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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Stephen Gallagher</title>
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		<title>Better Than Expected Economic Reports Signal the Economy Could Be Ready for a Fed on Pause</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/better-than-expected-economic-reports-signal-the-economy-could-be-ready-for-a-fed-on-pause/1802</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/better-than-expected-economic-reports-signal-the-economy-could-be-ready-for-a-fed-on-pause/1802#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2008 13:10:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jennifer Yousfi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank Of Tokyo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commerce Department]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Department of Labor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mitsubishi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SCGLY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Gallagher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unemployment Rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weak Dollar]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The U.S. economy shed 20,000 in April, the Department of Labor announced in its monthly employment summary, bringing total unemployment up to 5% from 5.1% last month.</p>
<p>&#8220;We are in a recession, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#38;sid=aAASIBwrJW00&#38;refer=home" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#038;sid=aAASIBwrJW00&#038;refer=home_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">this  report doesn’t change that</a>,&#8221; Ellen Zentner, an economist at <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=716974" onclick="s_objectID="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=716974_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi  UFJ Ltd.</a> in New York, told <strong><em>Bloomberg News</em></strong>. Zentner had forecast a payrolls cut of 25,000. &#8220;What it does is support the idea that the downturn will be mild. Consumer spending isn’t going to tank.&#8221;</p>
<p>Compared to the 240,000 jobs the domestic labor market shed in the first three months of the year, 20,000 is a marked improvement. The continued slump in the housing market and waning consumer confidence affected sectors tied to the housing market and consumer&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The U.S. economy shed 20,000 in April, the Department of Labor announced in its monthly employment summary, bringing total unemployment up to 5% from 5.1% last month.<span id="more-1802"></span></p>
<p>&#8220;We are in a recession, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aAASIBwrJW00&amp;refer=home" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#038;sid=aAASIBwrJW00&#038;refer=home_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">this  report doesn’t change that</a>,&#8221; Ellen Zentner, an economist at <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=716974" onclick="s_objectID="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=716974_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi  UFJ Ltd.</a> in New York, told <strong><em>Bloomberg News</em></strong>. Zentner had forecast a payrolls cut of 25,000. &#8220;What it does is support the idea that the downturn will be mild. Consumer spending isn’t going to tank.&#8221;</p>
<p>Compared to the 240,000 jobs the domestic labor market shed in the first three months of the year, 20,000 is a marked improvement. The continued slump in the housing market and waning consumer confidence affected sectors tied to the housing market and consumer goods.</p>
<p>&#8220;Employment continued to decline in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade, while jobs were added in health care and in professional and technical services,&#8221; the DOL <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">statement read</a>.</p>
<p>The report was universally better than expected, as many economists had expected a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2%. Many saw the moderation in job losses as affirmation that the U.S. Federal Reserve should pause in its rate-cutting campaign.</p>
<p>&#8220;For now, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAE16E275%2D93A3%2D4D58%2D8CBE%2D79D7A8A8B15B%7D&amp;siteid=nwham&amp;lsn=5" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAE16E275%2D93A3%2D4D58%2D8CBE%2D79D7A8A8_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">this  employment trend is validating signals</a> sent by the [Federal Open Market Committee] earlier this week to take a pause in rate cuts,&#8221; wrote Stephen Gallagher, economist for Societe Generale SA (OTC: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3ASCGLY" onclick="s_objectID="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3ASCGLY_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">SCGLY</a>), <strong><em>MarketWatch</em></strong> reported. The report &#8220;lessens the fears of a deep, or prolonged downturn in the  economy.&#8221;</p>
<p>In an unrelated report, the Commerce Department announced that domestic factory orders increased 1.4% in March on the heels of a 0.9% decline in February due largely to strong international sales. The weak dollar is helping to boost exports and offset weakening demand at home.</p>
<p>&#8220;The <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=ao6Qe10vfIHI" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&#038;sid=ao6Qe10vfIHI_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">cross  currents of a weak domestic economy and a strong export sector</a> continue to  keep activity from faltering sharply,&#8221; Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit  Suisse Holdings Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACS" onclick="s_objectID="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACS_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true">CS</a>)  in New York, told <strong><em>Bloomberg</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Again, the report was better than anticipated, as  economists’ had expected an increase of only 0.2%.</p>
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		<title>Dollar Collapses to Record Low vs. Euro</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/dollar-collapses-to-record-low-vs-euro/1361</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/dollar-collapses-to-record-low-vs-euro/1361#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 18:37:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[US Dollar & Forex Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commerce Department]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Core Cpi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societe Generale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Gallagher]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p class="maintextDRP"> In the currency market, the dollar slumped to new lows against the euro. Late Wednesday, the euro was trading at $1.595 vs. $1.5791 on Tuesday. </p>
<p class="maintextDRP">
</p><p>The euro is now poised to test $1.60, a technically and psychologically critical level.</p>
<p>A slew of numbers was released yesterday. The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index rose 0.3% in March, in line with economists’ expectations. The closely-examined core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.2%, also matching estimates.</p>
<p>That inflation wasn’t higher is significant, says Stephen Gallagher, economist for Societe Generale. “Concerns of rising inflation remain high, but recent core gains remain moderate,” Gallagher said. “The evidence of significant pass-through from food and energy prices is still low. If inflation expectations&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="maintextDRP"> In the currency market, the dollar slumped to new lows against the euro. Late Wednesday, the euro was trading at $1.595 vs. $1.5791 on Tuesday. <span id="more-1361"></span></p>
<p class="maintextDRP">
<p>The euro is now poised to test $1.60, a technically and psychologically critical level.</p>
<p>A slew of numbers was released yesterday. The Labor Department reported that the consumer price index rose 0.3% in March, in line with economists’ expectations. The closely-examined core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.2%, also matching estimates.</p>
<p>That inflation wasn’t higher is significant, says Stephen Gallagher, economist for Societe Generale. “Concerns of rising inflation remain high, but recent core gains remain moderate,” Gallagher said. “The evidence of significant pass-through from food and energy prices is still low. If inflation expectations are kept under control by such evidence, then the Fed has a freer hand to cut rates.”</p>
<p>Separately, the Commerce Department said housing starts plunged 11.9% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000, the lowest level in 17 years. Building permits also fell to a 17-year low.</p>
<p>In the one bright note, the Fed said output at the nation&#8217;s factories, mines and utilities rose by 0.3% in March, the fastest pace in four months. That was far better than economists’ expectations that production would fall by 0.1%.</p>
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