Stuck In A Range
Jun 17th, 2009 | By Chuck Butler | Category: Financial NewsA Turn Around Tuesday? BRIC meeting doesn’t get covered by the media? Are the Bearer Bonds real or fakes? QTC’s get Gov. backing! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!
A Turn Around Tuesday? BRIC meeting doesn’t get covered by the media? Are the Bearer Bonds real or fakes? QTC’s get Gov. backing! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!
For quite some time I was interested in recommending that my readers invest in Russia. I still had concerns about some political issues and organized crime in the country. Most experts out there tell people to stay away from Russia, so I knew I had to do further research myself.
Gold declined from Hong Kong through the first hour of New York trading on Monday, shedding about $15, rallied back until the noon hour, but then fell right through the Globex to finish at $906.20/oz., down $6.80. Overnight, gold has fallen off.
In the energy market on Wednesday, the price of oil soared more than 11%, with crude for April delivery closing at $47.03/barrel, up $4.70. April reformulated gasoline rose almost 9½ cents, to $1.3457/gallon.
Russia is reeling. GDP is down nearly 9% year-over-year. The ruble has lost a third of its value since September. Unemployment is rising so quickly, protests and riots are breaking out. And yet, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin assures his supporters that “no catastrophe” is in view in 2009.
On August the 8th, Russia declared war on Georgia. By the 9th, it was an all-out bloodbath. Reports show that over 2,000 people have died during that short time and over 100,000 people fled the conflict. As you can see, war is never pretty.
So much for $100 oil. The war between Russia and Georgia — which had zero impact on oil prices last week — suddenly has put a floor under oil as the new week begins, at least for the moment.The proximate reason is the shutdown of oil shipments (and all other shipments) from Georgian ports, coupled with Georgia’s claim that Russia tried to bomb the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that runs from the Azerbaijan to Turkey, through Georgia.
Many investors will want to avoid Russia right now. And they’ll definitely want to avoid Georgia.
The dispute over TNK-BP erupted last week after the Russian billionaire co-owners of the Anglo-Russian oil joint venture said they planned to sue BP in Moscow and international courts.
Byron King in Energy and Oil looks at the reasons behind the TNK-BP dispute:
The Kremlin has invested heavily in Russia’s image as an energy superpower. During the recent Russian Victory Day celebrations on May 9, many commentators referred to Russia’s energy sector as one of the key elements of Russian power.
I spoke on this subject in the middle of April, but there is more news coming. “News of falling oil output has hit Moscow political circles like a bomb.”