This from Money Morning:

For the 50 million Americans with 401(k) plans – many of them close-to-retirement Baby Boomers – the heavy lifting is just beginning.

In the 12 months after the U.S. stock market hit its record peak in October 2007, more than $1 trillion worth of stock-market wealth held in 401(k)s and other “defined-contribution” plans was eviscerated, The Wall Street Journal reported. The lost wealth is more like $2 trillion if individual retirement accounts (IRAs) are taken into account.

For many, the pain will be especially acute. For instance, workers aged 55 to 64, who have been contributing to the same 401(k) plan for the past 20 years, have seen their the 401(k) account balance plunge by a staggering 25%-plus since the start of 2008, according to research by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Since those figures don’t separate out new cash contributions to the plans, the statistics actually tend to drastically understate the actual level of losses, The Journal reported.

Given that many Americans were already trying to deal with major declines in the values of their homes – and given that thousands of households are dealing with, or are expecting, job losses – this eradication of their retirement savings is taking on a kind of “last straw” quality.

After all, any one of those three things alone  – falling housing prices, loss of incomes due to lost jobs or a retirement plan haircut – is tough enough to rebound from. But the combination of all three is the kind of triple-whammy that can put an entire economy out for the count.

“This is the biggest test that the 401(k) plan has seen to date, and it has failed,” Robyn Credico, head of defined-contribution consulting at Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc. (WW), told The Journal. “We’ve put people close to retirement in a very challenging position.”

There are plenty of ways to react, ranging from indifference to outright panic. Neither extreme will prove productive. However, there are some options in between that will form the foundation of any sound retirement plan rebuilding strategy.

After reviewing a plethora of options, Money Morning offers you the three best ones.

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 1: Don’t Cash Out

Possibly the worst thing you could do to your retirement is cash in your 401(k) – a move that would level your finances come tax time, extend your pre-retirement career by a number of years, and/or reduce your income when you start retirement.

So let’s rule that out immediately. That will put you well ahead of others who didn’t resist this urge, or who were forced to make this unattractive choice due to extenuating circumstances.

In the last two months of 2008, requests to withdraw from retirement plans rose 59% from the same period in 2007.

Magnifying this mistake is the fact that the contributions participants have funneled into their retirement have steadily declined since July, HR consultancy firm Mercer Inc. reported after polling 1.2 million participants with employer-sponsored defined contribution retirement plans.

Luckily – for now – less than 1% of plan participants account for both these declines.

“What should sound the alarm with plan sponsors, however, is the growth trend, not the absolute figures. As most experts would agree, withdrawals from 401(k)-type retirement plans and reducing participant contributions to zero are two actions that are completely counter to preparing for retirement,” Eric Levy, Retirement Business Leader at Mercer, said of the firm’s poll. “This may point to the dire straits that a small-but-growing number of participants find themselves in where withdrawals and zero contribution rates are seen as a type of financial last resort.”

Levy raises the central issue: It’s less of a lack of faith that the markets will bounce back, and more of a basic need for money for daily expenditures.

That’s understandable, and excusable to a large degree. After all, you won’t be able to enjoy retirement if you lose your house in the process of putting away money for later.

But the bottom line is less money contributed now translates into less money you’ll have to enjoy life and meet your basic daily needs after you punch that company timecard for the last time.

Sometimes you have to take one step back before you can take two steps forward.

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 2: Balance and Rebalance

The phrase “rebalance your assets” sounds intimidating. But 401(k) managers and financial planners know their clients aren’t financial wizards.

They know a large portion of 401(k) participants don’t have the time or knowledge to actively manage their plan’s holdings. And they know investors have different tolerances for risk.

That’s why 401(k) plans have asset-allocation models designed to assess a participant’s risk tolerance, manage that risk and maximize returns by setting a percentage for each category of assets. Over time, these ratios can change as some assets surge in value, while others hold steady or even decline.

That, in turn, could skew your asset allocation. Assets that performed well could now comprise 20% of the portfolio’s value, instead of once accounting for 15%, if other asset categories tanked.

Levy says that many employers offer quarterly or semi-quarterly rebalancing programs, as well as some that rebalance automatically.

“Conceptually, you should be regularly looking at the asset allocation of your account relative to your age and risk tolerance,” Levy said. “And [you should be] looking to rebalance that at least on an annual basis if not more often.”

Retirement Rescue Tip No. 3: It’s a Marathon, Not a Foot Race

Since 1947, of the 11 times the quarter-over-quarter change in gross domestic product (GDP) was a minus 4% or more, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was higher by an average of 25% one year later and 35% two years later.

This information especially applies to 401(k) participants. The reason: The more you invest when markets are down, the quicker you will recover the losses you sustained over the past two years.

Just take a look at the following chart.

“The latest projections suggest we’re right in line with historical norms, given that economists expect that the U.S. economy suffered a mind-numbing decline of 4.35% in the final quarter of last year,” says Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “When everyone else believes the worst; that’s when you should be buying.”

For prospective retirees – those who watched as their 401(k) plans trip and fall right before the finish line to their working days – take heart: The markets will rebound. It’s just not clear when. While that may mean you have to stay in the race a little longer, consider this: You’ll be able to keep contributing to your retirement cache, magnifying your retirement war chest when that rebound does come.

For those 40 and under, this is possibly the biggest opportunity to build long-term wealth in your lifetime. Keep saving. And stay focused.

Source: Retirement Strategies: The Three Best Ways to Rescue Your 401(k)

• With Morgan Stanley’s (MS) $2.2 billion loss in the third quarter, the carnage from the credit crisis passed the $1 trillion mark. About 67% of that came from U.S. financial firms, and about 30% from European firms, Bloomberg reported.

• A day after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s deepest rate cut in history, the dollar fell hit fresh lows against other currencies. It fell toward a 13-year low against the yen and a two-and-a-half-month low against the euro, Reuters reported.

• Gold and silver prices rallied yesterday (Wednesday) as the dollar declined. February gold futures climbed 4% to $872.90, while silver for March delivery climbed 7% to $11.45 an ounce on Globex, MarketWatch reported.

• A strengthening yen and plummeting car sales forced Honda Motor Co. (ADR: HMC) to slash its full-year profit forecast by 62%. Japan’s second-largest automaker may also post its first half-year loss in 11 years, Bloomberg reported.

• Trying to cut costs, troubled cell-phone maker Motorola Inc. (MOT) will suspend 401(k) contributions to worker retirement plans, freeze its pension plan, stop some raises and skim the salaries of two top executives.  “It’s a small step in the right direction, but it’s not going to save them either,” Nomura Securities technology specialist Richard Windsor told Reuters. “If you look at the degree the market has deteriorated since they last spoke to the Street, you could conclude that they will need more aggressive actions.”

• Europe auto parts supplier Valeo SA said it will cut 5,000 jobs, 9.3% of its workforce, in face of slowing demand for cars, Bloomberg reported. “For 2009, Valeo anticipates no improvement in production levels compared with the fourth quarter of 2008,” the company said in a statement.

• British retailer Woolworths will close its doors Jan. 5, leaving 27,000 people without jobs unless it finds a buyer. The 99-year-old retail company will close its 807 stores in tranches of 200 starting Dec. 27, Reuters reported.

• Online brokerage E-Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) said it added a net of about 26,000 new accounts in November. However, total customer assets fell 42% since November 2007, and 8% from October, the Associated Press reported.

Global Investing Roundups Thursday, December 18th, 2008

This from Whiskey & Gunpowder:

There has never been a better time than right now to buy stocks. I know what you’re thinking — it sounds strange considering the enormous volatility in the market. But, I’m not talking about just any old stocks. I’m talking about stocks that produce real income.

In these manic times, you need to keep one important idea in mind when stock shopping: dividend yields. If there is one proven way to make money during any market condition, it is investing in companies that offer low, growing dividends. In fact, 97% of all gains in the S&P 500 over the last 80 years have come from reinvested dividends, according to one study.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Deficit Time Bomb

Well, Election Day has come and gone…and our deficits are still there…and growing…

Those deficits are going to wreak more havoc on the economy and individual savings than can be properly imagined.

We’re still offering solutions in our “Personal Bailout Bundle” and it’s still exclusive till Dec 21. Don’t miss out. Just click here to read more.

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If you are sitting on a huge pile of cash in a nice big home that you own outright, go ahead and reinvest your dividends. But if you worry about your bills, dream about helping your kids out more, or just wish you could eat dinner out a few times a week, those dividends can be the best solution.

Take a step back and analyze the situation. When you invest in a dividend-paying stock, you have the option to put those payments back into more stock or cash those checks to boost your lifestyle.

But there is a third option that most don’t even know about…

DRIPing Money into Your Retirement Savings

Many dividend-paying companies offer Dividend Reinvestment Plans, or DRIPs. These plans allow you to “set it and forget it.” Just buy some shares, set up the plan, and let the company do all the hard work. If all things go well, your money — and your stake in the company — will increase and be waiting for you when you retire.

Most investors, however, have no idea that they are allowed to split their investment. Instead of putting all of your shares in the DRIP, you can actually allocate some to pay you via dividend checks and others reinvested. That gives you both the spending power of dividends now and a savings element to work for you until you need it.

Think it can’t get any better? Well, many companies make their DRIPs even more enticing.

Certain companies allow you to both receive dividend checks in the mail and buy more shares for a discount. If you are enrolled in these companies’ DRIPs, your dividends will actually buy you up to 10% more stock every payment.

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The End of Cheap Oil

You wouldn’t think so. After all, oil prices just plummeted…

But the fundamentals are clear as day. Oil is destined to get a lot more expensive.

It’s going to change life in the U.S. and the world…forever…but you can protect yourself and prosper… Click here to take advantage of oil’s temporarily lower prices.

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Matched Gains Without Working a Day for the Company

Here’s how it works:

You want to invest in Company A. That company wants you to reinvest your dividends back into more shares. So, they offer — as a benefit for signing up for their DRIP — a market discount on every purchase. Company A will take your shares and sign you up for this plan. When the dividends come out, they’ll reinvest them by buying more shares for you at a 10% discount to the market price.

It’s as if the company was matching 10% of your investment just like an employer-based 401(k). Here’s the best part: Most companies will let you split your shares into half “pay now” and half “reinvest for later.” So you are collecting current income from half your dividends, while saving for your retirement through an employer-like “matched gains” program with the other half.

From your perspective, it’s exactly like working for the company without ever lifting a finger. You are basically treated as a long-term employee. Better yet, at the end of the day, you still own all of your shares. And shares of companies that offer consistent dividends and DRIPs typically increase in value over a few years. Even in this market.

And you can do this with as many different companies as you want.

There are already over 1,000 DRIPs, most of which allow you to split your shares, and a few hundred of these “matched gains” retirement plans. Many more are jumping on this bandwagon.

It benefits you by giving you current income as well as retirement savings, and it benefits them by stabilizing their share prices.

Who Cares What the Shares Cost?

Of course, you don’t have to do any of this. You can simply invest in a dividend payer and just take your paychecks for life. That’s fine. Either way, you’ll certainly ease your stresses and strains while the economy is floundering.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Get Gold Cheap… Before It Takes Off Again

Gold is giving you another chance to get in for the inevitable ride up at a bargain.

Here’s how to get it at a discount and multiply those gains.

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Income investing gives you options like these that “buy low, sell high” strategies don’t. Perhaps most importantly, income investors benefit from a completely different outlook on the market. They are not worried about share prices. They don’t even mind when prices drop. It just allows them buy more stock.

The most important focus for these investors is the dividend. As long as a company pays its dividend, especially if it continues to grow, the investor is usually happy.

Investing like this is much easier than trying to time the market and worrying about the economy. It actually solves both problems. It gives you a two-pronged attack on today’s hectic market.

Source: The Best Secret Savings Account

These problems should be stated in financial reports. But sometimes they are hidden in plain sight.  A bit of dubious padding in pension plan earnings projections can neatly camouflage millions in shortfall.

By the way—even if you are not buying dozens of stocks for their dividends, this is something good to know. It will help you evaluate those slick plans that brokers, bankers and insurance salesmen hold out to you when you take out life insurance, buy an annuity, set up a 401(k) or do any long-term planning yourself.

Let’s start with a choice: Which would you rather have? $311.80 today to put in a 20-year bond that pays 6% a year? Or would you rather have $1,000 on Nov. 13, 2028?

They are the same. The $1000 is the “future value” of taking $311 today and investing it for 6% per annum for 20 years.

Or to reverse the order, assuming 6% a year return, $214 is the “present value” of $1000 in 2028.

And the 6% assumption? That is the “discount rate.”

The problem with Lockheed Martin and several other companies is that the potential for big pension shortfalls is craftily understated in the discount rates they use in their projections. Lockheed has been using a discount rate of 7.5% for its pension plan returns.

Is that reasonable? No way! Nor should you accept a rate like that in an annuity or life insurance plan’s projections.

First of all, a pension plan should be conservative. It should hold bonds along with blue-chip stocks, and bonds do not pay anything near 7.5% unless they are of poor credit quality and highly risky.

For reality, we’ll go to the guidelines Charles Schwab has published—a 20-year average return for large-cap stocks is 8.2%, and for bonds it’s 4%. If the pension fund is half stocks and half bonds, a reasonable discount rate would be 6.1%. In truth, the balance for pension funds today according to Watson Wyatt and several other firms is 60% stocks. With a 60-40 ratio (bonds to stocks), the discount rate should be 6.5%.

Jiggling with this number makes a huge difference. A million dollars worth of obligation in 20 years can be fully covered with $235,000 in the pension plan today if it really can average a 7.5% return. But if the proper discount rate is only 6.5%, then the fund should have $283,000 in it. That’s 20% more money.

On top of this, many pension fund managers have been switching to more bonds in the past year. If the ratio turns back to 60% bonds rather than 60% stocks, the discount rate should fall to 5.7%, and Lockheed’s pension fund would need 40% more money in it today than it would at a 7.5% discount rate. Ditto any other companies using high discount rates.

This isn’t hard to check. It’s all in a company’s annual report, and often in the quarterly reports. If a company says that it needs to add to its pension fund, or is barely covered, take a second look at the discount rate it is using to be sure it is stating the full measure of the problem.

And you can tell your broker, banker, and insurance salesman to use a reasonable rate in his projections the next time you’re doing some financial planning, too.

Source: Pension Problems Part II

This blog was among the first to warn last month about a proposal to wipe out the tax advantages of 401(k) plans.  During the last week or so, probably because of Mr. Obama’s election, this has caught fire on the Internet.  And like many things that catch fire on the Internet, people are inclined to present the issue in the most dire form imaginable.  So a plan to wipe out the tax advantages of 401(k) plans has morphed into a plan to “confiscate” 401(k) accounts — probably because Argentina’s government did something similar a few weeks ago.

Is it really a confiscation plan?  Well, yes and no.  Let’s unpack some of the nuances, because only then will we have an indication how far this ugly thing might go.

During a hearing last month, Rep. George Miller (D-California), the chairman of the House Committee on Education and Labor, suggested that “high-income” earners be no longer allowed to make tax-deferred 401(k) contributions.  Miller has since back-pedaled on this notion, and nothing has been put in the form of legislation yet.  So the spotlight has now shifted to a proposal by the star witness at the hearing, an econ professor at The New School in New York named Teresa Ghilarducci.

She’s unveiled the plan in conjunction with the left-wing Economic Policy Institute; it’s available in .pdf form on EPI’s website.  The gist of it is this:

1) Wipe out the tax-deferral feature of 401(k)s because it’s mostly the “wealthy” who enjoy that feature.

2) Force everyone to contribute 5% of their income to a “Guaranteed Retirement Account” (GRA) which invests entirely in government bonds and returns an inflation-adjusted 3% a year.  Half of this “contribution” would come from you, half from your employer.  It would be on top of whatever you “contribute” to Social Security.  In exchange for losing the tax advantages of your 401(k) contribution, the government would graciously kick in an extra $600 a year to your GRA.  As Mrs. Bakerman said on The Bob Newhart Show, “Isn’t that nice?”

As awful as all of this is, confiscating existing 401(k) balances and converting them to GRAs is not part of the plan.  Not now.  In her prepared testimony to Congress, Ghilarducci said:

Short term, I propose that since 401(k) accounts and the like are financial institutions — the bank about where 38% of the workforce can intend to save for their retirement — Congress let workers trade their 401(k) and 401(k) – type plan assets (perhaps valued at mid-August prices) for a Guaranteed Retirement Account.

Short-term, then, this is voluntary.  But long-term?  That’s the problem.  Everything about this has a slippery-slope vibe that means you can’t preclude the possibility of a forcible conversion of 401(k)s to GRAs.  And yes, if that were to happen, if everyone’s stock and bond holdings were liquidated in one fell swoop and switched into Treasuries, Dan Amoss is absolutely right — that would bring on a government-guaranteed depression.

Would our Congresscritters and the president do something that mind-bendingly stupid?  Seems far-fetched.  But there’s that Argentine thing.  So you can’t rule it out.  We’ll be watching.

Source: Unpacking The 401(k) Confiscation Rumor

This from Investor’s Daily Edge:

The election’s over. President-elect Barrack Obama won, and some people are worried that he’ll start taxing dividends like income. Have I got news for you… that’s the least of our worries on the dividend front.  Put it in the drawer for next year’s hand wringing.

Because just when you thought the financial news had exhausted all the bad stuff and you had found safety in dividend stocks, I have to give you a heads up. Your stock could be getting a pension fund “margin call.”

I love dividend stocks. These companies have cash, pay cash, and keep the faith with investors for the most part. But some are on the verge of breaking that faith this year. It has nothing to do with mortgages or credit markets – it’s about pension funds in trouble.

And when pensions are sucking up cash flow, your dividends could suffer. Mercer, a pension consulting firm that is part of Marsh & McLennan (NYSE:MMC), already estimates that pension shortfalls will lead to a 10% cut in stock dividends this quarter compared to a year ago.

That’s a big deal. Even the 2003 squeeze on pension funds after the three-year-long post-dot-com bear market didn’t cause that. In fact, this could be the first time pensions have been hit so hard since 1958.

Pension plan contributions are a normal expense that companies handle just as they pay the electric bill and management bonuses. But pension plans are special. The funds are separate from the general coffer and there are rules on how much money the plans must have compared to the benefits they’ll have to pay out. This is true in the U.S., Canada, UK and Europe. And though I will use U.S. examples, British and European stocks are also under pressure.

In the bull market years of the 90s, keeping a pension fund properly funded was no problem for most companies. Their funds were flush with stock, and stocks were going up. In fact, before Enron spoiled everyone’s party, some pension funds were loaded with roaring hot company stock. (The post-Enron limit is 10% in company stock in the company pension fund.) Pension funds were making money.

Obligations were fully covered and then some. Some funds were so flush the companies were able to stop putting money in them for several years. They even showed earnings from pension funds as “other” income on balance sheets, making their earnings look better than they should.

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GE (NYSE:GE) was famous for smoothing its earnings by including pension fund surpluses in its figures. Some critics called this maneuver “vapor earnings.” These vapor earnings fattened the bottom line sufficiently to bring fortunate GE execs an extra 9% in their bonuses.

Now comes today… after a bear market… into a recession. Vapor earnings are vaporizing. As of September 30, S&P 500 companies’ pension funds have lost an average of 11.6%, according to CFO magazine. They are now about 92% funded. That’s just barely OK… for a couple more months.

For many years, U.S. companies only had to keep 90% of the present value of expected obligations in their accounts. The Pension Protection Act of 2006 will raise that “coverage ratio” gradually to 100%. For 2008, the magic number is 92%. And it goes to 94% in 2009. So this 92% funding estimate means that some companies pass muster, and a lot don’t.

Standard and Poor’s says S&P 500 pension plans were $200 billion short of minimum funding levels by the end of September this year. Worse, they were on target to surpass the $219 billion record shortfall of 2003.

Who’s in trouble? What stocks to avoid? Remember that funding a pension is a normal business expense. So it’s not every company that shows a pension obligation that should bother you, but the ones that show likely shortfalls that could overwhelm earnings.

Among the companies with big pension plans that are likely to need a large shot of hard-to-find money are Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), Aetna (NYSE:AET), Boeing (NYSE:BA), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Eastman Kodak (NYSE:EK), Goodyear (NYSE:GT), Ford (NYSE:F) and GM (NYSE:GM).

Those are just the big names. By industry, the most underfunded pensions are concentrated in information technology and healthcare. Utilities also slipped from overfunded last year to coming up short this year.

The good news is that companies have to give you a warning in their financial reports—the bad news is that you have to read the suckers. At least if you do it online, you can use a search and go straight to the “pension” part of Management’s Discussion.

Source: Another Fancy Disaster You Didn’t Need – Pension Fund Vapors

This from the Guardian (UK):

Investors should start seeing the effect on year-end balance sheets, and reforms under the Pension Protection Act of 2006 are likely to complicate matters by forcing companies to spend cash to shore up their plans.

“If your pension plan was invested mainly in equities and equities are off 20 percent, all of a sudden you have a 20 percent shortfall,” William Hernandez, chief financial officer of paint maker PPG Industries Inc , told Reuters in an interview earlier this month.

“It is going to force a huge number of companies into making large contributions next year, at the worst possible time,” he added.

Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index <.SPX> are on their way to record underfunded status and few plans are expected to turn a profit this year, S&P’s senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt said in a note to clients last week.

More from Bill in The Daily Reckoning:

“Downturn Clobbers Public Pension Funds,” says the Washington Post. For example, the California pension system, Calpers, has lost $67 billion over the last 12 months. Government-owned pension systems tend to put about 60% of their funds in the stock market – so they’ve taken big hits, along with everyone else. And most public pension systems were underfinanced even before the stock market turned down.

Retirement financing is going to be a big issue for many, many people – even those who thought they had it in the bag.

Altogether, trillions of dollars’ worth of retirement funds have been lost already. Trillions more are still at risk. After such a long period of growth and credit expansion, baby boomers came to believe that their stocks and their houses were as a good as “money in the bank.” And as recently as 2007, even counting the value of their stock portfolios and their houses, experts found that a high percentage of baby boomers were woefully ill-prepared for retirement. And now their stocks are worth, most likely, about 40% less than they were in 2007…and their houses about 20% less.

And the boomers already have it hard enough without their retirement funds being at risk. The Social Security crisis, as outlined in the companion book to I.O.U.S.A., is projected to only get worse as the years go on. Here’s an excerpt from the book:

“On October 15, 2007, Reuters reported, ‘The latest report by the program’s trustees said by 2017, Social Security will begin to pay more in benefits than it receives in taxes. By 2041, the trust fund is projected to be exhausted.’

“The Federal balance sheet is already unsustainable. And the baby boomers have only begun to retire this year. ‘The baby boomers are not a projection,’ says Senator Conrad. ‘They were born, they’re out there, they’re going to be eligible for social security and Medicare …and yet we can’t pay our bills now.’

“Judd Gregg, the Republican leader in the Senate Budget Committee, puts the looming problems of these unfunded liabilities this way: ‘The only issue more severe than this is the idea that an Islamic fundamentalist would get his or her hands on a nuclear weapon and use it against us. Beyond that there’s nothing more severe than this.’

“Gregg goes on to state that the retirement of the baby boomers represents ‘the potential fiscal meltdown of this nation …and absolutely guarantees, if it’s not addressed, that our children will have less of a quality of life then we’ve had …that they will have a government they can’t afford…and that we will be demanding so much of them in taxes that they will not have the money to send their kids to college or buy a home or just live good quality of life.’

“These grave warnings from leaders in both political parties have largely fallen on deaf ears, but we believe Americans can no longer hide from them. Simple economics dictate that you may be able to spend more than you take in for a long time, but you cannot do it forever.”

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You can get our “Emergency ‘Personal Bailout’ Bundle, which includes not only a copy of the companion text, but the movie itself – months before it will be released to the general public. In addition, you’ll receive our new personal “bailout paycheck” strategy report.

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Source: Mr. Market, Your Fair Weather Friend