Some of Wall Street’s most prominent bears are turning bullish right now. But that doesn’t mean that your small-cap portfolio is safe. Here’s why these brilliant minds think that we’re back on the path to recovery — and why they’re wrong.

Last week, Vickers Weekly Insider Report noted that corporate insiders are dumping shares like there’s no tomorrow. Insiders sold 6.31 shares for every share they bought. Contrast that with the seemingly brilliant move insiders made at the market low in March, buying three shares for every share they sold. Some analysts are saying there is only one interpretation to this recent turn in insider activity: The market is due for a spill. But not so fast…

Oil traded around $66 a barrel on Monday, steadying after an earlier decline which extended last week’s 8.4 percent slide, as the U.S. dollar lost ground and stock markets moved higher.

Now the summer days are dwindling down to a precious few. This morning, it is overcast and chilly here in central France. The leaves on the aspen and linden trees have turned yellow already; whenever the wind blows, they flutter to the ground as if they were trying to get away from something.

Where are we now? Still in the Twilight Zone economy as far as we’re concerned. US stocks ended strongly on Friday. And they’re set to rise again today if Europe’s strong morning performance is anything to go by. Commodities are up too. Nymex crude oil futures are at $74.24 a barrel at writing. Gold is trading at $953.50 an ounce – not far off Friday’s one-week high.

Over the past five months, world stock markets have put on a historic rally.

Gold rose on Thursday as the dollar fell versus a basket of currencies, with rebounding stock markets and U.S. jobless figures showing a decline in continuing claims boosting appetite for assets seen as higher risk.

The dollar was slightly higher on Monday, supported as investors shied away from taking new positions before key U.S. jobs data due this week, while gains were kept in check as rising stocks stoked slight demand for risk.

I bet you don’t own enough gold. Having physical gold in your possession is always a good idea in times of economic turmoil – there is no “uncertainty hedge” like it.

Oil dropped more than 2 percent to below $68 a barrel on Monday as a stronger dollar and weaker European equities outweighed attacks on the oil industry in top African exporter Nigeria.