For instance, a 5% to 6% contraction in first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will look decent vs. the wrenching 6.3% decline the U.S. economy experienced in the fourth quarter. Mix in some still weak – but improving – corporate earnings season and there may be reason to hope that U.S. President Barack Obama’s prediction of an economic rebound in 2010 may not be off target after all.

Eddie Cohen, a market historian who is chief investment officer for Stavis & Cohen Financial, a Houston-Texas financial-management firm, points out that the U.S. stock market has endured three protracted bear markets since 1900 (1906-1921, 1929-1942 and 1966-1982) and sees evidence that the United States may be ensconced on one of those periods again.

While Cohen sees some positive indicators, he continues to advise that caution (or even cautious optimism) be the order of the day.

“Plenty of questions still need to be answered before we can proclaim an end to the bearishness and a definitive market recovery,” Cohen said. “At least, we have started to see some rays of sunshine on the horizon, and that is encouraging.  Still, this environment is not the time to be a hero.”

But there are three significant wildcards at play here that could keep the market from sinking into an even deeper malaise – and that could, in fact, be a catalyst for higher stock prices and perhaps even an improved economy in the months to come. Those three wildcards include:

• There’s an estimated $4 trillion in cash in investors’ hands on the sidelines – capital that could be drawn in to further pump up the markets, should the recent rally continue.
• The federal government has already committed to funding $11.6 trillion in stimulus initiatives, and the sheer magnitude of that government intervention could play a substantial role in determining just how long this downturn lasts – or how quickly it ends.
• Stocks are, in many cases, currently trading at levels not seen since the late 1990s, meaning the market is dangling bargains too enticing to ignore.

Cohen believes that investors need to remain cautious and to understand that market sentiment can literally turn on a dime, especially if the volatility levels remain high [there's some evidence that volatility has diminished somewhat in the past week, and is currently below what is usually expected for the start of the corporate earnings cycle]. However, the Texas investment advisor also foresees some potentially positive developments on the horizon and believes that patient long-term investors who are willing to ride out the short-term volatility may want to commit some money to stocks in profit from these low valuations.

Given that there is “an estimated $4 trillion in cash on the sidelines right now … as investors become more confident, some of these funds could potentially find their way into equities and help drive the markets higher,” Cohen said.

The Quarter That Was

When 2008 came to a close, investors hoped the nightmare had ended and some normalcy would return to the economy and the markets. It was not to be. During the first three months of the New Year, a $787 billion stimulus package, multiple blueprints for rescuing the nation’s banking system and a honeymoon period for a new presidential administration that was one of the shortest in U.S. history made it very clear that the nation’s economic nightmare was continuing.

Much of the data portrayed an economy in decline despite the promises by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s that better times were coming. The U.S. Commerce Department initially reported that fourth-quarter GDP was down 3.8%, its worst showing in 27 years, though not as bad as many economists had projected. A few months later, however, Commerce Department analysts revised that statistic downward to 6.3% and confirmed that the recession had worsened.

Jobless statistics became the barometer for the nation’s declining economic health, as company after company announced major cutbacks. On Jan. 26 – in a single day so bad that it was labeled as “Black Monday” – about 75,000 jobs were eliminated ad the likes of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), Home Depot Inc. (HD), Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), General Motors and others announced major job cuts. Even before that dark Monday, there had already been 170,000 job cuts announced that month – and that’s after a 2008 that saw the recession claim 2.6 million jobs.

“Some of the worst job losses are ahead of us, not behind us,” Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) senior economist Scott Anderson told USA Today at the time.

One-time global giant Citigroup Inc. (C) fell briefly into penny stock territory and came within a heartbeat of nationalization as the U.S. government finally opted to inject more money into the former financial-sector stalwart. A late-quarter restructuring plan seemed to better position Citi.

Nor did the trouble stop with the banks. Two of the U.S. Big Three automakers – General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler LLC – moved closer to bankruptcy as the government rejected the American carmakers’ plans for reorganizing. Indeed, the Obama administration even “suggested” GM’s CEO pursue other endeavors, and laid down serious guidelines regarding future intervention. Even so, bankruptcy may be unavoidable.

But then a funny thing happened on the way to Great Depression II. Citi, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) each announced promising results for the first two months of the year, surprising investors and igniting a late-quarter stock market rally. In an interesting parallel development, a “surprise” announcement by Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) last week added fuel to that already-existing rally in financial-sector stocks, and in the market in general.

Some confidence returned to the boardroom – at least within the healthcare sector – as major deals involving Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) and Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP) ($41.1 billion) and Roche Holding AG (ADR: RHHBY) and Genentech Inc. (DNA) ($46.8 billion) moved forward.

Electronics retailing giant Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) reported better-than-expected profits as consumer activity suddenly picked up (at least, above the dismal levels of the fourth quarter). The credit markets began to thaw a bit as corporations issued new debt and the U.S. Federal Reserve offered up a plan to buy U.S. Treasuries as a way of keeping interest rates low.

Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 13.3% for the quarter, March was its best-performing month since October 2002. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index declined 3.07%, but enjoyed a March that was actually its best month ever. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 11.67%.

Some of the late-quarter economic reports seem to reflect this brighter outlook. In manufacturing, for instance, factories continued to struggle as industrial production fell to the lowest level in almost seven years, though a favorable durable goods report offered some optimism as the first quarter came to a close.

Home sales likewise offered some cause for optimism, rising in February as buyers took advantage of low rates and a tax-break for first-time homeowners. Retail sales statistics were a bit better than expected – especially after removing dismal auto sales from the mix. And inflation – a much-feared foe with the level of government spending that’s taking place – remained well under control, even as talk of deflation also seemed to subside.

Stocks continued their strong run, even after the quarter closed. Since then, in fact, the Dow has rallied 6%, the S&P 8% and the Nasdaq 8%.

Sound Strategies to Follow No Matter Which Way the Market Moves

Nat Levy, a principal with Houston-based McNeil, Levy & Friedman LP, is a five-decade veteran of the financial-services sector, and has seen his share of uncertainty. In the near term, it rarely pays to prognosticate – so he doesn’t.

“I am unable to predict short-term market or economic movements and don’t know of anyone who can do more than guess at this,” Levy says.

Even so, at a time when many investors are talking about “new rules,” or “new realities,” Levy says it pays to stay the course.

The one prediction he will offer is that some investors will look back on miscues they made today with more than a little regret.

“Right now, we find ourselves in one of those “if only I had…’ periods,” said Levy.  “My one educated guess is that in five years from now we’ll look back and think “If only I had invested in this; if only I had remained invested in that, etc.’.”

Stavis & Cohen Financial’s Cohen points to the usual suspects like automakers and banks as industries that continue to face considerable challenges in the periods ahead.  While he sees signs of renewed housing activity in terms of new and existing home sales, he acknowledges that prices continue to fall each month, foreclosures are increasing, and the newly laid-off workers could exacerbate those trends.

Cohen – like Money Morning – believes that commercial real estate may be the next shoe to drop; vacancies are increasing, rents are under pressure, and banks may not be willing to loan large sums of money to related companies looking to refinance.

Because inflation could become a problem, Cohen says investors should have some exposure to gold in today’s environment.

“The unprecedented level of government intervention has added significant liquidity to the marketplace, but, ultimately may lead to higher levels of inflation,” he said. “Gold can serve as a potential hedge against such price pressures.  Additionally, as the country’s debt and deficit positions mount, the dollar could remain under pressure and gold can be viewed as an insurance policy against a weak currency and the uncertain times faced today and in the future.”

Cohen states that investors can invest in gold directly by purchasing bullion or through funds or exchange-traded funds – one being the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, or ETF, (GLD) that track the price movements of the so-called “yellow metal.” His firm uses a manager who buys bullions and stores it in a vault, which he says gives his firm’s clients the opportunity to access a product whose price moves more in lockstep with the market price of gold, and is even more cost effective than gold funds or ETFs.

In terms of stocks, Cohen believes investors should consider small-cap shares.

“Historically, coming out of recessionary times, small-caps are among the best performing equity asset classes,” he says. “Granted, many of these companies may have struggled during the dire economic times as investors shun anything other than industry leaders. Now may represent a decent time for cautiously optimistic investors to again look at small-cap companies, particularly when combined with some exposure to gold as a hedge against renewed downside pressures on stocks.”

Cohen recognizes that the newly enacted government programs could prove helpful in jump-starting the U.S. economy – which should enable the recent upward move in stock prices to continue. In particular, he sees some successes in the Fed’s attempts to get corporations and municipalities borrowing again.

“The credit markets definitely are showing signs of life,” said Cohen. “In the first quarter, domestic companies issued over $350 billion in new investment-grade paper and interest rate spreads between [corporate bonds] and Treasuries are coming down. Likewise, according to Lipper, investment-grade [municipal bonds] were up 4% to 5% in the first quarter and investor demand for such offerings seems to be on the rise. In fact, the state of California moved up a recent sale of $4 billion in bonds by a day to accommodate the demand for what turned out to be one of the largest tax-exempt offerings since 2007.”

Mortgage-market distress could also create some investment opportunities for investors who do their homework, Cohen says.

“I am a firm believer that challenges create opportunities, and no products have experienced more significant challenges over the past few years than mortgage-related securities,” said Cohen. “Amid the subprime debacle and related credit crisis, all mortgage products have struggled and even the higher-quality paper is being priced as if it is a toxic asset. We use a fixed-income manager who has been buying up more stable mortgage-backed issues at what he perceives to be tremendous values because of the negativity that has enveloped the entire asset class.”

A market historian to the end, Cohen likes to return to what he knows best when attempting to analyze just where he believes the markets will head next.

“Dating back to 2000 through mid-March, the equity market lost about 3% in value, so history may suggest we are about halfway through what some would call a secular bear market,” Cohen said. “During such times, it is quite common to experience periods when markets really take off. In fact, during the last few weeks in March, equities rose over 20% and some investors have pointed to that move as evidence that the market had bottomed and the turnaround had begun. In reality, since October 2007, we have seen six rallies of various magnitudes.”

Source: After a Tough First Quarter, Investors Have Cause For Cautious Optimism

[Editor's Note: This look at the U.S. economy and stock market is the latest installment in a series of Money Morning quarterly reports that will examine such topics as gold, housing and oil. These reports will now be a regular feature at the end of each quarter.]

• Deere & Co. (DE), the world’s largest maker of farm equipment, dropped the most in 20 years after reporting earnings that missed analyst estimates yesterday (Wednesday). The company reported third-quarter profit rose 7% to $575.2 million, but $140 million increase in raw materials and freight costs pushed profit below estimates. Deere stock fell as low as $61 a share before closing at $67.10.

• Genentech Inc. (DNA) yesterday (Wednesday) rejected a $43.7 billion buyout offer from Roche Holding Ltd. (OTC: RHHBY) but said it is open to a higher takeover bid. Roche, which already owns about 55.9% of Genentech, offered $89 a share last month for the California-based company. Several analysts have said Genentech is worth over $100 per share, The Associated Press reported.

• U.S. crude settled up $2.99 at $116 a barrel after a government report showed declines in fuel and crude inventories. U.S. crude stocks fell by 400,000 barrels in the week ended August 8, and gasoline stocks dropped by 6.4 million barrels.

• China Fire & Security Group Inc. (CFSG) said yesterday (Tuesday) that income rose 57% to $6.7 million in the second quarter. Revenue jumped 44%, from $11.5 million a year ago to $16.7 million. China Fire & Security, which makes industrial fire protection products, attributed the increases to total solution contracts and maintenance service.

• Ten exchanges yesterday (Wednesday) agreed to consolidate insider-trading surveillance and investigation efforts, turning over the responsibility to the regulation arms of the New York Stock Exchange and to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority in an effort to cut down on overlap between individually run programs, The Washington Post reported. “I think we all recognize that in a world of electronic trading, where there are more venues and more opportunities where people may be able to hide their activity, consolidating the review of insider-trading activity was critical,” said Richard Ketchum, chief executive officer of NYSE Regulation and chairman of Washington-based FINRA.

• Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) will begin selling the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone, previously only available at Apple and AT&T Inc. (T) retail locations. While Best Buy is not likely to make much on the sale of the phone itself, the electronics retailer should profit from the sale of higher margin accessories, The New York Times reported.

• Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) analyst Guy Moszkowski downgraded four Wall Street investment banks in a research report yesterday (Wednesday), Reuters reported. Citing continued fallout from the credit crisis, Moszkowski cut the ratings of Citigroup Inc. (C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

• Ford Motor Co. (F) announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it expects sales of small cars to increase as it tailors its North American offerings to follow its European models. “Ford already delivers the best small cars in Europe,” said Mark Fields, Ford’s president of the Americas, in a speech at a conference in Traverse City, Michigan, Reuters reported. “Now it’s North America’s turn, and we intend to deliver these small cars profitably.”

Source: Global Investing Roundups Thursday, August 14th, 2008

Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.

Economists hope for another positive showing for manufacturing from the ISM index, especially on the heels of last week’s strong durable goods data. Finally, Exxon-Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) headline this week’s installments in the ongoing earnings season as investors get a reprieve from the weak financial releases and see just how much record oil and gas prices have padded the pocketbooks of those energy-sector executives [Click here for additional insight on Chevron, in Money Morning’s new “Buy, Sell or Hold” feature.]

Market Matters

The Federal Communications Commission late Friday approved the $3.3 billion merger of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR), a move that means the still-nascent industry might actually be able to operate at a profit. [Please click here for a complete news story on this satellite radio merger posted elsewhere in this issue of Money Morning.]

With the immediate threat of a Freddie Mac (FRE)/Fannie Mae (FNM) failure looking less and less likely, investors were able to focus more on the heart of earnings season. Thus far, the results have been mixed (or confusing) at best. Of course, financials took top priority (again) as the nation’s largest bank by asset size, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), saw its profits decline by more than 40%, much to the delight – that’s right, delight – of investors who feared much worse. Wachovia Corp. (WB) followed up with a trifecta of bad news:

• A greater than expected loss.
• A dividend cut.
• And some employee pink slips.

And yet, its stock price was up for the week as investors began to believe the worst of the news may be behind us (a feeling that will only last until the next bit of bad news hits).

Outside of the financial world, investors had plenty of reasons to grin. Heavy equipment-maker Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP), communications staple AT&T Corp. (T) and the world’s biggest drugmaker Pfizer Inc. (PFE) each announced strong earnings. Even Internet retailer Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) shrugged off prospects for weak consumer activity and raised its year-end forecast. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) accomplished what none of its competitors could do by reporting its 69th consecutive profitable quarter, thanks to some “ingenious” hedging moves. On the downside, US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), UAL Corp. (UAUA), and JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) suffered along with the rest of their winged brethren; Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) showed that even discounters can struggle during dire times (apparently consumers can’t afford bulk purchases); and Ford Motor Co. (F) posted its worst quarter – ever. [Please click here for a “Buy, Sell or Hold” analysis of Ford shares elsewhere in today’s issue of Money Morning.]

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) had trouble dealing with the higher gasoline costs, while Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) lowered its outlook for the year. Some reports required a tad bit more analysis. While Apple Inc. (AAPL) rejoiced over its “best June quarter for revenue and earnings” in its history, it disappointed investors with a weaker-than-expected end-of-year forecast.

Toymaker Hasbro Inc. (HAS) benefited from strong demand for “Iron Man” products, though management worried about the holidays as the company finds itself forced to pass along higher gas prices to consumers. Merger talks resurfaced (another sign of business optimism) as drugmaker Roche Holding Ltd. (OTC ADR: RHHBY) will acquire the remaining shares in Genentech Inc. (DNA) it doesn’t already own. Finally, Carl Icahn will have more say in the future of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) deals as he and his “cronies” will be given three seats on that “infamous” board.

Consumers got an even greater reprieve from recent energy woes as oil prices continued their decline, and crude even dropped below $123 for the first time in several weeks. Likewise, gas prices declined to just above $4 a gallon nationally (a drop of 10 cents per gallon) as the higher weekly inventory report revealed a continued slide in demand, and as service stations owners looked to regain those gas-guzzling customers.

While investors tried to make sense over the recent earnings reports, some took solace in the lower energy prices, and hope the “trend” continues as summer travel winds down and the holiday shopping season approaches.

A surprisingly weak housing report put a damper on the newfound optimism from the oil decline and prompted some late-week selling that moved the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index into the red for the week. Still, the general mood seems to be changing, as investors are more willing to dip their toes back into the equity pool – though let’s hope they do so without badly stubbing their toe in the process.

Genetech has formed a special committee of independent directors to evaluate the $89-a-share acquisition offer from Roche, which already owns 56 percent of the US biotech firm.

If the deal does go through it may be bad news for Roche and Genentech shareholders, according to Phase 1 Investor editor Rob Fannon in The Growth Stock Wire. But it would be good news for the biotech industry as a whole…

While I believe the bid is a bad move for Roche – and not a great proposal for Genentech shareholders – this mega-deal is actually good for the entire biotech industry… and its investors.

With Genentech gone, the top of the biotech food chain is empty. Many investors will be searching for new spots to park their biotech cash. And sector valuations are on the rise. Both major biotech indexes – the Nasdaq Biotech Index and AMEX Biotech Index – are up more than 7% in just a few weeks.

Small-cap biotechs are cheap right now. So I’d be willing to bet the sector could jump 25% or more in the coming months. And big-cap names like Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB), Genzyme (NASDAQ:GENZ), and Elan (NYSE:ELN) have jumped to the top of Big Pharma’s short list of buyout candidates.

If you’re thinking of dabbling in the biotech sector, Roche’s bid for Genentech just may be the buy signal you’re waiting for.

Source: The Buy Signal You’ve Waited For

Switzerland-based Roche’s $89 per share cash offer is almost a 9% premium over San Francisco-based Genentech’s Friday closing price. Roche first acquired 60% of Genentech for $2.1 billion in a 1990 deal. Currently, Roche owns approximately 56% of outstanding Genentech shares.

Roche will finance the Genentech deal through a combination of new debt and $9.8 billion (10 billion Swiss francs) in cash.

“The transaction will create a unique opportunity to evolve Roche’s hub-and-spoke model into a structure that allows us to strengthen the focus on innovation and accelerate the search for new solutions for unmet medical needs,” Roche Chairman Franz Humer said in a company statement announcing the offer. “Combining the strengths of Roche and Genentech will create significant value and result in benefits for patients, employees and shareholders.”

This offer represents a reversal in Roche’s prior treatment of subsidiaries. In the past, Roche has opted to allow subsidiaries such as Genentech and China-based Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. to maintain some autonomy. However, Roche feels Genentech’s advancement from a biotech research operation into a more full-service pharmaceutical firm makes now the right time to buy.

“There has always been a strategic view that Genentech should remain independent to guard its ability to innovate,” Andreas Theisen, who covers the pharmaceutical sector at WestLB Equity Markets in Düsseldorf, told The International Herald Tribune. “Still, from a business perspective, it’s not an irrational move. Roche has its own U.S. infrastructure, so there are straight dollar benefits to combining the two businesses.”

In addition to extending Roche’s presence in the U.S. market, the company expects cost saving of $750 million – $850 million each year after the Genentech acquisition.

“We will be better able to share technologies and expertise in pharmaceuticals and diagnostics across the group and broaden the mutual access to the external innovation networks of both companies,” Roche Chief Executive Severin Schwan said after the announcement.

The timing of the deal couldn’t be better for the Switzerland-based Roche, as the deal represents yet another foreign firm looking to snap up prime U.S. assets at a reasonable price.

“This makes a lot of sense,” Beatrice Kunz, a portfolio manager at Zurich-based Clariden Leu who helps manage $147 billion in assets, including shares of Roche. “The weak dollar and the fact that they are not paying a huge premium make this rather attractive.”

But some analysts feel Roche will have to up its offer to entice Genentech shareholders to approve the deal. French bank Societe Generale SA (OTC ADR: SCGLY) speculated in a research note that a higher offer would be needed since Roche did not meet with Genentech management prior to announcing its offer and Genentech stock had traded as high as $100 as recently as 2005, MarketWatch reported.

Source:  Switzerland’s Roche Makes $43.7 Billion Offer for U.S. Biotech Pioneer Genentech

• Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd said yesterday (Thursday) that it would buy Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MLNM) for $8.8 billion in the largest-ever overseas acquisition by a Japanese drug maker. The friendly cash offer of $25 per share – a 53% premium the closing Millennium share price on Wednesday – is expected to improve the company’s cancer drug business.

• U.S. retail gas prices extended their record run yesterday (Thursday), the national average price of a gallon of gas rose 1.4 cents overnight to a record $3.357 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices have set a string of records in recent weeks, and are 56 cents higher than a year ago.

• The number of workers applying for unemployment benefits fell by a larger-than-expected 53,000 last week the Labor Department said.  Jobless claims fell to 357,000 in the week ended April 5 from an upwardly revised 410,000 in the previous week. Still, the four-week moving average of new claims, rose to 378,250, the highest since October 2005.

• Passenger car sales rose for the sixth straight year in India, where growing demand and tax cuts sent sales up 12% to 1.2 million units from March 31, 2007 to the same day this year. “India’s economic growth story has really benefited the automakers,” R.K. Gupta, who owns shares of carmakers among the $100 million he manages at Credit Capital Asset Management Ltd, told Bloomberg. “Going forward, there are issues. Growth is going to slow in India and the higher interest rates are going to hurt.”

• China’s quarterly trade surplus fell for the first time in more than three years, as exports slowed the nation’s growth. The trade surplus shrank 10.2% to about $41.6 billion in the first quarter compared to the same period a year earlier, Bloomberg reported.

• AMR Corp.’s (AMR) American Airlines announced it canceled 933 flights yesterday (Thursday) to continue inspections on MD-80 aircraft wiring. American has now canceled 2,500 flights since Tuesday, Reuters reported. The carrier estimates 100,000 travelers have been affected by the cancellations.

• Amgen Inc. (AMGN) rose 2.39, a 5.75% increase to close at 43.98 after a ruling from U.S. District Judge William Young that Roche Holding Ltd.’s (OTC: RHHBY) anemia medicine Mircera violates patents owned by Amgen. Roche plans to appeal the ruling. Standard & Poor’s equity analyst Steve Silver said, “any legal delay in Mircera’s launch will continue to be viewed favorably for AMGN, though we expect the shares to remain volatile as the situation continues to unfold.” Silver has a hold ranking on Amgen shares, BusinessWeek reported.

• BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (BJ) stock gained on news that same-store sales rose more than analysts expected with a 6% increase in March, MarketWatch reported. Total sales increased 8.5% to $858.1 million for the month. Shares gained $1.43, a 4.05% increase, to close at $36.76.