At All About Trends, the action in leading stocks — stocks that have delivered solid returns during this rally — is what we use to gauge the health of the market. That’s because in order for the market to continue to advance, the leaders must lead the market higher. And lately, those stocks have struggled — just look at AMZN, SNDA, NFLX, BWLD, JOSB.

That said, it’s not surprising to us to see what’s happening in the NASDAQ. And since the NASDAQ often leads the market, we expect to see topping patterns in the Dow and S&P very soon.

As you can see above, the NASDAQ has formed a Change In Trend pattern — from up to down.

Typically, there are three short sell set-ups that provide the best opportunity for low-risk gains. They are:

• Double Tops
• 1st Thrust Down
• Pullback Off Low’s

The above chart of the NASDAQ sports all three. The first clue that a change in trend is near is the formation of a double top (the red lines). Then, we have the first thrust down, which you can see from the second top down to the start of the pink line — the stocks that have led the NASDAQ higher are also now showing a first thrust down which explains the selling in AMZN, SNDA, NFLX, BWLD, JOSB.

And finally, you have a Pullback Off Lows pattern (the pink line). When a stock or an index completes its First Thrust Down, it will eventually find support and attempt to rally. This rally attempt is called the Pullback Off Lows pattern.

All of these set-ups are tradable on the short side.

Let’s start with SNDA first.  SNDA formed a solid Double Top pattern. This is what it looked like before it triggered a short-sell trade:

When it broke its pink uptrend line, it began its First Thrust Down.

JOSB is another example of a stock that is in the First Thrust Down phase.

As you can see, JOSB formed a double top as shown by the red line. The blue box is the first thrust down which is often a steep, quick sell-off — in this case JOSB has lost 14% in just two days.

These First Thrust Down moves start when a stock tops and then breaks its upward trendline. The place to take the trade is at the trend line break.

Finally, after a stock completes its First Thrust Down, it will eventually attempt to rally back. When they do that, they will form the third short-sell pattern we look for called the Pullback Off Lows pattern. LOPE (NASDAQ:LOPE) formed this pattern back in March and here’s what it looked like as it triggered:

This pattern is the exact opposite of the Pullback Off Highs pattern we’ve discussed in the recent past. It’s also usually the start of many trades we can do on the same stock. As you can see here, when a stock reverses course and starts making lower highs and lower lows, each rally attempt is a new short-sell opportunity.

Sincerely,
David Grandey

Source: Three Ways to Short Stocks

If you want to invest in video games there are, essentially, four ways to do it…

• Investing in video game publishers.
• Investing in video game retailers.
• Investing in companies that make video game consoles.
• Investing in companies that make video game accessories.

Game Publishers

These are the companies that make the games. And Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:ERTS) and Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) are the best bets right now.

Electronic Arts is the publisher of the popular Madden franchise, which gives it a consistent intake every year. Adding to its arsenal with a game like Spore will no doubt boost its bottom line even further.

Activision Blizzard is another strong contender. Guitar Hero has proven extremely popular, as has World of Warcraft. And while the new Call of Duty probably won’t sell as well as its hugely successful predecessor, Call of Duty 4, it will no doubt turn a respectable profit.

Avoid THQ Inc. (NASDAQ:THQI), which seems to have forgotten what games are and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO), which is overly reliant on its controversial Grand Theft Auto series. Take-Two also had a good opportunity to be taken over by the much larger Elecrtonic Arts, but a deal never got done, which raises questions about the company’s management.

Accessories

As the unrivaled success of the Wii showed, innovation in video game accessories can pay off. For every console, as well as the PC, there are multiple games that can be enhanced by the use of a new input medium.

Games such as Guitar Hero, a game where you use a guitar shaped controller to play along with music, Flight Simulator X – the premiere flight simulator game is greatly enhanced by the use of a joystick, and the Dance Dance Revolution series, which features games that are best played with a dance pad, are always emerging on the market.

While, most of the accessories are made by the company of the game that requires them, there are external controllers that are always there competing for the market. Some companies that make these include MadCatz Interactive Inc. (AMEX:MCZ), a peripheral company specializing in mainly console accessories and Logitech International (NASDAQ:LOGI) a Swiss company that specializes in mostly in PC peripherals.

Retailers

While many electronics stores and retailers sell video games, there are some specifically designed to do so. The biggest of these in the world is GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME). GameStop stocks new, used and old games, as well as multiple accessories and consoles. The largest video game retailer in Europe is GAME Group PLC (London:GMG). They operate similarly to GameStop.

Consoles

More than $9 billion was spent on video game consoles last year. Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony all have new systems on the market, and they’ve all proved formidable.

[...] All of these companies are reasonably solid investments, but, in terms of gaming, Sony Corp. (NYSE:SNE) and Nintendo Co. (Pink Sheets:NTDOY) look like they are going to have some very good years.

Sony has got an amazing games division that is producing very high quality games for its console.  And Nintendo is always going to be in demand, though it needs to start making more games for the Wii and DS.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), on the other hand, needs to acquire more exclusives, plus this report has nothing to do with the upcoming Windows 7, which is the biggest part of Microsoft’s business.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (OTC: FXCNF) is a technology company based in Taiwan. It manufactures the Mac mini, the iPhone and the iPod for Apple Inc. (AAPL), cell phones for Nokia Corp. (NOK), and motherboards for Intel Corp. (INTC).

Of course, it also manufactures PS2, PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii – the four most popular gaming consoles – making it a tremendous play on the video game industry.

Emerging Markets: The Future of the Gaming Industry

The Middle East, China, India, Africa, and South America all have extreme pirating problems where video games are concerned. Thus, most companies have trouble expanding into these markets.

The Chinese market is a rapidly growing area for video games. However, the video games that the Chinese are enjoying are not what the West is enjoying. Chinese consumers love MMORPGs. While an average Western MMORPG, like Everquest for example, will reach 500,000 users. An AVERAGE Chinese MMORPG will attract well over 1,000,000 users very quickly.

Of World of Warcraft’s 10 million subscribers, 1.5 million live in China. Analysts estimate that the WoW Chinese market, alone, could eventually have 10 million users.

Most Chinese play MMORPGs in internet cafés (since most of them have limited Internet access). A large percentage of Chinese, however, do play free MMORPG’s. Free MMORPGs usually are completely free to play, but players can pay money to expand the gaming experience (bigger map to play on, more areas etc.) or improve their character (items, weapons character stats, etc.). While this doesn’t seem to like it would make a lot of money, it actually does, thanks to the addictive nature of most MMORPGs.

Some of the bigger names in the Chinese MMORPG market are Giant Interactive Group Inc. (NYSE:GA), Perfect World Co. Ltd. (Nasdaq:PWRD), Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. (Nasdaq:SNDA), and The9 Ltd. (Nasdaq:NCTY).

Unfortunately, China is China. As such, the government always thinks of something ‘imaginative’ to do with the gaming market. The ‘Fatigue System’ is a means by which the government gets to control how long its citizens spend online playing games.

This system requests that games stop rewarding players after three hours of play in one day. Additionally, the system also requests an ID for players so as to be able to control their play more easily. While the system was originally meant for all gamers, it has been limited to gamers under the age of 18, due to the initial outcry it garnered.

China is also notorious for having the largest game sweatshop industry in the world. A game sweatshop is where a person is paid to play a game intensively and to make an extremely good character in it. That character is then sold to whomever wants it.

Chinese censorship is surprisingly low as the government only censors games that are anti-Chinese or portray Tibet and Taiwan as independent nations.

India’s market has yet to fully realize the potential of video games (putting the pirating aside). India is regularly compared to China in 2001. The online video games market is picking up but the overall market is still small. The few Indians who do game, do so like the Chinese: in Internet cafés. Unfortunately, there aren’t any enormous MMORPG makers (or equivalents) in India, yet.

The Middle East is generally also a pirating heaven though there are some legitimate shops usually selling games that haven’t been translated. Countries like Saudi Arabia also tend to ban certain games that are conceived as anti-Muslim.

If you wanted to invest in one of the Chinese MMORPG makers, the one that looks the best thanks to its pricing model and quality of games is Giant Interactive.

PS. This is an excerpt from a three-part guide to investing in the video game industry. For the complete version, please go to Money Morning’s archive pages.

Source: The Investor’s Guide to The Video Game Industry – Page 2