So much for $100 oil. The war between Russia and Georgia — which had zero impact on oil prices last week — suddenly has put a floor under oil as the new week begins, at least for the moment.The proximate reason is the shutdown of oil shipments (and all other shipments) from Georgian ports, coupled with Georgia’s claim that Russia tried to bomb the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that runs from the Azerbaijan to Turkey, through Georgia.

The dispute over TNK-BP erupted last week after the Russian billionaire co-owners of the Anglo-Russian oil joint venture said they planned to sue BP in Moscow and international courts.

Byron King in Energy and Oil looks at the reasons behind the TNK-BP dispute:

The Kremlin has invested heavily in Russia’s image as an energy superpower. During the recent Russian Victory Day celebrations on May 9, many commentators referred to Russia’s energy sector as one of the key elements of Russian power.

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What has really changed?…importing inflation…hoping to prove Friedman wrong…Can the U.S. central bank really begin fighting inflation in a serious way? Ah, dear reader - there’s a cruel twist to this story…The cure for high prices is high prices…and so the global economy lurches forward…and more!

There are those who will tell you that oil is a cyclical business and a global fungible commodity. It rises and falls with the business phase. If you look at a hundred-year chart, it is as obvious as a sidewinder on a sand dune. A sine wave through time — up and down in seven-year cycles.

Short-term speculators are selling Asian stocks in their droves. No more so than in my favourite market of them all: Vietnam.