Here he tells us that his recommended stocks have “upward potential” and that “The Eastern European energy crisis is far from over… and I believe we will be served well holding on to these stocks for the long term!”
This from Amberger:

Back in November 2008, I went on record predicting an energy stand-off between Russia and Ukraine that would pitch Europe into a deep freeze. (Here’s what I said.) It came to pass on New Year’s Eve, when Russia shut down gas deliveries to Ukraine.

On the surface, this conflict was about natural gas. Russia, through its capitalist arm Gazprom, wants to become the energy monopoly of the EU. Ukraine is in the way: While George Bush was president, the country sought to join NATO and the EU—breaking for good with Soviet-era Russian hegemony. And while the Nordstrom pipeline beneath the Baltic Sea is still in the planning stages, most of the gas destined for delivery in Europe has to pass through Ukrainian pipelines.

And Ukraine may just refuse to play ball.

Because Russia has shifted into a placeholder war pattern within Ukraine—attempting an escalation of the political war between Western-minded President Viktor Yushchenko and the ambitious pro-Russian populist Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

One of our recommended stocks, BMB Munai Inc. (AMEX:KAZ) went up over 31% today. Toreador Resources Corporation (NASDAQ:TRGL) was up 24%. And Total (NYSE:TOT), the main long-term beneficiary, ended the day up a respectable 8%.

Of course, timing is everything, and our initial positions had taken a beating in the collapse of energy prices and foreign equity markets.

But today’s moves validate our initial assessment of these stocks upward potential.

Read the full article here: Gas wars re-ignite in Ukraine!

Oil fell more than $2 towards $34 a barrel on Monday after Russia and Ukraine signed a 10-year gas deal clearing the way for the resumption of supplies to a freezing Europe.

Implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza also eased supply concerns as the market remained under pressure from expectations that the weakening global economy would erode oil demand.

“Right now the economy is dominating,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, analyst at BNP Paribas. “The market is very volatile and the signs are that demand is weakening.”

U.S. crude oil futures for February delivery dipped to a low of $33.89, down $2.62, before recovering to trade at $34.53 by 1800 GMT.

Traders said the February U.S. crude oil futures contract, which expires on Tuesday, also fell because of very high stocks at the delivery point for the U.S. futures contract.

Only just over 3,100 lots were traded on the February U.S. crude contract. The March contract was much more active as more than 31,000 lots changed hands.

London Brent crude for March fell to a low of $43.80, down $2.77, before edging back up to around $44.50.

GAS FLOWS

The agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which set a final price for 2009 supplies, is expected to lead to the restart of flows of Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine within the next 36 hours.

Also easing concern about energy supplies, Israeli forces began to pull out of the Gaza Strip following a tentative truce with Hamas after the three-week war, easing tension in a region which pumps about a third of the world’s oil.

Prices came under pressure on Friday after the International Energy Agency, an adviser to industrialised countries, predicted a fall in world oil demand in 2009.

OPEC, the oil exporters’ group, has cut production three times since September to try to stem falling prices. It might consider reducing output again, Algeria’s oil minister Chakib Khelil said on Saturday.

Oil has collapsed by more than $110 a barrel since reaching a record high of $147.27 a barrel in the summer as the global economic slowdown has eroded demand and consumer spending.

Still, some in the oil market think there is little room for prices to fall much further.

“It looks as if Brent will hold in the current $40-$50 range,” said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Commodities. “I do not anticipate new lows.”

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters)

If you’ve got money, credit and patience, today is your cheapest opportunity buy or refinance a house in at least 38 years.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage carries a rate of 5.01% this morning, the lowest rate of its kind since at least 1971, when Freddie Mac started keeping track. Since the peak of the credit crisis in late October, the 30-year mortgage has plunged almost 1½ percentage points, even past its 5.8% average this time last year.

Yet mortgage applications are only at a six-year high, according to the American Bankers Association. Rates will probably get even lower, consumers suspect, at least until there are some signs of home price stability here in I.O.U.S.A. We agree. The government has already set a goal of 4.5%, and with news like you’ll read below, the market won’t put up a fight.

Friday’s jobs report was even worse than it seemed. For starters, the retail sector shed 66,600 jobs in December — what should have been the best month of the year. Instead, retailers posted their worst December sales growth since 1969, and cut jobs for the 13th month in a row. If they couldn’t profit during Christmas… ummm… the first quarter of 2009 could be horrible.

Also, we note the world’s top two oil service companies — Schlumberger and Haliburton — have announced their first sizable job cuts of the credit crisis.

“That’s bad,” Byron King somberly explains.

“We already have an aging work force in the energy industry. Over 50% of the work force is eligible to retire within the next 10 years. So it’s imperative that the industry hire and train new people. But SLB and HAL are doing the opposite. If you get rid of the oldsters (they’re old & expensive), you lose the corporate knowledge that you need for training. If you lay off the ‘last hired’ (they’re young and don’t know squat), then you don’t have anyone left to train. Something’s gotta give here…

“It’s not like Schlumberger and Halliburton don’t know this. So would they be laying off people if their forecasts were sunny for the coming months or the next year or two? No. If things looked like they were picking up, they’d keep the people so they have enough work force to do the work. They’re laying off because they see a significant period of slow business. Which if you’re SLB or HAL, means less well drilling. And that’s bad for U.S. energy output. Fewer wells mean, eventually, less output, which means scarcity and higher prices.”

And which companies will profit from such an environment? Look no further than Byron’s Energy & Scarcity Investor.

Elsewhere in the oil patch, Russia’s gas dispute with the Ukraine is over for now. After almost a week without Russia’s precious fuel, the EU essentially forced Ukraine to make a deal. The exact terms of the agreement are yet to be revealed — they may never be — but we feel safe jumping to this conclusion: The whole ordeal began when Russia accused Ukraine of stealing gas and demanded higher prices, and we suspect the Ukraine yielded on at least one of these matters.

“Energy, too, is its own kind of capital,” Dan Denning notes. “Vladimir Putin is reminding everyone of that again. Russia supplies Europe with 25% of its natural gas, and 80% of that gets to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines. The Russians say the gas is being siphoned off illegally and then sold at a higher price. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. Who knows?

“The real issue is control of the energy resource and the network for transporting it. One is no good without the other. Both are critical, and happened to be owned by competing interests. And if you’re at the tail end of a long energy logistics network (like, say, the UK), you’ve got troubles.”

Yet for all the troubles in this world, oil is markedly cheaper today. From around $50 two weeks ago, it’s back to just $38 a barrel this morning.

The Dow ended down 1.6% Friday after another dismal jobs report. For the week, most indexes fell 4-5%. The Nasdaq managed the “best” week of the index bunch, down 3.8%

By one metric, the future shouldn’t be TOO terrible for U.S. equities. Check out this chart, sent over by Rob Parenteau of The Richebacher Letter:

“The contraction of the total value of the equity market relative to GDP,” notes Rob, “has reversed nearly the entire premium introduced during the New Economy bubble years.

“If there is a reversion-to-the-mean process under way with respect to the equity market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, the most violent part of the move must be behind us. Given the severe recession developing before our eyes, however, we are in no rush to be buried beneath a landslide of earnings shortfalls, employment reductions and bankruptcy announcements.

“A fiscal push in early 2009 may help stabilize or improve the near-term earnings growth expectations held by professional equity investors, which are already much lower than those offered by brokerage house equity analysts. But the larger question remains: If financialization is not going to be the growth driver for the U.S. economy, what will take its place? If credit booms and busts are going to be restrained by a stripped-down financial system, especially one that is heavily regulated, what will drive earnings growth?”

In 2009, the savvy investor will “confront the reality that is, not the one that should have been,” opines Bill Gross in his monthly investment outlook.

Gross says the key to profits this year is to “shake hands with the government; make them your partner by acknowledging that their checkbook represents the largest and most potent source of buying power in 2009 and beyond. Anticipate, then buy what they buy, only do it first: agency-backed mortgages, bank preferred stocks and senior bank debt; Aaa asset-backed securities such as credit card, student loan and auto receivables.

“These have been well-advertised PIMCO strategies over the past six months, but there are others in clear sight. An Obama administration will quickly be confronted by the need to provide those hundreds of billions of dollars to states and large municipalities. Their requests total nearly a trillion dollars and to think California or NYC would be allowed to fail is, well — unthinkable. Municipal bonds then, selling at historically high ratios relative to U.S. Treasuries, offer attractive price appreciation potential, or at the very least a defensiveness with high carry that a 2½% 10-year Treasury cannot…

“As an additional strategy, global bond investors should recognize the value in high-quality investment-grade corporate bonds in many markets. Yields of 6%-plus for intermediate maturities are still common and readily available.”

Dollar buyers seem unfazed by the U.S.’ precarious future. The dollar index rallied steadily through the weekend, from Friday’s low of 81.6 to 83 as we write. The media pundits tell us this morning that the dollar is stronger because Friday’s jobs report wasn’t as wretched as many feared.

So gold is being punished for the dollar’s latest strength. The spot price took a dive at the opening of the New York market today, falling to $830. That’s about $35 short of Friday’s high.

In our mailbox today: A staggering hodgepodge of some truly bad ideas.

“If there must be a refund and/or stimulus check given to the American people,” writes a reader, “then it shouldn’t be for some lousy $500. What is that going to accomplish? If you really want to get things up and running, then give every taxpaying household and those on permanent disability a check for $150,000. Most people would either pay down or pay off their mortgages and other loans, which then, in turn, would help the banks and lending institutions. The money would get back in the system where it needs to be. And if it doesn’t work? Well, at least we had fun trying to jump-start America. Kind of like a last call on the Titanic, eh?”

“Instead of giving that tax rebate,” writes another, “to be used only for American-made products, as your reader mentioned, due to the fact it doesn’t help out most retailers, give every taxpayer $600 in the form of a gift card just like sold at most retail stores these days. Let’s call it a ‘Stimulus Card.’

“The government would issue through a TARP recipient bank (they owe the taxpayers huge already). The card would have no cash value, so can be used only for purchases or deposits on products (food, restaurants, down payment on a car, toys, clothes, ANYTHING — but due to the nature of gift cards, they can’t be banked, so they wouldn’t be used to pay existing bills, just by the nature of the card (most people, including myself, used the last $600 government stimulus check to pay bills, not spend on new items).

“Put an expiration date of three-six months max on them… to be sure people spend them timely. 100% bang for the buck. To prevent mail theft, the card has to be activated from the phone number used on your tax return or by calling and giving information only Uncle Sam knows. If lost or stolen, just call and cancel and government can reissue a new one, just like stores do already. The systems are in place. Now that wasn’t so tough was it?

“Here’s a way,” suggests our last, “to come to grips realistically with the housing foreclosure scenario that is getting worse nationally: Let the federal government put every house that has a mortgage in line for a federal reserve mortgage. The present owner signs over his house to the FRM agency and is relieved of paying off the mortgage, but has the lifetime right to occupy the property as his principal residence, provided he pays all property taxes and maintenance costs to meet neighborhood standards. The homeowner has given up the right to sell or rent or gift or will the property; the FRMA owns the property. The original mortgage lender takes the loss for tax purposes.

“Of course, many tweaks to the above would need to be in order. But the ultimate justice would be that the mortgage lenders have to live up to the market risks, just as the homeowners unable to pay the mortgage loan will have to forego whatever they paid into the date of federal takeover. All such property becomes publicly owned, a national asset against the national debt. My guess is that this kind of bailout would be acceptable to the American public.”

The 5: $150,000 in cash, a $600 gift card and a “free” house. What could possibly go wrong?

Source: Mortgage Rates, Scary Jobs Details, Investing in 2009, Russian Gas Dispute, and More!

News about a planned U.S. stimulus package helped pull investors into the dollar on Monday but U.S. Treasury prices slumped on fears a price bubble is about to pop in the face of a massive wave of fresh debt.

European equities advanced for the fifth session in a row, spurred by gains in shares of oil companies on the back of rising crude prices. U.S. stocks were mostly lower as investors took profits on the rally that was racked up in thin trading last week.

Oil prices hit a three-week high as Israel’s deepening incursion into Gaza and a Russian gas dispute heightened fears about supplies.

Prospects for a swelling supply of government debt drove U.S. and euro-zone prices down. The U.S. Treasury said it would sell $16 billion of reopened 10-year notes and $30 billion in three-year notes this week.

While the issuance was broadly in line with market forecasts, it underscored this year’s looming surge of debt that will to fund government efforts to rescue the financial system.

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama plans $310 billion in tax cuts as part of a rescue package of up to $775 billion, senior Democratic aides said Sunday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met her Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners to discuss a second fiscal stimulus deal worth up to 50 billion euros ($68 billion).

The 30-year Treasury bond fell nearly three full points in price, pushing its yield up to 2.92 percent, up from a record low near 2.52 percent in December.

“The back-up in yields shows a growing sentiment toward questioning the lower rate environment we are in right now,” said George Goncalves, chief Treasury/TIPS and agency strategist with Morgan Stanley in New York.

The euro hit three-week lows versus the dollar, with weaker-than-expected Italian and Spanish inflation data and tax cuts in Germany expected to pressure the European Central Bank to soon cut rates further.

U.S. stocks fell as investors took profits following last week’s sharp gains.

“Right now we’re just watching and waiting to see if there is any news from the new administration and what type of news it will be,” said Frank Lesh, a futures analyst and broker at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago. “We got a little bit of profit taking here,” he added.

Shares of Apple Inc rose after chief executive Steve Jobs wrote a letter aimed at dispelling investor concerns about his recent weight loss. Shares of the iPod maker rose 4.4 percent to $94.75 in early afternoon trade.

Before 1 p.m., the Dow Jones industrial average was down 79.09 points, or 0.88 percent, at 8,955.60. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 3.27 points, or 0.35 percent, at 928.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 8.52 points, or 0.52 percent, at 1,623.69.

European equity markets were buoyed by the anticipation of further fiscal stimulus, drawing flows away from the safer-haven of government bonds.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares ended 1.9 percent higher at 873.01 points.

The telecommunications sector was one of the biggest gainers on the index on the first full day of 2009 trading for many, with Swisscom (SCMWY) rising 5.2 percent, Cable and Wireless adding 4.6 percent, Vodafone (VOD) up 4.3 percent and Portugal Telecom (PT) rising 4.6 percent.

Sharp losses for the euro, which was down 2.28 percent at $1.3559, also spread to euro/sterling, taking it to 0.9278, well away from record lows for the pound last week and easing momentum towards parity.

The dollar rose against a basket of major trading-partner currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index up 1.74 percent at 82.923. Against the yen, the dollar rose 1.31 percent at 93.43 from a previous session close of 92.220.

Longer maturity government debt fell, but shorter-term debt was little changed to higher. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 34/32 in price to yield 2.47 percent, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond fell 102/32 in price to yield 2.94 percent.

Oil rose, and has gained more than 35 percent since Israel launched its attack on Gaza on Dec. 27, increasing concerns about the supply of crude from the Middle East.

U.S. light sweet crude oil rose $1.11 to $47.45 a barrel.

U.S. gold futures dropped, breaking below $850 an ounce, as investors took profits on the back of a dollar rally and signs of slowing physical demand.

Spot gold prices fell $22.45 to $852.60 an ounce.

Asian stocks rose to a two-month high on hopes massive government spending programs will revive a global economic recovery later this year.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan climbed 1.6 percent to a two-month peak, while Japan’s Nikkei average gained 2.1 percent in a shortened session to reach a two-month high.

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters)