• Existing home sales have increased, but new-home sales are down and home prices continue to fall.
• Orders for durable goods fell in the most recent report.
• Consumer confidence is in the cellar and consumer sentiment also continues to decline.

But the big news was that GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2007 showed an abrupt slowdown.

The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We cannot call this slowdown a recession yet, but the numbers look bad enough to surmise America is near one.

So how is an investor to respond? What is the prudent course when faced with a probable recession?

Are We Really at the Bottom?

As a contrarian investor, this is a question I don’t feel the need to answer.

I know the market is down, which signals a buying opportunity. And I know that empirical studies show it’s impossible to time the market and find the absolute bottom. I would be arrogant to believe I can do what the smartest minds on Wall Street cannot do.

Therefore, I am not in and out of stocks with the latest CNBC breaking story. Instead, I take comfort in the knowledge that today is a good time to buy stocks that I intend to hold for a period of five to six years or more. If you don’t intend to hold your stocks for an extended period, I recommend that you don’t buy equities. Put your money in a CD. The returns in CD’s are miserable right now, but at least you won’t lose money.

Also remember that even in a bear market, some stocks continue to shine. But what types of stocks do you buy when the market is down? There are numerous compelling areas of value in the market. Here are two sectors and three companies that I believe every investor should be looking at for long-term success.

Oil and Oil Service Companies

Speculation is rampant on Wall Street that the stocks of oil firms are too high and need to be sold. I actually consider this negative sentiment a pause in the long-term story of growing appetites around the world for a better life. As the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) continue to move more citizens from poverty to the lower-middle class, the need for more energy and basic materials is exploding.

Even with oil at $80 a barrel, major oil firms are printing money. They have been showing financial discipline and therefore are increasing returns to shareholders. Natural gas supplies are tightening after a return to colder winter temperatures and firms specializing in providing this clean-burning product are throwing off immense amounts of cash. Plus, the oil service stocks have paused even as oil exploration budgets are growing.

Here are a few ideas:

Ensco International (NYSE: ESV) is a global offshore oil and gas drilling contractor and it is benefiting as oil exploration increases offshore. It’s trading at a PE of 9, with year-over-year quarterly growth of more than 12%, and return on equity of 28.5%. This stock is headed higher.

Conoco (NYSE: COP) is the cheapest of the large integrated oil companies. COP is trading just over 10 times earnings. Conoco has had year-over-year quarterly revenue growth of almost 30%. Return on equity is 14%, but cost-cutting and consolidation of past acquisitions is paying huge benefits. Because of a larger exposure to cracking spreads from refining, Conoco will remain healthy even if oil prices slide somewhat.

Chemical Firms

The raw material for most chemicals is petroleum. When oil prices head higher, chemical firms traditionally suffer. In this cycle, price increases have minimized the impact of expensive oil. All across the sector we see tremendous value. So when the entire sector is on sale, buy the best firms.

My money is on Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW).

This giant of the chemical business is trading at a PE of 12.6 and pays a fat yield of 4.6%. So not only does it pay more than CDs, you get a capital gains reward, too, when this bellwether heads higher after the slowdown.

Whether the market is at the bottom, only time will tell. But if you chose stocks wisely for the long term, you need not lose any sleep.

Good investing,

Floyd

Floyd Brown, a regular contributor to Investment U and The Oxford Club, began his highly successful investing career while still in high school… and made his first million before turning 30. Here are five more of his energy picks.