign participation has plateaued. U.S. private domestic investors can probably increase their holdings moderately, now that households are consuming less and saving more, and financial institutions have money to invest in Treasury paper. The agencies and trusts (like Social Security) are really not a part of the equation, but rather reflect programs on “auto-pilot” and quickly headed to the point where they will negatively impact, not help, the deficits.
Adding it all together, even under the most conservative of assumptions, there are simply not enough buyers to cover the accelerating federal deficits. That leaves the lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve, as the only remaining candidate to satisfy the government’s grotesque appetite for funding. There is no viable alternative.
The Fed will take up the slack in the only way open to it, by printing money out of thin air and exchanging it for promises from the Treasury. That means an escalation of monetary inflation and, somewhere down the road, serious price inflation as well. We don’t know exactly when that will happen, only that it must.
The editors of The Casey Report have been alerting subscribers to this very possible scenario for quite some time. If foreigners stop buying U.S. government debt, the whole house of cards will come crashing down. But you can do a lot to protect yourself financially – run with the trend instead of swimming against it. Find out more about the accurate predictions of trend hunter Doug Casey and his team, and how to profit from them . . . click here.

Unfortunately, it’s too late to reverse course for America. President Obama’s spending program is speeding up the collapse, not slowing it down. Right now, 21 cents out of every $1 paid over to the feds in income tax goes to paying off the interest on the national debt. Soon, it will be almost double that amount. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that this is unsustainable.

It doesn’t take a genius, either, to figure out that higher spending and higher debt mean higher taxes and a weaker dollar. Here are just some of the shocking forecasts James makes in this explosive report:

• No matter who you are, your taxes will go up. The government will continue to raise taxes in an attempt to keep its spending programs alive. The Obama administration is already planning to raise corporate taxes, already the second highest in the world. The costs of this will be passed on to you whenever you buy something.
• The US dollar is already being undermined as the world’s reserve currency as US debt holders led by China, Russia, India and Brazil move to protect themselves against dollar depreciation. Soon the dollar will lose its reserve currency status.
• The Social Security Ponzi scheme will collapse. The government will be unable to borrow the funds it needs to replace all the money it has already spent from the Social Security trust fund.
• Interest rates in the U.S. will rise to 6% plus as the government needs to raise the rate to stimulate foreign demand.
• Excessive government borrowing will push up mortgage rates and trigger another leg down in the housing market. Huge numbers of prime borrowers have already begun to default on their mortgages, triggering what is destined to become another wave of toxic asset writedowns at banks.
• The government will default on Social Security payments and Medicare and Medicaid obligations. It will not do so in an open way. Instead, it will fail to accurately index-link Social Security benefits to the cost of living… it will ration hospital stays and doctors visits… and it will deny expensive treatments and medication to state-insured patients (beginning with the elderly)
• The US will enter a long period of economic stagnation coupled with inflation.
• In years to come, the period between 2008 and 2018 will be known as America’s “lost decade.”
• Oil prices fall to $25 a barrel before breaking through their July 11 2008 high of $147.90 a barrel.
• Unemployment rates will rise to 20%.

James is a personal friend. And he’s one of the best thinkers about the global economy we know. Back in 1993, James sent out a similar warning to investors. His forecasts, 14 years before the subprime collapse was ever heard of, were scarily accurate…

· I see at millions unemployed or in make-work public assistance jobs.

· I see millions more homeowners “upside down” – with a mortgage bigger than the value of the home.

· Banking industry problems will prove too big for the government to paper over.

We strongly urge you to read James’s latest report. Of course, he could be wrong. The nearly $12 trillion national debt could just keep on growing to infinity with no serious repercussions for America’s economic standing in the world. The breakneck increase in the money supply since the outbreak of the economic crisis may not trigger a dangerous inflationary cycle. And President Obama might pull a white rabbit out of a top hat instead of increasing taxes to pay for his bloated budget. But we doubt it. As we like to say here at Notes, “Smart investors hope for the best, but they prepare for the worst.”

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan federal agency responsible for providing economic data to Congress, knows the game is up, too. This from the CBO’s director’s blog:

Under current law, the federal budget is on an unsustainable path, because federal debt will continue to grow much faster than the economy over the long run. Although great uncertainty surrounds long-term fiscal projections, rising costs for health care and the aging of the population will cause federal spending to increase rapidly under any plausible scenario for current law. Unless revenues increase just as rapidly, the rise in spending will produce growing budget deficits. Large budget deficits would reduce national saving, leading to more borrowing from abroad and less domestic investment, which in turn would depress economic growth in the United States. Over time, accumulating debt would cause substantial harm to the economy. […]

Keeping deficits and debt from reaching these levels would require increasing revenues significantly as a share of GDP, decreasing projected spending sharply, or some combination of the two.

We believed in Santa as a kid. But we don’t believe that Team Obama is going to decrease spending “sharply” or otherwise. So “revenues” (aka taxes) will have to rise.  And to soften the blow, you can count on the administration reneging on its Social Security and Medicare obligations.

What Barack Obama and Joe Biden just don’t get is that too much taxation drove the American Revolution. And with the federal government now consuming about 28% of GDP and state and local governments another 15%, tax hikes are inevitable. In fact, they are already here. This from well-known fiscal conservative Pat Buchanan:

Obama plans to repeal the Bush tax cuts and take the income tax rate to near 40%. Combined state and local income tax rates can run to 10%. For the self-employed, payroll taxes add up to 15.2% on the first $106,800 for all wages of all workers. Medicare takes 2.9% of all wages above that. Then there are the state sales taxes that can run to 8%, property taxes, gas taxes, excise taxes and “sin taxes” on booze, cigarettes and, soon, hot dogs and soft drinks.

Comes now national health insurance from Nancy Pelosi’s House. A surtax that runs to 5.4% of all earnings of the top 1% of Americans, who already pay 40% of all federal income taxes, has been sent to the Senate. Included also is an 8% tax on the entire payroll of small businesses that fail to provide health insurance for employees.

One thing you can be sure of is that the world’s economic mandarins are slow to learn from the mistakes of history. This from the Daily Reckoning:

After the expansion comes the contraction. After the bubble comes the clean-

up. After the storm comes the sun.

But what is going on in China? What comes after the biggest export-led
bubble ever? Another bubble?

It doesn’t seem possible. China’s number one customer is broke. It has far too
many factories for those that are left. It should be closing up shop…and
waiting out the bad weather. And yet, China is growing. A combination of hot
money…and hot financial policy…is falling on everyone’s favorite green shoot
like Miracle-Gro. Its trade surplus and foreign direct investment – the usual
source of reserves of foreign currencies – are only half what they were last
year. But the speculators are coming in…and they are bringing cash. This has
boosted Chinese reserves past the $2 trillion mark…and provided the liquidity
for another round of bubble-like conditions. Trading volumes in Chinese
stocks, for example, are running three times last year’s.

The world’s investors and economists think they are looking at the Second
Coming. Chinese growth will power the world out of its slump.
Hallelujah…we’re saved! Things will be ‘back to normal,’ soon. Stocks rose
yesterday in anticipation – with the Dow up.

Daily Reckoning readers are warned: this too shall pop.

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! I’m late, I’m late! I don’t believe I ever heard the alarm go off this morning! I overslept by more than an hour, and will still be here more than an hour before any sign of someone else! But! That puts me behind by more than an hour today… I’ve got to play catch-up! So, let’s get this Tub Thumpin’ Thursday going!

Well… Let’s see… G-8 never had the opportunity to shoot fireworks because China’s leader had to return home to deal with the street riots going on in his country. So… The call for a replacement for the dollar as the reserve currency will have to wait for another day! And, with that news, the dollar got to remain in the sunlight, and bask in the glory of being the reserve currency and so-called “safe haven” another day…

There was added Risk Aversion yesterday when it was reported that an Australian shipment of coal to China was cancelled… This sent bad vibes through the markets for the currencies and commodities with the thought that China was putting the brakes on their buying of raw materials, and that their recovery had not taken hold like many had believed…

But… Overnight, calmer heads have prevailed. You see, it was my opinion when I heard that news yesterday, that it was simply one bad shipment to a customer that was having difficulties… Not ALL OF CHINA! And then overnight the data came out… This was one shipment, maybe 150,000 tons of coal… Australian coal shipments to China on a monthly basis run about 3 million tons! I truly believe that Australia’s trade with China is on terra firma, and this was a one-off deal that went bad… I also believe that the sell-off of the Aussie dollar (A$) was completely overdone… Completely!

I don’t know this to be a fact… But, given the relationship of the Asian investors and the A$, I would think the Asian investors to be licking their chops to have the opportunity to buy the A$ at these lower levels! Buy on the dips, right? Don’t I always say that to be a prudent investment strategy?

Of course it didn’t hurt that U.S. stocks rebounded yesterday a bit on the news that Alcoa’s losses weren’t “as bad as expected”… Talk about setting the bar low! It’s not like ALCOA didn’t still have a LOSS! But, don’t get me started on this mental giant thought process that has a grip on stocks these days… “oh, don’t worry, you only burned down 1/2 of the house, I would have expected it to all burn down!”

I’ve got to leave that alone before I really burst! Let’s see, what can get my mind off of that subject… OH! The Bank of England (BOE) just announced that they would keep rates unchanged. Well, my goodness, what else would we expect them to do? Their base rate is .50!

Here in the U.S… The Obama administration is trying desperately to nip in the bud, the whispering campaign for another stimulus package… “No one in the administration is talking about a second stimulus at this point,” said Robert Nabors, deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget. However he also mumbled something about how the President is not “ruling anything out”…

I don’t care what they say… I’ll believe it when I see it… And I still believe that the Gov’t will believe that another stimulus is needed…

One of the discussions that I had with my fave economist the other day was about “delaying the inevitable”… I’ve talked about this before, but for new readers, I thought I would give them a dose of “Chuck’s Thoughts” this morning… (HA! As if they don’t get that every day!)

This “delaying the inevitable” is all about the TARP (troubled asset relief program) and how it all did was allow bad banks to continue to be bad banks longer, with toxic waste in their portfolio… This, even in the face of a suspension of the mark to market rules! Bad Banks should have been sent packing, then… And now, all we’ve done is let them hang on to cause even more collateral damage!

OK… I’ll get back to the daily discussion now…

It looks as though the auction of $35 Billion in 3-year Treasuries went smoothly, which is another reason the dollar was strong yesterday… Every time one of these auctions go smoothly, the “deficits don’t matter” crowd all point and say… “see, we told you, that foreigners will always come to the auction to buy Treasuries, so it doesn’t matter what we run the deficit up to”…

Right! You just keep thinking that, and see where it eventually gets you! Ty sent me a note yesterday from an article he was reading, that plays nicely with this discussion… So… Let’s play Marvin Gaye, and see what’s going on!

“For now, the Treasury continues to find takers for government savings bonds at low interest rates. But somewhere between here and infinity lies a point at which American debt reaches unsustainable proportions, at which investors will balk at continuing to finance the American expenditures absent a higher return on their investments. Then, everything could change quickly, with interest rates soaring and the value of the dollar plummeting, as foreign investors lose faith in its fundamental value.

“We’re running this $10 trillion gamble that interest rates aren’t going to rise,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a professor at Harvard. “If they do, we could end up in a very difficult situation.”

Hey, you think so, Kenneth? My goodness, we have a new “Mr. Obvious!” I would think that we are already in a very difficult situation, given the fact that when the you know what hit the fan the U.S. had no war chest to use, like China did… Why? Because we didn’t think “deficits mattered”… Dealing with problems from a position of strength, it would have made a HUGE difference from the get-go!

However, having said that… I believe that a larger problem is still on the horizon for the U.S. and the “deficits don’t matter” flag wavers… And Hey! It’s not going to happen overnight… It’s going to be a slow, dragged out, problem that goes on for years, and then finally snaps! I’m talking about the entitlements and the retiring baby boomers… And more specifically when I’m talking about entitlements, I’m talking about Medicare!

The Big Boss, Frank Trotter, showed me a graph that he came across from the Concord Coalition the other day that illustrated this… While I wasn’t shocked, having seen this all in the movie I.O.U.S.A. and in the book of the same name, there it was again staring me in the face…

The reason I tell you all this, is that the Current Administration has no other choice but to allow the dollar to weaken considerably over the years so that these deficits that “didn’t matter” can be paid off with cheaper dollars… And it won’t be this administration that has to deal with it… That’s why this one and the previous one aren’t concerned about the size of the National Debt…

Ok, enough of all that… I didn’t mean for this to be gloom and doom! Let’s move on…

The data cupboard has the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims for us to view today… I expect for the weekly number to remain above 600,000, and the Continuing Claims to have risen… Though this all sounds bad, the markets have become comfortably numb with this unemployment data… It will take something really BIG to slap the markets in the face and say WAKE UP!

And then, finally… The Japanese yen has really been on a tear this week as the Risk Aversion crowd dominated the markets… I find it very strange that Japan is considered a “safe haven” currency, given their national debt problems… And their once “Ace in the hole” the Trade Surplus, is taking on water… But… This is what the markets do, and they are never wrong! However, there’s a road block ahead for the yen, as it trades with a 92 handle this morning… And the road block is in the form of the Bank of Japan. (BOJ).. It was reported that last night the Bank of Japan issued a statement to the markets that “they were checking FX levels”

That’s Central Bank parlance especially coming from the BOJ, for… We don’t want the currency to get any stronger, and we’re just letting you know that we’re ready to intervene if you don’t settle down. Sort of like when grandma would tell you that if you didn’t settle down she would send you to the woods to find your switch… Believe me you only didn’t settle down once!

And when the Risk Traders come back and push the Risk Aversion crowd to the back of the room… Again, we’ll see yen sell off again… So be careful here!

Currencies today 7/9/09: A$ .7845, kiwi .6305, C$ .8650, euro 1.3980, sterling 1.6260, Swiss .9250, rand 8.11, krone 6.4925, SEK 7.8590, forint 196.70, zloty 3.1150, koruna 18.55, yen 92.90, sing 1.4580, HKD 7.75, INR 48.71, China 6.8317, pesos 13.47, BRL 2.00, dollar index 80.21, Oil $61.29, 10-year 3.39%, Silver $12.95, and Gold… $915

That’s it for today… Well… I got the news from the eye specialist yesterday regarding my left eye… The tumor and the fluid on the eye is gone, they successfully shrunk it and removed it… Unfortunately it left a ring of “stuff” on my eye, and my eyesight from that eye will never get any better. Of course, I still have my right eye, so I’m not completely bummed… My cutie little granddaughter, Delaney Grace came by to see me yesterday, she wanted me to come “sit by her” She’s almost 2 now, and saying her ABC’s, and singing songs, and she showed me how she knew her right from left now… Such a little joy to be around… I’ll get to spend a whole week with her in about 10 days when we all go on vacation together… Can’t wait! Well, my lateness has put me way behind this morning, I had better get going… Don’t forget… Today is going to be a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday no matter what!

Source: Risk Returns… Slowly

So… When I came in on Tuesday, the euro was 1.3920… When I came in this morning, the euro was trading 1.3925… Trading with yesterday’s clothes on. Back and forth, back and forth, the currencies seem to be in a rut… So, what happened to all the thoughts yesterday that China was making its first of many baby steps toward removing the dollar as the reserve currency? Well… They had the cold water of denial thrown on them… And the fact that apparently traders out there don’t believe the “China story” that I put on the table yesterday.

That, and the fact that U.S. stocks saw selling to the tune of -161 points in the DOW… I saw a story last night that came from a report by UBS, that said the euro will suffer in the coming weeks because of the U.S. earnings season putting pressure on stocks… Now, I agree with that statement sort of… I agree that right now, currencies are tied to risk assets like stocks, all thrown in the barrel like some college fraternity drinking party mix.. Not that I would know anything about that… But I’ve heard about it for sure! So, any way, back at the ranch… And I agree that the Corp earnings season in the U.S. is going to be very disappointing, causing stock prices to be weaker, and that will put pressure on the other risk assets, like currencies, and commodities…

But it doesn’t have to be that way! For as long as I could remember, well, back to 1992, when I began dealing currencies, I have not seen stocks, currencies and commodities all tied together for any long period of time… Whey they are thrown together now, has not been rationally explained to me by any one! But they are… The markets have done this, and the markets are “never wrong”… And once again, my thought that the markets always do what they are supposed to (which in this case would be a split of currencies and commodities from stocks), just not “when”!

So… Even though we’ve seen signs of the “break-up” the link / tie is still there, maybe not as strong, but still there…

So… I can hear you asking… “Hey Chuck, what’s it going to take to get these asset classes to break the link to each other?” Whoa there partner! You’ve learned well grasshopper, what a wonderfully crafted, and well thought out questions! Thank you sensei… You’ve trained me well!

OK, enough of all that! Let’s see… What’s it going to take?… Hmmm… Well, it will take a return to fundamentals… And I don’t think we’ll see that in earnest until the U.S. shows some life, and all the talk about additional stimulus goes away… The more we put 100 miles of desert between the financial meltdown and where we might be going, the better the chances of a return to fundamentals.

OK… There’s a BIG debate going on with the two sides in completely different colored corners… In the Blue corner we have those that fear the $1.1 Trillion in money supply that the Fed has put into the economy, and the fear that the Fed will leave rates too low for too long, thus creating inflation on the other side of this current phase of asset price deflation… In the Red corner, we have those that are true believers of the Fed and that they will be able to remove the stimulus of money supply and low interest rates without even a hint of inflation…

In the Blue corner is where you’ll find me… John Williams… And Morgan Stanley among other notables… In the red corner is where you’ll find a handful of economists, and Goldman Sachs… Speaking of Goldman, you wouldn’t expect them to say anything else but to support the Gov’t / Fed on this would you? I mean, it’s almost like they are related to each other! It gets a little creepy for me… But I think you get what I’m saying here…

And down south in Brazil, where one piece of good news from the country is followed by another, as witnessed by yesterday’s announcement that Moodys was going to review Brazil’s ratings for a possible upgrade, which was followed by a research report from Merrill Lynch. The brokerage that owns a bull, but is now owned by Bank of America, issued a research report saying that “Brazil’s real may gain the most among Latin American currencies in the 2nd half as a rebound in prices of the country’s commodity exports buoy the trade surplus.”

Well… The 1st half wasn’t so darn shabby for the real, as it gained over 16% VS the dollar in the 1st half of 2009… But we must temper this euphoria with the real with a dose of “reality” (get it?) This real is one volatile currency! The wild swings are enough to give the faint of heart a need to grab the heart pills! And… It IS AN EMERGING MARKET! And we all know that EMERGING MARKETS can be trying on one’s patience…

OK, having said that… You can’t deny that Brazil has really turned things around from 8 years ago… And now they’ve teamed up with heavyweights Russia and China, and brought along India, to form the BRIC’s, which have been giving dollar bulls major headaches in recent days as they demand to be a part of the world’s financial discussions, and work together to bring an alternative currency to the world’s stage…

The G-8 meeting that has been on most currency traders’ minds is going on as I write… At this point, China has not been allowed to speak, but they will be given that chance soon enough… Right now, the discussion is going on about how to make oil markets more stable… Hmmm… I’ve got the answer to that one… Find an oil reserve in your country, and then forget about everyone else’s oil problems! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

In Australia overnight, Consumer Confidence is on the rise, even if the currency has taken a step back… Consumer Confidence is up 9.3% in the recent month, following the 12.77% gain in June… Unfortunately, as I said the currency has taken a step back… The A$ has lost not only the 80-cent handle, but the 79-cent handle too, in the last two trading sessions…

All the March through June euphoria regarding a global recovery is getting dragged through the mud right now, and the U.S. earnings season won’t help matters any either… So, watch this currency as a proxy for world economic recovery… It will all be on the sleeve of the Aussie dollar…

Do you know what “shadow inventory” is? Well, it’s the new buzz-word that’s getting quite a bit of attention… Shadow inventory comes in several forms. It includes homes in or close to foreclosure but not yet put up for sale — a number that’s increasing. It also includes homes that owners want to sell but are waiting to put on the market until it improves.

Well… I told you a year ago that the housing problem was being made worse by all the inventory of houses that needed to be sold… And even our Mr. Magoo, former Fed Chairman, Big Al Greenspan, noticed the inventory as being a problem… Well, this shadow inventory could be adding to the already too big inventory… It’s like this “inventory” is hanging over the housing market like the Sword of Damocles!

So according to the data I saw… 3.5 million homes are now for sale… This Shadow Inventory is larger than that! The result, as this inventory comes into the market? Well… It will continue to put pressure on home prices downward… Oh boy! Just what house prices need, more downward pressure!

As this housing meltdown drags on… (and I might add, for those that were drinking the kool-aid, and wouldn’t listen to me when I kept harping about the housing bubble bursting, this has got to be very painful) you can see why there are those (and I’m one) that believe the housing recovery won’t come for some time… Maybe not until 2012! But probably 2011…

And then there was this… Google has announced that they will be selling an operating system to compete with Microsoft… I guess they didn’t take too kindly to Microsoft’s entry into the search engine arena! HA! I say that in jest, as these things take long periods of time before bringing them to the markets, obviously! I just found this story to be interesting…

And did you hear about how the Swiss government said Wednesday that it was prepared to seize UBS client data rather than allow the bank to hand it over to the United States to settle a tax case? Another interesting story…

And finally… The Eurozone printed 1st QTR final GDP results at a negative -2.5%… So… Again, we go back to the conversation regarding who’s car is uglier? The U.S. contraction in the first quarter was -5.7%… And in the Eurozone it was -2.5%…

Oh… And one more thing… I get people all the time telling me that China is fudging the numbers with their growth figures… Well, that may be, but it’s all we have to work from, we don’t live there, we don’t have any idea but what the Gov’t tells us! And the Gov’t told us in April that it was +6.1%, and I fully expect for them to tell us it will have risen to 8% in the 2nd QTR… Just go with it… It’s all we know… It’s not like here in the U.S. where we can see the difference from the reports the Gov’t tells us are true…

OK, on to the Big Finish… This has dragged, uh, I mean carried, no, I mean moved along so nicely that you don’t want it to end… Yeah, that’s the ticket!

Currencies today 7/8/09: A$ .7865, kiwi .6285, C$ .8590, euro 1.3920, sterling 1.6090, Swiss .9185, rand 8.1315, krone 6.5290, SEK 7.6575, forint 199.25, zloty 3.1780, koruna 18.68, yen 94.30, sing 1.4615, HKD 7.7505, INR 48.89, China 6.8325, pesos 13.42, BRL 1.9975, dollar index 80.63, Oil $62.47, 10-year 3.47%, Silver $13.07, and Gold… $921.65

That’s it for today… A crazy day in the currencies yesterday… Glad that’s behind us! Had a nice long talk with my economist friend yesterday. She is always so upbeat about stuff, and I’m always so reality based that we even out the conversation! I look forward to these conversations that take place about twice a year… I wish it were more, but she’s busy, and I’m busy, and there just aren’t enough hours in the day sometimes! I asked the question… If the Gov’t thought AIG was too big to fail, how can they sit there and watch what’s going on in California, the world’s 7th largest economy falling deeper and deeper into the abyss? We came to the conclusion that the Gov’t probably won’t watch it too much longer without reacting… So, there! You were a part of an economist discussion! Made your day, I’m sure! OK… Time to get to work… Let’s say this over and over again this morning… It’s going to be a Wonderful Wednesday!

Source: Back and Forth We Go!

Traders are awaiting fresh direction from the foreign exchange markets after a meeting of G8 leaders later this week.

Spot gold was bid at $922.65 an ounce at 1544 GMT, against $924.00 an ounce late in New York on Monday, having earlier touched a high of $931.55.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased $1.20 to $923.10 an ounce.

With physical demand sluggish despite a price dip, the gold market is largely being driven by currency moves, traders said.

The precious metal edged lower on Tuesday as the dollar  recovered earlier losses against a basket of currencies. The euro, which was earlier lifted by better-than-expected German factory orders, retreated to turn lower.

“The pick-up in the dollar has put some pressure on gold values today,” said David Wilson, metals analyst at Societe Generale. “All commodities are a little weaker, with oil off as well (and) base metals prices still slipping too.”

“Investment demand for gold has stalled, and that has been the key support for gold for much of the first half,” he added.

A stronger dollar reduces interest in gold as a currency hedge, and makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market is looking for any comments on the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency at the Group of Eight leaders’ meeting starting on Wednesday, which could impact on the foreign exchange markets and consequently on gold.

“We have the G8 this week where there is potential for some discussion about the reserve currency… which could have an impact on the currency markets and indirectly on the (gold) price,” said Simon Weeks, director of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia.

WEAKER

Technically, the picture is looking weaker, with gold’s trade down through the 100-day moving average opening up the potential for a move down to $915, Weeks added.

Investment demand remained relatively soft, with holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust , falling 0.36 tonnes on Monday.

Switzerland’s Zurich Cantonal Bank, however, reported modest inflows into its gold and silver ETFs last week.

Physical demand for bullion bars has improved slightly in the last week or so, dealers say, but is far from its peak.

Among other precious metals, silver was at $13.13 an ounce against $13.24. Platinum was at $1,131.50 an ounce against $1,143, while palladium stood at $238.50 against $239.

Both platinum group metals have suffered from the downturn in the car industry, their main consumer. Any sign of a recovery in the sector could trigger a turnaround, analysts said.

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters)

Euro zone economic sentiment improved more than expected in June, data showed on Monday, as the European Commission predicted the worst could be over for the 16-country currency area.

“The ECB will find themselves affirmed that the economy is bottoming out and that the worst is over,” said Joerg Angele, analyst at Bayerische Landesbank.

“It’s bad, but it’s not getting worse.”

The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 1 percent, led by energy companies and financials.

The MSCI world equity index edged up 0.12 percent towards 12-day highs hit on Friday. However, the index is down over 4 percent from the year’s highs set earlier this month.

U.S. stock index futures indicated a slightly higher open on Wall Street.

World stocks have shuffled sideways in the past few weeks as investors have questioned how quickly the global economy will return to growth, giving a boost to battered government bonds and pushing yields lower.

U.S. employment data are due on Thursday ahead of a U.S. holiday on Friday, and the European Central Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank issue policy statements this week.

“With the payrolls coming up, and the ECB and Riksbank, I don’t think there’s a great appetite to take on big risk this week,” said Maurice Pomery, managing director of Strategic Alpha.

Many investors are also sticking to the sidelines as the second quarter winds down and ahead of U.S. and European summer holidays.

CHINA WATCH

The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, dipped 0.05 percent to 79.833, but held off a two-week low struck on Friday.

The euro inched up 0.07 percent to $1.4059 , recouping losses earlier in the session, and the dollar was up 0.16 percent against the yen at 95.35 .

The dollar fell last week after China, which holds nearly $2 trillion of reserves believed to be concentrated in dollars, repeated its calls for an end to the dominance of a single currency in global finance.

China and Brazil said on the sidelines of a weekend meeting of central bankers in Basel they were discussing a currency arrangement to allow exports and importers to settle deals in local currencies, thereby avoiding the dollar.

Pressure from emerging market countries to seek an alternative to the dollar as reserve currency has contributed to weakness in the U.S. currency in recent weeks.

Crude oil rose 0.74 percent to $69.89 a barrel on supply concerns after Nigeria’s main militant group said it attacked a Royal Dutch Shell oil platform.

Euro zone government bond futures rose 20 ticks , helped by strong gains in UK gilts on month-end buying and weak UK data.

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters)

Gold was at $941.75 per ounce at 1256 GMT, up from $938.05 quoted late in New York on Friday. The precious metal earlier hit an intra-day high at $942.50 but is some way off a two week high of $948.20 hit last Friday.

A cautious approach to risk kept global stock market gains in check, while crude held under $70 per barrel following a bearish report on demand from the IEA, sapping gold’s appeal as a hedge against oil-induced inflation.

Analysts said the precious metal was holding onto gains but lacking upward momentum as currency markets would be indecisive until U.S. non-farm payroll data was released on Thursday.

“The dollar is going to be critical, and as long as it continues to weaken that tends to mean that gold will slowly grind higher,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Bank.

“We’re looking at more risk averse behaviour in coming weeks, which we think will push gold higher,” he added.

DOLLAR STEADIES

The dollar slipped after data from the Chicago Federal Reserve showed U.S. economic activity remained extremely weak in May, consistent with a continuing recession.

The currency was under pressure last week following Chinese calls for a super-sovereign global reserve currency.

But the case for a dollar alternative was undermined on Monday when the central bank governor of the United Arab Emirates told Reuters that the prospect was difficult to contemplate and plans to replace the dollar would not succeed.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery strengthened to $941.90 per ounce, up 0.7 percent on the day.

Analysts also said the precious metal could be due for a slight correction following last week’s rally.

“The price of crude oil is still below $70 per barrel, and that (crude) has been a key driver of inflation fears and also the gold price,” said Jesper Dannesboe, an analyst at Societe Generale.

“We had the correction from $1,000 down to around $910, and then another correction upwards. Now I think we’re heading down again,” he added.

Reflecting concern that gold may have lost some of its appeal to investors, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings remained at 1,125.74 tonnes as of June 26, when it fell 0.5 percent.

It is currently down 0.7 percent from a record volume of 1,134.03 tonnes, marked on June 1.

Further undermining physical demand, ETF Securities said the amount of gold it holds to back its Gold Bullion Securities exchange-traded commodity fund had declined 567 ounces on June 26.

Noncommercial net long U.S. gold futures positions fell 5.3 percent to 166,294 lots in the week to June 23 from 175,543 lots, a weekly report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

In other precious metals markets, spot silver eased to $13.96 quoted late in New York on Friday, while platinumdropped to $1,185.50 and palladium rose slightly to $245.50.

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters)

Analysts said a stabilisation in equity markets after U.S. shares tumbled overnight helped the euro to recover after losses the previous day, with European shares holding in positive territory

Concerns about reserve diversification away from U.S. assets also weighed on the dollar after Moody’s said one risk to the U.S.’ triple-A rating is if the dollar is challenged as the main reserve currency.

It said the U.S. rating is safe unless the government is unable to bring debt back down.

Investors will be watching closely to see what the U.S. central bank says on Wednesday about the economic outlook and its debt-buying programme, with markets nervous of the possibility of dovish comments.

“If people want to position themselves ahead of the Fed meeting they are more likely to be short dollar, and that may have helped the euro,” Standard Bank currency strategist Steve Barrow said.

At 1154 GMT, the euro rose 0.9 percent against the dollar to $1.3982 , while the dollar index fell 0.7 percent to 80.311.

Barrow said the Fed statement was unlikely to be overly hawkish and that the market was more likely to respond in the event of a dovish Fed statement. Equally people would be more likely to sell the dollar in the event of a poor U.S. auction than to buy the currency if the auctions go well.

He added, however, that liquidity was very thin, causing currency moves to be more exaggerated.

The market will also be keeping a close eye on the European Central Bank’s first ever one-year refinancing operation on Wednesday, aimed at getting banks lending again.

“Tomorrow’s ECB auction will shed important light on the funding needs of euro zone banks and the prospects for monetary policy,” CMC Markets’ Ashraf Laidi said in a note to clients.

FED EYED

The Fed is expected to hold the target range for its benchmark federal funds rate steady at zero to 0.25 percent, and probably to make no shifts in its asset purchase programme.

Meanwhile, analysts believe the dollar is likely to stay under pressure ahead of the U.S. bond auctions, where low demand could raise concerns about how the country will finance its huge deficits.

“People are wary of buying dollars until the U.S. bond auctions are out of the way,” Stockholm-based SEB currency strategist Johan Javeus said.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.5 percent to 95.40 yen , not far from an earlier three-week low just below 95 yen.

The euro cut earlier losses against the yen to trade up 0.4 percent at 133.45 yen , having earlier fallen as low as 131.41 yen on trading platform EBS, its lowest in a month.

The euro earlier showed little reaction to provisional purchasing managers’ surveys that showed recovery stalling in the euro zone services sector but manufacturers faring better as they ran stocks of goods to new lows.

The market was awaiting U.S. existing home sales data at 1400 GMT and in particular for a U.S. Treasury auction of $40 billion in two-year government debt.

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters)

Spot gold stood at $923.40 per ounce by 1132 GMT, having earlier hit a six-week low at $912.90 in Asian trade. That compared with $921.90 quoted late in New York on Monday.

Traders said that bullion prices, having hit three-month highs recently just shy of $1,000 an ounce, were ripe for the falls seen over the past few days with speculators looking to clear out stale long positions.

But the metal’s traditional role as a hedge against jittery sentiment in other asset classes was also kicking in as investors, spooked by doubts about growth prospects for leading economies, shift into risk-averse gear.

Concerns about reserve diversification away from U.S. assets caused the dollar to turn lower against the euro ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting, after Moody’s said one risk to the U.S.’ triple-A rating is if the dollar is challenged as the main reserve currency.

“Gold is tracking the dollar closely today, but we’ll have to wait for the FOMC statement tomorrow night for the market to choose to move clearly in one direction or another,” said David Thurtell, analyst at Citigroup.

A weaker dollar makes metals and other commodities priced in the U.S. unit cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

Crude oil prices rallied to $68 a barrel on Tuesday ahead of data expected to show a fall in U.S. oil stocks, reversing losses and renewing the appeal of gold as a potential inflation hedge.

“The key driver here is basically crude oil, the dollar and inflation expectations, and I think gold at the moment is pricing in a huge amount of inflation expectations,” said Jesper Dannesboe, an analyst at Societe Generale.

INVESTOR CAUTION

U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose nearly half a percent to $924.80 per ounce on Monday on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Overall investor caution was stirred by the World Bank on Monday, which said prospects for the global economy remained “unusually uncertain” as it cut 2009 growth forecasts for most economies.

“Investor risk appetite has lost forward momentum as the market begins to question the extent to which the green shoots of the financial risk rally have roots in the real economy,” Tullet Prebon said in a note to clients.

“There is nothing like a 3.1 percent drop in the S&P on a day to get the bears out of the woods…, but the joke aside it is beginning to look like those who hoped for a V-shaped recovery will find that we are looking at the tail end of it.”

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings fell to 1,131.24 tonnes as of June 22, down 0.91 tonnes from the previous business day.

It was the first change in the holdings since June 5. The holdings hit a record 1,134.03 tonnes earlier in the month.

In other metals, silver firmed slightly to $13.83 , up from $13.72 quoted late in New York on Monday. Platinumrose slightly to $1,167.50 from $1,159.50, while palladium firmed to $234.50 from $232.00.

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters)