Back on March 2, I wrote a bullish piece on copper and detailed that the price had stabilized and that the bearish sentiment was over the top at that time. Copper has rallied nicely since then, so I thought it would be a good time to update you on my view.

In last week’s article, I pointed out three levels of resistance that I thought would keep the S&P in check over the next few months.  I have to admit that so far, that prediction is looking good, but one week does not make a trend.

Well, so far this year the S&P and Nasdaq are both in positive territory, the S&P by a little and the Nasdaq by 10 percent.  It has been a strange path to get to this positive territory with a huge drop in January and February and then a monstrous rally since then.

Over the last few weeks, I have written several articles about asset allocation and how you can’t just buy and hold anymore. 

One of the things I have been asked, and have seen in headlines over the last week, is whether or not this rally is for real. My answer? It’s too early to tell.

Earnings season kicked off last week and the results were mixed. Alcoa disappointed investors and quickly dropped 13 percent in the ensuing days. J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) beat estimates, but continued to fall thanks to ongoing concerns about the banking industry as a whole (I know Andy Gordon is planning an article for tomorrow discussing the continuing problems in the banking industry, so you won’t want to miss that).  Intel reported Thursday night and they met lowered expectations.

Thank goodness it is 2009. The fourth quarter was crazy for the market. The wild swings and incredible volatility were maddening. Most investors don’t want to be reminded of how bad the market was in 2008, but the reminders were apparent in their monthly statements. The good news is that it is over.

As I write to you this week, I am back at my parent’s house in Indiana. I have written before about New Castle and the struggles the town went through back in the ’70s and ’80s. Kind of ironic that I am here when President Bush announces that the automakers are getting a $17 billion bailout.

Investors can now trade triple-leveraged ETFs. That means three times the return (or loss) of the underlying index. Rick Pendergraft says stocks could be in line for a major rally in the first half of 2009. If it does, the Large Cap Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSE:BGU) will ensure huge profits for investors willing to “think big”.

There are some spooky similarities between today and December 1974, says Rick Pendergraft. At that time, oversold stocks began a major six-month rally. That’s why, contrary to popular belief, stocks might just be the best place to be for the first half of 2009. But if history does repeat itself, Rick says investors should expect more trouble in stocks in the second half of the year.