You’re probably wondering why a bearish newsletter like Notes would recommend buying real estate. After all, we’ve just experienced one of the severest real estate crashes in history.

House prices are in the gutter. Taxi drivers the world over are bemoaning the fact. And you can’t open a newspaper without reading about homeowners “upside down” with their mortgages.

Of course, it’s because of the almost universal hatred of real estate that we feel it may be worth investing in right now. Here at Notes, we believe that being a contrarian investor is the best way to make money in the markets. And that means being greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

The Wikipedia entry for contrarian investing defines a contrarian as someone who “attempts to profit by investing in a manner that differs from the conventional wisdom, when the consensus opinion appears to be wrong.”

A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispricing in securities markets. For example, widespread pessimism about a stock can drive a price so low that it overstates the company’s risks, and understates its prospects for returning to profitability. Identifying and purchasing such distressed stocks, and selling them after the company recovers, can lead to above-average gains. Conversely, widespread optimism can result in unjustifiably high valuations that will eventually lead to drops, when those high expectations don’t pan out. Avoiding (or short-selling) investments in over-hyped investments reduces the risk of such drops. These general principles can apply whether the investment in question is an individual stock, an industry sector, or an entire market or any other asset class.

Our motto here at Notes is much simpler to understand. As far as we see it, you’re either a contrarian or a victim.
Underground investor Steve Sjuggerud reckons it’s now almost time to buy residential real estate. This from Friday’s DailyWealth:

If you own rental properties and are looking to unload them, you may get a nice tax break out of it, says tax expert Raife Neuman.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said to the Senate Banking Committee that he expects the programs to start by early July, Bloomberg reported.

“Working with the Federal Reserve and the FDIC, we expect these programs to begin operating over the next six weeks,” Geithner said in prepared testimony.

The Public-Private Investment Program is a coordinated effort with the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) to help banks sell as much as $1 trillion in distressed mortgages and other assets.

Announced in March, the Public-Private Investment Program will be funded with $75 billion to $100 billion of U.S. Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) debt guarantees, as well as the funds remaining in the U.S. Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Geithner is betting this plan will finally establish market values for the toxic debt left over from the U.S. housing bust, and that getting the private market involved will minimize the risk that taxpayers will overpay for assets.

“Leverage has declined, the most vulnerable parts of the non-bank financial system no longer pose the same risk, and banks are funding themselves more conservatively,” he said.

TALF Expanded, TARP Reserves Revised

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve announced it would add older real estate to TALF. And Geither reiterated that the Treasury and Fed intend to expand programs to help asset-backed securities markets, such as TALF, Bloomberg reported.

“The Treasury and the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor and enhance the ABS programs to bring in new, more niche asset classes and make sure that the number of eligible borrowers and issuers continues to increase,” Geithner said.

In late March, the Federal Reserve kicked up TALF’s capacity from $200 billion to $1 trillion and began accepting mortgage-related securities as loan collateral.

Geithner also said the Treasury has about $124 billion of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) left, $11 billion less than his previous estimate in March. He also said he expects about $25 billion to be repaid over the next year.

Source: Treasury Selling As Much As $1 Trillion in Bank Assets with Fed and FDIC

My wife’s family has been coming here for centuries, making it a familiar and comfortable place that we enjoy very much.

It’s also a spot that tends to put things into perspective – like the Bank of Japan’s recent decision to keep its key interest rate at 0.5%.

So why is this move by Japan’s central bank important? That’s easy.

We’ve been hearing for years how the Japanese economy is poised for a recovery. And each New Year is supposed to be “the” year – yet it just somehow never seems to happen – at least according to folks who don’t spend as much time here as I do.

Sure Japan went to hell and back during the “Lost Decade” that stretched from 1990 – 2000, but this country’s economy is recovering – even if the securities markets don’t yet reflect this: They’re up only marginally so far this year.

But that speaks volumes about what investors should expect when thinking about Japan. For instance, the beautiful young elevator ladies who used to grace Japan’s top department stores have vanished. Yet, individual customer service remains better than ever.

Many of the so-called boutique shops have also faded into the sunset. But those shops have been replaced by multi-sale retailers and Internet shops, all of which are going great guns.

This suggests companies are becoming more cash sensitive even as they’re becoming more aggressive. So are Japanese consumers. It’s a trend that’s moving Japan along quietly, if steadily.

But what’s really interesting to me after having spent 20 years in and out of Japan is the number of students who now are studying Chinese, as well as English.

Like the Japanese companies and consumers that are driving the “stealth recovery” here, students who want to get ahead are doing all they can to learn more about their neighbor, including the language.

They understand that they have to look beyond the labels that say “Made in China,” and consider the growing Chinese consumer class – especially China’s emerging middle class, which is already 325 million strong.

While some experts claim that the two nations, Japan and China, will never be friends because of World War II era animosity, those with a far longer perspective acknowledge that the two actually were very close – centuries ago. Much of Japan’s writing system, religious roots and even early architecture came directly from China’s royal courts more than 1000 years ago.

The two nations will be close again.

The best way investors can capitalize on this eventuality is not to buy the broader Japanese indices. Those will merely pick up the has-beens, wannabes and never-wases. It’s far better to concentrate on those companies that are already working closely with China.

The companies in this category firmly understand the regional dynamics at play today. But, more importantly, they understand just what the future is going to look like, and are already preparing for business dealings with China – and the Chinese consumer.

Some great choices if you want to cash in include solar-ceramics maker Kyocera Corp. (ADR: KYO), trading giant and independent power plant developer Mitsui & Co. Ltd. (ADR: MITSY), and even Toyota Motor Co. (ADR: TM), which is now the world’s No. 1 automaker, and (as Money Morning just reported) also has branched out into commercial jetliners.

Since I’m scheduled to head back down the mountain shortly, I’m going to close this out (yes, for those of you who are wondering, I really am writing on my laptop thousands of feet above Kyoto) so that I can check in on the summit between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Yauo Fukuda.

It’s the first visit by a Chinese head of state in a decade.

I’ll have more to say about that visit in the days to come. And I’ll be returning to the United States fairly soon, too. I’ll keep you posted.

Source: Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ Has Given Way to the New Asian Reality

In the US — arguably an epicenter of the modern global monetary system — I see a central bank whose powers are constantly expanding. This progression dates back to its birth in 1913, but as recently as 1999 and 2003, parts of the Federal Reserve Act were rewritten and the Fed was given more power to create money.

Today, with progressive calls for action in the face of crisis, the Fed’s tentacles are potentially reaching directly into the credit and securities markets. This week alone, the headlines are rife with news of its “sweeping” new powers under Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s “plan.”

The Federal Reserve is in the midst of another historic interest rate-cutting campaign. Its official policy stance is that it recognizes the inflation risks, but worries more about growth, so it will inflate to sustain “growth.”

Money’s growing on trees

Its message has been, more or less, that money grows on trees, which is why Ben Bernanke’s moniker, “Helicopter” Ben, is catching on with the press. Gold bugs could not be more thrilled. Just recently, I wrote that we are seeing the best of all worlds for gold to shoot straight up a few hundred points.

But wait! “It’s not such a sure thing.” At least that’s what I thought I heard…from a voice in the wilderness. “What do you mean it’s not a sure thing? Look at ‘em flood the markets with liquidity. $100 billion here, a few hundred there.”

As I was about to sign off, the voice continued: “No, they are not inflating. They’re just creating confidence in the credit markets. Look at the ‘money’ numbers,” said the voice. “Forget credit. Look at the level of bank reserves and the adjusted monetary base. They haven’t grown since August. The Bernanke Fed is just pretending to inflate!”

Disinflation?

Perhaps I already knew what the voice was telling me. Like the title character in Tolstoy’s classic novel, The Death of Ivan Ilych, I was doing some soul searching and discovering hidden truths buried deep beneath the surface. The voice was my own, and it was telling me something I had yet to consider.

It has not escaped my attention that the narrow constituents of money supply are not expanding. I’ve written about it.

This disinflation was first apparent as far back as 2005, under Alan Greenspan’s tenure, when M1 growth hit zero percent on a year-over-year basis. He set it in motion through the rate hike campaign. The total value for US M1 has not changed in three years. But our “voice” insists that Bernanke is running a different, more deflationary policy than Greenspan — even though under Bernanke’s reign, since 2005-06, the broad credit aggregates have reaccelerated and the tightening campaign abandoned, and reversed. Clearly, the Bernanke Fed is running a different policy.
But it is difficult to call it a more deflationary one.

Bernanke’s Fed

Okay, so it has kept M1 flat, and slowed the growth in the monetary base a wee bit further (which has no doubt contributed to the crisis). And since August, the Fed has not expanded bank reserves overall, even though it has slashed its policy-setting interest rate by 300 basis points, has taken other measures to ensure short-term liquidity and talks as if it is ready to underwrite almost any insolvency.

We may point out that if the Fed wanted deflation, it would have already arrived. If, for example, Bernanke actually did nothing, the monetary base would have probably shrunk.

At a minimum, the Fed is inflating just enough to replenish erosion in bank reserves and the market’s confidence. The thrust of all of its actions has been to cheapen money and credit and inflate.

That is not to say there aren’t any deflationary forces in the system — just not ones produced by the actions of the Federal Reserve System so far. If there is deflation in the system, stable money proves the Fed is inflating. If it were pursuing a deflationary policy, you’d have seen a few more Bear Stearns by now — and it is unlikely that the broader credit aggregates like M3 and money with zero maturity (MZM) would be expanding so furiously.

Sure, there is a run on risk, and this risk aversion is causing some asset deflation, which in turn is producing a lot of short-term liquidity. So the Fed hasn’t had to create a lot of net new notes to push rates down, yet. Consequently, so far, it is merely underwriting a lot of the market’s current confidence, rather than monetizing it. But it does not necessarily follow from stable money supplies that the Fed is deliberating a deflationary policy.

Today, with progressive calls for action in the face of crisis, the Fed’s tentacles are potentially reaching directly into the credit and securities markets. This week alone, the headlines are rife with news of its “sweeping” new powers under Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s “plan.”

The Federal Reserve is in the midst of another historic interest rate-cutting campaign. Its official policy stance is that it recognizes the inflation risks, but worries more about growth, so it will inflate to sustain “growth.”

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Its message has been, more or less, that money grows on trees, which is why Ben Bernanke’s moniker, “Helicopter” Ben, is catching on with the press. Gold bugs could not be more thrilled. Just recently, I wrote that we are seeing the best of all worlds for gold to shoot straight up a few hundred points.

But wait! “It’s not such a sure thing.” At least that’s what I thought I heard…from a voice in the wilderness. “What do you mean it’s not a sure thing? Look at ‘em flood the markets with liquidity. $100 billion here, a few hundred there.”

As I was about to sign off, the voice continued: “No, they are not inflating. They’re just creating confidence in the credit markets. Look at the ‘money’ numbers,” said the voice. “Forget credit. Look at the level of bank reserves and the adjusted monetary base. They haven’t grown since August. The Bernanke Fed is just pretending to inflate!”

Perhaps I already knew what the voice was telling me. Like the title character in Tolstoy’s classic novel, The Death of Ivan Ilych, I was doing some soul searching and discovering hidden truths buried deep beneath the surface. The voice was my own, and it was telling me something I had yet to consider.

It has not escaped my attention that the narrow constituents of money supply are not expanding. I’ve written about it.

This disinflation was first apparent as far back as 2005, under Alan Greenspan’s tenure, when M1 growth hit zero percent on a year-over-year basis. He set it in motion through the rate hike campaign. The total value for U.S. M1 has not changed in three years. But our “voice” insists that Bernanke is running a different, more deflationary policy than Greenspan — even though under Bernanke’s reign, since 2005-06, the broad credit aggregates have reaccelerated and the tightening campaign abandoned, and reversed.

Clearly, the Bernanke Fed is running a different policy.

But it is difficult to call it a more deflationary one:

Okay, so it has kept M1 flat, and slowed the growth in the monetary base a wee bit further (which has no doubt contributed to the crisis). And since August, the Fed has not expanded bank reserves overall, even though it has slashed its policy-setting interest rate by 300 basis points, has taken other measures to ensure short-term liquidity and talks as if it is ready to underwrite almost any insolvency.

We may point out that if the Fed wanted deflation, it would have already arrived.

If, for example, Bernanke actually did nothing, the monetary base would have probably shrunk.

At a minimum, the Fed is inflating just enough to replenish erosion in bank reserves and the market’s confidence. The thrust of all of its actions has been to cheapen money and credit and inflate.

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That is not to say there aren’t any deflationary forces in the system — just not ones produced by the actions of the Federal Reserve System so far. If there is deflation in the system, stable money proves the Fed is inflating. If it were pursuing a deflationary policy, you’d have seen a few more Bear Stearns by now — and it is unlikely that the broader credit aggregates like M3 and money with zero maturity (MZM) would be expanding so furiously.

Sure, there is a run on risk, and this risk aversion is causing some asset deflation, which in turn is producing a lot of short-term liquidity. So the Fed hasn’t had to create a lot of net new notes to push rates down, yet. Consequently, so far, it is merely underwriting a lot of the market’s current confidence, rather than monetizing it. But it does not necessarily follow from stable money supplies that the Fed is deliberating a deflationary policy.

The Deflation Equation Doesn’t Add Up

So deflation has not set in yet, but our normally credible source is still convinced that Bernanke is secretly pursuing a policy of deflation while pretending to inflate. But from the central bank’s point of view, the costs of such a policy are prohibitive. So why am I still listening to this “voice”?

Because it believes the Fed wants to hijack the gold market… In other words, the Fed is trying to quell the rise in the gold price.

A central bank’s general incentive to dampen gold fever is a given, but why would it want to so bad that it would be willing to risk political suicide? Our voice explains that some of the large bullion banks still hold massive derivative short positions in gold, which they borrowed from the central banks to sell into the market in the ‘90s. We have not heard any of them report large losses on those positions yet.

They are potentially huge.

But are they huge enough to motivate the Federal Reserve to orchestrate a deflation policy in order to save these banks from ruin?

The last genuine deflation in the U.S. (1929-33) wiped out almost all the banks. Are you telling me that the gold shorts held by a few select bullion banks can cause more total pain than a deflation policy?

I doubt it, especially since the central banks are so forgiving on the terms of the gold loans.

This voice is right that the Fed is not expanding narrow money.

It is wrong about the Fed targeting deflation.

So Is the Fed Targeting Gold?

It should be. Bernanke may well be trying to keep the monetary base stable to discourage speculation in the gold and oil markets, while at the same time boosting confidence in dollar-denominated assets.

This kind of a balancing act (or “sterilized” inflation) is not foreign to the Fed’s modus operandi.

In fact, it was well accomplished by Bernanke’s predecessor.

While the idea that the Fed is deliberating deflation in order to undermine gold makes little sense, the fact that the monetary base is not growing is relevant and deserves further monitoring. Regardless of the explanation, when the central bank is not inflating, it is not bullish for gold. I say this even though, empirically, the relationship between money (i.e., M1) growth rates and gold prices is not cut and dry.

If you bought and sold gold based on the requisite changes in M1 growth rates, you’d be on the wrong side of the trade most of the time, at least since the ‘80s. You’d have turned bearish after 2004, missing the last $400 rally. It is important to monitor. But we live in a global world today. The effects of inflation produced by China’s central bank are felt in America, and vice versa.

It’s especially a bad idea to short gold. But it is a good time to pick away at values created by the “Chicken Littles” on the way up to $2,000 — if you believe that the Fed is inflating.

I’m not going to tell you that gold is going to go up whether we have deflation or more inflation. I don’t believe that. I believe gold prices would fall in a monetary deflation. But I don’t expect one soon.

Regards,
Ed Bugos

Greg’s Endnote: With interesting and sometimes confusing new policies coming from our central bank, the future of our currency has never been in more doubt. That’s why you need to know exactly what’s going on and what you can expect. The answers you’re looking for can all be found in a new book written by a three-time New York Times bestselling author. Click here for more…