Are consumers’ happy days here again, or are the recent signs that growth in sales, confidence and an overall improvement in the economy just a mirage?

For those of us who predict stuff for a living, this is one of those lovely moments in economics when we know for a fact that only one of two things will happen in the near future. We now know one thing for a fact… that in the first third of the second quarter of 2009, American retailers paid more and sold less, both by price and by unit. Simple arithmetic tells you that this means lower profits.

Foreclosures rise…  Green Shoots, no so green!  Getting on a bus…  Losing a triple A rating? And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

This is the first major report coming out this week, and could have a real impact on the markets. Expectations are for a decline in sales since last month, albeit at a slower rate than previous months.

A.F. analysts clash… can the niche retailer survive the credit crunch?…Crisis begets steadfast citizens… Americans move about the country at lowest rate in 47 years…A long-term outlook on the American stock market…The latest sector to catch Chris Mayer’s attention…U.K. launches historic spending spree, hikes taxes to 50%..

Bill is traveling for the rest of the week, but fear not – we will muddle through without him. A good bit of activity in the markets since yesterday.

Retail sales and inflation took a step backward in March, as dour consumer demand hurt the former and suppressed energy prices stalled the latter.

Currencies trade in a tight range…  All Risk takers… Out of the pool!  Retail Sales really disappoint!  A plethora of data reports today… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Retail sales and inflation took a step backward in March, as dour consumer demand hurt the former and suppressed energy prices stalled the latter.

This promises to be a very busy week with a full calendar of economic reports and earnings announcements, so let’s dive right in and highlight some of the more important ones.