Bill Bonner (The Daily Reckoning, UK):

The ‘recession’ did more damage than they think

Claptrap! Nonsense! Balderdash!

Everywhere we look, someone is saying something ridiculous.

Which is good news to us. This Daily Reckoning was getting to be serious work…what with the world facing a total financial meltdown and all.

So, we’re pleased to be able to lighten up by, once again, telling you what an idiot Tom Friedman is. You already knew that? Well, it doesn’t hurt to repeat it…

We hadn’t seen much of the old Tom recently. His recent editorials in the New York Times were no smarter than before, but a bit subdued…as if some chemical trace of good sense had slipped into his system, perhaps from a paper cut. But now, he’s back, big as life and twice as stupid.

We’ll come back to Tom in a moment, but since this is a financial service, we should probably begin with the financial news.

The Financial Times is looking over its shoulder. The recession is over, it says; time to take stock of the damage.

“Beyond the Crisis… With most of the world’s economies officially out of recession, the FT launches a series examining the legacy of worst global economic crisis since the 1930s,” says the FT. But according to the figures below the headline, the crisis wasn’t so bad. The US economy walked backward only 3.5%. Now, it’s making progress again.

The FT editors should keep their eyes on the road. The ‘recession’ did more damage than they think. And it isn’t over… There’s more trouble ahead.

The ‘recession’ in the US has wiped out…

…ten years of stock market progress. Actually, stock prices are no higher than they were in 1998…

…ten years of employment progress. You have to go back to the ’90s to find a time when so few people were working in America…

…ten years of income gains. The typical household had less real, disposable income than it had 10 years ago.

In other words, a whole decade has been lost. Baby boomers are now ten years older, and less prepared for retirement than any previous generation in US history.

In Florida, joblessness has reached 11.2%. The jobless picture gets even grimmer when you consider the effect of long-term unemployment on the unemployed.

“It’s a killer disease,” says Thomas Cottle of Boston University. “People are going to be damaged and may not recover in their lifetimes.”

The FT elaborates: “The longer people are out of work the more their skills decline and the less appealing they become to employers.”

That puts the boomers in a bad spot. If they lose their jobs now they may never work again. Which means, they will face retirement with very little money…and a keen interest in making sure the feds keep the money flowing their way. They may not recover in their lifetimes…

Housing starts are at a 10-month low. Mortgage applications are at a 12-year low. As far as we can tell, both housing and employment figures are getting worse.

In short, the ‘recession’ is far from over, even if the feds are able to jive up the GDP figures from time to time.

Click here for the rest of Mr. Bonner’s insightful analysis at The Daily Reckoning, UK edition.

Since the stock market rally reached a pinnacle nearly two weeks ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost about 3.3% while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has fallen about 3.7%. And if this week’s earnings report come in below expectations, the rally that helped stock prices surge more than 50% could come to an abrupt end.

Fortunately, many of the companies set to report earnings this week are traditionally strong performers and for the most part, companies that have weathered the financial crisis. But not all of them have met Wall Street’s expectations.

The quarterly results for five companies in particular – Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), Costco Wholesale Corp. (Nasdaq: COST), Monsanto Corp. (NYSE: MON) and PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) – will of particular interest to investors.

Yum! Brands Inc.

Scheduled to report today (Tuesday), the Louisville, Ky.-based Yum! will be one of the first companies to report its quarterly take.

As owner of the Taco Bell, Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) and Pizza Hut brands, Yum! is the world’s largest restaurant company. Even more impressive, the company has beaten the market’s consensus forecast in the last four quarterly reporting periods.

Analysts’ estimates for the quarter ending September 2009 range from a low of 52 cents a share to a high of 63 cents a share, with a consensus of $0.59 a share. Yum will lean heavily on its international business if it’s going to continue its trend of topping analysts’ estimates.

Yum! is a well balanced company with about 41% of its 2008 operating profit coming from the United States and the rest from overseas – particularly China.

By 2013, China will account for 40% of Yum’s operating profit – up from 28% in 2008 – while the United States and the rest of the world will each account for a 30% share, according to company projections.

KFC, in particular, has long seen its most robust growth coming from China, with less than 10% of its franchises on the mainland accounting for more than a quarter of the company’s earnings.

Yum! added 328 new restaurants in the second quarter, including 118 in Mainland China.

“Yum!’s global growth potential, consistent performance and track record of generating strong free cash flow give us the confidence and ability to return significant cash to our shareholders even in these challenging economic times,” said Yum! Chief Executive Officer David Novak.

An analyst with Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS) earlier this week told Barron’s that Yum! shares deserve a better premium because of its large international footprint and ongoing reallocation of capital.

Yum! shares should trade at a premium to their peer group and could climb nearly 25%, a the analyst said.

Shares of Yum! surged 5.13% yesterday to close at $34.85.

Alcoa Inc.

Though its release comes a day after Yum’s, Alcoa’s quarterly report marks the unofficial start of earnings season.

Hit hard by the collapse of commodities prices and sluggish industrial demand, Alcoa has missed earnings expectations in three of the past four quarters. And the company’s latest earnings report will likely show that its struggles continued, albeit at a slower pace.

Alcoa is expected to report a net loss of 12 cents per share for the three months that ended in September. That’s down substantially from a profit of 37 cents a share in the same period last year, but would be a marked improvement on the 32 cents a share loss the company posted in the second quarter.

Indeed, Alcoa’s earnings will provide an important look at just how far global demand for industrial metals has come. Hopes are high, as Alcoa stock has surged more than 143% since mid-March.

Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) analyst Jorge Beristain has increased his rating of Pittsburgh-based Alcoa to “Buy” from “Hold” and increased his price target to $17 from $12.

The upgrade partially reflects Deutsche Bank’s higher price projections for base metals. The bank sees base metal prices climbing an average of 31% next year, on account of strong third-quarter “price surges” and increased demand from China, Beristain said in a note to clients.

“China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for industrial raw materials has led to record high imports in many metals and a consequent tightening in market balances,” he said.

Alcoa’s stock rose 4.68% in trading yesterday, to close at $13.42 a share.

Costco Wholesale Corp.

Costco is the largest membership warehouse club chain in the world by sales volume. That makes it an ideal choice for cost-conscious consumers. Costco has enjoyed seven straight years of earnings growth, but the company’s past two quarters have disappointed investors.

The third time might be the charm for the nation’s largest warehouse chain. William Blair & Co. LLC analyst Mark Miller last month upgraded the stock to “Outperform” from “Market Perform” and after the company stepped up sales in August.

Sales at established locations declined 2%, beating Wall Street expectations for a larger 5.7% decline.

“With the step-up in sales during August and positive takeaways from our meeting last week with [Costco Chief Financial Officer] Richard Galanti and [Vice President of Financial Planning and Investor Relations] Bob Nelson, we are more confident that sales and earnings could meaningfully surpass Street expectations over the next year,” said Miller.

Like Yum!, Costco could receive a significant bump from its overseas operations, as recent store openings in Asia have been strong and the dollar has weakened.

For the third quarter, the average analysts’ estimate is for a profit of 76 cents a share – a 17% drop from the 92 cents a share it earned in the same quarter last year.

Costco CEO Jim Sinegal said earlier this month in an interview with Motley Fool that he expects his company to turn around regardless of whether or not the economy experiences a quick recovery.

“We can always blame bad sales on weather and on economic conditions and everything else,” he said. “But when we have the right merchandise out on the floor, it sells. … [We] don’t like the fact that the [average customer] basket is down, but we certainly like the fact that the customers are coming back more frequently and, as things turn, they will start to buy again. Now it is on us to get the hot merchandise.”

Costco stock edged up 0.73% yesterday to close at $56.88 a share.

Monsanto Co.

As the world’s largest producer of genetically modified seeds, Monsanto is a closely watched biotech bellwether. Like Alcoa, Monsanto was hit in recent quarters by a drop in commodities prices, as well as a drop in demand for its products.

However, the company announced an acquisition, a partnership, and a divestiture in its fiscal fourth quarter. It is expected to squeeze out a one cent per share profit, compared to three cents per share loss in the same quarter last year.

Monsanto’s acquisition of WestBred LLC – a Montana-based company that specializes in wheat germplasm – will bring wheat into its seeds and traits portfolio, and its joint venture with Dole Fresh Vegetables, Inc. will put more genetically modified vegetables on Monsanto’s plate. Meanwhile, Monsanto’s divestiture of its global sunflower assets to Syngenta brought in $160 million.

The company also shed 9,000 employees in a bid to cut costs, and despite being heavily targeted by anti-trust groups and chief rival E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD), Monsanto insists it’s on track to more than double its 2007 profit by the year 2012.

“We have committed to using our technology to double yields in our three core crops – corn, soybeans and cotton – by 2030, while reducing our use of key resources by one-third per unit produced,” said Monsanto Chairman and CEO Hugh Grant. “Innovation has us well on our way to achieving this, with our most robust pipeline ever. We’re on the verge of an unprecedented technology explosion that will deliver the types of products growers want most – those that offer greater yield and value.”

By 2012, Monsanto expects its gross profit from its core seeds and traits business to be between $7.3 billion and $7.5 billion – about 2.5 times its 2007 level. Grant said this increase will be facilitated by the development of seven new “high impact technologies” that by 2020 will boost revenue by $3 billion.

Monsanto has reported better-than-expected earnings in the past three quarters, and at Monday’s close of $74.85 a share is an undervalued stock according to Morningstar.

“Monsanto is a fierce competitor that continues to dominate a market that it essentially created more than a decade ago,” said Morningstar senior analyst Ben Johnson. “Through its ongoing commitment to research and development and assertive capital allocation, the company has positioned itself to grow value for its shareholders over the long haul.”

PepsicCo Inc.

Of all the companies reporting this week, PepsiCo has generated the most buzz. Bullish speculators yesterday piled into PepsiCo call options after Deutsche Bank raised its earnings for the salty-snack-and-soda giant.

Call volume surged by nearly 700%, according to optionMonster.

Deutsche Bank raised its price target for PepsiCo shares, which closed yesterday at $60.85, to $70 from $66. The bank maintained its buy rating on the stock, and said shares have been negatively affected by an “unwarranted deal overhang” related to the company’s acquisition of Pepsi Bottling Group Inc (NYSE: PBG).

PepsiCo in August said it would merge with Pepsi Bottling, as well as invest in Russia, during the three months that ended in September, and is expected to post a profit of $1.02 per share – four cents per share less than a year ago. Revenue for the quarter is expected to come to $11.3 billion, about the same as last year.

PepsiCo has only missed expectations in one of the past four quarters, and by just two cents at that.

Source: The Five Stocks to Watch This Week

The new movie – Zombieland – about a group of survivors in a world of zombies, was the biggest grossing film in America and Canada over the weekend. It must reflect the zeitgeist of the North American public…a deep feeling that we are living in a decaying world.

Maybe it comes from the growing awareness that the old bubble economy of the 2002-2007 period is dead. Now, survivors must defend themselves from the zombies.

Survivors are being attacked in the streets, in their homes, and at their workplaces. Zombie banks – kept alive by artificial stimulants provided by the feds – take their money and their houses. Living-dead companies block new competitors. And the zombies at the Fed and the Treasury department try to gnaw on their savings, encouraging inflation to eat away the purchasing power of the dollar.

As to this last point, the feds have gotten nowhere. They wear down their teeth for nothing. Prices are going down, not up. Houses are 30% cheaper than they were in 2006. Hotel rooms are 20% cheaper than last year. You want a luxury room? Just ask for an upgrade. Chances are good that no one is renting the luxury suites. Just make them an offer. Discounts are available almost everywhere. The Sony Playstation, for example, is now available – 25% off.

Stocks are cheaper too. They’ve been going up for the last seven months, but they’re still about a third less than they were in 2007.

Stocks fell again on Friday. Investors began to fret that maybe…just maybe…the authorities don’t have this zombie problem under control.

“Jobs news gets worse,” The New York Times tells us.

Since the stock market began going back up in March, the United States has lost 2.5 million jobs. It has lost jobs every month since December 2007. Now, unemployment – officially at one in ten workers – is the worst it has been in 26 years.

What kind of recovery is this? We don’t know, but if it continues much longer we’ll all be unemployed.

But not to worry, dear reader. Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner says the signs of recovery are “stronger” than expected.

We wonder what signs he’s looking at. Of course, this is the same doctor who was on the scene at the New York Fed when strange things began happening. The financial industry started acting funny in the bubble years…spending money like there was no tomorrow. And then, wouldn’t you know it, there wasn’t any tomorrow. They dropped dead in the crash of ’07-’08. But with huge injections from the Fed, they’ve turned into Zombies.

Of course, Tim Geithner missed the whole thing. So maybe he’s not the best source of recovery sightings.

A survey by Business Roundtable tells us that the ranks of the unemployed are likely to swell. Only 13% of employers have plans to hire more workers. The rest are either sitting tight…or turning workers loose.

Naturally, of all those people cut off from paychecks, more than a few are looking a little peaked. Their eyes sink back in their heads. Their skin turns grey. Soon, they’re starving for raw meat.

“Personal bankruptcies soar,” says The Wall Street Journal.

And not surprisingly, when they become desperate, they tend to default on their mortgages. We know already that auto sales drove off a cliff when the summertime ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program came to an end. Now, summer’s over. Housing sales should decline too – forcing more homeowners into default and foreclosure.

The zombies are having a depressing effect everywhere. The stock market went down again on Friday…the Dow fell 21 points. The oil market didn’t do much better, with the price of the black good still below $70.

As for gold, the yellow metal continues to hold above $1,000. It fell below $1,0 00 for just a couple days. On Friday, it was back to $1,004.

The $1,000 level used to be a ceiling for the gold price. Now it seems like a floor. Are the Chinese buying below $1,000? Maybe. Do we have a Beijing put option available to us? That is, has the risk been taken out of the gold market by China’s desire to stock its vault with something other than dollars? It is an intriguing thought. We don’t know the answer.

We are holding onto our gold. It’s insurance – protection against the feds. If they do something really stupid, the price of gold will soar. If they don’t do anything really stupid, well, we’ll be surprised. After all, they’ve already turned America into Zombieland.

On our last visit to the French countryside, in Normandy, we noticed a big pile of hay beside the road, with a sign on it: “Free Milk”

Another pile of hay had another message: “Farmers On Strike.”

The story behind these signs has a depression-era, black and white, look to it. Newsreels from the Great Depression show US farmers dumping milk rather than sell it at deflated prices. Now, French farmers do the same. Prices have fallen so low that many refuse to sell it at all.

But they can’t stop milking the cows. So what do they do with the milk? They give it away. Or, in a few instances, they throw it at the government’s farm agency offices.

Meanwhile, a story in The New York Times explains one of the reasons why milk has become so cheap. New technology makes it easier and cheaper to produce good milk cows.

Technology and globalization are inherently deflationary. The former increases productivity, thus lowering the cost of output. The latter lowers prices by directing business to the world’s lowest-cost producers.

Deflation is the natural order of things. Inflation is always an artifice caused by government. Central banks ‘target’ a certain level of inflation because they think – or say they think – that a bit of inflation helps create full employment. And it does, sometimes. But it does it by treachery. Inflation hoodwinks the working class. It reduces their real wages, making them cheaper to employ. Then, the proles wise up. They realize that prices are rising. They demand more wage increases. That is when inflation begins to get out of control and presidents get out the ‘Whip Inflation Now’ buttons.

Every time government offers to solve a problem, it inevitably makes the problem worse – except, occasionally, in rare episodes when a government-organized national defense pays off.

Two interesting news items in the British press, one inspiring…one pathetic.

The first concerns how to fight terrorism…and win! Terrorists use the local population in Northwest Pakistan like the New Jersey militia used the local population of Pennsylvania when it was putting down the Whisky Rebellion. That is, they barge into houses and demand food and lodging.

One brave man said ‘no.’

The terrorists were giving him a good thrashing when his daughter took the initiative. She hit one with an axe, took is AK47, and shot him dead. The other two fled.

Once again, we see how private initiative – at negligible cost – can succeed where trillion-dollar government boondoggles fail. Why make a federal case out of it? Got a problem with a terrorist? Whack him!

The other story was front-page fodder for the Telegraph last week. It illustrated the real problem with suicidal people – they think only of themselves.

A young woman was depressed because she couldn’t have children. She decided to kill herself. She drank poison…and then called the ambulance. At the hospital, she was still conscious and told doctors that under UK legislation she had a “right to die.” The doctors were forbidden from treating her. She died.

Naturally, her parents were upset. Hadn’t the doctors taken an oath? Weren’t they morally bound to intervene, no matter what the law said? She made them all complicit in a homicide. A more considerate person would have stayed home.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner

Source: Welcome to Zombieland

The S&P 500 is up almost 60% since March. The Dow just had its best quarter since ’98.

Yesterday, the Dow slipped 29 points. Is the rally finally rolling over? Or is this a genuine bull market, just taking a pause?

If it is a real bull market it’s a funny-looking bull – one that is missing parts!

For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued on a cyclically-adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.

And if you look at it in terms of its “q” ratio – a comparison of capitalisation and replacement costs – the S&P is even more overvalued. As for emerging markets, “they’re off the charts,” says the Financial Times.

Another missing part is the consumer. This from David Rosenberg:

“ Consumer confidence not only surprised to the downside in September but the Conference Board index actually fell to 53.1 from 54.5 with both the ‘present situation’ and the ‘expectations’ component failing to build on the August rebound. Before we go any further on the details, let’s recall the following:

Just to put a 53.0 reading into proper perspective. It’s still recessionary… The only categories that actually saw their confidence level rise in September were the ones in the lowest income strata – less than $25,000 (their confidence rose two points). After all, they’re the only ones really benefitting from all the government intervention into the economy and the markets. ”

It’s not hard to figure out why consumers lack confidence: this bull is lacking in jobs, too. A worse-than-forecast report came in from ADP Employer Services yesterday. It said US companies cut 254,000 more jobs in September. And Reuters reports that jobless rate rose in August in all US cities.

The bull is also missing production. Another report told us that manufacturing activity in the Chicago area is still in recession. In the US as a whole, the latest numbers tell us that GDP fell in the second quarter – but by less than forecast.

‘Less than forecast’ might be good news if stocks were at an epic low. Instead, at current levels, it is much like a doctor who tells the family: “Thank God he got medical attention. He’s dead, but not as dead as he would have been without it.”

Another important part this bull market is missing is the retail stock market investor. Hey, this rally has no legs at all!

We have insisted – with no proof, up until now – that the small investor is no longer counting on the stock market for his retirement. He’s seen what can happen. At the low in March, adjusted for inflation, he was back to where he was 40 years ago. That is, in real terms, he had not made a dime from the stock market (aside from dividends) during his entire adult lifetime. We guessed that he was not buying stocks.

Now, here’s the evidence.

According to TrimTabs, only $2.5 billion (£1.6 billion) has gone into equity mutual funds in the last six months. Bond funds have attracted 13 times as much money as equity funds, says a Morningstar report.

“ US retail investors… have watched this rally from the sidelines,” the FT concludes.

Wait a minute. Someone is pushing up stock prices. If not the retail trade, who? We don’t know. Maybe hedge funds. Maybe institutional speculators. The pros have a different outlook.

If this rally turns out to be real, and they miss it, their jobs and reputations are in danger. If it turns out to be phony, on the other hand, they risk clients’ money. On balance… they are better off getting in than staying out.

But just as the pros jump like lemmings into equities… they could all scramble out fast. Give them a fright… and this rally is over.

Where might the fright come from? We can think of several possibilities. One is the housing sector. If repossessions begin to increase… and prices fall… even the pros may put two and two together. Likewise, a shocking unemployment number could cause them to connect the dots.

Another thing that may trigger a sell-off in the stock market: a sudden setback in China…

Today is a big day in China… it marks the 60 th anniversary of the communist rise to power. “The Chinese people have stood up,” said Mao, announcing the victory in 1949.

Then, over the next two decades, whenever the Chinese stood up… Mao shot them down himself. Mao’s long march to power was a huge setback for human political progress – if there is any. The man was a thorough scoundrel and a complete incompetent at everything, except getting power and holding onto it.

Every program was a disaster. When he set out to ‘liberate’ the masses, they ended up as slaves. When he set out to feed them, they starved. When he proposed to empower them with his “democratic dictatorship”, they ended up with bullets in the back of the head.

But 60 years later, the commies are still in power. China is still red.

And yet, thanks to the curious way the world turns, China’s economy is now freer and more competitive in many ways than the US. Go figure.

*** As economies age, more and more people become ‘rentiers’. That is, they get some special privilege… some inside angle… some conniving advantage. The latest numbers, for example, tell us that almost half of all households pay no federal taxes. They collect benefits – jobless benefits, food stamps, education, day care, health care, social security – without contributing to the system that provides them. Then there are the millions of households that pay taxes but receive a large part of their money from the government itself – employees, contractors, lobbyists, etc. Combine these and you have enough to win any election in the country.

But the welfare chiselers and food stamp cheats are small-time crooks. The big crooks go for billions. John Crudele in the New York Post:

“… September 18, 2008 [ US Secretary of the Treasury... Henry] Paulson placed his first call of the day at 6:55am, to Lloyd Blankfein, who succeeded Paulson as CEO of Goldman. It’s unclear whether the two connected, because Blankfein called Paulson minutes later.

“And then Blankfein placed another call to Paulson at 7:05am for what looks like a ten-minute conversation.

“After that Paulson called Christopher Cox, Securities & Exchange Commission Chairman, twice; British chancellor Alistair Darling; and New York Federal Reserve head (and now Treasury Secretary) Tim Geithner two times.

“Then Paulson took another call from Goldman’s Blankfein.

“It wasn’t even 9am yet – 30 minutes before the stock market was to open – and Paulson and Blankfein had already exchanged three phone calls.”

It pays to have friends in high places. That was the day the market learned of Paulson’s bailout proposals. Could Goldman have gotten word before others?

Hey, we’re not accusing anyone…

*** “I can’t make this work. It’s too hard. It’s too complicated. And there are too many other people doing a lot better stuff.”

Jules is free, white and 21 years old. His daddy’s rich (at least he would be rich if he lived in, say, Pakistan) and his mummy’s good-looking. But Jules is worried. He recently graduated from college and has decided to begin a career in music. He has begun a two-piece band, called ‘Royal Native’ and has produced an album. All who have heard it are impressed. But the challenge of turning a pair of talented young musicians into a going, moneymaking concern is daunting. Almost overwhelming.

“There are just so many groups doing similar things,” Jules continued. “They’re all on the internet, just like we are. And many of them are very good. And I don’t know how to distinguish what we’re doing from what they’re doing. We’re not really ‘better.’ And we don’t really have a unique sound.

“You can’t make a go of it on the internet alone. You have to perform. I can perform… but only the country/folk stuff. And that’s just not going to take us anywhere… because everybody does it. Our new sound is ‘techfolk’… it’s good, but it’s done in the studio… you can’t do it on stage. So you can’t perform. And if you can’t perform your stuff, you might as well give up because you’ll never get the ‘buzz’ you need to stand out.

“And there are so many things I just don’t know how to do… so much of this is marketing. I don’t know anything about marketing. And what can I market? You need something unique. We don’t have anything unique. We’re just trying to come up with good music… and that’s hard enough…

“I think I’m going to give up. It’s too hard. I’ll never be able to do it. Besides, all I really want in life is a house in the suburbs, a nice, blonde wife… and a job where I don’t have to work too hard.”

We had to pause and think. What to say to a young man who is just starting out… and who realises what he is up against?

Father-knows-best had this advice:

“Jules… look… you’ve got a long road ahead. This is no time to worry. You’re not supposed to know how things work… or how to get where you’re going. Life is a long hike. It is as if you were walking from Baltimore to Los Angeles. It doesn’t really matter which way you turn when you go out the front door. The important thing is just to keep walking. You’ll have plenty of time to correct your course.”

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner

Source: The Rally Rests on a Knife-Edge

But first, there’s a catch…

These “Trump Cards” aren’t traded very often. And you can’t find them on an exchange. That’s what makes them so lucrative. You see, it’s this lack of liquidity that makes these high-yield bonds, as they’re called, double and even triple overnight.

Once you get past the sometimes-frustrating volume issue, you’ll find many advantages high-yield bonds use to trump regular stocks.

First, there is the time element. You can hold a stock indefinitely, as long as the company stays in business. Bonds, however, mature at a certain date. They can even be called away. But unlike options, bonds use time to work in their favor. The closer to maturity date, the better. Time adds an extra benefit, because once it runs out, investors get paid.

Bonds are also higher on the importance scale for a company. Even if the unfathomable occurs and the issuing company liquidates, bondholders are paid first. Next come preferred stockholders and finally common stockholders.

The most important advantage bonds have over stocks is their guaranteed value. Stocks are bought and sold with a constant moving target. Each investor has his or her own target value. Bonds, however, have a face value. That face value, usually $1,000, is the price those holders will receive at maturity. This gives us a clear picture of what our investment will pay us. It can also give us a guaranteed double or triple.

Say you buy a corporate bond with a face value of $1,000 and a maturity date of August 2011. Instead of paying the full $1,000, you’ll oftentimes receive a hefty discount. Let’s say in this case, the bonds are trading at around $330. That’s a guaranteed triple as long as the company doesn’t go insolvent.

Here’s why the guarantee is so important. Even if the company does go belly up, every asset sold will be used to pay you. Common shareholders might receive a few dollars of whatever is left in the end. But you are paid first.

Don’t want to wait until 2011 to have your payday? No problem. Just trade it in early. As you can see, that’s an equally lucrative choice.

Instead of waiting until October 2027 for a 614% payday, investors on this bond could’ve cashed out today for a 5-month 186% gain. It’s easy enough to flip that gain into other fast moving high-yield bonds.

To get you started, here are two of the top traded bonds:

• Realogy Corp 10.5% Coupon Maturing Apr. 2014 (CUSIP: 75605EAT7)
• Clear Channel Communications 10.75% Coupon Maturing Aug. 2016 (CUSIP: 184502BB7)

Note: Be careful trading these. Corporate bonds can be extremely volatile.

The coupon rate is the original yield based on the $1,000 face value. This is also a large selling point for income investors as the yield becomes inflated with lower prices.

The CUSIP is the equivalent of a stock’s ticker symbol. Although, instead of using it to place orders on an exchange like stocks, the CUSIP is used for bond traders to quickly identify each particular issue.

To find your own high-yield bonds, you can check out any free bond screener such as Yahoo! Finance’s. Just enter the criteria you are looking for – like coupon rate, maturity date, and credit rating – and scan through the results until you find one you like.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

Source: Your Guaranteed Triple with the Stock Market ‘Trump Card’

In order to find our entries, let’s first look at what the market’s doing right now, and whether we’ve actually topped out. Here’s a glimpse at the daily index charts off the March 2009 lows:

The NASDAQ, Dow and S&P indexes have uptrends that are still intact. The green lines, the blue line and the 50-day moving average are your guides. As of this moment in time we see no top in the market.

That said, if we see a quick run sometime next week to a retest of the highs and then a pullback off of that retest, those developments will create a double top and I would then be more apt to want to call a short term top at that time.

Why does the presence of a double top cause us to be more likely to change our position on the market? Because the double top is one of the most common early warning alert system patterns telling you a “Change in Trend” may be near.

The Two Ways to Buy a Stock

So now that the indexes are pulling back, but remain in a clearly defined uptrend above their uptrend lines and 50-day moving averages, we want to focus on stocks that are in the same position and have simply pulled back off of their highs to those support levels. This is called trading in tandem with the market.

Now, there are two ways to buy stocks. The first way is to find a stock that has formed a base and buy it when it breaks into new highs above the base. This is called buying a traditional breakout. Here’s a look at a recent breakout:

As you can see from the chart, after breaking out, the stock quickly turned tail to retest what was resistance (now should be support), and actually closed under support or back in the base. If you had bought them with a stop loss, chances are after a few days of feeling good you were stopped out.

Now let’s look at the second way:

As you can see here, this issue broke out. But most breakouts consolidate their gains and retest the area that was once resistance. So rather than chase the stock, we patiently wait for it to come to us.

In this case, the pink line represents the stock’s pullback off of its highs back to what was once resistance -– and is now support. Our buy point is a break above the pink line.

A classic buy support and sell resistance trade. That’s a lot better than chasing a stock only to get stopped out as the stock retests support and then takes off without you.

So what does that mean for us today? It means that since the markets have pulled back to near short-term support, now is the time to be prepared to take advantage of these opportunities — opportunities to buy stocks in confirmed uptrends at a risk-adverse place.

Sincerely,
David Grandey

Source: Buying Stocks Safely Using Alternative Entry Points

…how does it all work?

We’re doing some serious thinking this week. What is it that actually causes a depression? A stock market collapse? Or too much debt? How come government can appear to cure the problem sometimes – 2001-2007 – but not other times? How come the Japanese were not able to increase consumer prices? Even now… Japan’s inflation rate is negative. And how come, despite the most massive effort at monetary inflation ever undertaken, the US bond market still forecasts an inflation rate of less than 2%?

An interview with Richard Koo, author of ‘The Balance Sheet Recession,’ and a new book by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart are helping us understand what it going on. More to come…

In the meantime, the Dow went down 42 points on Friday. Gold dropped $7. Still no sign of the Chinese coming to the rescue in the gold market.

“Global rally shows signs of running out of steam,” says the Financial Times.

Reuters says the job data will “test the rally.” The New York Times says the ratio between job seekers and jobs available has never been worse.

The Wall Street Journal, on the other hand, tells us that greater than expected profits will support the rally. So far, the increase in stock prices has not come from increased earnings. It’s come from increased P/Es… based on the hope of higher earnings. In terms of forecast earnings, the Dow is selling at a P/E ratio of 27. But in terms of actual, reported earnings… the ratio is 180.

A friend made the mistake of asking us what to expect from the economy. We said it would go do down.

“You mean, you expect a W-shaped recovery,” he said… “a double-dip recession?”

“No… we expect no recovery at all. It’s a W without the last stroke… ”

Of course, we were exaggerating. But not much. We do not think that the economy of the Bubble Era can ever be revived. It will never recover; because it is dead.

But that doesn’t mean we will march backward forever. The economy may lose 10% of GDP… maybe 20%. But we do not expect to be slithering in the mud of the Middle Ages, with each man planting his own wheat and brewing his own beer. No, not at all. It only means that the depression must continue until it comes to an end.

“But when will it come to an end?” you ask.

“When it is over.”

A depression ends when it has done its work. It must correct mistakes. It must punish errors. It must destroy the bubble economy… and the mindset of the Bubble Era. Only then can new real, sustainable growth begin again.

So far, in 2009, 95 banks have gone broke. How many more need to go broke before the depression is over? We don’t know. This is where is gets complicated. Because the feds are determined to keep us from finding out!

Here’s how it works. The Fed lends the bankers money. Then, the bankers turn around and lend it back to the feds. The banks are happy; they’re making money on a risk-free trade. The regulators are happy; what could be safer in a bank’s vault than US Treasury bonds? Investors are happy; it looks like the financial sector is making money again. And the feds are happy; they’re able to finance their deficits.

Who’s not happy? So far, so good. But hold on…

“This is not a sustainable recovery,” says fund manager Crispin Odey in the Financial Times.

What a spoilsport! You mean, you can’t build a lasting recovery on debt and shell-game finance?

Nope. Apparently not. Just look at what has happened to the auto industry. The feds borrowed money to help Americans pimp up their rides. And this Thursday, when September sales figures come out, we find out how sustainable that boost was. Many Americans got new wheels. But now they don’t need new wheels. And now the feds are out of the auto-incentive business. So now we get to see what happens next.

“Oh Daddy, I felt so sorry for Annabel… ”

Maria was on the phone. She was telling about one of her friends… and money worries…

“She was sitting on the couch. And all of a sudden she burst into tears. She was crying because she is out of money…

“Her car broke down and she doesn’t have the money to get it fixed. And she had to go and have some medical work done. She just doesn’t have any money left…

“And she’s already working all she possibly can. She works with me at the studio. And she picks up bartending jobs on the side. She works all day… and then works at night too. But I think it is getting to her. She just can’t go on…

“I asked her if her folks could help her out. But she said that her father lost his job in the recession… and they don’t have any money to lend her.

“Honestly, I felt so lucky to have you behind me. I don’t know what I would do if I didn’t have the family supporting me. I guess I just wouldn’t be able to keep going either. I’d have to give up the idea of being an actress because it’s almost impossible to support yourself and still go to all the castings and try-outs.”

Elizabeth added a comment:

“I was talking to [a French friend]. He thinks it is typically American to expect each generation to make it on its own. Americans think they should put aside enough money to pay their retirements, and that’s all. They don’t worry about their children. They think the children should take care of themselves. Anyway, that’s what he thinks Americans think… and he’s probably mostly right about it.

“The French attitude is much different. They keep the children closer… and help them more. He’s got five children and he wants to be able to leave them something. He’s just begun a new business venture, because he says he wasn’t able to earn enough in his job.

“He makes a good point: when you have to start from nothing, you just won’t get as far. You know, it’s a bit like what Newton said. He was able to make spectacular progress because, as he put it, he could ‘stand on the shoulders of giants.’ But that’s true for everything. One generation stands on the work of the one that came before it. And if there is nothing to stand on… they have to start from scratch. They are able to do more… if they have a firm foundation to stand on. And there are somethings they couldn’t do at all without it. Maria, for example, would be forced to get a more serious job, if we weren’t helping her with her bills while she’s getting established. And Jules, too. He wants a career in music. But if he couldn’t count on us to help him, he’d probably have to do something that pays better now.

“There’s a lot to be said for the American can-do emphasis on self-reliance. But there’s something to be said for the French attitude too. The ideal is to give your children the spirit of self-reliance and the confidence that comes from making it on their own… but also to give them something to work with… so they don’t have to start at the very bottom.”

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner

Source: Correcting Mistakes and Punishing Errors

Sell stops ensure that your capital is protected and your profits don’t slip through your fingers.

However, one subscriber took me to task, saying that a trailing stop guarantees you won’t “sell at the top.”

Quite true.

However, “selling at the top” and its corollary, “buying at the bottom,” are not realistic investment goals. Here’s why…

The Danger of Selling High and Buying Low

For one thing, you never know the top or the bottom until you’re looking in the rear view mirror. And given enough time, all-time highs and lows are usually exceeded.

For example, you may sell a stock at its 52-week high – not a good idea since you should always let your winners run – and find that it goes on to double or triple from there. Likewise, if you buy at the all-time low, the stock may head still lower (after all, that’s the direction it’s heading).

Our trailing stop policy works, in part, because it accepts the uncertainty that is an inevitable part of equity investing. Sure, you may get lucky and buy at the bottom or sell at the top from time to time. But hoping to “get lucky” isn’t much of an investment strategy.

And there’s yet another iron-clad reason to use trailing stops…

How Trailing Stops Can Maximize Your Gains & Mitigate Your Losses

It’s a little-known but depressing fact that the vast majority of individual stocks post negative returns over the long run.

This may come as a shock to those who’ve been told that equities are the very best long-term investment.

• But research by the investment management firm, Dimensional Fund Advisors, found that form 1980 to 2008, the top-performing 25% of stocks was responsible for 100% of the gains in the broad market.
• The bottom 75% of stocks collectively generated annual losses of 2% over the past 29 years.

It’s pretty sobering to realize you were three times as likely to own losing stocks as winners.

However, this data makes the fundamental assumption that you actually held all these stocks over the entire period.

Many stocks make spectacular runs before crashing and burning. By using a trailing stop, you could have participated in an awful lot of upside without sticking around for the Battle of Little Big Horn.

Likewise, even if you picked a stock that went south immediately, a trailing stop would have kept your losses small and acceptable.

Don’t Argue With the Market… Use Trailing Stops Instead

The bottom line is this: Anyone can plunk for a few shares. Getting out at the right time is the true art of investing.

The key is to make sure you’re cutting your losses and letting your profits run.

Emotions like fear and greed (and hope) can prevent that. But trailing stops enforce a discipline that takes the emotion – and the second-guessing – out of the investment process.

Understand that market prices reflect facts about a company better than opinions. So don’t argue with the market.

When you buy a stock, enter a trailing stop below it to protect your principal. And as the stock rises, keep raising the stop to protect your profits.

This is the best way for you to minimize your losses and maximize your gains – even if some of the stocks you own are on their way to Waterloo.

Good investing,

Alex Green

Source: Investing Without Trailing Stops: Here’s Why 75% of Stocks Are a Sucker’s Bet

With the small-cap research tool I’m about to show you, you’re well on your way to seeing how the market moves ahead of the herd.

Here’s everything you need to know…

A while back, I wrote to you about our Small-Cap Recovery Index. The index is composed of fundamental data from 100 small-cap stocks, as well as economic factors like unemployment and personal savings rate.

It’s designed to give us a glimpse at signs of recovery for the stock market.

While the market has rebounded in a big way since it bottomed in March, many investors are concerned that stock prices are already getting out of whack. But we’ve designed the Small-Cap Recovery Index to go beyond share prices.

Unlike major indexes — like the S&P 500 or small-cap Russell 2000 — ours isn’t a typical stock index. While hundreds of stocks are included in the index, stock prices actually have a relatively small effect on its daily movement. The majority of the index is based on the latest available fundamental performance.

But while gauging how “healthy” the market is can be very valuable, the Small-Cap Recovery Index provides us with considerably more data. In fact, as we continue to watch the index, we hope to use the information it provides to not only peg where the broad market is headed, but which industries hold the keys to growth.

We can accomplish this thanks to the predictive power of small-cap stocks. You see, historically, penny stocks lead the stock market out of recession. “From 1943–2007, according to one analyst, small companies outperformed large companies by more than 50 percentage points in the three years following a recession, including the one following 2001,” explained Ken Kurson in an article published on Esquire.com a few months back.

By monitoring how small caps perform fundamentally and technically, we can essentially predict where more major indexes — the S&P 500, for instance — are headed.

Now, 12 weeks into collecting and analyzing our data, we’ve already caught some indications that the index is doing its job. More on that in a bit…

A Look at the Small-Cap Market

The chart above shows the Small-Cap Recovery Index for the last 12 weeks. The index, which is calculated daily after the market close, is based on a 100 scale — its current value of 107.4 means that the Small-Cap Recovery Index has gained 7.4% since we began tracking it.

While a high number for the S&P 500, which just measures share prices, could suggest that stocks are overvalued, when it comes to the Small-Cap Recovery Index, bigger is definitely better. That’s because a higher number means that the small caps that make up our index are performing well for investors and — more importantly in this environment — performing well from a financial and economic perspective.

In the past couple of months, the index has seen its value increase materially, which is a very good thing. But while the SCRI’s value gives us a good idea of how small caps are performing, it doesn’t do a very good job of actually predicting where the markets will move next. That’s where the oscillator comes in…

The Small-Cap Recovery Index Oscillator

The Small-Cap Recovery Index Oscillator, which is based on the index itself, measures the divergence between the performance of the Small-Cap Recovery Index and the S&P 500.

While that sounds pretty complicated, it’s actually a very simple concept. The rationale is that the S&P 500, which is a pretty good indicator of the market itself, shouldn’t move significantly more or less than our Small-Cap Recovery Index. And because fundamental data that move ahead of the market — like sales and unemployment — are factored into our index, our index should set the direction of market movements first.

When things are stable, the oscillator should sit around 0 — meaning that there isn’t a major difference between our index and the S&P. But when it moves very high or low, it sends a signal that the S&P, which doesn’t have fundamental economic data to keep it grounded, should move back in a direction to push the oscillator back down.

We’ve actually come up with a math-based methodology to place bets on the market using the data that the oscillator spits out.

And while the specifics are too rigorous to detail here, we’ve determined that if you had used those rules to invest in the ProShares Ultra S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SSO) or the ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (NYSEArca: SDS), depending on the buy or sell signal, you would have made 36.03% in just six weeks.

That’s an annualized gain of 312.26%!

And right now, with the oscillator (the blue line in the graph below) high, it suggests that the market’s buying frenzy is coming to an end. That’s not to say that the oscillator can’t be wrong — we’re still in the early stages of collecting data and testing its accuracy.

So what’s the SCRI Oscillator telling us right now?

While it’s good that the SCRI has increased in the last 12 weeks, a quick look at the oscillator shows us that the S&P 500 has increased much more quickly — that’s actually a bad thing for the market because it means that investors have overvalued the S&P against the fundamentals of the market.

And already, we’re seeing the S&P 500 start to decline to fall back in line with the Small-Cap Recovery Index. Unless big stocks improve their fundamentals enough to match the small-caps, it’s time to expect a tumble in the S&P back to SCRI levels. We still have considerable data to collect before we begin to use SCRI data in our stock picking methodology, but right now, it’s clear that the index could soon become a very powerful tool in our investment arsenal.

Cheers,
Jonas Elmerraji

Source: The Only Tool You Need to Predict the Market’s Moves

The price of gold today, adjusted for inflation, is about where it was 26 years ago. After peaking out at nearly $2,000 (again, in 2009 dollars), in 1980, the price fell to the $1,000 level (in today’s money) in 1983.

We were gold bulls back then. And we were idiots. It was the end of the gold bull cycle, not the beginning. The gold price fell for the next 17 years.

Some people draw the wrong lesson from this experience – that gold is always a bad place for your money.

Today’s Financial Times:

“In spite of low interest rates, that make owning gold cheap, the opportunity cost of owning it is still unattractive in the long run. Smarter ways to anticipate inflation include bricks and mortar, mineral rights or even equities, all with vastly superior historical returns.”

But we would prefer to look at it a little differently. Gold is not always a bad place for your money; and we are not always idiotic.

What were the returns from stocks over the last 10 years? The Dow has lost about 15% in nominal terms. In real, inflation adjusted terms, it is probably down nearly 40%. Meanwhile, gold has nearly quadrupled.

Was it smart to buy stocks or bricks and mortar during the ‘70s? Not at all. Stocks bounced around, but they were no higher at the end of the decade than they were at its beginning. Meanwhile, high inflation rates took a big toll on real values. Stock market investors lost 75% of their money – maybe more. As for those who bought bricks and mortar, they lost too – but it’s hard to say how much.

And meanwhile, gold went from $41 an ounce to over $800.

Which would you prefer?

As you can see, dear reader, timing is everything. There are times to be long gold. And there are times not to be.

For thousands of years gold has been the money of last resort. It is the money you can trust. They can’t make more of it. They can’t counterfeit it. They can’t put extra zeros on it and pretend it is worth more.

But it is most useful when other money goes bad. Inflation rates in the US during the ‘70s went over 10%. Clearly, gold was a better thing to own to protect your wealth than dollars. You could have bought an ounce of it (outside the US…it was still illegal for private citizens to hold gold in America) for, say, $45 in the early ‘70s. By 1982, you could have used that single ounce of gold to buy up the entire list of Dow stocks. Gold and the Dow traded at a ratio of only one to one that year. Then, if you’d held onto those stocks you could have sold them in 2006 for $14,000.

Not bad, huh? Two transactions. Forty-five bucks to $14,000. Invest $100,000 and you would have ended up with $30 million.

But let’s get back to where we are now. Still in a bull market in gold…or at the end of one? Are we idiots for holding it now…or idiots for not buying more?

As you know, we’ve begun a new project: the Bonner & Partners Family Office. It’s our own family office that we’ve opened up to a few non-family members. But just as soon as the non-family members came in the door they started asking questions. Specifically, they wondered why…after all the preaching we’ve done about buying gold…we don’t have more of it in the family portfolio.

One our new partners wrote a very shrewd comment. We’ll pass along a little of what he had to say, but first, some context. The feds are desperate to restart the economy. The only way they can imagine is by increasing the money supply…and inducing people to spend money. They want inflation, no doubt about it. And they’ll get it; no doubt about that either.

The question is when. Our view is that they’ll get more than they expect, but later than they want it. We’re looking for another crack in stocks…followed by more fear and loathing in the economy. This will have two major effects. First, investors will turn to the familiar dollar for safety. Second, everyone will hoard money…speculation will cease…and prices will fall – including the price of gold. Our first writer disagrees:

“One mistake [your editor] might be making is his belief that we are already in another Great Depression.  We probably will be in a depression or some other form of economic calamity, but not yet.  Every Depression (or monetary contraction) in history has followed a similar pattern – expansionary monetary policy followed by a contraction of the money supply….  While we have experienced a huge monetary expansion/easy money in the 90’s, we have not yet experienced a real monetary contraction (which is a scary thought).  Instead, the central planners did the opposite and doubled the monetary base (keep the addict happy with more heroin).  These extra paper dollars have to go somewhere, and we are seeing the results in higher prices for stocks, oil, copper, sugar, gold, so far. ..

Well, yes…as long as the economy seems to be on the mend. Investors’ “appetite for risk” improves. They want to speculate on the recovery. But then, when the recovery proves an illusion…they’re going to run for cover.

Then, another new partner came to help us roll our stone.

“Bill is correct, not from money supply & credit data, but from ‘black swan’ type events such as: how deflationary forces will play out for lenders and holders of mortgaged backed bonds both commercial & residential, in a disruptive resetting of interest rates for Option ARM’s, ALT-A’s and various other prime borrowers in the next 6-12 months… Will we witness another series of major bank failures from this next round of resetting? And if so, how disruptive, in a deflationary sense, will this be?”

Either way, the result is the same. Market events – such as another big break in the banking sector – could bring a deflationary collapse. If not, the Fed itself may have to step in to protect the dollar. In either case, gold is not likely to reach its final, bubble phase until this contraction is over.

In the meantime, our advice remains unchanged: buy it on dips.

We continue to laugh at recovery sightings. Yesterday, for example, the Fed reported to the nation that a recovery was underway. But even the Fed couldn’t ignore the fact that consumers aren’t spending money the way they used to. The New York Times comments:

“The prolonged slump in consumer spending has been one of the most serious points of worry for economists, and the Fed’s warning about it deflated some of the market’s optimism. About 70 percent of the economy depends on spending by consumers.”

The other sticky wicket in this game is unemployment. Jobless ranks are swelling like a floating corpse. But the jobless numbers don’t tell the whole story. There are 34 million Americans who live on food stamps. One out of every nine people depends on the government for his daily bread. The Financial Times fills in the details:

“Less attention has been paid to those still in the workforce, whose incomes are also being squeezed. The average working week is now about 33 hours, the lowest on record, while the number forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time work has risen more than 50 per cent in the past year to a record 8.8m. Wages and benefits have decelerated. “The food stamp data suggest that “the labour market problems are more significant than you would expect, given just the unemployment rate”, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “For me it suggests the consumer is not going to rebound or contribute to economic growth for the next year, as the consumer would in a traditional economic recovery.” “Consumer spending has traditionally been the engine of the US economy, making up about two thirds of GDP. Economists fear that people may be unwilling to resume that role. “Food stamps are distributed once a month on electronic cards that can be spent at many grocery stores. The $787bn stimulus bill added about $80 (€55, £50) to a family’s monthly allowance, which now stands at an average $290.

*** Nothing very original about keeping the masses fed with government food. The Romans figured it out 2,000 years ago. You have to distract the mob with pane et circenses (bread and circuses). Otherwise, they vote you out of office…or burn down the capitol.

“Everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses,” wrote Juvenal.

Source: Are We “Idiots” for Buying Gold?