At least stocks are doing well. The Dow rose another 36 points yesterday. In terms of time, it’s already beat the bounce of ’30… it’s in its 6 th month. In terms of stock prices, it’s still a laggard, however. US stocks are up about 45% from their low of 6,547 on the Dow. By that measure, the current reading of 9,398 falls a little short of the 50% increase registered 5 months after the ’29 low.

Yesterday’s news was a big disappointment for mainstream economists. It’s ‘back to the drawing board,’ says the Wall Street Journal.

The dumbbells were already celebrating the end of the recession. Just yesterday, we reported on a survey of 53 of them. They figured the stimulus was working and the recession was coming to an end.

Even the Fed seemed to think so. The Washington Post headline: “Fed views recession as near end.”

But here at the Daily Reckoning summer headquarters we were doing some more painting yesterday…

… which means, we were doing more reckoning…

We don’t know when the recession will end… but we’re dead sure that those 53 economists interviewed by Bloomberg… and those at the Fed too… don’t know either. Few of them seem to have any idea what is really going on.

And now comes news that the economy is not recovering as planned.

“Even with Cash for Clunkers retail sales fall,” reports the New York Times. Retail sales were expected to go up in July. Instead, they went down.

Bummer.

Economists also expected unemployment numbers to go down. Instead, they went up in July… and last week, 558,000 people filed for unemployment benefits – up from the week before. That brings the total to 6.7 million jobs lost since the downturn began in December ’07.

Oh… and what’s this? Foreclosures hit another record high in July… making the third new record in the last 5 months.

This is a “recovery that only a statistician could love,” says another Washington Post headline.

You can prove anything if you torture the numbers enough. But if you need a job… or need to sell your house… or refinance your mortgage – good luck to you!

And here… in the spirit of summer… of warmth and camaraderie… we would like to offer the above-mentioned economists a little help: Pssst… it ain’t a recession; it’s a depression.

Since 1945, the US economy – and much of the rest of the world economy – has been carried on the backs of American consumers. First, they spent money they earned during the war years. Then, they spent money they earned in the big boom of the ‘50s and ‘60s. And then they spent money they hadn’t earned at all. They borrowed from future earnings… increasing total US debt from just 120% of GDP in the ‘70s… to 370% of GDP in 2007.

In the last 15 years of that period, especially, each time the consumer showed a reluctance to continue spending, the feds rushed to give him more credit. And during the final 5 years – the Bubble Epoque – debt doubled.

Now, the consumer has dug in his heels. He’s not going a step further until he unloads his excess baggage of debt.

Once again, the feds are trying to stimulate him. The Fed’s key interest rate is practically at zero. The feds are pumping money into the economy as fast as they can. And they’ll give a fellow up to $4,500 if he’ll agree to kill his old car. The Cash for Clunkers programs seem cruel to us auto enthusiasts, but they have been popular, all over the world (more below.) But what good do they do?

Even with the stimulus spending… and the stimulating low interest rates… he’s still not willing to add debt. Of course, this is just what happened in Japan. The public sector spent; the private sector saved. Net result: an on-again, off-again recession that has lasted almost 20 years.

That’s a depression. It’s a point where the model no longer works. Look, how could the US economy recover? It’s a consumer-led economy, so the consumer would have to spend more money. But he’s not earning more money. He has no prospects of earning more – not with 10% unemployment and a punky economy. So, the only way he can spend more is by borrowing. Ergo, the only way the consumer economy can grow is by adding more consumer debt. Is that possible? Could the ratio of debt to GDP go to 400%… 500%… to the moon?

Well, we’ve weren’t born yesterday. We’ve been around long enough to know that almost anything is possible.

This morning’s news tells us that the federal deficit through July comes to $1.27 trillion. We didn’t think that was possible. And despite this inferno of new debt… the 10 year Treasury bond yields barely 3.6%. We never thought that was possible either.

So, anything could happen. But generally, government stimulus only works when it is not needed. That is, it only works when it goes in the same direction as the underlying trend… not against it. Just like you can make a sailboat go faster by unfurling the sails, you can speed up an expansion by offering more and easier credit.

But now, the underlying trend has reversed. It’s no longer a credit expansion; it’s a credit contraction. The consumer has had his fill of debt. He’s cutting back on his spending and paying off debt. That’s what the July figures show. That’s been the history of entire downturn. That’s why it’s a depression, not a recession. It’s a major change of direction that will take years to accomplish. Now, stimulus is not only useless – since it is against the major trend – its counterproductive. It delays and contradicts the adjustments that need to be made.

But wait. We know what you’re thinking – that the Cash for Clunkers program is a success, because it encourages consumers to buy. See. Sometimes central planning really works, right? Yes, and if you look no further than the auto sales figures for proof, who can argue? Alas, a centrally planned economy is a perverse thing… where every positive statistic has the crumpled up bodies of tortured numbers buried beneath it. Take away the ‘free money’ from the feds and there’s nothing left. No real increase in demand… just a temporary demand based on a temporary and unsustainable stimulus.

Encouraging people to buy too much was what caused the problem in the first place. Encouraging them to buy more now is not a solution, it’s just a continuation of the same flawed policy of stimulating consumer demand… a policy that has been in place for decades.

But now the wind is blowing in the other direction. The government may not like it, but they can’t stop it.

***

Vandal Economics

“In keeping with the requirement that old engines be
destroyed, mechanics across the country poured sodium
silicate into crankcases and revved engines, causing mass
car death. “It just don’t make sense,” said a
used-car-parts salesman in Dayton, Ohio. In Glenview,
Illinois, mechanics watched a blue 1994 Chevy Lumina van
wheeze and choke for five minutes before stopping. “That’s
a good American GM product,” said service manager Mark
Rolla, “that won’t die.”

Harpers Weekly

Let’s open up the hood and take a better look. Does ‘Cash for Clunkers’ really work, we ask? In answer, we guffaw. Then, we invite dead economists to guffaw with us.

Richard von Stigl, among others, pointed out in 1923 that there is a big gap between real economics and the vulgar economics that drives policy decisions. On the one hand, serious observers study what happens in a pure, natural economy and draw their truths from its crystal streams. On the other, the meddlers distort the economic world so much that the observations of the old economists hardly matter. Downstream from the meddlers’ camp the water is not even fit to drink.

In theory as well as in fact, the planners never know what they are doing:

“The… knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form,” began Friedrich Hayek in 1945, “but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess.”

A “good” is a good only insofar as it is good to the person who wants it. The public servant – as able and self-less as he may be – has to guess. History and theory tell us what happens; he usually guesses wrong. Only the individual knows what he wants and how to get it. He compares one good against others – using prices to guide him to where he gets the most good for his money. But when the government steps in with its subsidies, it effectively contaminates the stream of price information. Now, the consumer, with no clean signal to guide him, makes mistakes. He may be lured to buy a new car. The central planners may be pleased. They see the effect they desired – more auto sales. But what don’t they see? We invite Frederic Bastiat for an opinion (1850):

“Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference – the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee. Now this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse.”

But who listens to Bastiat or Hayek? Ten countries have taken up ‘cash for clunkers’ programs. In Britain the government puts up 2000 pounds to grease the deal… with a total of 300 million earmarked for the program. In America, the ‘cash for clunkers’ program was extended last week, giving buyers a bonus of $3,500 or $4,500 when they turn in an old vehicle. In France, buyers get 1,000 euros toward the purchase of a new car.

Everywhere, the program is hailed as a success. It is widely thought not only to boost auto sales, but to help revive the economy, reduce pollution, cut oil imports and even lower highway deaths. We haven’t heard that buying a new car contributes to weight loss but we haven’t seen the TV news. Even ‘free market capitalists’ such as Larry Kudlow say they like it:

“The cash-for-clunkers rebate program is working. … And the price tag of the program is a mere $2 billion compared with the trillions of dollars Washington has been wasting. So, for once in our lives, Washington spending is giving us a good bang for the buck.”

Bastiat knew better. He described a scene where a boy had broken a shop window. The store’s owner was annoyed, until a foolish economist pointed out that the broken window was a blessing in disguise. It gave work to the glaziers and glass makers. The glaziers then could buy other things… and thus did the whole economy enjoy a bounty from this single act of vandalism.

But wait; Bastiat wanted to know: if you could improve the lot of mankind by breaking windows, why not smash every window in Paris? And if you could improve the lot of mankind circa 2009 by crushing cars, why crush them all? And knock down London and New York too. Think of the boom that would accompany the rebuilding!

Obviously, it doesn’t work that way. Replacing broken windows, or crushed cars, takes resources away from some other uses. This unseen effect is actually greater than the seen effect – the improved market for new cars. Lured by phony price information, buyers send phony signals to the rest of the economy. The automakers produce more cars than they need. Steel, which might have gone to refrigerators is used for car doors. Oil, which might have been used to generate electricity, is used to stamp out fenders. Savings, that might have been invested in new industries, go to prop up an old one.

Kudlow allows himself a peek at the unseen consequences: “… yes, it’s quite possible that government rebates today will steal car sales from next year. But let’s cross that bridge next year… ” Then, he even wonders, briefly, at the obvious foolishness of it… almost as though he were a serious thinker: ‘Well, why not just spend another $100 billion and give consumers checks for everything?’ Or, ‘Why not spend another trillion?’ Well, I don’t want to go there… ”

No one wants to go there. The old economists shake their heads: ‘it’s a fraud,’ they say. The rest of them don’t give a damn.

Source: An Unsustainable Stimulus

Even Alan Greenspan admitted he had “found a flaw” in his own thinking. We will have to imagine the giggles from the back of the room – if anyone had been awake. It was as if Stalin had confessed to being rude to his mother or Bernie Madoff copped a plea for shoplifting. The mea was fine, but the culpa didn’t seem to measure up to the facts. He, more than any living human being, was responsible for the biggest financial debacle in history; you’d hope he’d be a gentleman about it and hang himself.

Meanwhile, the queen of England visited the London School of Economics and had a question: how come economists were not on top of this thing?

Last month, they replied. In a three page letter they avoided the simple truth – that their trade was no more reliable than fortune telling and marriage counseling. The letter claimed that a “psychology of denial” prevented government and financial eyes from seeing the catastrophe in front of them. It was “a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people”, they said.

In fact, it was the exact opposite — imagination run wild. Economists imagined a world without yesterday or tomorrow… a world in which you could run up debts forever and never have to pay them back.

Last week, Timothy Geithner promised the Chinese that the US economy would recover thanks to demand from the private sector. That was his way of reassuring America’s biggest creditor that the public sector wouldn’t continue to run huge deficits – practically an outright lie. But it’s one thing to stiff the Chinese; it’s another to stiff time.

Adjusted for inflation, the US consumer’s earnings barely rose from the ‘70s. By some measures, he had actually less disposable spending power in 2007 than he had in 1973. And now his income is going down. The June number reflected the biggest drop in income in 4 years. Salaries and wages fell 0.4% in June… the 9 th drop in the last 10 months. How is it possible for him to spend more?

We pose the familiar question only to set up an unfamiliar answer. In the past, the consumer reached into the future. In many cases, he reached beyond the future… into never, never land. Consumers spent money they hadn’t earned yet… thus bringing forward purchases that should have been made years later. The accumulated effect of this was to add $35 trillion in extra spending to the world economy – from America alone – over the course of the great credit expansion, 1945-2007. That’s why we have a depression now; because consumers already spent what they would normally be spending now.

Time always gets even. Now, it is the past that is doing the reaching. The automobile bought in 2006… the house bought in 2005… the vacation taken in 1999 – the ghosts of yesteryear spending reach for Americans’ paychecks. Of course, in some cases, consumers spent more than they could reasonably expect to pay back – ever. They reached so far the poor ghosts are disappointed. Lenders realized that they’d never get their money back, which is what led to the credit crunch and the collapse of Wall Street.

Of the big five – Bear, Lehman, Goldman (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Merrill (NYSE:SQD) – only two survived intact. And we know now that Goldman only survived because Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman, then Treasury Secretary, arranged a hidden bailout. He had the government step in to save AIG, which owed Goldman $13 billion.

From one scam to another… from bailing out Wall Street to bailing out the entire world economy, the more stimulus programs fail to bring a recovery, the more economists call for more stimulus.

What are they thinking? Since neither the private sector nor the public sector has any savings from the past, additional demand from either sector must be borrowed from the future. (Setting aside ‘quantitative easing’… or Zimbabwe – style stimulus… an even bigger fraud.)

The purest illustration of how this works is in the popular ‘cash for clunkers’ programs. Instead, of letting the consumer buy a new car when he is ready, the feds give them money to buy now. So, he buys in 2009 and not in 2010. What good is accomplished? It is as if they didn’t expect 2010 to ever arrive… as if they thought they could stop the sun and the seasons… and the Chinese… forever. Like moths in amber, their wings will never tatter… nor will their faith flag. The dollar will always be strong. US bonds will always be in demand. And the future will never arrive.

But the more economists try to stitch up the future; the more it gets away from them. After the 2010 sales have been moved forward to 2009, they will have to reach into 2011… and then 2012… all the way to the end of time.

Source: Stitch in Time

And I’m still recommending the company as a strong buy.

Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world’s biggest copper miners, with 12 producing mines in Indonesia, North America, and South America, along with exploration projects in Africa.  As of December 31, 2008, consolidated recoverable proven and probable reserves totaled 102.0 billion pounds of copper.  As copper prices rise, the value of the ore they have in the ground increases, resulting in a higher stock price.

Freeport-McMoRan is well positioned to capitalize on rising demand for copper.  The company’s copper production totaled 4.0 billion pounds last year, while gold production totaled 1.3 million ounces.

I expect a full recovery in the demand for copper and much less supply.  Copper is at $2.80 per pound and it could easily go over $3 per pound in a couple of months.  Production of copper can’t keep up with demand, as production at existing mines is dropping and a smaller number new mines start production.  Falling scrap supplies are also leading to lower copper inventories.

Copper is one of the best conductors of electricity.  It doesn’t corrode easily and it’s bendable and strong.  Copper is used in every industry and is absolutely necessary to sustain our society.  It’s widely used in construction, coinage, electronics and automobiles, and the price is closely tied to economic activity.  Economic activity is showing signs of a recovery and copper prices will benefit.

China, the world’s biggest metals user, should also help revive copper prices with a new wave of government stimulus spending, leading to steady construction and infrastructure activity.  Copper demand is already picking up in China during its peak construction season.  It also appears that China desires to triple its government copper reserves.

Other countries are also increasing spending on infrastructure projects like roads and bridges as well, which will boost demand for the copper used in wires and pipes.

Worldwide government stimulus spending programs spur economic growth and encourage higher copper consumption.  Copper will benefit from the “reflation trade”, which is playing out due to central governments attempting to stimulate the economy by increasing the money supply.  This “reflation” can cause inflation and benefit copper prices, and therefore FCX.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock looks good from a technical perspective as well.  The 50-day moving average is rising (a bullish indicator).  Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) and relative strength is bullish.  And the stock recently broke a double-top chart formation which is very positive, see the chart below:

I recommend you own some Freeport-McMoRan stock (FCX) as a long-term core holding for your stock portfolio.  Also, I have my eye on a new round of call options on Freeport-McMoRan that have the potential to produce gains of 200% or more as the stock moves higher.

My Options Power Trader takes all the guesswork out of selecting the right options contracts.  I will send you all the details on the options contracts that have maximum profit potential with limited downside.  There are many opportunities in these fast moving markets for options profits.  Click here to find out more about the Options Power Trader.

Best Wishes,

Ted Peroulakis

Source: Freeport-McMoRan Is Off to the Races

Alas, he did not fly. Nor even float. He fell “like a stone,” the paper reported.

Immortality was achieved, but not the way he had hoped. His stunt was captured by the new motion picture technology of the time. That silent film inspired the very popular Jackass videos, which show people engaged in reckless acts of mischief and mortality.

But we do not have to go to Youtube to enjoy the Jackass genre. We have only to read the news. All over the world the authorities are strapping on their absurd parachutes…and climbing to very high places. In Europe, banks borrowed 442 billion euros last month from the European Central Bank. Much of it is lent back to European governments. In America, stimulus funds are used to fix public toilets, as well as to repair Wall Street’s balance sheets. Trillions of dollars have been put at risk in these adventures – $23 trillion in the United States alone. And yet, despite the most daring experiment in stimulus ever, by the end of June, the British economy was 5.6% smaller than it had been a year before, paralleling the decline that followed the crash of ‘29. As for the United States…we await the figures…

On the evidence, stimulus programs aren’t working. In fact, where they are tried the most they work the least. For proof, we go to Stimulation Nation itself. From America last week came news that new house sales had finally turned up. They were up 11% in June, according to the papers. That was the monthly figure. According to the annual numbers, they were down 21% from the year before – at the second lowest since they began counting in 1963. And since the population is much bigger than it was 52 years ago, this was relatively the worst June in history for new house sales. And now that the economy is in a slump, the rate of new household formation has been cut in half. Faced with lower incomes and worsening jobs prospects, people are less eager to set up new households – reducing the demand for new houses.

Unemployment shows no sign of improving, either. The stimulus program was supposed to cap joblessness at 8%. Officially, the rate is now 9.5%. Economist David Rosenberg puts the real unemployment rate almost twice that high. And businesses are cutting jobs even faster than expected. Economist Arthur Okun suggested a rule of thumb for predicting unemployment levels in a downturn. But firms are not only laying off redundant workers; they are laying off workers who would normally be spared. What’s more, those who are left are working the shortest weeks ever recorded.

In the past, workers were quick to move to where the jobs were. The Sun Belt traditionally bounced back first. But Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada have been flattened even more than the rest of the nation – by record foreclosures, government cutbacks and bankruptcies. Now, the jobless stay put…and stay unemployed.

Currently, the excess capacity in the United States is staggering – both in labor and capital. Capacity utilization is only 65%; in theory, output can increase 35% before any new capital investments are made.

Recovery? “Forget it,” says Rosenberg.

Now that the facts are out of the way, we end our critique of stimulus…and turn to laugh at the stimulators. “Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back,” wrote John Maynard Keynes. And now it is Keynes’ voice they hear.

“We are all Keynesians now,” said Richard Nixon as he strapped on a crash helmet.

Keynes probably got the idea of a counter-cyclical stimulus in Bible class. And a good idea it was. Simple…intuitively correct…practically demonstrated…and theoretically sound. But he and his followers still managed to screw it up.

First, Keynes’ General Theory is no theory at all…at least not in the scientific sense. It can’t be tested. The results aren’t reproducible. Instead, it’s merely an idea about how things should work, based on an Old Testament story.

Pharaoh had a dream. He dreamt he saw seven fat cows devoured by seven scrawny, misbegotten cows. He didn’t know what the dream meant, so he called for a young Hebrew man who had interpreted dreams for his master. Joseph told Pharaoh that Egypt was to enjoy seven years of abundance followed by seven years of famine. He told him what he should do about it too. He should store all the grain he could from the fat years…so he could pass it out when the going got tough.

This is a story we all know. It is easy to tell and easy to understand. But modern economists twisted it as though it were an inflation statistic. They maintain that when the business cycle turns down, it’s just like a drought. And they can counteract the effect of the drought by giving the economy stimulus – liquidity – from the public sector.

Trouble is, they missed the point completely. Do you recall any public official urging the public to stop spending so much in the bubble years? Do you remember any Treasury Secretary or Fed Chairman suggesting that the U.S. government run real budget surpluses in the fat years? Does any headline from any paper in the nation mention a storeroom in which grain or treasure was stored for the lean years? Not at all! Instead, the feds encouraged people to eat their grain! Governments ran deficits even during the bubble years, with the biggest deficit in history in 2008, just as the lean years began. Now they have no real grain to offer. So they turn to a reckless, disaster-defying stunt – passing out phony money, like sawdust muffins…

Future generations will watch the video and laugh until their stomachs hurt.

Enjoy your weekend,

Bill Bonner

Source: We Are All Jackasses Now

Why would you pay 40 times earnings for a homebuilder? It’s a fairly easy business to enter. No barriers to entry that a little money… a few connections… and a circular saw can’t overcome. With no barriers to entry, profit margins are always squeezed by competition. And growth is limited too… other builders are always starting up. If the investor paid 40 times earnings, he can only get 2.5% on his money — if the company pays out 100% in dividends! So, why pay so much?

The answer has two parts. First, China is providing stimulus to its economy on a mammoth scale. It gave the signal to its banks. The banks responded by opening the flood gates. Loans in the first half of the year measured three times those of the same period a year before. Naturally, this liquidity had an effect. The economy is booming. Everything credit can buy is being bought. But… as we at the Daily Reckoning know… you can’t buy real prosperity on credit.

The other reason for the bubble in builders’ shares is that investors – especially investors in China – have learned nothing from the crash of ’07-’08.

These are our little secrets, aren’t they, Dear Reader? The rest of the world seems unaware of how the investment markets work… and they think credit is Miracle Grow for the economy.

But markets are not mathematical, nor mechanical; they’re moral. Their purpose is not to make people wealthy, but to make them wise. And then… only for a while.

It they were mathematical you might make people richer by adding zeros. But it’s not that simple. Zimbabwe tried it; it doesn’t work. A Dear Reader gave us a $10 TRILLION dollar bill – real money printed by the Zimbabwean Treasury. That – and about $5 US dollars – will buy you a cup of coffee in Harare… if they have any.

If they were purely mathematical, you might be able to anticipate price movements with computers and Ph.Ds. in math… Many have tried it. As far as we know, none has ever really succeeded.

It’s not a mechanical system either. When prices go down, there are no screws you can tighten… no levers you can pull… Nor can you add more fuel or slather on more grease. It’s not that simple.

Instead, markets are complex natural systems… Like mistresses, they can be jiggled and jived… but they can never really be controlled or predicted. That’s what makes them so interesting, of course.

The markets are always teaching us… always correcting us… always giving us a kick in the pants. These are moral lessons… in the broad sense. That is, if you do the wrong thing you get punished for it. Step on a rake; it hits you in the face.

The purpose of a bear market is to correct the errors of the preceding boom. Most prominent among those errors is to think you can make money by speculating in the stock market. What this idea takes hold, good sense goes out the window. People will buy dot.coms with no business plans… and house builders at 40 times earnings!

But that’s how we’ll know when the correction is over – when people give up on the stock market… .when they want nothing more to do with it. Judging by today’s news… we’re still a long way from there.

Get ready for another crash… the next leg down of this historic correction… the next kick in the pants… the next moral lesson.

More thoughts…

*** If investors have learned nothing so far… neither have the feds. All over the world they’re trying to solve a problem caused by too much credit by providing more credit. Trillions’ worth…
We see the result of it in China… a country where the feds have money to spend… and the power to tell bankers what to do. The markets have gone wild…

In the US and Britain, they’ve been less successful. But they haven’t given up. On the contrary… they’ve put at risk an amount equal to nearly twice the GDP of the entire US economy… and now they’re talking about stimulus II… which will probably be followed by Stimulus III and Stimulus IV… until the whole thing finally explodes in a blaze of glory…

Consumers have wised up. They seem to have learned their lesson. Savings rates have gone from zero to 7% in the past 12 months – a remarkable turnaround. Frugality is back in fashion. Thrift has been put back in the dictionary. Consumers are tired of carrying huge debt loads. They’re eager to get rid of them as soon as they can.

But neither Wall Street, nor Washington, nor investors seemed to have learned much. Wall Street is still handing out billions in bonuses – leaving its firms short of capital reserves. Investors still seem ready to jump onto whatever wagon has the most other people on it. And while the private sector ran up trillions in debt in the bubble years; now, it’s the public sector’s turn.

In 1991, borrowing by government and the private sector put together was less than 5% of GDP. But by 1998, the private sector was on a binge. Every year for the following decade, households and businesses borrowed between 10% and 15% of GDP, while government continued to borrow modest amounts… less than 5% of GDP.

In 2008, the positions reversed dramatically. Private sector borrowing collapsed to below zero – meaning, the private sector was is paying off debt, not accumulating more of it. The public sector, on the other hand, has come to the rescue with borrowings between 10% and 15% of GDP.

Of course, this is classic counter-cyclical stimulus. What the private sector giveth up on… the public sector taketh up like an unexploded hand grenade. The politicians are now pulling the pin…

Yes, dear reader, there are still lessons to be learned.

But wait… isn’t counter-cyclical stimulus a good thing? Everyone says so. Without it, said Ben Bernanke, we might have entered a Second Great Depression. And we don’t know… maybe he’s right. The private sector is no longer borrowing and spending like it used to; now, the feds have to do it, right?

Where have you been, dear reader? That’s not the way it works. The credit explosion in the bubble years didn’t really make households richer – it made them poorer. That’s why they’re struggling to pay their bills now. And the credit explosion in the public sector now isn’t going to make people richer either; it’s going to make them poorer too. Soon, the US will be struggling to pay its debts too.

That’s the moral lesson: borrowing makes you poorer. Unless you’re using the money to increase output, there’s no economic health it in. In other words, if a factory sees an opportunity, it might borrow to expand. The extra output should produce enough profit to allow it to repay the loan… and come out ahead. But if you borrow to consume, at the end of the day you’re poorer.

That’s the lesson of the Bubble Years. That’s the lesson consumers need to learn every couple of generations. And now, they seem to have learned it. They remember that the economy ran hot in the bubble époque, but it didn’t do them any good. The stimulus of the era stimulated consumption, not genuine wealth-building.

And now cometh the feds. They’re borrowing and spending on a scale never before seen. The federal deficit is expected to come to $2 trillion this year. Trillion-dollar deficits are foreseen for the next 10 years. There seems to be no way out.

What the private sector took away – about $1.4 trillion of debt-induced spending – the public sector puts back. But will this spending produce any more real wealth than the private sector binge? Let’s see… the news reports tell us they are using it to fix toilets in national parks… cut down pine trees in rural Tennessee… and bail out the bankers on Wall Street.

Is this consumption or investment? If it is investment, is it wise investment? It’s not enough to invest; you have to put money into projects that pay off… that pay dividends… projects that give you the cashflow to pay back the debt! Will federal spending for the stimulus/bailout projects do that?

Don’t even wait for the answer, dear reader; you already know what it is.

Tomorrow… the vigilantes are back… the real showdown…

Source: Get Ready for Another Crash

Well… we’re the Daily Reckoning, that’s who. And we’ll say it: they’re wrong.

This ‘recession’ is already the second longest since the first leg down of the Great Depression. That downturn of the early ‘30s went on for 43 months. This one is now at 19 months – officially – which makes it longer than any other since the Great Depression.

Is it over? Is it going away? Is that all there is?

Nope. Nope. Nope.

Instead, we are merely proceeding as we should… into a “deepening structural depression,” as John Williams puts it.

Yes, he uses the D word too. Because a D is what we have. Not an R.

It’s a depression because it requires major structural change. A recession only requires time. And not even much time… just a few months to work down inventories. But a depression takes a lot of time…to restructure industries and rebuild balance sheets. Debt needs to be paid down – or inflated away. And businesses need to redirect their efforts towards a more profitable line of activity.

Both the increase in unemployment and the slump in industrial production are worst than at any time since 1945. As for retail sales and housing starts, they’re the worst in the post-war record books.

The figures tell us that something important is going on. But what’s the key to understanding what it is? And how will it be cured?

This key is to understand that this is a major structural depression. It can’t be cured by more stimulus, because stimulus is what caused it.

This time, we need a real cure… bankruptcies, workouts, deflation, defaults… and maybe, eventually, hyperinflation.

None of those things happen easily or quickly. Businesses don’t want to go bust. Families don’t want to lose their houses. So if they get a lifeline from the feds, they grab it and hold on. And the longer they hold on, the longer it takes to make the structural changes that the economy needs.

The length of time spent in unemployment is now longest since 1948. And consumer debt, at only 12% in 1982, is now at 18% of GDP. “With that kind of debt, there is no question that the feds will implement a tight money policy,” said Marc Faber in his speech here in Vancouver yesterday. Instead, look for easier… and easier… money policies, he says.

We learned – was it yesterday? – that the feds have put up an amount equal to more than 150% to GDP to bailing out Wall Street — $23 trillion. No wonder Goldman is reporting record bonuses!

“We have to spend money to keep from going broke,” says Joe Biden, a man who is out of his depth in the bathtub.

But when you’ve got that kind of money covering your mistakes… how much restructuring are you going to do? Not much.

“Wall Street Learned Nothing,” is a headline at Forbes, making the obvious point.

The feds still believe in stimulus. And Wall Street still smiles and takes it. That’s why the recovery is still a long way off. Now, the feds are in charge of the money… and in charge of key industries, including automobiles, banking, insurance… and soon, healthcare. They’ll block innovation. They’ll prop up ailing institutions. They’ll provide more and more stimulus.

A growing group of analysts and strategists now calls for another big stimulus package. You see, the current stimulus program hasn’t worked. Why not? Well, because it was not enough… or not properly focused, say economists. In either case, the solution is not hard to figure out. Even Nouriel Roubini says “more stimulus is needed.”

So more stimulus is what we will have… and a collapsing economy… and a falling dollar… and more!

Source: Proceeding Into a Major Structural Depression

We’re scanning markets of the world today and scratching our heads… haven’t we heard this before?
There was a scare at the start of the year – banks were in trouble, the housing market was crashing and unemployment was rising. The S&P fell at a rate unseen in a long, long time. But then,a sucker’s rally! The worst was likely over, they said… stocks were oversold. The U.S. consumer, China and oil companies promised to lead us out of this mess. And of course, the current administration’s new multibillion stimulus plan will kick in any second.

After bottoming in early March, stocks soared well off their lows. With the S&P 500 at break-even for the year, stocks now face an inflection point.

Wait a second… what year is it?

We need not remind you of what happened in the second half of 2008. But it’s not worth worrying about… it’ll be different this time!
Stocks took quite a tumble Thursday. The worse-than-expected jobs report gave traders more than enough reason to be short into the three-day weekend. The S&P 500 fell nearly 3%. Since reaching its 2009 high in early June, the S&P is down 5%.
Major indexes are in trouble again today. The Dow and S&P opened down 0.75%, mostly thanks to sour moods left over from Thursday.
And just as in 2008, the smart money says there is more pain ahead:

“You may have green shoots, whatever you want to call them,” said market sage and author of The Black Swan Nassim Taleb. “You may have temporary relief, but you are still in a world that’s breaking. We’re in the middle of a crash. So if I’m going to forecast something, it is that it’s going to get worse, not better.”

And the root of all our woes, Mr. Taleb? “The monkey on our back is debt.”

Amen. This should be deja vu to our most dedicated readers…Nassim shared a similar sentiment at the 2007 Agora Financial Investment Symposium. We expect equally prophetic forecasts from our speakers this year. If you haven’t signed up to join us, better get on it right now… the show starts in two weeks.
Just like in 2008, the logical move is to sell dollars and buy useful assets, like gold. But just like last year, the current trade du jour is buy greenbacks, sell everything else. After Thursday’s, stock sell-off, the dollar index broke out of its recent range. It had been hovering just around 80 and now goes for 80.7.
“The dollar system or the system based on the dollar and euro have shown that they are flawed,” Russian President Medvedev told the international press today, yet another call from a BRIC nation to ditch the dollar. He’ll meet with President Obama this week. We wonder if he’ll have the stones to bring this up:

“In the long term, we must also think about a single unit of payment such as the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. We cannot be hostages to the economic situation of a single country, as is happening today with the United States.”
“Of the major world currencies, I have to say that Australia’s dollar is my favorite,” writes our currency man Bill Jenkins. “It has an edge because of its commodity-related economies and currencies.

“Now, Canada has the same edge. In fact, you may hear the Canadian and Australian dollars called the CommDolls (commodity dollars) for short. But Canada is inextricably tied to its neighbor to the south (namely, us), and that’s more than just a little problematic.

“Australia, on the other hand, is not tied to the United States. Instead, it’s better placed to trade with another resource-hungry nation — China.

“As China attempts to lift itself up by its own bootstraps, Australia comes into the picture. It has been widely understood that Australia is a little China. Not in culture, custom or language, but in economics. A significant part of Australia’s commodities flow into China, and the more the Chinese move ahead, the better it is for Australia.

“Also, let’s consider that Australia’s central bank is still holding its interest rates at 3%. In a fairly stable country, with a fairly stable currency, that is one heck of an attractive rate. Why, it is downright appealing!

“Indeed, Australia may now become the benefiting member of the next carry trade. After all, if can you borrow money at 0.25% and invest it at 3%, you stand to make a decent haul. And as risk appetite re-enters the market, you can bet your bottom dollar that Australia will likely be a real beneficiary.”

That’s just a snippet from Bill’s latest special report, which his Master FX Options Traders received over the weekend. Only subscribers have access to this report, which includes his provocative new short euro trade. If you want in on the action, click here.
From a technical standpoint, gold looks set for some short-term pain. Just like stocks, the gold chart is taking a page from 2008. Check it out:

When it hit the fan last year, gold failed to deliver the righteous moonshot many had forecast. It certainly was a better place to be than stocks, but gold still suffered. Until further notice, the same playbook appears to be in use today… gold may be the once and future money, but the dollar and U.S. Treasuries remain the ultimate flight to quality when the going gets tough.

After sticking to a tight range the last few weeks, gold fell today along with stocks. The spot price shed $10, to $925 an ounce.
“I see everything coming up roses for gold and those who mine it,” says Chris Mayer, armed with proof he’s not the only value hound with his eye on gold.

“For the first time in a couple of decades, some of America’s most successful, big-name investors are buying gold. David Einhorn, the hedge fund manager who predicted the downfall of Lehman Bros., recently bought gold for the first time.

“And then there is John Paulson, the guy who made billions of dollars by correctly anticipating the housing bust and credit crisis. Paulson just plunked down $1.3 billion for an 11% stake in AngloGold. He’s also got a big position in Kinross Gold.

“Peter Munk, the 81-year-old chairman and founder of Barrick Gold, also offers up his own anecdote about gold’s broadening appeal. ‘I have had more phone calls in the past six months than ever before — from people who have $120,000 inherited from grandmother, and from hedge fund managers with millions,’ he says. ‘I am not saying George Soros, but people of that caliber have told me they are buying gold.’

“You no longer have to be a gold bug to think gold will rise in price. In fact, this buying by some of the world’s greatest investors may be the leading indicator for a quick 116% climb — to $2,000 per ounce or higher. Give gold the cold stare of a professional handicapper and the odds look very good, indeed.”

Chris just gave his Capital & Crisis readers another gold stock for the long haul. He tells us it’s “a miner in a in politically safer area with a growing production profile, falling costs, a good balance sheet and a stock that is cheap on the face of it.” Sounds hard to beat, eh? For access to this pick and the rest of the C&C portfolio, click here.
Oil’s down today, too. The front-month contract is off $2, to $66 a barrel.
The American service industry contracted again in June, the ISM reports today. Their monthly gauge of the service sector scored 47 last month, 3 points below a “growth” reading of 50. At least that’s an improvement from May’s score of 44. In fact, June was the third straight monthly increase… we’ll keep on an eye on this one.
The FDIC closed down seven banks late Thursday, a single-day record for the credit crisis. That brings the total to 52 for the year. Considering the five bank failures the week before, it’s clear the pace of bank busts is accelerating.
Last in today’s deja vu issue, a role reversal that doesn’t remind us of the last 18 months whatsoever. Get this: A struggling bank bailed out a municipality over the weekend.

In an unfortunate sign of the times, many communities across the country canceled fireworks shows for the Fourth. You know the drill… budgets are tight, revenues are down, savings are nil.

New Providence, N.J., was one of those towns, until its local bank stepped in. Investors Savings Bank blew the dust of its wallet and wrote New Providence a $12,000 check to finance the fireworks display. That’s a tiny sum, even for a community bank, and probably equal parts philanthropy and marketing. But good grief… it’s the first such role reversal we’ve heard in a long time.
“How can we expect a heavily debited consumer-based economy to ‘recover’?” asks a reader, with a barrage of rhetorical questions. “When borrowing and spending drives the economy and unemployment soars and credit shrinks, how can we expect an increase in spending? When our goal is to recover and we have issues like this to deal with, can we really get there from here? I don’t see how it’s possible. In my opinion, we have been in a depression for over a year and our path from here is down, not up. What am I missing? How can our consumer economy recover? What will a recovery from here look like?

“By the way, paying a million dollars to have lunch with Buffett, who just lost $30 billion, is beyond stupid. Buffett can make it in good times, but in bad times, do just the opposite of what he does and you will get some of his money!”

The Ghosts of 2008, Gold Stocks, A Currency Play, Bank Role Reversal and More!

Everything is working out just like we thought it would. The stock market is performing as expected. The economy is on track. Even the politicians are doing what they thought they would.

Let’s begin with the stimulus/bailout/boondoggle/BS plan. As anticipated, it has failed. That is, the economy is getting worse, not better. It has failed the test set for it by its own creators. Back when the Obama Team was arguing for a big bailout bill, it warned that without a bailout unemployment would rise above 8% in 2009. ‘Pass this bill today,’ said Ben Bernanke, or words to that effect, ‘or there may not be a tomorrow for the US economy.’

Congress dutifully bent its back to the task of adding boondoggles to the bill and then okayed the measure. And here we are in the middle of 2009 and the unemployment rate is already at 9.4%.

It was obvious, even at the time, that the hacks in the administration had no idea what was going on. They were just guessing about the economy and taking advantage of the situation to pass out more money that taxpayers hadn’t even earned yet.

As predicted, the spending didn’t make the situation better; if anything, it probably made it worse – by delaying the process of destruction and hence retarding the process of creative reconstruction too.

We recall our other forecast too: when the bailout doesn’t work, they’ll pass another one. And so, in yesterday’s New York Times, there is David Leonhardt urging the pols to even bigger acts of absurdity:

“The economy really may need more help,” he says.

Yes, it will need more help. Especially if it keeps getting the kind of help it’s been getting.

The stock market is acting more or less as we thought it would too. The big bounce began on 9 March. It’s been almost 4 months now… and the bounce should be getting near its peak… and beginning to fall again. Just look at a chart of the Dow since March. You’ll see exactly that. Like a cannonball, it went up… and now it seems to be arching over for its fall to the ground.

Yesterday, the markets seemed to hang in mid air… The Dow was up 57Oil stayed at $69. Only gold seemed to know where it was going – rising $13.

As stocks roll over, the economic news rolls over too.

In the USA Today yesterday was a report that said small businesses are going broke faster than expected. Small businesses are supposed to be the survivors. Like mammals in the Ice Age, they replace the dinosaurs.

In a recession, big, costly, inflexible companies are supposed to get hit the hardest… leaving niches for small, nimble, low-cost competitors to slip into. These small businesses establish toeholds during the recession… hire people… and then scale up to the peak of commerce when the boom comes.

But this time it’s different. Small businesses are collapsing along with big ones. In April, for example, more than small 8,000 businesses went broke and filed for Chapter 11.

In addition to the business bankruptcies are the personal bankruptcies. According to the Los Angeles Times, the rate of personal bankruptcy is soaring in Southern California.

In April, according to David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, the feds added $121 million (at an annual rate) in total stimulus to the consumer economy – including tax reduction and increased benefits. In May, the total stimulus rose to $163 million. How come so many bankruptcies when the feds were giving away so much money?

The answer, says Rosenberg, is that consumers didn’t spend the money; they saved it. Consumer spending rose just $1 billion April – despite $121 billion of stimulus. In May it rose $25 billion – despite a ‘stimulus’ 6 times that amount.

Meanwhile, the saving rate, which had been only 0.2% in March of 2008 exploded to nearly 7% in May 2009.

No consumer spending, no sales. No sales, no revenues. No revenues… no staying in business.

No small businesses. No new jobs. No new jobs, no economic recovery.

No economic recovery and the meddlers are back on the Hill asking for more power and money.

Depressions take time. Bankruptcy rates don’t rise overnight. First, it takes businesses a while to realize their sales are falling. At first, they think it might be a fluke. Then, they talk to friends and read the papers. And then, the next month confirms the story.

Then, it takes time for them to react. They have to figure out where they can make cuts. Typically, this involves layoffs and job losses. Employees who will be let go need to be identified. Then, they actually have to be sent home.

Then, the employee collects benefits. He looks for another job. He draws down savings. It takes time for him to react too. He watches. He notices that it is hard to find another job. He realizes his resources are running out. He begins to cut back. Unnecessary expenses are eliminated. Then, he broadens his definition of ‘unnecessary.’

Finally, he lacks the money for the essentials. The mortgage goes unpaid. Credit card deadlines are missed. This provokes an inevitable response – warnings, more warnings, official action, and finally… defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcy filings.

We expect unemployment and bankruptcy filings to edge up throughout the summer months. Then, by the autumn, asset prices should be going down again.

*** We came back to Paris last night to celebrate our 25th wedding anniversary. It wasn’t much of a celebration… just a simple dinner for two in a simple restaurant in the old Palais Royale.

It was a hot day in Paris. We sat outside in the galleries of the old palace. Near to us was another couple. Middle-aged, they seemed like people who were getting together for the first time, not a couple who had been married for a long time. The man reminded us of John Malkovich. The woman? She was not an especially attractive woman, with straight gray/black hair cut as short as a man’s. They held hands. They looked into each others eyes. They seemed to be making plans for a happy future.

When you’ve been married for a long time, on the other hand, you have to wonder if your happiness is not more past tense than future. You can recall the happy times you spent together… how the children were when they were little… how much fun you had when you were poor and starting out in life… and all you went through together to get to where you are now. But when you look ahead, your weary eyes fail. You may feel as though you’ve said all you had to say – and agreed to disagree. You may feel as though the grand adventure of your lives has peaked out – like a bull market – with nothing but the downward slope left for you.

You may feel that the great mystery of coupling has been revealed. Getting to know someone and getting together… even fusing your flesh, blood and spirit to form fully new human beings… is there anything left to discover? Are there more surprises coming?

Inevitably, the conversation turned towards the sovereign state of South Carolina. The poor state has a jackass for a governor. Mark Sanford has become a laughingstock for the entire nation. Not because he had an illicit dalliance and lied about it – who can honestly say he hasn’t done that? – but because he is a cad. And the worst kind of cad – the kind who pretends to be sensitive and caring.

He’s found true love, he says, with an Argentine beauty. But rather than dump his wife and fly to his heartthrob… he dumps the love of his life and tells his wife that he will try to fall back in love with her. The bonehead betrays them all – his wife, his lover… and love itself. He’s even given romance a bad name.

Meeting a woman who looks like Penelope Cruz on a dance floor in South America has an undeniable romantic appeal. When the story broke, there must have been hundreds of lonely middle-aged men in America booking their tickets and looking forward to tango. The Mark and Maria affair might have made the history books of star-crossed love, along with Tristan and Iseult, Antony and Cleopatra, Brad and Jennifer. But now, a week later, we know what kind of man Mark really is. Cancel the tickets. Any man who falls in love from now will feel like a sap.

As for us, we’ve been saps all our lives. Eventually, we’ll head for the romance of Buenos Aires too. But we’ll take our main squeeze with us, just to see what happens next.

Source: When the Bailout Fails, the Feds Will Pass Another One

Wen’s new stimulus outline will raise the old-age pension for retired workers, boost the salaries of 12 million teachers, increase farmers’ income and provide more subsidies for them.

China will also cut taxes by $88 billion (600 billion yuan) and spend $124 billion (850 billion yuan) to reform reform the country’s hhe health care sector within three years.

These investments are considered separate from the $585 billion (4 trillion yuan) stimulus announced in November, but Wen made it clear that Beijing stands ready to expand its package as needed.

“We already have our plans ready to tackle even more difficult times, and to do that we have reserved adequate ammunition,” Wen said, referring to his nation’s nearly $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves. “That means that, at any time, we can introduce new stimulus policies.”

Investors’ confidence in China has started to wane recent months as unemployment has risen sharply and the nation’s once-vibrant manufacturing export sectors have shown signs of weakness.

After falling 17.5% in January, exports plunged 25.7% last month to $64.9 billion.  Imports fell 24.1% in February to $60 billion. Slightly more than 15% of China’s 130 million migrant workers – about 20 million people – have lost their jobs since the start of the global financial crisis.

However, Chinese officials continue to point to increases in fixed -asset investment and bank lending as evidence that the current stimulus plan is working. Fixed-asset investment in China climbed an estimated 26.5% year-over-year in the first two months of 2009, the National Bureau of Statistics said last week.

New domestic currency lending has increased as well, surging to 1.6 trillion yuan in January.

“I really believe we will be able to walk out of the shadow of the financial crisis at an early date,” Premier Wen said. “After this trial, I believe the Chinese economy will show greater vitality.”

With respect to the rising tide of unemployment, which could spur social unrest, Wen promised to focus on job creation, and to extend more aid to small businesses.

“We will pay all attention possible to this issue and we will never overlook this issue,” he said.

While many analysts have reduced their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy – some to as low as 6% – Wen continues to assert that China’s economy is on track for 8% growth this year.

“I believe that there is indeed some difficulty in reaching this goal,” Wen said. “But with effort it is possible.”

Premier Wen ‘Worried’ About U.S. Treasuries

While Premier Wen remains optimistic about the state of the Chinese economy, he is decidedly less confident in the outlook of the United States. Particularly, Wen voiced his concern about the value of China’s large holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” he said. “Of course, we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little bit worried. I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”

Of China’s $2 trillion in foreign currency holdings, about $1 trillion is invested in U.S. Treasuries and notes issued by other government affiliated agencies, such as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).

Last summer, China’s big state-owned banks began dramatically reducing their holdings in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. China had held about one-fifth of its currency reserves in Fannie and Freddie debt last fall, The Washington Post reported.

At the end of last year, China held about $696 billion in U.S. government securities – 46% more than at the end of 2007.

“They are worried about forever-rising deficits, which may devalue Treasuries by pushing interest rates higher,” JP Morgan & Co. (JPM) analyst Frank Gong told The Associated Press. “Inside China, there has been a lot of debate about whether they should continue to buy Treasuries.”

Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the U.S. budget deficit would nearly triple from last year’s $455 billion – and would reach a staggering $1.2 trillion. And that was even before President Obama unveiled his $787 billion stimulus, bank-rescue and anti-foreclosure plans – or other fix-up initiatives that are sure to surface in the months ahead.

The value of U.S. Treasuries has dropped steadily since the Obama administration began selling record amounts of debt to finance its economic stimulus packages. Investors lost an average of 2.9% in 2009, according to Merrill Lynch’s U.S. Treasury Master Index.

China should seek to ”fend off risks” by further diversifying its reserves, Wen said.

“We have already adopted a guiding management policy of diversifying our foreign exchange reserves, and at present our foreign exchange reserves are safe overall,” Wen said. “Our first principle in managing foreign currency is averting risk. We have always adhered to the principles of foreign currency security, liquidity and maintaining value, and implemented a strategy of diversification.”

As Money Morning detailed in as investigative report last September, the very possibility that China and other foreign countries would stop buying U.S. bonds already was enough to prompt the U.S. government to take control of foundering mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

If China, which is the United States’ largest creditor, were to continue to shy away from U.S. debt, it might find itself with even more influence over U.S. government policy. And if China were to stop buying Treasuries altogether, the results would be catastrophic. It’s conceivable that the United States wouldn’t be able to continue with its current rescue strategies, and that could ultimately lead to the collapse of the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Treasury Department responded to Wen’s concerns Friday.

“The U.S. Treasury market remains the deepest and most liquid market in the world,” said Treasury spokeswoman Heather Wong. “President Obama is committed to taking the steps necessary to restore growth and put this country on the path of fiscal sustainability, including cutting the long-term deficit in half over the next four years.”

Source: Chinese Premier Announces New Spending Plan, Voices Concern Over U.S. Treasuries

We have the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting today. Look for rate cuts from both of them, as recessions are deepening in both camps. The BOE doesn’t have many arrows in their quiver, while the ECB has held some in reserve. I doubt the ECB would go for a “huge honkin’” rate cut today, as they are normally more stick in the mud thinking… The BOE will probably move rates nearer to zero…

The currencies all had a day to bounce yesterday, more on that in a minute… But the day on the trampoline had to end, and as the day turned to night, the overnight market participants took a look at the rate cut meetings and decided to sell… So, last night when I went to bed, the euro was 1.2645… And right now it’s 1.2585… Not a huge change, but one that’s going the wrong way for euro holders.

OK, back to yesterday… All my troubles seemed so far away… Now it looks as though they’re here to stay, oh I believe in yesterday… Suddenly… NO WAIT! My fingers were going to continue that tangent! UGH! Any way… Yesterday, the currencies all rallied on the news that China was going to introduce a new stimulus package and their leader Wen Jaibao said he believed there would be a return to 8% growth for the Chinese economy. This news got commodities rolling, and risk takers dipping their toes back into the water. But then… Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai has this to say in rebuttal of Wen… “Every day the world economy gets worse and they’ve probably got two years of very slow global growth to get through.”

So… Either Wen was saying what he truly believed was going to happen… OR… He has taken a page out of the Bernanke / Paulson, un-dynamic duo’s book on how to deceive the public as to how bad things are… Oh, I know the un-dynamic duo eventually came around to say things were bad… But, all you have to do is go back to the last part of 2007, and the first part of 2008, to find all the quotes you need to fill your bag, from these two regarding how things weren’t that bad… It wasn’t a recession… And subprime won’t filter out into the economy…

What I believe is taking place in China is a move away from a dependence of U.S. consumers… Which won’t happen overnight… But, if I’m correct in this thinking, it would eventually lead to a HUGE problem for the U.S. For, if China can make this move, they won’t need to keep buying U.S. Treasuries… Uh-Oh!

There was other news that goosed the risk takers yesterday, and that came from the U.S. as reported by Reuters… “A U.S. House Financial Services subcommittee is expected to hold a hearing on mark- to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to record billions of dollars in write downs, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters.

The congressional subcommittee on capital markets has tentatively scheduled the hearing for March 12, the source said.  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s chief accountant and the chairman of accounting rule maker, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, will be asked to testify, the source said.”

So, recall about 10 days or so ago, I told you there was a rumor going around, that someone’s underground, and she will rock you in the, NO WAIT! Darn it! I’m really going off on song lyrics today, because it’s a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday! Any way, I told you about the rumor that was going around about how the dropping of the mark-to-market was being considered… Well, I said then, that I smelled smoke… And when there’s smoke there’s a fire… And here’s the proof in the pudding folks… They congressional subcommittee will talk about this next week!

I can’t believe that they will go through the effort of talking about his, dragging everyone up to Capitol Hill to testify, without suspending the mark-to-market… Now… Talk about unlocking the credit crisis! All those reserves being held to cover the mark-to-markets, could be released on the economy!

But wait! With over 500K being placed on the unemployment rosters every month these days, and most likely a number of 600K being placed on the roster last month, who in their right mind would make loans to consumers in an economy like that? Well, that will be the next hurdle, but don’t tell the markets now, as stocks really liked this news about the mark-to-market, and rallied on the day!

So… Commodities had a day in the sun, much like I will be doing in about a week from now! Or, should I say “hope there’s sun?” Doesn’t matter much to me, as I’ll be in the ball-park next Saturday watching my beloved St. Louis Cardinals with my family at my side… It doesn’t get any better than that my friends! Oh! I was talking about commodities… Well, the commodities that rallied didn’t include Gold, as the shiny metal has seen better days this past week after hitting $1,002… I would have to think that $900 or $890 is a level it will hold. Consider, if you will, the fact that there’s so much uncertainty in the world today… And… Surrounding that uncertainty is the fact that so many Central Banks are near zero with their rates, and have announced quantitative easing as their next move… Recall, I told you a day or two ago that the Bank of Canada has joined the ranks of those employing the quantitative easing measures… The list is getting longer all the time, and now includes the Fed, the BOE, the Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada… There’ll be more, as we go along… What else can a Central Bank do, after they’ve cut rates to the bone?

So… As I said the other day… I truly believe that Gold is trading at a discount right now… But, that’s just my opinion, not that of EverBank’s, and I could be wrong… I certainly was wrong about the Obama bounce, eh? I wasn’t wrong about calling the end of the Great Unwinding of the Carry Trade, though! Nailed that one to the wall!

Speaking of the end of the unwinding of the Carry Trade (let’s see how would my friend, the Mogambo shorten that… EOTUOTCT!) Japanese yen continues to weaken, after being the best performing currency of 2008, it is now the worst performing currency of 2009! And there doesn’t seem to be any change in that selling patter for yen… In fact, there was a story yesterday on Bloomberg that caught my eye… “Scottish Widows Investment Partnership, which oversees 42 billion pounds ($59 billion) in bonds and currencies, cut its yen-denominated holdings by a fifth because of Japan’s worsening economic situation.”

Before I head to the Big Finish, I wanted to mention the Richard Russell Tribute Dinner that is going to take place in one of my fave cities, San Diego, on April 4… My friend, John Mauldin, is putting this all together, so if your interested in attending, here’s a link to click for more information…. https://www.johnmauldin.com/russell-tribute.html

Currencies today 3/5/09: A$.6425, kiwi .5010, C$ .78, euro 1.2565, sterling 1.4245, Swiss .8510, rand 10.5250, krone 7.1150, SEK 9.1325, forint 247.55, zloty 3.7675, koruna 21.9925, yen 99.40, sing 1.5540, HKD 7.7580, INR 51.70, China 6.8405, pesos 15.30, BRL 2.3680, dollar index 88.98, Oil $44.41, Silver $13.09, and Gold… $916.60

Source: China Announces A Stimulus Plan