Market participants shrugged off supply threat news from Nigeria. Royal Dutch Shell reported that it had shut in production at its main offshore oil field after an attack by boat by local militants. The Shell platform produces 200,000 barrels a day.

Instead traders focused on a decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to raise gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices by 17, 18 and 25%, respectively.

“This follows the trend of other Asian countries reducing government fuel subsidies, which should, over time, put a dent in demand,” said analysts at Action Economics.

However, Sean Brodrick, a natural resources analyst for MoneyandMarkets.com, wrote that “oil bears and stock bulls alike are seizing on this news from China like drowning men grasping at lifelines … [but] I hope they can live with disappointment.”

Upping China’s gasoline and diesel prices by 46 cents a gallon, is “probably not enough to have much impact on existing demand,” Brodrick said.

Source: Crude Plunges

House of Cards

Economic theory tries to deal with a limited number of factors and the mechanisms by which they interact. The main factors are population, food, energy, property, and manufactures, all of which are physical realities capable of being counted. They are the beans that bean counters count with. There are four mechanisms of exchange: money, barter, markets, and allocation. These are the mechanisms by which the beans are exchanged.

Different economists have put emphasis on different factors. David Ricardo, the classical economist of the 19th century, was a banker who gave special attention to money; Thomas Malthus, another founder of 19th-century theoretical economics, paid particular attention to population. Indeed, he is the founder of population studies.

~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~

Saudi Arabia Drops a Bomb Shell

With friends like Saudi Arabia, who needs enemies. We’ve long been told by our Middle Eastern “allies” that there is plenty of oil out there for all of us. But now, new supply news is going to disappoint our president and shock out markets.

$4 gasoline is just the beginning. We could be just half way there. Click here for more…

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Karl Marx, the founder of socialist theory, paid attention to manufactures, and to population, seen particularly as labor. The leading 20th-century economists, such as Maynard Keynes, Irving Fisher and Milton Friedman, have been derivatives of the Ricardian or monetarist school, though Keynes was a rebel against classical Ricardian orthodoxy.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to think of all these factors simultaneously. Perhaps there will be a time in the future when some supercomputer will be able to calculate the interreaction of the global economy holistically. We are still far away from that day.

At present, the limitation of the human intelligence means that we can concentrate effectively on only one of these factors at a time. The selection of any one of these factors or interreactions for study draws attention away from other, equally important factors. One can be both a Ricardian or a Malthusian, but one cannot concentrate on both aspects of economic analysis simultaneously without a loss of focus.

However, one can simplify economics by using the different physical factors as a checklist to detect signs of difficulty. That does make economics the gloomy science. At present, the world is suffering from a crisis of overpopulation, with the human population stretching the food supply beyond its limits. Population is continuing to grow, although there is already an inadequate food supply for 6 billion people and famine is growing in Africa. It is possible that the 21st century will replace the 19th as the century of famine.

Food is very closely linked to energy. Food production is dependent on the oil industry, in cultivation, in transport, and in protection against pests. The food price has followed the oil price, to the point at which millions of people cannot afford a minimum food supply. That is already a catastrophe, and the trends are unfavorable. There is also a significant shortage of water.

~~~~~~~~~~~~Special~~~~~~~~~~~

A Hushed and Private Invitation FOR YOUR EYES ONLY. . .

The Agora Financial Reserve is the most intimate, elite inner circle out of our 97,000 paid subscribers.

The Reserve is simple: You get almost every single newsletter and options research service Agora Financial currently publishes for as long as we publish them. You also get almost every single product we launch in the future. You get almost every single special research report we write. For as long as we publish them — or for as long as you want.

And you get all of that — for life — for less than the cost of one year of all of those services. Check it out now…

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Markets have flagged food and energy as danger areas for the world economy, by raising their prices. Property and manufactures are secondary to food and energy, in that their prices can change without immediately affecting the price of food and energy. In fact, there has been a worldwide fall in housing prices, particularly notable in Britain and the United States, at a time of steep increases in food and oil prices. The price of manufactures has been held down by the growth of low-cost Asian manufactures.

There is much discussion of the scale of the global economic crisis. Some people expect it to cause a crisis comparable to the Great Depression, a wiping out of capital values, a liquidation of global debt. We cannot yet be sure, but we can see that the main factors of global economic development are all in difficulty. On the one hand, there is oil at $130 per barrel — on the other, there are banks writing off billions of dollars of assets.

I do not see any basis for economic analysis that would not throw up really alarming signals. These adjustments of the fundamental factors in any analysis put huge pressures on every government. In the 1930s, most governments were destroyed by the slump. In Britain, Labor lost office in 1931; in Germany, Hitler came to power in 1933, as did Franklin Roosevelt in the U.S. I fear that process will be repeated, even if only by democratic defeats. The storm of the world is still rising.

Regards,
Lord William Rees-Mogg

Source: Economic Alarms

To answer those questions we turn to a report published in late March by UBS energy analyst Jon Rigby and his team in London. Their incredibly useful report is called, “Will there be enough production capacity?” UBS has been battered by its huge sub-prime related losses. But their work on where future oil production will actually come from nearly redeems them. They have asked just the right question at the right time, and answered it in detail.

The report reaches a number of surprising conclusions about the global oil market. It also includes a useful database of oil projects scheduled to enter production in the next five years. These are projects which could add meaningful capacity (100kbpd or more) to global oil production. We’ll look at who stands to benefit in a moment. But first, some of the report’s findings [emphasis added is ours]:

• “Declining existing basins, rising costs, increased technical challenges, stretched supply chains, geopolitical blocks and tightening fiscal terms all seem impediments to growing global production capacity for oil and gas, despite the clear pricing signals.
• “There is no obvious wall of new production coming to the market in response to high prices.”
• New projects scheduled to come on-line from National Oil Companies (NOCs) belong mostly to three major firms: Aramco, Petrobras, and Gazprom.
• New project cost is rising and becoming more technologically challenging, especially deep-water.
• “Nominal growth rates tied to global GDP now look more unrealistic as potential upstream growth slows. This appears reasonably consistent with a growing view that oil production may actually not exceed 100Mbbl/d.”

The idea that global oil production may never exceed 100mbbl/d is worth a much closer look. I’ll get to that later. But before we look at the end, let us look at the beginning of the end and where new production might come from as the world’s oil producers try to bridge the gap between 87mbpd and 117mbpd.

The good news is that there IS new production capacity in the pipeline this year and next. Keep in mind that the final investment decision on the projects entering into production this year was made anywhere from 3-6 years ago. That shows you how far in advance you have to plan for new production (assuming you’ve even found oil in the first place).

There is no such thing as just-in-time oil production. But let’s take a look at projects that will come on line between now and 2010. We’ve selected only those projects that will produce more than 200kbp or more:

If you include LNG and the barrels of oil equivalent produced from it, your list expands a little more to include the following projects:

Beyond 2010, the future is murkier. But the UBS team has identified projects for which the final investment decision has been made. Assuming cost blowouts can be avoided and the projects aren’t cancelled, here are some of the bigger projects that could come on-stream between 2011 and 2015:

There are some massive LNG and natural gas projects coming on-stream between 2011 and 2015. Gazprom, Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil all look like big winners, should oil prices stay high and pass through to higher LNG prices.

The new oil finds off-shore in Brazil’s Santos Basin are not included in the UBS report because they are not likely to enter into production during the next five years. They will be difficult to produce in any event. Petrobras says the Tupi find may contain as many as 8 million barrels, while the Carioca field may have 33 billion barrels of reserves, of which about 10 billion could be recoverable, according to Citigroup.

Current Production Trumps Reserves

One UBS claim which may surprise older oil hands is that, “the capacity to produce—not reserves—is critical to energy markets.” UBS does not conclude that current producers should be valued differently that companies with large reserves but current production challenges. But it’s worth thinking about.

They sang the national anthem and raised their fists in victory. Senator Carlos Navarrete, leftist leader of the Mexican senate, was especially joyful. “We triumphed! We triumphed!”he said.

What the victors did not realize — or refused to recognize — is that their “triumph”merely took Mexico one step closer to the brink, to a deep, dark chasm into which the entire economy could fall…

Monday was Cinco de Mayo, the “Fifth of May,” so it’s fitting to touch on Mexico this week. Many believe Cinco de Mayo is to Mexico as July 4th is to the United States, but that isn’t quite true. It’s actually a regional holiday for the state of Puebla. (Mexican independence day falls in September.)

In other news, crude oil hit new record highs above $120 a barrel this week. Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs analyst who first called for a $105 oil “super-spike” three years ago, now sees the possibility of $200 crude in the next 12-24 months.

You might not see the connection between Mexico and the price of crude at first glance. But believe me, the connection is there — and it’s frightening.

Let me explain…

Bigger Than Exxon

Though not a member of OPEC, Mexico is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. Petroleos Mexicanos, or “Pemex,” is the country’s state-owned oil company. Pemex pumps out more oil each year than Exxon.

Needless to say, oil is a key driver for the Mexican economy. The cash flow from Pemex alone pays for 40% of Mexico’s federal spending.

Imagine if the U.S. government drew nearly half its funding from the revenues of just one company. That would be one heck of an important company. You would think the powers that be would do everything in their power to keep the cash flowing in.

You would think… and yet, Mexico’s oil giant is headed for collapse.

According to Bloomberg, Pemex is plagued by “too little investment, high taxes, laws that forbid competition, corruption, and corroding and exploding pipelines.” That’s just for starters.

A Budding Crisis

It’s not as if the Pemex crisis is new. Observers have been sounding the alarm with ever-heightening concern for at least the past decade. In the past few years, though, things have taken a serious turn for the worse. The company’s 110,000 union workers are poorly trained and hard to control. Fatal accidents are increasing.

Worse still, Mexico’s oil fields are running dry.

Take the Cantarell field, for example. Cantarell is Mexico’s biggest field. In fact, it’s the second-largest oil field on the planet, behind only Ghawar in Saudi Arabia. In 2005, it came to light that Cantarell production had declined rapidly. “Fallen off a cliff” is how some might put it, in terms of the speed and suddenness of the drop.

If Cantarell production spirals downward into collapse, then Pemex — and, by extension, the entire Mexican economy — will be in deep, deep trouble. Mexico’s finances have been boosted in recent years by the sky-high price of crude, and those extra dollars have hidden Pemex’s behind-the-scenes problems. But fewer barrels from the ground means fewer dollars in the bank. Eventually the dropoff becomes too big — and too painful — to ignore.

Mexico’s Energy Minister predicts that, without new production, the country could be forced to import light crude for gasoline by 2011. (Most of Mexico’s oil is of the heavy, sour variety.) By the year 2016, Mexican oil exports could plummet from 1.67 million barrels per day, last year’s levels, to a shockingly low 289,000 barrels per day. That’s quite a dropoff.

Think how much the world’s oil thirst has grown these past eight years. Now think how much it will grow in the next eight years. Now consider how tight the supply-demand situation has already become — and imagine pulling another 1.4 million barrels or so off the market.

Too Deep to Contemplate

The funny thing is, Mexico has more oil that hasn’t been tapped yet — maybe a lot more.

Bloomberg again has the details: “The Mexican Energy Ministry estimates 30 billion barrels of oil and gas are sitting below deep water on the Mexican side of the Gulf of Mexico. Yet it’s unclear whether Pemex, which hasn’t been permitted to form partnerships with foreign oil companies, has the technology, money or competence to drill successfully.”

The problem comes down to technology and experience. To conquer the deep water and drill for oil 10,000 feet down, you need a heaping helping of both. Pemex has neither. The company’s engineers are not savvy enough, its technology not nearly cutting-edge enough, to handle the challenge of deep-water drilling in the Gulf.

This is where politics comes in.

Almost all Pemex profit — and as much as 60% of sales revenues — goes straight to the government. At the end of the day, the company is little more than a cash cow for the state. And because the Mexican presidency can only be held for a single six-year term, the holder of that office typically cares little about long-term planning. The focus is on spending for the here and now instead.

The nature of the beast explains why Pemex is poorly outfitted and poorly run. Political promises are expensive and Pemex cash is there for the spending; only scraps are left over for upgrades and maintenance. Can you imagine running a company whose masters have no regard for the future? I can’t. Perhaps that’s why Pemex has had four different CEOs and five chairmen in the past eight years. Most of them threw up their hands and quit in disgust.

It was the spare ribs last night… a favourite, but demanding in terms of mastication. So there I was happily munching away when suddenly… crunch! Perhaps ‘crack’ would be more accurate, as an upper molar succumbed to the pressure. At times like these it’s fortunate to have the necessary help close at hand, which is why I’m grateful my dentist lives three doors down.

Talking of dentists makes me think of something I was reading by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a personal hero now, after only a few pages!) in his book The Black Swan. He recounts begin advised at Wharton Business School to do something scalable in his work. ‘Scalable’ meaning you could generate more income without commensurately more effort unlike, say, some professions such as dentistry. Their earnings are limited by the amount of people they can see who have broken teeth. He dismissed the advice, but wound up in an investment bank on Wall Street anyway. An investment bank must be hard to beat as a scalable business. As Taleb says, it takes as little effort to buy 100,000 shares as it does to buy 100.

But I digress. What happened this week? Well, it was something of a week where ‘past performance is not necessarily an accurate guide to future results’. UK employment levels have never been higher, yet job cuts in retail and the City are starting to mount. In the City 1,300 jobs will go from UBS and Merrill Lynch, and late on Friday Citigroup announced cuts of 9,000 staff worldwide. Home catalogue and educational supplies business Findel plc had a record year last year, but dished out a profits warning on Thursday and duly saw its shares punished.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been in the US. His visit coincided unfortunately with that of the Pope and he’s not Tony Blair, so he was ignored to some degree according to press reports. He’s been talking to the investment banks and asking for transparency so we can all know the worst and get on with our financially-squeezed lives. Around $250bn in subprime related losses has been disclosed, to date, from a total estimated by the IMF and others to be in the region of $1trn.

The unfolding impact of the credit squeeze has seen three-quarters of the mortgage deals available last summer withdrawn, according to the Daily Mail, though mortgage lending rose 5% in March over February. It is also expected to see a huge rights issue announced next week from Britain’s second largest bank, RBS. It is thought £10bn will be asked of shareholders. A sum approaching a third of its market value.

Recommended

30-year City veteran blows lid on secret that could TRIPLE your investment returns!

It’s a secret those in-the-know call the “Invisible Stock Market’.

Brokers, fund managers and financial advisers NEVER tell you about this kind of investment.

But this guy tells you three specific ‘invisible market’ stocks that he believes will soar in the months ahead… even as panic and uncertainty grips the financial industry.

Don’t waste any time. Click here for the full report

Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares; never risk more than you can afford to lose. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary. Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Customer Services: 0207 633 3600.

Gold remains popular as a hedge against bubbling global cost-push inflation driven by ever higher commodity prices and dollar weakness. It traded at $935 late on Friday. Food shortages continue amid panic breaking out among importing nations such as the Philippines and Bangladesh who are struggling to secure necessary supplies. One in the eye for Ricardian economics of specialisation and competitive advantage. These nations if they have any sense will want to be self-sufficient in future. Rice hit a record $1,000 a tonne. Wheat, maize (corn), soybean etc. are similar stories of higher prices. With maize (corn) it has US biofuel demand helping it along.

On the currency markets, the dollar is weak and so is the pound, except against the dollar. The euro continues to strengthen and inflation ticking up to 3.6% will dampen hopes for an interest rate cut and do little to weaken it in the short term.

Finally, there is no sermon from Peter this week as he is away on a well-earned break. Okay, gotta run. The dentist’s chair awaits. Oh joy.

Enjoy your week-end.

Regards,

Rob Mackrill
The Daily Reckoning

Last month, 78 Federal Security Service (FSB) officers raided the Moscow offices of BP and TNK-BP. The raid resulted in the arrest of one TNK-BP employee and his brother, who will both face charges of industrial espionage. Soon after the raid, the Natural Resources ministry said it would check TNK-BP’s largest oil field for environmental violations and the Interior Ministry accused the company of breaking visa rules.

Sources close to the situation, including TNK-BP Chief Executive Robert Dudley, said the raids and subsequent arrest were a “one-off” incident. But many analysts see a more sinister motive behind the crackdown.

Tax claims, corporate malfeasance and government investigations could be just the kind of pressure the Kremlin needs to exert for one of its state-owned oil monopolies – some of which are the most heavily indebted companies in Russia – to acquire a stake in the venture for a relatively cheap price.

TNK-BP is currently co-owned by BP and a group of Russian billionaires. The Russian investors agreed not to sell their combined 50% stake in the company until 2008. But as the agreement nears its end, Gazprom is reportedly encouraging BP’s Russian partners to sell out.

Gazprom, whose chairman, Dmitry Medvedev, will be sworn in as Russian president on May 7, has frequently found itself the beneficiary of government interference in the energy sector.

Two years ago, OAO Yukos Oil Co., formerly one of the world’s largest private oil companies, went out of business after Russia’s Federal Tax Service demanded the payment of $30 billion in back taxes.

Soon after, Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A) was forced to relinquish control of its Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project to Gazprom for $7.45 billion when the Russian government threatened to block investment plans by canceling building permits on environmental grounds.

And just last year, TNK-BP was talked into selling its 62.8% stake in one of the world’s largest gas fields, the Kovytkta field, to Gazprom, after Russian authorities threatened to revoke the company’s license to develop it.

So it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that TNK-BP, which produces close to a quarter of BP’s total oil and natural gas production, could be Gazprom’s next takeover target. It’s also reasonable to expect that Gazprom may want more than to simply replace the Russian oligarchs as junior partners in the venture.

“We think there is a possibility that BP ends up as a minority shareholder in TNK-BP,” analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) wrote in a research note.

Just two weeks after the Moscow raid, BP chief Tony Hayward began making a suspicious set of rounds. He met with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller last Thursday. That meeting was followed by a meeting with Rosneft chairman Igor Sechin, and then another meeting with shareholder Viktor Vekselberg. Vekselberg, along with Mikhail Fridman and Len Blavatnik, is one of TNK-BP’s largest shareholders.

RBK Daily reported earlier this week that Gazprom is seeking a 1% stake in the joint venture from BP, while at the same time buying out TNK-BP’s three Russian shareholders, thereby giving the state monopoly a controlling stake in TNK-BP.

Sources cited by the paper, also said any deal would likely take place after President-elect Medvedev’s inauguration.

“We are all worried there is going to be some political maneuvering in order to relieve BP of the stake,” Colin Morton, a fund manager at Rensburg Fund Management who owns BP shares, recently told Reuters.

Source: http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/08/bp-caving-to-kremlin-pressure-over-joint-venture/