Fast-growing industry and a reliance on coal-fired power plants turned China into the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas a few years ago. Clouds of smog far thicker than that of Los Angeles hang over many of its cities and much of the water is densely polluted. But that’s something the central government aims to change.

China plans to reduce energy consumption per unit of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 20% of 2005 levels by the end of next year. It’s more immediate goal is to reduce reliance on coal-fired plants to 60% of its energy production from 70%, and replace with renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

Since 2007, about 54 gigawatts – about 7% of the nation’s electricity-generating capacity – of coal and oil-fired power plants have been closed down as part of the effort to reduce carbon emissions.

Alternative energy sources, including wind, solar, and hydropower, are in line to replace fossil fuels. China’s market for green technology could reach $1 trillion annually, or about 15% of the country’s forecast 2013 GDP, according to a report released last week by the China Greentech Initiative and the American Chamber of Commerce.

“Climate change brings a range of new risks and challenges for business, but it is also creating huge opportunities, particularly in the greentech sectors,” Richard Gledhill, global leader on climate change and carbon market services for consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers, told the People’s Daily. “The International Energy Agency predicts that we will have to spend an additional $9 trillion over the next 20 years to deliver a stabilization scenario of two degrees Celsius.”

Already solar companies in China are benefiting from the government’s push for clean technology.  China plans to install more than 500 megawatts of solar pilot projects in two to three years.

“Given the nascent nature of China’s solar domestic market, this 500 mW program, though not huge, sends a strong signal that China is serious about developing its domestic solar market, and will undoubtedly stimulate more activity in domestic deployment by enterprises outside of the subsidy program,” Julian Wong, a senior policy analyst with the Center for American Progress, told the People’s Daily.

The central government could raise its 2020 solar power generation target more than fivefold to at least 10 gigawatts, the paper reported. Analysts expect that more than two gigawatts of new solar capacity will be installed by 2011, up from about 100 megawatts in 2008.

To help the country meet its goal, the central government in July said it would subsidize 50% of investment for solar projects as well as transmission and distribution systems that connect to grid networks. The subsidy rises to 70% for independent photovoltaic power generating systems in remote regions of the country that have no power supply.

However, Chinese solar companies aren’t just benefiting from the growing market of the mainland. Many are now building factories in the United States to bypass protectionist legislation. They’re also encouraging executives to join industry trade groups to squelch any anti-Chinese sentiment.

One such company is Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE ADR: STP), which earlier this year said it plans to build a factory in the Southwest United States. The company said it is exploring opportunities in several states as it seeks to expand its presence in the U.S. solar market.

“It’ll be to facilitate sales — ‘buy American’ and things like that,” Steven Chan, Suntech’s head of global sales and marketing told The New York Times.

However, Suntech Chief Executive Officer Shi Zhengrong told The Times in an interview that 90% of the workers at the $30 million factory will be blue-collar laborers welding together panels from solar wafers made in China. And because of the generous subsidies it receives from Beijing, Suntech can sell solar panels on the U.S. market for less than the cost of the materials, assembly and shipping.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. (NYSE ADR: YGE), another large Chinese manufacturer, announced last week that it also had a “preliminary plan” to build solar panels in the United States, The Times reported.

Suntech is on track to pass Germany’s Q-Cells SE as the world’s No. 2 supplier of photovoltaic cells. After losing $69 million before interest and tax in the first half of the year, Q-Cells said it would cut 500 jobs – nearly a fifth of its workforce. Two other German solar companies – Conergy and Solarworld – also reported steep losses and are fighting for survival.

“A large part of the German solar cell and solar module manufacturers will not survive,” UBS AG analyst Patrick Hummel told the Financial Times Germany newspaper.

Both Conergy and Solarworld have accused Chinese manufacturers of dumping and called on Western governments to protect the solar industry with import tariffs on Chinese products. But so far there has been no action on the part of U.S. and European governments.

“It’s absolutely disgraceful that [U.S. President Barack] Obama is going around the world saying we will not resort to protectionist measures against China when they’re stealing the solar-panel business out from under us,” Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland and former chief economist of the U.S. International Trade Commission, told The San Diego Union-Tribune.

Morici noted that China’s protectionist measures include a requirement that 75% of the content of government-purchased solar panels be Chinese-made. The United States has no such requirement.

In response to critics, Suntech’s Shi insists that his firm is helping the solar industry by making the technology more affordable.

“Western countries worry about the dramatic price reduction and talk about dumping. That shows a protectionist attitude. That’s wrong,” Shi told the United Kingdom’s Guardian. “We must work together to promote and utilise each other’s strengths.”

China recently  took a big step toward enhancing cooperation with Western solar companies by signing a deal with the Phoenix-based First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) to build the world’s largest solar plant.

The 2,000 megawatt complex will be built in Ordos City in Inner Mongolia by 2019. At that size, it would be about 30 times larger than any existing solar power stations in Europe.

“There are a few existing solar projects of about 50 to 60 megawatts, but this would be the biggest by a country mile,” Charles Yonts, an analyst specializing in alternative energy at CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg. “China is suggesting the solar market will be up to 20,000 megawatts by 2020, but the scale of this project suggests these estimates are far too conservative.”

First Solar will consider solar module and manufacturing sites in Ordos City as part of the agreement.

The deal raised the eyebrows of many industry leaders who were skeptical about China’s willingness to work with Western companies.

“If you announce that we have such a huge need for solar panels that we are even going to put First Solar panels into China, all of a sudden we’ve gone from this massive threat to maybe we saw it the wrong way around,” Stephan Dolezalek, managing director of Silicon Valley-based venture capital firm VantagePoint Venture Partners, told Reuters.

“Maybe we should see the size of the Chinese market as this enormous upside potential, and maybe all of solar should be seeing it much more positively.”

BrightSource Energy Chief Executive Officer John Woolward said his company is moving “slowly and deliberately” to find a partner in China, while Tom Werner, chief executive of the California-based SunPower Corp. (Nasdaq: SPWRA) said the deal “clearly makes use more bullish on China.”

“We hope that that will result in us being able to penetrate that market as well,” he added.

Source: Solar Energy’s Future Shines Brightest in China

The thought that jumps to mind is that solar power isn’t going to be “alternative energy” for much longer.

In spite of the current economic malaise and market downturn we’re navigating through, solar energy is one of the few bright spots (pun intended) in the alternative energy space.

The reason?

• Continued advances in solar panel technology are resulting in cheaper, more efficient panels.
• Government subsidies at both the state and federal levels are making the installation of residential solar more compelling than ever.

Here’s why solar is looking brighter by the day, and a major retailer that could change everything.

The Solar Energy Industry’s Solar Cell Production

For the past few years, the solar power industry has been capacity constrained by the lack of polysilicon, the basic foundation on which chemicals are deposited to produce the solar cells used in panels.

But as in other areas of the semiconductor industry, technology marches on. The newest panels are based on thin-film technology, and don’t require polysilicon. No fewer than 143 companies are involved in some aspect of thin-film panel technology.

Thin-film is fast becoming the new standard in panel technology, and in a few years will render polysilicon panels obsolete. Right now, thin-film panels are averaging about $1.40 per watt, but that number will be halved in a year or two.

That alone will make thin-film panels competitive with their polysilicon predecessors, but panel efficiencies – currently around 9% – are rising, and will likely reach 18-20% in the next few years.

Combined, decreasing costs and increasing efficiencies will soon make solar panels the cheapest power source on the planet.

Like everything else, economics will ultimately drive the solar panel industry, just like it has in the computer industry. And one of the greatest modern companies to exploit economics of scale is getting into the act.

Wal-Mart’s Solar Energy Experiment

Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) is already evaluating the feasibility of installing solar energy panels on the roofs of its stores. Consider it “dipping a toe” in the water to check its temperature.

• If an experiment involving a few stores pans out, Walmart could decide to roll out panels to all of its stores. That’s about 35 square miles of surface area.
• Using a very conservative figure of around 3 watts per square foot, Walmart could realistically expect to produce in the neighborhood of 3 Gigawatts of power.
• That would make the low-cost retailer one of the largest power producers in the country.

Now replicate that scenario on every warehouse, and big box store in the country, and you begin to get the idea that solar energy could reasonably provide a significant percentage of the power we use, especially during peak usage times.

Storage when the sun isn’t shining is certainly an issue, but scientists and engineers are already designing load-shifting storage systems that will provide power during times of darkness or on cloudy days.

The entire sector recently got a boost when SunPower Corporation (Nasdaq: SPRWA) announced earnings and blew away analysts estimates.

If Wal-Mart does forcefully enter the solar space, we’re going to see it use its tremendous pricing power to lower the cost of solar energy and gain mass production. The kinds of things only a company of that size and negotiating power can do.

And when that happens, consumers everywhere will be jumping aboard.

Investors who want exposure to the sector should view market pullbacks as opportunities to establish small positions in their favorite solar stocks.

Good investing,

Dave Fessler

Source: A Bright Spot in the Alternative Energy Sector

But until that happens, the ride could be bumpy. Thankfully, we have a tree-hugging President that will do anything in his power to make sure that alternative energies – like solar – remain in the forefront of US energy production.

I’m not making this stuff up. This is common knowledge– you can already see the stock of one solar producer Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE:STP) behaving exactly how you would expect…

The first thing you’ll notice is exactly how far STP has fallen since August of last year. This isn’t unique to this company – virtually every stock in the market shows this fall. More interesting, is the potential bottom forming.

You can tell something good is brewing because…

1.    The RSI is showing a strengthening trend over the past three months. The bottoms are higher.

2.    A bullish cross of the 20 and 50-day moving averages. Even though the stock’s price is lower, the bullish cross remains.

3.    The Slow Stochastic is Oversold. This signals that conditions are ripe for buyers to flood the market and take STP much higher. At this point, a 50% spike isn’t out of the question. And the possibility for a double is very real.

It appears that the chart of this solar company is showing really great signs of a potential bottom. Considering the billions Obama will flow into this sector over the upcoming ten years, we might be seeing the cheapest price we’ll ever see for this company.

Positioning yourself today for the long-term could enrich you immensely in the years ahead.

The pullback by Silicon Valley’s venture-capital elite is part of a complete overhaul of its investment criteria. The big surprise is that green investments are on the hit list along with other high-tech innovations — a reversal of the save-the-planet culture that has emerged in this Mecca of libertarian funding.

An article in today’s New York Times revealed that Silicon Valley VCs are now turning to shorter term opportunities versus the long-term returns that exemplify a healthy investment climate.

Alternative energy will get more critical assessment along with the Web 2.0 hype (think social networking), cell-phone advertising, massive enterprise software development and other long-term, big-ticket products.

Silicon Valley’s turn-around on green infrastructure comes at a time when the incoming Obama administration is pushing alternative energy as a means to create a new industry and reduce reliance on foreign oil.

Investors with an interest in alternative energy now have to pick sides. Our take on green energy is that it will eventually provide a profit, but the near-term prospects have always been questionable. In short, we always advised not to believe the media hype. Now it seems that the brains in Silicon Valley are in agreement.

Having personally worked in Silicon Valley for 15 years as a marketing professional, I know first hand that there’s probably no other investment community on the planet more attracted to hype. They create it, consume it and live and die by it.

Now, as Big Media jumps on Obama’s renewable energy bandwagon, Silicon Valley decides it’s time to get off. Why the change of heart? It has to do with two clashing trends.

For one thing, total investment in renewable energy in 2007 was $3.43 billion, up 50% over 2006, according to the Venture Power Report. Solar led with an immense $1.05 billion total.

At the same time, Silicon Valley produced just one IPO in 2008, the lowest number in more than two decades and down from an average of 28 IPOs a year since 1985.

The head-on collision of record-high alternative-energy investments and a single, crummy IPO means that Silicon Valley is not expecting to see a return on their green dollars any time soon.

The San Jose Mercury News, the bible of Silicon Valley, reported on Dec. 26, 2008, “The ugliest recession in decades is expected to keep the national IPO market frozen through at least the first half of 2009 and maybe longer, according to several venture capitalists and analysts.”

So despite President-elect Obama’s promise to spend $150 billion over the next decade to promote renewable energy, Silicon Valley is saying “Show me the money.”

Richard Nixon tried energy independence and failed. Jimmy Carter promoted synthetic fuels and failed. Bush promoted biofuels and failed.

Now President-elect Obama thinks he can succeed where his predecessors have stumbled badly. Maybe he will make it work. But it’s very possible that the libertarian culture in Silicon Valley has sobered up, realizing that the government really doesn’t have a great track record of picking winners for investors.

As always, if you’re into alternative energy for the long haul have yourself a ball. If you want to keep the lights on, put your money elsewhere.

This from Penny Sleuth:

We don’t play politics at Penny Sleuth. Frankly, we can’t agree on politics. But that doesn’t mean smart investors should ignore what Washington’s doing. Some of the largest profits in history spawned from legislation and court rulings.

Take solar energy for example. After the introduction of the Solar Energy Research and advancement Act of 2007, investors watched as solar companies’ share prices exploded.

One of the biggest winners was First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR). The bill was brought before the House of Representatives on June 19, 2007. Over the next 12 months, First Solar’s shares jumped 300%.

Another was SunPower Corp (NASDAQ:SPWRA). SunPower’s shares blew up 151% in just six months.

Both of these gains can be directly contributed to a small bill being read in the House. This can happen on any particular day with any particular piece of legislation. We never know which bill or act will cause such run ups. But after November 4, we have a pretty good idea.

Obama Profit Opportunity No. 1:
Science’s Most Important Breakthrough in Centuries

While on the campaign trail, Barack Obama called for the ban on stem cells to be peeled back. He said that we have a duty to advance science in any way we can to cure the sick and improve the health of the world.

This should send all stem cell stocks through the roof. But if investors can pinpoint the right biotech/R&D firm, they’ll see the largest of these gains. Potentially collecting triple or even quadruple digit profits.

Fractured Spinal Cord? No Problem

Neuralstem Inc (AMEX:CUR) is an industry leader in Human Neural Stem Cell technology. Simply put, Neuralstem is working on cures for central nervous system diseases. The company currently has four issued patents and 12 more pending. Each of these are crucial to the industry. It limits competition, while providing a lucrative asset for future growth.

These patents cover a specific regenerative process where neural stem cells are administered to the area where a spinal cord fracture occurred. These stem cells grow and heal the fracture, which restores motor functions to the parts of the body where it’s been cut off.

For instance, if someone falls and fractures their spinal cord, there’s a good chance that person will lose control over the lower half of his or her body. In the past, that person would never be able to walk again. With Neuralstem’s technology, a simple injection can restore the person’s control.

Currently, the market values Neuralstem at just $51 million. Shares can be bought for around $1.60. That’s obviously too cheap. It’ll only take one bill, announcement, or speech to send shares flying. It appears that the stem cell ban will be lifted in the first 100 days of the Obama Presidency, so Neuralstem could see a huge boost in early 2009.

Obama Profit Opportunity No. 2:
Fixing Renewable Energy’s Fatal Flaw

There is only a certain amount of time during the day when windmills can produce energy. The average capacity factor for wind power is about 30%. The rest of the time, these windmills sit like giant statues, waiting for the next gust of wind. During that period — the “energy time gap” — no new electricity is going onto the power grids.

The same goes for solar power. The sun doesn’t shine 100% of the time. Even in the vast deserts of the U.S. Southwest in the peak of summer, the sun is up only about 14 hours per day. When it is up, there are problems with cloud coverage. The average capacity factor for solar power is around 25%.

Round-the-Clock Energy Storage

ZBB Energy Corp (AMEX:ZBB) designs and manufactures a special type of fuel cell storage device called Zinc Energy Storage Systems (ZESS). ZBB’s systems are used worldwide in the renewable energy fields. For instance, wind and solar farms use ZESS to store extra energy during peak hours. Then, in off-peak periods (no wind or at night), the ZESS can transmit its stored power to the grid. This system allows for continuous electricity 24 hours a day.

Here’s the best part… It only takes three to four hours to charge a ZESS. That’s plenty of time to store the solar or wind power during peak time. The company sells its systems to wind and solar farms, utilities, and commercial/industrial sites.

Banking on the First 100 Days

Within the first 100 days of Obama’s Administration, the demand will likely multiply. Obama plans to invest $150 billion to help create five million jobs in clean energy over then next 10 years. You can bet that a good portion of that money will be sent to wind and solar farms. Those farms will need to increase efficiency and storage. That’s when they’ll call ZBB.

On top of the spending, Obama has already declared he’ll push for new, strict mandates on energy and efficiency. For instance, he’s calling for 10% of our electricity to come from renewables by 2012 and 25% by 2025.

Obama Profit Opportunity No. 3:
It’s Upgrade Time

Many investors run from the defense industry when they hear a Democrat coming. We think you should jump right in. You see, the largest defense contracts in our nation’s history have come under Democrats. In fact, almost every period of the military buildup has come from a left-of-center White House…with the exception of Ronald Reagan.

As we enter our sixth year of the Iraq War and our eighth year of the one in Afghanistan, our weapons, vehicles, and equipment are desperately overdue for repairs and upgrades.

Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, you still provide our troops with the best equipment available. It certainly wouldn’t look good for Obama to enter the oval office on day one and cut equipment upgrades to the troops in war zones.

We think he’s going to take the opportunity to “reach across the aisle” and upgrade our military’s technologies and defenses. He’ll want to do that early if he plans to get any of his agenda passed.

Niche Player in a Mega Industry

That’s why we recommend you check out Herley Industries (NASDAQ:HRLY). Herley is a leader in RF microwave and millimeter wave components. These components are crucial to flight instrumentation, weapons sensors, guidance systems, and radars.

The company currently has a backlog of $157 million, with a market cap of just $139 million. Herley’s list of customers include Northrop Grumman, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and the U.S. government.

While you might not have heard of it, Herley has been around since 1965. It’s been designing microwave devices for the defense industry for over 40 years. The company’s technology has been implemented in such projects as the F-16 Falcon, E-2C/D Hawkeye, and the AMRAAM air to air missile.

This kind of background puts it in the front spot for any future defense upgrades. On top of that, it’s stock is extremely cheap. It’s trading at just 0.72 price-to-book, and 0.63 price-to-sales.

Defense is likely a top priority for the incoming Obama Administration. The time is right to jump in on a niche defense company like Herley.

Source: The Three Best Plays for Obama’s First 100 Days

This from Today’s Financial News:

He is either going to be a hero or an absolute zero. For nearly three years now, Tom Djokovich, the CEO of XsunX (OTC:XSNX), has been promising investors that his fledgling solar panel manufacturer was on the cusp of a major sale.

When I talked with the executive early in the winter of 2005, he kept the company’s official word that it would have its first sale by that spring. Investors flocked to the company, speculating big gains were on the way.

The alternative energy boom was just starting to gain traction and investors believed XsunX was going to be a huge winner. Shares soared from less than $0.25 to almost $3.00 from June of 2005 to April of the following year.

The orders never came.

Share price has been dropping ever since. In fact, investors recently had to endure the pain of 52-week lows below $0.18. The action has not been pretty.

Solar manufacturer or P.R firm?

The decline in valuation is certainly not for a lack of trying on behalf of the company’s public relations team. For the past two years, every new hire, new supplier contract, new investment and even the company’s attendance at industry conferences has been pumped through the media engine.

The shoddy releases were from a desperate company making desperate moves. Investors eventually grew tired of the failed promises and lack of any real information. The more press releases XsunX issued, the further its price dropped.

It is no wonder investors are desperate for answers after yesterday’s announcement. XsunX actually announced a major order. It has entered a two-year contract with a solar power company working on projects in California and Hawaii.

According to XsunX, in exchange for $37 million, the company will supply 15 megawatts worth of its solar modules. A third of the order will be filled in 2009, with the remaining 10 megawatts supplied in 2010.

That is about all the company has said on what should be a monumental subject. It has not mentioned how it will produce the modules or where it will find the cash flow to being operations. After all, its newly leased 90,000-square foot production facility, which is undergoing major renovations, appears nowhere close to being complete. The last I heard, production was not supposed to begin until April of 2009.

Not buyin’ it

It was no surprise to see shares of XsunX jump on yesterday’s news, from $0.19 to $0.25. After all, this company has a long history of getting positive attention just when investors believe the end is near. But if investors truly believed in the company, its management and its products, shares would have climbed even higher.

With almost nothing left in cash, an array of expenses and no hope of finding ample credit in this market, I remain leery of this company’s future success.

Yesterday’s news, if it turns out to be the real deal, could be the company’s saving grace, but we have been here before.

If you are looking for an ultra-speculative play, this is it. As for me, however, I am waiting to see what comes next. If the company can make it through next spring, I will be investigating the situation again. For now, it looks like yet another costly trap.

Source: Solar industry investing: Is XsunX (XSNX) the real deal?

The putrid haze of Beijing that has engulfed China and greater Asia is reducing the amount of sunlight that actually reaches the ground, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program.

In addition to being responsible for millions of deaths and blighted crop yields, these so-called Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) have dimmed China’s skies to the extent that the country’s solar initiative, and its huge solar industry, could become DOA.

As it stands now, Chinese solar stocks are on life support — depleting the portfolios of investors who got in at the top of the China IPO solar bubble of 2006-2007.

The losses have been staggering…

Solarfun Power Holdings Co. (Nasdaq:SOLF) has a 52-week range of $4.20 – $40.19 – a drop of 89.5%

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE:TSL) fell from 56.50 to 8.51 over the past 52 weeks – for a loss of 84.9%.

Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE:STP) saw it’s 52-week price plunge to $9.53 from $90.00 – a loss of 89.4%

And JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq:JASO) fell from $27.00 to 2.01 over the past 52 weeks – a loss of 92.5%.

In a conference call to analysts on Nov. 12th, JA Solar CEO Samuel Yang said “At this moment the market reaction has been panic.”

Now it appears that China’s home market for solar products is facing a very dim future as well from decades of pollution.

ABCs reflect solar radiation back to space by absorbing heat in the atmosphere.

In China, ABCs can cut sunlight on the Earth’s surface in two ways. Fossil-fuel particles such as sulphates reflect and scatter rays back into space, while black carbon in soot, absorbs sunlight before it reaches the ground.

According to the report, smog blocks 10-25% of the sunlight that should be reaching terra firma in China.

This isn’t just a thin layer of pollution blocking out the sun. In some places, it can be a mile thick. It can stretch from the Arabian Peninsula to the Yellow Sea, sometimes drifting as far east as California.

The U.N report says “In China the observed dimming trend from the 1950s to the 1990s was about 3-4 per cent per decade, with the larger trends after the 1970s.”

What does this mean for investors?

Those of you who tend to be bottom feeders should stay away from China solar stocks at any price. As we all know, when it comes to stock markets nothing is permanent. But zero is the share price we could be looking at for some these fallen IPO stars.

In one story, the Journal covers a recently released annual report from the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, the IAE paints a gloomy picture of energy shortages and escalating costs of discovery and recovery.

The IAE says that current low oil prices are an anomaly linked to the economic crisis embracing the world. Eventually, when the economy regains its health, oil prices will continue to climb over the coming years to hit $200 a barrel by 2030.

One problem with energy prices remains a dilapidated infrastructure. In turn, energy companies would have to invest more than $26 trillion by 2030, with over half of that going to increased power generation and distribution. Most of the rest of the investment will go to exploring and developing new sources of oil, the Journal writes.

Underinvestment by the oil industry could be just as responsible as increased global consumption for future price increases. Energy companies will have to spend $350 billion a year on new oil and gas projects through 2030. By comparison, the industry spent a total of $390 billion from 2000 to 2007, said the Journal.

There are two obstacles faced by oil companies when it comes to making these massive investments.

The first is the state of the current economy and shrinking energy consumption. The second is that many oil fields are past their prime, as Peak Oil proponents have been saying for decades. To extract more oil presents a questionable economic argument for new investment.

The IEA asserts, however, that renewable energy sources will grow by over 7% a year – reaching 4% of the world total by 2030, up from 1% in 2006.

That said, the IEA also said the U.S., Europe and Japan will likely never use more oil than they did last year. All projected increases in oil demand will come from the developing world, mainly China, India and the Middle East.

So if in fact the U.S. oil consumption has peaked, does it make sense for our new democratic regime to sink $150 billion over the next decade into creating new jobs for the green sector?

That’s the question asked in the second article in today’s Journal.

This piece challenges the wisdom of creating government-subsidized green jobs, at a time when the jury is still out about the economics of green energy.

President-elect Obama maintains that spending $150 billion over the next decade to boost energy efficiency would help create five million jobs, according to the Journal.

But the article goes on to say that these numbers are under assault by another contingent in the Obama camp.

As the Journal writes, several studies estimate that $1 invested in renewable energy or energy efficiency would yield up to four times as many jobs as $1 invested in oil and gas, whose basic infrastructure of wells, refineries and pipelines has been around for years. Moreover, those studies say, clean-energy jobs are likely to be centered in the U.S., unlike jobs in the oil and gas industry, which increasingly are spread around the world.

From our perspective, this argument is riddled with holes. Right now, China is the dominant supplier of solar-energy systems and plans on extending its lead. China is also making a push to develop state-of-the-art wind turbines.

While heavy hitters such as General Electric and T. Boone Pickens talk about their multi-billion investments in wind, there has been little competition to get these deals. Sooner rather than later, China will step in – and we know how that story ends.

The Journal also says that job creation in a burgeoning green sector could also lead to job losses in mature energy industries such as coal and oil.

Robert Pollin, a professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who co-wrote a study that questions the job target by the Obama campaign.

It said that $100 billion spent over two years could produce two million green jobs, according to the Journal. But his study didn’t count jobs that might be lost elsewhere in the economy if the country shifted to more expensive sources of green energy.

As we see it, more expensive energy leads to inflation, which also results in job losses. Businesses have to maintain a certain level of profitability, and if they’re paying more for clean energy it seems that heads will roll in the interest of net profits.

Once again, the numbers point to higher investments in fossil-fuel infrastructure versus clean energy. It’s not that we’re opposed to a cleaner environment, but new technologies in fossil-fuel discovery, reduced emissions and improved efficiency will continue to provide bigger returns in fossil fuels.

Perhaps the biggest green market, however, will not be an Obama-led green mandate, but emerging markets like China and India. In these places, green presents a true economic gain untethered from the price of oil, coal or natural gas.

That’s because the cost of pollution in these economies has a true impact on the GDP. Pollution raises the price of food, energy and health care. In the case of China, the pollution quotient adds enough overhead to make countries such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Thailand lower cost providers.

In India, the battle of a new Tata Motors plant for the company’s sub-micro thrifty car has forced a relocation that cost Tata millions.

Here in the U.S., though, a new era of subsidized green may lose its luster if fossil fuel prices stabilize at current levels – or even drop.

Green alternatives have always been pegged to the cost of doing business in a fossil-fuel economy. That’s why we saw so many solar IPOs soar with the ever-climbing price of oil. As oil prices retreated, so went the fortunes of so many solar investors.

This proves that self-righteousness is not a technical indicator or an incentive for long-term investments in the green sector. Self-righteousness is not the same as greed, which directly affects the climate for trading.

Now that the green movement has appropriated nuclear, we could see some distorted numbers creeping into the market as why alternative energy is more economically viable than two years ago.

But even the uranium industry doesn’t believe that, with the price of yellow cake down about half from a year ago.

For green stocks to truly perform, the American economy has to be resuscitated.

Over the long haul, green stocks will find themselves tied more to consumer spending than to government hand-outs. Once the economy is restored, and people start driving to the mall and vacation homes in the Outer Banks; once Americans stop conserving energy and turn up the heat in their homes to stay warm; and once alternative energy returns to a better economic alternative to fossil fuels — at that time we’ll see green stocks being to take off again.

Near term, green stocks could be a speculators playground as the Obama halo effect sends up prices. In the mean time, I’d still put my money in oil drillers.

This from Taipan Publishing’s emerging markets blog:

As climate change and energy independence have headlined a number of events during the past two years of presidential campaigning, I’m happy to see alternative energy back in the investment ring.

Surprisingly, many top-notch European companies see the U.S. as a major growth region for the renewable energy business, and they are coming over in droves to set up shop.

Let’s take a look at just one of the technologies that’s already being employed around the world: wind power.

The U.S. is in bad shape compared to the rest of the world. Some of the world’s leaders in wind power, like Spain, Denmark and Germany, generate a significant percentage of electricity from wind. But even countries like Morocco and India generate a larger percentage of electricity from wind than the U.S.

Morroco gets 1.7% of its electricty from wind. India? 4.6%.

The U.S. gets 1.37% from wind, and that’s after record growth last year that saw 3,100 new turbines built in 34 different states.

Now listen to this: The Department of Energy released a 248-page report that shows how the U.S. can generates as much as 20% of its electricity from wind power alone… by 2030. Do the math and you’ve got a 1,360% increase from currend wind generation.

That means an additional 7,000 turbines a year will need to be installed over the next nine years if we want to meet this goal.

Guess what? That type of demand won’t be met by U.S. companies. General Electric (NYSE:GE) is already committed for the next few years with T. Boone Pickens’ wind farm planned for Texas.

No, folks… This demand will have to be met by international companies… Companies that have climbed amazingly quickly over the past two and a half years. In fact, seven different international companies have more than doubled since 2005.

(Note: That doesn’t include the global meltdown the world’s experienced over the past couple months.)

And many of these companies already have operations here in the U.S. and are looking to expand, sometimes into old manufacturing plants.

Like Spanish company Acciona SA (MCE:ANA) who plopped a wind turbine manufacturing plant in an old pump factory in West Branch, Iowa…

These investments have sparkes a wealth of more factories, like the small company that occupies an old Maytag factory making concrete towers to support wind turbines while TPI Composites built a brand new plant across the street and promised to hire 500 employees.

It’s revitalizing old manufacturing towns in what’s called “The Rust Belt.” These are places who saw manufacturing plants uprooted and moved overseas, or just closed down completely.

It’s a very interesting area for investors.

No matter what you think of either candidate for president, both have promised to curb our dependence on foreign oil and build jobs here at home. Both have promised more alternative energy investments.

Seems like a win-win for both investors and many of those European companies coming to the U.S. and building turbine plants.

Source: Green Investing: The New Industrial Revolution