This from Investment U:

Value investors, consider this your warning… With thousands of stocks down 50% (or more), investors are salivating over the bargains. But for every true deal, there are at least three “value traps” – stocks destined to languish at depressed levels indefinitely. Or worse, get cheaper still.

Think Kmart here. In late 2001, it became the poster child for value investors. They argued it was dirt cheap based on countless metrics like book value and sales. And it was destined for a historic turnaround.

Sure enough, the stock went from the bargain bin to the trash heap, as the company filed bankruptcy in early 2002.

So before you go bargain hunting in this market, arm yourself with this list. It could be your only chance to avoid getting snared by the countless “Kmarts” begging for your investment…

Value Stocks & Value Traps

In theory, a value stock is a beaten-down company that’s:

• 1. Cheap compared to its earnings, its competitors and/or some other relevant benchmark
• 2. Poised for a turnaround.

In contrast, a value-trap is simply:

• A beaten-down company that’s cheap compared to its earnings, its competitors and/or some other relevant benchmark
• That never quite turns around.

Unfortunately, no formula exists to calculate when, or if, a turnaround will ever occur.

10 Questions To Help Value Investors

These 10 questions should help any value investor. And ultimately, keep you out of most value traps…

1. Is there a near-term catalyst? First things first, if there’s nothing on the horizon – like a new product launch, key marketing arrangement, a shake-up of the executives, the conversion of a massive order backlog, etc. – we shouldn’t bother. Companies and stocks need catalysts in order to advance. If none exist in the next 12 to 18 months, chances are the stock will be stuck in neutral, or worse, reverse.
2. What are insiders doing? Nobody knows the company – and its future prospects – better than the insiders. If they’re not salivating over the “cheap” prices and backing up the truck, we shouldn’t either.
3. Is the company addicted to debt? Too much debt magnifies the impact of tough times. As sales decrease, interest payments take up more and more of the company’s earnings. Not to mention, unwinding leverage is a time-consuming process. So even if the company boasts new, fiscally responsible management, beware. Or as Warren Buffett observes, “When a management with a reputation for brilliance takes on a business with a reputation for bad economics, it’s the reputation of the business that remains intact.”
4. Does the dividend yield seem too good to be true? Value investors love to tout they “get paid to wait” for a turnaround. Granted, many stocks do maintain their dividends through a downturn. But countless others don’t. They slash or cancel them altogether, just to stay in business. No matter how tempting, tread carefully when the dividend yield hits double-digit levels.
5. Is the company just as “cheap” based on the future? At first glance Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) appears dirt cheap, trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 2.96. But don’t be fooled. Or get too easily excited. Remember, the PE ratios cited on most financial websites are historical. And as investors, we don’t care what a company was worth… we care about what it will be worth. So before you buy, make sure the stocks forward PE ratio is similarly attractive. (FYI – Eastman’s is not. It trades at 27 times forward earnings. Hardly cheap.)
6. Which direction is the company’s market share headed? A general economic slowdown is one thing. But when a company’s losing market share, too, that’s an indication that a competitor has a better mousetrap. And while economic growth is cyclical, market share is not. Even if the economy or industry turns around, chances are the company’s market share won’t.
7. Does the company operate in a highly cyclical or moribund industry? If you go hunting in a highly cyclical industry (like semiconductors) you’re asking for trouble. Same goes for industries destined for obsolescence (like print media). To win with these stocks, you need both the company’s misfortunes and the industry’s to reverse course.
8. How’s the free cash flow? Earnings can be massaged, manipulated or completely fabricated. But cash cannot. So make sure free cash flow is stable, or growing. If nothing less, it provides management with a little wiggle room, or margin of error when considering ways to speed up a turnaround.
9. Is the stock liquid enough? Just like insiders provide support to share prices, so do institutions (mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, etc). Both groups can move stocks prices quickly and significantly. However, many institutions can’t or won’t buy stocks trading for less than $10, with a market cap below $1 billion and/or that don’t trade several million dollars worth of shares each day. Without the potential for institutional ownership, a quick rebound in prices becomes less likely.
10. Does the company have a sustainable competitive advantage? For a stock to turnaround we need the company to thrive, not survive. That’s not possible without a sustainable competitive advantage. So stick to companies like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) that are light-years ahead of the competition in terms of design, market share, new product offerings and/or technology.

In the end, don’t kid yourself. Detecting a value trap is no easy task. Even the best investors occasionally get snared. Think Bill Miller (with Countrywide and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE)) and Carl Icahn (with Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) and Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)).

But at the very least, these 10 questions will ensure you never buy blindly, or on price alone.

Source: Value Investors – Beware The Value Traps

This from Today’s Financial News:

Revenue for Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN) in Q3 slowed, as it did at most casino operations. But due to the termination of an attempted acquisition deal, the company received a settlement of a cool $225 million. In addition, the (intended) acquisition group purchased 12,500 shares of Series B Redeemable Preferred Stock due 2015 for $1.25 billion.

As a result, Penn reported a net income of $147.5 million. That’s $100.9 million more than the same quarter last year!

Currently, Penn operates 19 facilities in 15 jurisdictions. With this influx of cash, the company has declared itself ready to expand.

Waiting for November 4

Thanks to huge budget deficits, the State of Maryland is reconsidering its former stance on slot machines. This election day, my fellow Marylanders are likely to approve a referendum that would open the state for slots.

Penn has indicated interest in contracts to run slots facilities in Maryland. If the referendum to permit the five proposed sites is passed, the company will be ready to move on the bidding process.

Priced around $20, Penn had seen a 52-week high of $62.25. And with a P/E of 6.5, this company holds promise.

I recommend you buys shares of Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ:PENN) today [Friday] at or under $21. Depending on the outcome of the referendum, you could see short-term gains of 20% within the first weeks of November.

Source: Profit referendum: How this election day could boost Penn National (PENN)

More from Investor’s Daily Edge:

Years ago, my friend Bob Meier told me that bears start every bull market. Sounded strange. But it’s true.

Bulls push rallies farther and higher on big hopes, but they’re not the ones to start them. But bulls are like adolescents. They don’t handle adversity well. And just about the time the bulls are upset because they aren’t going to make 40% a year, the bears are smelling honey in those trees. They are seeing stocks that should go up 15% to 20% and priced at half to two-thirds of their fair value.

But how does a bear know what the fair value is?

Because the market has standards and traditions. Bears are the ones who know them.

For instance, you have heard that the normal historical P/E for the stock market in the United States is 15. Good research shows that it is actually around 16 (Jeremy Siegel) to 17 (Ned Davis). It swings around those numbers, not often much lower, but in recent years a lot higher.

And today the P/E ratio for the S&P based on the last four quarters’ earnings (the trailing 12 months or ttm) is only 10. It hasn’t been this low since the early 1980s. Right before the last great bull market.

Things are just as deeply discounted on other valuation scales. The price to sales ratios for the NYSE and Nasdaq average 0.85 today. That implies almost everything is a great bargain because a ratio of 1.0 is considered a strong value. Most of the time, this ratio is closer to 1.2 to 1.5 and it sometimes goes much higher.

Price to book value? It is actually 1.0 for Nasdaq and 1.5 for the S&P 500. The implies that most companies are now selling for the replacement cost of their assets or exactly what shareholders have invested in the company. The S&P’s price to book ratio is usually over 2.0, and a ratio of 4.0 is not uncommon because a business is much more than a package of assets.

Finally, there’s price to cash flow. I like to see a ratio of 10.0 or lower, and it can be a challenge to find strong companies going for less that 15 in many years. Today the market average is 8.5 and the S&P is 9.9.

Now why would that make a bear happy? Because if he buys a stock that’s at a P/E of 10 today, and it usually goes for a P/E of 18, he’s already got one paw in the honey jar. The stock should appreciate by 80% simply if it can get back to its normal valuation. Then add any growth on top of that and you are seeing triple digit gains.

But don’t expect that these bargains mean the market “must” turn around immediately and sharply. The real bears are cool value hunters, typically cautious and experienced investors. They are likely to average in carefully.

Still, if you want a reason for the stock market to take off—turn on the Bernanke-Greenspan show and simply look at the stock market. The reasons for the next bull market are already in place.

Source: Sweet Honey in the Rock?