It is encouraging citizens to put at least 5% of their savings into precious metals.
The Chinese government is telling people gold and silver are good investments that will safeguard their wealth. After last year’s meltdown in the stock market, people believe it. After all, Chinese citizens don’t receive government retirement money… and they don’t have company pension plans like people in many other countries do.

This is why folks in China are lining up outside of banks, post offices, and the new official mint stores to buy gold and silver (they especially like silver because it’s cheaper per ounce).

The Chinese attitude toward gold and silver is a striking contrast to the American attitude right now. I don’t recall a TV or radio ad from my congressman or President Obama encouraging me to buy gold or silver. Does your bank sell silver bars? Are gold mints popping up in your neighborhood? Are any of your friends, family, or coworkers scrambling to buy precious metals?

In spite of a few ads on television and satellite radio, buying gold and silver in the U.S. is still largely seen as a fringe-group activity. That’s not the case in China. And in the big picture, there are three distinct trends occurring in China today that many in the Occidental world are not paying attention to.

First, look where China stands as a gold-producing nation.

In 2008, China produced 9,070,000 ounces of gold, exceeding all other countries. Further, its production continues to rise, while many of the top-producing countries are in decline.

Second, China had the lowest per-capita gold consumption of any country over the past half-century. This year, it is widely expected that Chinese demand for gold will surpass that of India. In other words, they’ll also become the world’s No. 1 retail buyer.

Third, the Chinese government has been using its foreign exchange reserves to buy gold – a lot of it – and doing so on the sly. This past April, Chinese officials made a surprise announcement that they had been secretly buying gold since 2003, increasing their gold reserves by 76% to 33,886,000 ounces. The Chinese government now owns 30 times the gold it held in 1990. And China is believed to be a leading candidate to buy some or all of the 12.9 million ounces the International Monetary Fund says it will sell.

But all this production and all this buying isn’t enough…

Even though China is the world’s seventh-largest holder of gold, gold comprises but a tiny fraction of its reserves, as shown in the table below.

What would happen to the gold price if China increased its gold reserves to just 5%? What about 10%? To overtake the U.S. as king of the gold hill, it would have to buy all the gold held by the governments of France, Italy, and Germany combined. Can China really do any of that?

At $1,000 gold, to push China’s gold holdings to 5% of reserves would take $55.3 billion; to 10% would cost $144.4 billion; to be the world’s top gold dog would run $227.6 billion.

Chinese reserves are approaching $2.3 trillion, of which almost 70%, or $1.6 trillion, are denominated in U.S. dollars. The cost to become the world’s biggest holder of gold would be a pittance compared to the amount of money China has available. In other words, money is not a problem.

Combining the country’s massive holdings of dollars and the very real likelihood those dollars are going to lose much of their value, the motivation to buy tangible assets is urgent.

Further, keep this in mind: China’s reserves continue to grow. Therefore, the country must continue buying gold (or consuming its own production) just to maintain the small gold-to-reserves ratio it has, let alone increase it.

In addition to the government buying precious metals, Chinese citizens will continue gobbling them up, too. Demographics alone tell us why.

Government statistics show the average urban household in China has about US$1,300 in disposable income. Multiply that by the number of urban households in China and you come up with roughly $36 billion in available capital.

According to precious metals consultancy CPM Group, about 9.5 million ounces of gold will be turned into coins this year (including “rounds” and medallions). At $1,000 gold, that’s $9.5 billion, or only about one-third of the capital available in China.

The number is more striking for silver: Total coin production this year is expected to hit 35 million ounces, equaling $615 million or just 1.7% of the available capital in China. Of course, a lot of Chinese people want cars and refrigerators, etc., but it won’t take much of a shift of this capital into gold and silver to have a major impact on the global retail precious metals market. It may already be under way.

And long-term projections show the demographic trend won’t slow down: The middle class in China is expected to increase by 70% by 2020. So over these next 10 years, more Chinese and more money will be coming into the precious-metals markets, all at a time when inflation is almost certain to be high, adding to gold and silver’s appeal. Couple this with China’s long-standing cultural affinity for gold and you have the makings for a potentially life-changing gold rush.

If I were a crime detective, I’d say China has the motive, means, and opportunity to push gold and gold stocks much higher.
If you’re interested in taking a stake in China’s booming silver market, make sure to read the latest edition of Casey’s Gold & Resource Report. Jeff has turned up a small company poised to become one of the dominant mining companies in China. This company is sitting on an incredibly rich silver property… it’s heavily owned by its blue-chip management. It’s the one stock to own if China goes “silver crazy.” You can learn about this and all other stocks recommended in Casey’s Gold & Resource Report for just $39 per year. Try it risk-free for 3 months 

What would happen to the gold price if China increased its gold reserves to just 5%? What about 10%? To overtake the U.S. as king of the gold hill, it would have to buy all the gold held by the governments of France, Italy, and Germany combined. Can China really do any of that?

At $1,000 gold, to push China’s gold holdings to 5% of reserves would take $55.3 billion; to 10% would cost $144.4 billion; to be the world’s top gold dog would run $227.6 billion.

Chinese reserves are approaching $2.3 trillion, of which almost 70%, or $1.6 trillion, are denominated in U.S. dollars. The cost to become the world’s biggest holder of gold would be a pittance compared to the amount of money China has available. In other words, money is not a problem.

Combining the country’s massive holdings of dollars and the very real likelihood those dollars are going to lose much of their value, the motivation to buy tangible assets is urgent.

Further, keep this in mind: China’s reserves continue to grow. Therefore, the country must continue buying gold (or consuming its own production) just to maintain the small gold-to-reserves ratio it has, let alone increase it.

In addition to the government buying precious metals, Chinese citizens will continue gobbling them up, too. Demographics alone tell us why.

Government statistics show the average urban household in China has about US$1,300 in disposable income. Multiply that by the number of urban households in China and you come up with roughly $36 billion in available capital.

According to precious metals consultancy CPM Group, about 9.5 million ounces of gold will be turned into coins this year (including “rounds” and medallions). At $1,000 gold, that’s $9.5 billion, or only about one-third of the capital available in China.

The number is more striking for silver: Total coin production this year is expected to hit 35 million ounces, equaling $615 million or just 1.7% of the available capital in China. Of course, a lot of Chinese people want cars and refrigerators, etc., but it won’t take much of a shift of this capital into gold and silver to have a major impact on the global retail precious metals market. It may already be under way.

And long-term projections show the demographic trend won’t slow down: The middle class in China is expected to increase by 70% by 2020. So over these next 10 years, more Chinese and more money will be coming into the precious-metals markets, all at a time when inflation is almost certain to be high, adding to gold and silver’s appeal. Couple this with China’s long-standing cultural affinity for gold and you have the makings for a potentially life-changing gold rush.

If I were a crime detective, I’d say China has the motive, means, and opportunity to push gold and gold stocks much higher.

If you’re interested in taking a stake in China’s booming silver market, make sure to read the latest edition of Casey’s Gold & Resource Report. Jeff has turned up a small company poised to become one of the dominant mining companies in China. This company is sitting on an incredibly rich silver property… it’s heavily owned by its blue-chip management. It’s the one stock to own if China goes “silver crazy.” You can learn about this and all other stocks recommended in Casey’s Gold & Resource Report for just $39 per year. Try it risk-free for 3 months here.

Part of the reason is the company’s high profile on Wall Street – it’s arguably the most popular penny stock out there. And why shouldn’t it be? After all, the company is the exclusive provider of satellite radio and in-car TV broadcasts for almost 20 million paying subscribers in the United States and Canada.

But to assume that all the interest in Sirius XM (NASDAQ:  SIRI) is because of the company’s great growth prospects would be dead wrong. Scores of investors want to see this company crash and burn.

As of last month, almost 5% of shares available to the public were short Sirius XM, and while that might not sound like a lot of shares, it’s 25% more short interest than even beleaguered Citigroup is facing.

Part of the reason for that dichotomy of investor sentiment is the battle between the company’s cash-machine business model and its over-leveraged balance sheet. At present, the $1.4 billion company is sitting on around $5 billion in long-term debt – a number that’s grown 260% in the last year largely as a result of the merger between rivals Sirius and XM.

Can Sirius Scrape up the Cash?

But Sirius XM isn’t insolvent – yet. Last year, the company generated $1.7 billion in revenues, and much higher numbers are all but guaranteed for this year as a result of the merger. Add to that the last-minute $530 million cash infusion Liberty Media Corp. agreed to lend to Sirius XM last month, and this company is certainly adept at eeking by the guillotine.

That skill is part of the reason SIRI shares have appreciated so dramatically in 2009.

In the case of Sirius XM fundamentals (like the company’s income statement and balance sheet) are squarely pitted against its business (like the fact that it provides a great service). Now, more and more, investors are counting on the business side to win out.

After all, the Sirius and XM merger is estimated to generate $400 million in excess costs this year alone.

Believe the Hype

Indeed, media sentiment has even changed for Sirius XM. Where financial writers used to lampoon the flailing company, they’re now standing behind its prospects for turning a profit in 2009.

“Things are going so well for Sirius XM Radio these days that it doesn’t even have to say a word for positive things to happen. All it has to do is sit tight as those around it generate headlines favorable to the satellite-radio operator,” said the Motley Fool’s Rick Munarriz in an article about trends that should be a boon to the Sirius XM bottom line.

Analysts too are flip flopping over to the side of Sirius XM, estimating a narrow loss for the coming quarter and a target price more than 16% above what the stock trades at today.

As investors, we’ll just have to wait until earnings season to see whose side ends up the victor in this battle royale. Whatever the future holds for SIRI’s stock price, the one constant is that the ride is sure to be a wild one. Until then, I’ll just stick to listening to Sirius in my car, not watching it in my portfolio.

Source: Are Investors Finally Getting Sirius?

This type of loss is one of the most common mistakes investors make, but is also one of the easiest to avoid. Take a look at the chart below to see what the situation looks like.

This is a chart of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI). In 2006, they were on a steady downtrend but rallied to move through their 20 and 50-day moving averages in June. In just 4-5 days, Sirius went up nearly 20%. This was simply too far, too fast and here’s why:

The Slow Stochastic and RSI indicators show you how much momentum any given stock has moving up or down. When both of these indicators show extreme conditions (readings above 80 or below 20), they signal a potential reversal of the trend.

In this case, the Slow Stochastic was above 80 and the RSI was near that point as well, meaning the stock was overbought and a reversal should follow. If you followed these indicators, you’d wait to buy stock since you’d know that there was a good chance that the stock would go down in value after you bought.

By using these indicators before you buy a stock, you’ll consistently pay less per share and see profits sooner.

Good trading,

Charles

Source: Don’t Get Caught In the Crowd