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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Steve Forbes</title>
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		<title>T2 Partners: You Don&#8217;t Stand a Chance in Today Market</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/t2-partners-you-dont-stand-a-chance-in-today-market/18961</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/t2-partners-you-dont-stand-a-chance-in-today-market/18961#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 13:55:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Notes From the Investment Underground]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian Investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[etf]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Index Funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation Rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mutual funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Forbes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasurys]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=18961</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Another of our favorite underground investors Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners is sounding the alarm on US Treasurys. He is also pessimistic about retail investors beating the market on their own.</p>
<p>This from a recent interview with Steve Forbes, which you can watch in full on Forbes.com</p>
<blockquote><p>But then even buying Treasuries, you have the risk of under-performing inflation at today&#8217;s rate that you&#8217;re getting on Treasuries, right? Certainly with today&#8217;s yield, relative to the stock market, I would think Treasuries would be a terrible investment. In fact, we&#8217;re short an ETF that owns 20-year Treasuries because we think rates are going up. My point, though, is you can do one of two things.</p>
<p>Generally speaking, to the extent that you can, you&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another of our favorite underground investors Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners is sounding the alarm on US Treasurys. He is also pessimistic about retail investors beating the market on their own.<span id="more-18961"></span></p>
<p>This from a recent interview with Steve Forbes, which you can watch in full on Forbes.com</p>
<blockquote><p>But then even buying Treasuries, you have the risk of under-performing inflation at today&#8217;s rate that you&#8217;re getting on Treasuries, right? Certainly with today&#8217;s yield, relative to the stock market, I would think Treasuries would be a terrible investment. In fact, we&#8217;re short an ETF that owns 20-year Treasuries because we think rates are going up. My point, though, is you can do one of two things.</p>
<p>Generally speaking, to the extent that you can, you can own bonds and stocks, and then within stocks you can pick stocks on your own or you can own a mutual fund or an index fund. I think that picking stocks and doing better than the market over time is very, very, very difficult. Most professionals can&#8217;t do it and most individual investors can&#8217;t do it. Human beings are hardwired to do precisely the wrong thing, which is buy things when they&#8217;re high and popular, and sell them when they&#8217;re low and unpopular. And of course to be a successful investor you have to do the complete opposite. I think most average people, who don&#8217;t have the time and the training to pick stocks, would be better off in mutual funds or index funds.</p></blockquote>
<p>Tilson is right that we are “hardwired” to buy high and sell low. That’s why here at <strong><em>Notes</em> </strong>we follow only contrarian investors – those that take advantage of the crowd’s uncanny ability to do the wrong thing when it comes to their money. As our commodities investing guru Rick Rule puts it, “You’re either a contrarian or a victim.” Amen to that…</p>
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		<title>Forbes’ 10 Biggest Losers: 4 Wealth Protection Lessons From Bankrupt Billionaires</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/forbes%e2%80%99-10-biggest-losers-4-wealth-protection-lessons-from-bankrupt-billionaires/15097</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/forbes%e2%80%99-10-biggest-losers-4-wealth-protection-lessons-from-bankrupt-billionaires/15097#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 16:01:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Louis Basenese</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Slim]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forbes Magazine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Louis Basenese]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Assets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Forbes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wealth Protection]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15097</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Last week, <em>Forbes</em> magazine released its annual list of billionaires. No surprise, the rolls shrank.</p>
<p>“[In 2007], there were 1,125 billionaires. This year, it’s down to 793,” says CEO Steve Forbes.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=101777043" target="_blank">NPR broadcast</a> tried to put an optimistic spin on the news suggesting, “All those empty spots… mean more room for the rest of us to move up.” In good fun, it even provided five secrets to do so, based upon the business activities that propelled 38 new billionaires into this year’s rankings.</p>
<p>But in all fairness, I don’t think a single one of us stands a chance of becoming a billionaire in the next year. So let’s put the <em>Forbes</em> list to better use than invoking a fanciful daydream about joining the lifestyles of&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week, <em>Forbes</em> magazine released its annual list of billionaires. No surprise, the rolls shrank.<span id="more-15097"></span></p>
<p>“[In 2007], there were 1,125 billionaires. This year, it’s down to 793,” says CEO Steve Forbes.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=101777043" target="_blank">NPR broadcast</a> tried to put an optimistic spin on the news suggesting, “All those empty spots… mean more room for the rest of us to move up.” In good fun, it even provided five secrets to do so, based upon the business activities that propelled 38 new billionaires into this year’s rankings.</p>
<p>But in all fairness, I don’t think a single one of us stands a chance of becoming a billionaire in the next year. So let’s put the <em>Forbes</em> list to better use than invoking a fanciful daydream about joining the lifestyles of the rich and famous.</p>
<p>Turns out, by focusing on the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/10/biggest-losers-adelson-buffett-billionaires-2009-billionaires-wealth-loss_slide.html" target="_blank">10 biggest losers</a> &#8211; who lost a combined $238 billion &#8211; the list contains four timeless investing lessons we can put to work immediately to prevent a similar disaster (in relative terms, of course).</p>
<p><strong>Lesson #1: Have an Exit Strategy</strong></p>
<p>While some can argue averaging down &#8211; buying more shares as prices fall to reduce your average cost per share &#8211; is a smart move, it’s stupid if you don’t ever stop. Just ask Carlos Slim Helu. To his detriment, he couldn’t resist buying more of luxury retailer Saks or The New York Times as shares plummeted.</p>
<p>Instead of endlessly throwing good money after bad, cut your losses and move on. It’s hard to do, that’s why we recommend <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/August/using-trailing-stops.html" target="_blank">using trailing stops</a>. They take all the emotion out of the decision and provide much needed discipline to exit an investment gone bad… before it gets really bad.</p>
<p><strong>Lesson #2: Don’t Try to Time the Market or Make a Few Big Bets</strong></p>
<p>We know it’s tempting. But even <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/warren-buffetts-2008-letter-to-shareholders.html" target="_blank">Warren Buffett</a> can’t do it. He admittedly “did some dumb things.” Atop the list is certainly his decision to plunk down $244 million on ConocoPhillips at the top of the oil market. Trying to make a fortune by placing a few big, well-timed bets is a surefire way to lose a fortune, not make one.</p>
<p><strong>Lesson #3: Use Leverage Sparingly… Or Not at All</strong></p>
<p>Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska needed a $4.5 billion loan from a state-controlled bank to avoid a margin call by Western Banks on his 25% stake in Norilsk Nickel. Other margin calls forced him to raise $2 billion by selling his stakes in Magna International and Hochtief. Leverage might magnify returns on the upside, but don’t forget it does the same thing to losses on the downside. And we’re not as fortunate to have a state-controlled bank to bail us out.</p>
<p><strong>Lesson #4: Asset Allocate</strong></p>
<p>This is akin to our parents telling us to “eat your vegetables.” We know it’s good for us. But that doesn’t mean we necessarily do it. Consider this your annual reminder because without exception, the 10 biggest losers on the <em>Forbes</em> list had almost all their assets in one basket.</p>
<p>Take Anil Ambani for example. His sizeable investment in India’s Reliance companies (Communications, Power and Capital) made him last year’s biggest gainer and this year’s biggest loser, down $32 billion.</p>
<p>Granted, most billionaires can’t simply unwind their biggest investments. In many cases they’re in the business they created and they need to retain a large stake to stay in control.</p>
<p>But we can. So if too much of your portfolio is invested in a single investment, it’s time for a change.</p>
<p>If we don’t invest too much (position size) in any one opportunity and spread our investments around widely (<a href="http://www.investmentu.com/asset-allocation-model.html" target="_blank">asset allocate</a>), it’s impossible to be wiped out in one fell swoop.</p>
<p>Yes, protection is that simple. And while it might not be that easy for the world’s billionaires, it is for us. So use it.</p>
<p><a class="post_title" href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/forbes-10-biggest-losers.html"><em>Forbes’</em> 10 Biggest Losers: 4 Wealth Protection Lessons From Bankrupt Billionaires</a></p>
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