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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Small Cap Companies</title>
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		<title>Increasing Dividends, Higher Total Return Mean Asian Equities Might Be Worth a Look</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/increasing-dividends-higher-total-return-mean-asian-equities-might-be-worth-a-look/16921</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/increasing-dividends-higher-total-return-mean-asian-equities-might-be-worth-a-look/16921#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 19:30:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Eric Roseman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asian Equities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dividend Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Roseman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government Bond Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japanese Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Msci]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small Cap Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury Bonds]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Ten years ago, Asian equities paid pitifully low dividends following the bull market in the late 1990s. But that’s all starting to change as many markets in the region now offer higher dividend payouts than the S&#38;P 500 and many European equity markets…</p>
<p>Asia, unlike major Western markets, already suffered from an economic depression in 1997-1998 as country after country was sucked into a massive currency and debt crisis smashed into the region.</p>
<p>Asia’s quick response to the crisis – mainly thanks to China – combined with easy credit financing from the West helped to lessen the severity and duration of the blow.</p>
<p>Currently, the FTSE Asia-Pacific Large-Cap Index (excluding Japan) yields 3.8% while the Tokyo Nikkei yields 2.7%. Both sectors yield more&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ten years ago, Asian equities paid pitifully low dividends following the bull market in the late 1990s. But that’s all starting to change as many markets in the region now offer higher dividend payouts than the S&amp;P 500 and many European equity markets…</p>
<p>Asia, unlike major Western markets, already suffered from an economic depression in 1997-1998 as country after country was sucked into a massive currency and debt crisis smashed into the region.</p>
<p>Asia’s quick response to the crisis – mainly thanks to China – combined with easy credit financing from the West helped to lessen the severity and duration of the blow.</p>
<p>Currently, the FTSE Asia-Pacific Large-Cap Index (excluding Japan) yields 3.8% while the Tokyo Nikkei yields 2.7%. Both sectors yield more than local government bond markets.</p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 Index currently yields 3% or slightly below the yield on  benchmark ten-year Treasury bonds.</p>
<p>Amazingly, Japanese stocks barely yielded 1% for years until the Nikkei began to hemorrhage starting in 2004. Since then, many Japanese large and small-cap companies have boosted dividends over the last five years, including share buybacks.</p>
<p>Some world-class companies in Japan continue to pay attractive dividends, including Canon (3.4%), Nintendo (5.5%), Nippon Oil (3.6%) and Takeda Pharmaceuticals (4.8%).</p>
<p>What’s truly amazing is how for many decades the United States continued to raise dividend payouts while emerging markets paid little or nothing to shareholders. Now that trend is changing amid the worst credit deflation in 75 years…as banks and other companies chop or eliminate dividends to conserve cash.</p>
<p>Dividends in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index are derived from companies in 14 countries with the top ten dividend-paying stocks accounting for about 20% of total dividends paid. In contrast, the top ten dividend stocks in the S&amp;P 500 Index accounted for almost 33% of all dividends paid by that index in 2007.</p>
<p>According to research compiled by the Matthews Asia Pacific Equity Income Fund, between 2002 and 2007 dividends paid by the constituents in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index grew at a compounded annualized rate of 24% compared with 10% for the S&amp;P 500 Index. That trend is accelerating since 2008 as Asian stocks maintain or boost payouts while American companies reduce or eliminate them altogether.</p>
<p>At some point in the future, it’s inevitable that currencies in Asia will be revalued vis-à-vis the American dollar. That makes dividend investing in the Pacific even more compelling as the total return equation grows more rewarding for long-term investors.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sovereignsociety.com/2009Archives1stHalf/051909AsianDividendsCatchingMyEye/tabid/5675/Default.aspx">Source:  Increasing Dividends, Higher Total Return Mean  Asian Equities Might Be Worth a Look</a></p>
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		<title>5 Penny Stocks for Retirement</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/5-penny-stocks-for-retirement/13347</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/5-penny-stocks-for-retirement/13347#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Feb 2009 12:47:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jim Nelson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Top Story]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Awc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IIIN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Nelson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KELYA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MYE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Penny Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retirement plan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small Cap Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WMT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WWE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XOM]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Honing in on small cap companies, Jim Nelson of the Penny Sleuth introduces to us five of his favorite penny stocks for retirement.  Jim recommends that we invest like a &#8220;one percenter.&#8221;This from Jim:</p>
<blockquote><p>In a few minutes, I’m going to show you five of my favorite penny stocks that offer something I call a “Retirement: Plan B”. Before I get into that, let me touch on a very important topic few think about when investing…</p>
<p>When you put money into a stock, what’s the number one thing you always think? If you answered, “I hope this one goes up,” then you think like 99% of the investors. That’s fine. Most investors will always think that way.</p>
<p>Today, I’d like to introduce you&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Honing in on small cap companies, Jim Nelson of the Penny Sleuth introduces to us five of his favorite penny stocks for retirement.  Jim recommends that we invest like a &#8220;one percenter.&#8221;This from Jim:</p>
<blockquote><p>In a few minutes, I’m going to show you five of my favorite penny stocks that offer something I call a “Retirement: Plan B”. Before I get into that, let me touch on a very important topic few think about when investing…</p>
<p>When you put money into a stock, what’s the number one thing you always think? If you answered, “I hope this one goes up,” then you think like 99% of the investors. That’s fine. Most investors will always think that way.</p>
<p>Today, I’d like to introduce you to the other 1%. The few that fall into this group have one thing in common: they <em>demand</em> their gains. For them, <em>hoping</em> isn’t always good enough.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Into the Psyche of a “One Percenter”</strong></p>
<p>If you’re like me, you have strict demands for your hard earned money.</p>
<p>If your cable goes out, you call the company to make certain the problem is fixed. You wouldn’t pay the bill if your service weren’t working. The same goes for the other expenses in your life. If your cell phone bill showed a strange $200 charge, you would call your provider and have it removed.</p>
<p>And as much as you shouldn’t pay for problems beyond your control, you should also be compensated for your foresight. Let’s say your best friend asked you for $5,000 to start a business. If you see that his business is booming a few months down the road, wouldn’t you say: “Hey, I deserve some of that?”</p>
<p>If this sounds like you, you might have the perfect “one percenter” attitude. And if you care about your money and what you receive in return for it, you are definitely a “one percenter.”</p>
<p>So why don’t you invest like one?</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Introducing “Retirement: Plan B”</strong></p>
<p>When buying a stock, a “one percenter” never thinks, “I hope this one goes up.” It’s simply not his first concern…</p>
<p>No, a “one percenter” is not asking too many questions. He already knows what his return on investment is, how long it’ll take, and how he can spend that money. He’s an <em>income investor</em>.</p>
<p>By income, I mean real investment plans that actually pay you. Most investors aren’t even aware you can invest like this.</p>
<p>These plans are very similar to classic pension plans… except, you don’t have to work for these companies. That’s why I call plans like this: “Retirement: Plan B”.</p>
<p>There’s a lot more to it than just sneaking onto a company’s pension plan. You can actually choose how many you want to pay you. You can start and stop them at any time without early withdraw fees. And, a few of these Plan B companies even match your investment as if you worked for the companies.</p>
<p>Now, you might think only a mega corporation could afford to do something like this. While the list of 987 Plan Bs does include the likes of ExxonMobile (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ExxonMobile">XOM</a>), Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Microsoft">MSFT</a>), and Wal-Mart (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Wal-Mart">WMT</a>), the majority of Plan B companies are small caps (under $1.5 billion market cap). And many of these trade for less than $10 a share, which makes them true penny stocks.</p>
<p>As promised, here are five of my favorite penny stocks that offer the Plan B:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Kelly Services Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=kelya" target="_blank">NASDAQ: KELYA</a>)</strong> – temporary staffing company, which provides over 750,000 people with jobs annually.</li>
<li><strong>Myers Industries Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mye" target="_blank">NYSE: MYE</a>)</strong> – plastic moldings and rubber parts manufacturer.</li>
<li><strong>Insteel Industries Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=iiin" target="_blank">NASDAQ: IIIN</a>)</strong> – steel wire reinforcing products for infrastructure projects.</li>
<li><strong>Alumina Limited (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=awc" target="_blank">NYSE: AWC</a>)</strong> – international alumina and bauxite miner, with limited smelting operations.</li>
<li><strong>World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=wwe" target="_blank">NYSE: WWE</a>)</strong> – a leader in wrestling media.</li>
</ul>
<p>Unfortunately, it’s not as easy as buying shares of these companies. Instead, you have to set up the plan. It should only take three minutes, but you have to know what to ask for.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pennysleuth.com/penny-stock-income-investing/">Source: Penny Stock Income Investing</a></p></blockquote>
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		<title>Bag Double-Digit Profits With Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA)</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/bag-double-digit-profits-with-vanda-pharmaceuticals-vnda/9451</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/bag-double-digit-profits-with-vanda-pharmaceuticals-vnda/9451#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:14:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Laura Cadden</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Biotech Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Laura Cadden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Penny Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pharmaceutical]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small Cap Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sotck market investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VNDA]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>Laura Cadden</strong> says <strong>Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AVNDA" target="_blank">VNDA</a>) is on the verge of a big breakthrough with a drug to treat sleep disorders. She says investors that buy the stock at or below 75 cents will be in line for double-digit gains.</p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>Maryland-based <strong>Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AVNDA" target="_blank">VNDA</a>) has high hopes for its drug VEC-162. This treatment mimics the action of melatonin — the hormone that that regulates the body’s internal clock.</p>
<p>Vanda is testing the effectiveness of VEC-162 to treat sleep disorders.</p>
<p>Over 60 million adults in the U.S. alone suffering from some form of insomnia. Yet only about 15% seek treatment. Some fear side effects like grogginess and dry mouth.</p>
<p>Others are afraid of becoming reliant on a sleep aid. In fact, many&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Laura Cadden</strong> says <strong>Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AVNDA" target="_blank">VNDA</a>) is on the verge of a big breakthrough with a drug to treat sleep disorders. She says investors that buy the stock at or below 75 cents will be in line for double-digit gains.</p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>Maryland-based <strong>Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AVNDA" target="_blank">VNDA</a>) has high hopes for its drug VEC-162. This treatment mimics the action of melatonin — the hormone that that regulates the body’s internal clock.</p>
<p>Vanda is testing the effectiveness of VEC-162 to treat sleep disorders.</p>
<p>Over 60 million adults in the U.S. alone suffering from some form of insomnia. Yet only about 15% seek treatment. Some fear side effects like grogginess and dry mouth.</p>
<p>Others are afraid of becoming reliant on a sleep aid. In fact, many such treatments, including Lunesta and Ambien, are categorized as Schedule IV controlled substances. This indicates that abuse of these drug could lead to physical or psychological dependence.</p>
<p>So far, all indications are that VEC-162 has <strong>no significant side effects.</strong></p>
<p><strong>How’s your circadian rythym?</strong></p>
<p>In clinical trials, participants were asked to initiate sleep five hours prior to their usual bedtines.</p>
<p>Those who took the drug experienced improvements in overall sleep efficiency, and a greater ability to both initiate and to maintain sleep as compared to participant given a placebo.</p>
<p>The drug, in effect, resets the body’s circadian clock that governs the sleep-wake cycle.</p>
<p>Circadian rythym sleep disorders are experienced by shift workers and suffers of jet-lag and this drug could hold the key to relief.</p>
<p>Insiders are buying and so should you!</p>
<p><strong>I recommend you buy shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. <strong>(NASDAQ:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:VNDA">VNDA</a>) </strong>at or under 75 cents and hold on for double-digit gains.</strong></p></blockquote>
<p>Source: <a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/editors-pic/rest-easy-with-vanda-pharmaceuticals-5962.html" target="_blank">Rest Easy With Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA)</a></p>
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		<title>The Most Undervalued Stock on the S&amp;P 500?</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-most-undervalued-stock-on-the-sp-500/1737</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 03:18:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bryan Bottarelli</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aluminum]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity Boom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EPS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GOOG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Molybdenum]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small Cap Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[steel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steel Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TIE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[titanium]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vanadium]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>When you have a market that’s in the process of hammering out a bottom (as I believe we have right now), my “best investing idea” involves carefully adding some of the very best small cap stocks to your portfolio.</p>
<p>But how do you uncover and identify the very best small cap  companies?</p>
<p>Well, the trick is to identify specific market niches that are in the very early stages of growth – and invest in the companies (if any) that are positioned to exponentially grow sales, revenues, and profits when these market sectors take flight.</p>
<p>In this spirit, here are three of the top market niches that I’ve recently identified – and the corresponding small cap stock charts that fit into each powerful category.</p>
<p><strong>Market&#8230;</strong></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When you have a market that’s in the process of hammering out a bottom (as I believe we have right now), my “best investing idea” involves carefully adding some of the very best small cap stocks to your portfolio.</p>
<p>But how do you uncover and identify the very best small cap  companies?</p>
<p>Well, the trick is to identify specific market niches that are in the very early stages of growth – and invest in the companies (if any) that are positioned to exponentially grow sales, revenues, and profits when these market sectors take flight.</p>
<p>In this spirit, here are three of the top market niches that I’ve recently identified – and the corresponding small cap stock charts that fit into each powerful category.</p>
<p><strong>Market Niche: Bullish  on Titanium</strong></p>
<p>I find it amazing that we’re in the heart of a commodity boom – not one in a hundred commodity investors realizes that titanium (not steel) will soon be viewed as <em>“The Metal  of the 21st Century.”</em> In fact, while steel stocks are blasting higher across the board, one small cap titanium stock (listed below) could be one of the best investing opportunity you see all year.</p>
<p>Here’s the situation…</p>
<p>Discovered in 1791 and named after Titans of Greek mythology, titanium is a light, strong, and corrosion-resistant metal with a grayish color. The two most useful properties of titanium are the fact that it’s resistant to corrosion and that it has the highest strength-to-weight ratio of any metal.</p>
<p>In its unalloyed condition, for example, titanium is as strong as steel but <strong>45% lighter.</strong></p>
<p>As you can imagine, this unique combination of strength, light weight, and corrosion resistance makes titanium useful in hundreds of applications. For example, it can be alloyed with iron, aluminum, vanadium, or molybdenum to produce alloys for jet engines, missiles, spacecrafts, petro-chemicals, or desalination plants.</p>
<p>If you’ve bought a new golf club in the last 12 months, odds  are the overweight head on your driver is made of titanium.</p>
<p>And here’s the thing. When you consider the cost benefits of titanium on lifetime basis, the market is quickly discovering that no other metal is as reliable or as economical as titanium.</p>
<p>It’s categorized into the “Nonferrous Metals” group, which is defined as a metal (other than iron) such as copper, lead, zinc, nickel, and aluminum – and this is one of the specific sector niches that I’m bullish on right now.</p>
<p>The top small cap company that’ll capitalize off this  titanium bullishness is <strong>Titanium Metals  (TIE – NYSE). </strong>And in fact, TIE just might be the most undervalued stock on  the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<p>After all, if you run a screen of stocks on the S&amp;P 500 that are down over 30% in the past three months and that also carry double digit earnings growth forecasts for the next fiscal year, the one company with the most attractive readings is TIE!</p>
<p>Their 3-month percent change is -42.5%, yet their Earnings Per Share growth rate currently stands at 35.3%. No other stock, which has fallen over 31%, has earnings per share growth this high. Not even <strong>Google (GOOG – Nasdaq)!</strong></p>
<p>Therefore, you can realistically argue that TIE is the most under-valued stock on the S&amp;P 500 right now. No other company with an EPS growth rate of 35% has fallen so far, and the best part is, most investors don’t realize this fact.</p>
<p align="center"><a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1476686/29544153/847576/6001/" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/img/assets/3713/TIE042908.JPG" alt="Titanium Metals Corp (TIE:NYSE)" border="0" height="226" width="360" /></a></p>
<p>I’m currently recommending shares of TIE in my <strong>Bottarelli Research Small Cap</strong> letter,  and I advise you to pick up some shares as well.</p>
<p>Sincerely,<br />
Bryan Bottarelli<br />
Editor, Bottarelli Research Small Cap</p>
<p><strong>P.S.</strong> If you’d  like more information on <strong>Bottarelli  Research Small Cap, </strong>we invite you to review the letter below:</p>
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		<title>False Dawns, Big Trends, and a Lesson or Two From the Poker Room</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/false-dawns-big-trends-and-a-lesson-or-two-from-the-poker-room/1608</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/false-dawns-big-trends-and-a-lesson-or-two-from-the-poker-room/1608#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Apr 2008 14:54:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Justice Litle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AIG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup Nasdaq]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ishares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[precious metals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell 2K iShares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small Cap Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The broad market tone is mildly optimistic as another week  comes to a close. The Dow, the S&#38;P, and the Nasdaq 100 have all broken  above clear resistance levels; the Dow having done so more convincingly than  the S&#38;P, with the Nasdaq’s breakout the strongest of the three.</p>
<p>The short-term advice seems to be “buy tech and buy  financials.” Pundits are newly excited by glimmers of strength in beaten-up  names like <strong>AIG (AIG:NYSE) </strong>and <strong>Citigroup (C:NYSE)</strong>. Good news from  Google has also helped the tech sector get some oomph.</p>
<p>To go with all this, the dollar has rallied a little in the  past few days. The thought &#8212; or rather hope, at this point &#8212; is that the Fed  may be close&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The broad market tone is mildly optimistic as another week  comes to a close. The Dow, the S&amp;P, and the Nasdaq 100 have all broken  above clear resistance levels; the Dow having done so more convincingly than  the S&amp;P, with the Nasdaq’s breakout the strongest of the three.</p>
<p>The short-term advice seems to be “buy tech and buy  financials.” Pundits are newly excited by glimmers of strength in beaten-up  names like <strong>AIG (AIG:NYSE) </strong>and <strong>Citigroup (C:NYSE)</strong>. Good news from  Google has also helped the tech sector get some oomph.</p>
<p>To go with all this, the dollar has rallied a little in the  past few days. The thought &#8212; or rather hope, at this point &#8212; is that the Fed  may be close to finished cutting rates, and will try out some tentatively  hawkish language in their meeting next week.</p>
<p>You might say that fear is taking a breather here. Precious  metals and treasuries, two natural go-to areas when anxiety levels are high,  are selling off in result.</p>
<p>To which I say, “Bah, Humbug. A pox on your weenie breakouts  and short-term jitters.”</p>
<p><strong>Be Wary of False  Dawns</strong></p>
<p>There’s nothing wrong with a little change in the weather,  of course. Markets have to breathe in and out; nothing goes straight up or  straight down. (Not forever, at any rate.)</p>
<p>The trouble with bear market rallies, though, is that the  optimists are often far too eager to declare victory. Every lull in the action  is a hint that the worst could be over. Every uptick that lasts for more than  two trading days is a sign that the worst has passed.</p>
<p align="center"> <a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/TAI/WTAIJ418/" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/img/assets/3712/20080425_TD_CHART1.gif" alt="Russell 2K iShares" border="0" height="432" width="408" /></a></p>
<p>Take a look at the Russell 2K iShares,  for example. While the big indexes are rallying, the small-stock universe is  still struggling. The green line represents the Russell’s 200-day moving  average; we’re still well below that. Small-cap companies are a better  bellwether for how things are going, in my opinion, because small business is  closer to the pain. The little guy is feeling $3.50 a gallon gasoline a lot  more than some behemoth like Microsoft.</p>
<p>Speaking of behemoths, the large-cap indexes are closer to  their 200-day moving average thresholds, and in some cases flirting with a  crossover. A permabull might look at that and say “Yep, we’re going to take  that maginot line any day now. Just a matter of time!” Whereas the flexible  trader merely raises an eyebrow and notes it might be time to play Whack-a-Mole  again soon.</p>
<p>The problem with the recent shiny-happy talk is that bear  market rallies often last long enough to pull in the foolish or the over-eager…  and then promptly fail when the max number of buyers have been roped in.</p>
<p>That’s why, in an environment like this, it makes more sense  to look at the big indexes with a skeptical trading eye, as opposed to a  hopeful investing eye. I forget who said it first &#8212; maybe Jesse Livermore? &#8212;  but it’s quite true that “hope is not a strategy.”</p>
<p><strong>Why Ask Why</strong></p>
<p>Remember that awful beer slogan, “Why ask why, try Bud Dry?”  (To be honest, I wish that I didn’t.)</p>
<p>That’s the phrase that comes to mind here. Those who want to  be cheery “just because” are shrugging their shoulders and saying “Why ask why?”  To which the answer is, “Because it’s better to work with logic than emotion,  genius.”</p>
<p>There’s nothing wrong with pessimism or optimism per se.  It’s just more helpful when opinion is attached to fact… when there is a  logical analysis of some kind.</p>
<p>Take this newfound hope that the worst is over, for example.  Does it really make sense to think that there’s nothing more to come? That  consumers had to go through just a wee little bit of belt-tightening, and now,  even as food and gas prices are going through the roof and mortgage resets are  coming through in waves, everything will soon be okay again?</p>
<p>Does it really make sense to think &#8212; or to hope, rather &#8212;  that the worst of the financial news is baked in the cake, even as the smaller  regional banks around the country are preparing to hit us with a fresh stream  of write-downs and failures?</p>
<p>And most of all, is it really sane to pretend that the  “Austrian End Game” &#8212; this cycle of boom and bust we have been working through  for years and years and years &#8212; is just going to clear itself up now, and step  quietly aside with no finale or fanfare?</p>
<p>It’s all well and good to be flexible, to go long or short for  a quick trade. But it’s important to always have reason and logic behind one’s  actions.</p>
<p>Smart traders adhere to this general rule of thumb &#8212; even  the purely technical ones. If you’re going long because of a short-term  breakout, fine. That’s your reason for being long. But without firmer  grounding, that isn’t reason to stay long if the breakout fails. It isn’t  reason to suddenly start feeling all shiny and happy about a situation without  logic behind your change in sentiment.</p>
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