If you’re just joining us, we’re at the Renaissance Vinoy in St. Petersburg, Florida. We’re enjoying the sunny weather, the hospitality, and a small fleet of high performance cigar racing boats in the bay. Their crews have been all over the place in the last day or so.

And if you’ve been “tuning in” for the last few days, you know that I’ve been all over the place in the last few days as well. I’m your “eyes and ears” during our 11^th Annual meeting.

And today is no different. It’s why I’m listening to Louis Basenese break down our current situation, and what we can do about it…

Taking a Look Back on the Crash

In one of the best explanations I’ve heard so far, Louis Basenese broke down the crash of 2008, and why it broke so many “rules.” It’s important to understand because traditional “safe havens” surprised so many investors by not performing as expected, shaking confidence.

There were other things in play as well. Regulations like the ‘uptick rule’ changed. And it was made worse by the collapse of some key Wall Street institutions that ran segments of the credit market. Mortgage assets, which numerous institutions had on their books, took a nosedive as reckless risk evaluation collided with collapsing home values.

It was a confluence of events few could have predicted.

Louis, or ‘Lou’ as friends know him, made sense of these events before his talk turned to some of the companies that are on his radar.

On of them is Stonemor Partners L P (Nasdaq: STON). This company makes caskets and owns cemeteries. Stonemor also sells burial plots to people and has entered the pet cemetery market where the margins are much more significant.

And while this “recession-proof” business has cash and a steady demand – it’s trading at just over $10 a share – Lou cautioned against buying right now. Their quarterly report comes out on March 31. Wait and see how the financials look and if they maintain their dividend payment.

Market Threats And Offshore Opportunities

Thomas Fischer, Sr. Vice President of Jyske Global Asset Management is from Denmark – you know the country with the most wicked, killer, pastries on the planet. He started in foreign exchange as a trader for 22 years. He presented some valuable advice for “newbies” on Forex, cautioning that while currency trading is fun – you have to be careful on a trading platform that gives you 100:1 leverage (standard contract) or more.

He’s seen time and time again that people trading with $5,000 will make 2 or 3 trades that are good. Then they get overconfident and lose it all.

Thomas recommends starting in the EUR:USD, saying that 35% of all trades are in this currency.  This makes it the most liquid. He’s bearish on the Euro, because he believes the next thing to blow up is eastern Europe.

Like Alex Green he’s bullish on the stock market for the long term. He explains that cash holdings are at 1990 highs here in the US …that’s $8.85 trillion, earning less than 1%! That’s a ton of money waiting to flood into the market.

Thomas recommended some intriguing opportunities including a EUR bond BBB yielding 15%. Get the full details on his currency trading recommendations, as well as his European perspective on transferring your trading accounts offshore, here.

Thomas Fisher put it this way, ”The currency market doesn’t correlate with stock or bond markets. You can always find a currency that you can own outright that will outperform another currency. If you pick your currencies wisely.”

And as our friends from Everbank pointed out, for the beginning investor, there is plenty of good, easily accessible research out there on the fundamentals that can give us an idea of the potential direction and current yields for currencies. For example, here.

Another Great Suggestion

We’ve heard from dozens of experts and specialists over the past few days. In addition to their personal viewpoints and opinions on how to prosper in good times and bad, we’ve also been getting some great tips on asset protection.

One, from Byron King at Outstanding Investments, was about storing your assets in bank lock-boxes…

If you own gold, make sure you get an account co-signer at the bank for any lock-box. If you die and don’t have a co-signer, the bank will not open it without a revenue service representative present. It’s an easy way to keep the IRS from hassling your grieving family members.

If your interesting in getting the full conference audio files, and all of the little tips that we’ve heard, go here.

Natural Resource Prospecting

Rick Rule is always a popular speaker at our conferences, and I’m happy to say he doesn’t disappoint. In this session he talked about the risks and rewards involved with resource exploration.

I was surprised to learn that only 1 of 5,000 prospects becomes a mine. This is why exploration can be so costly. However, the upside potential can be huge. Returns on successful efforts are often as high as $1,000 in profit for every $1.00 invested.

According to Rick, the only statistically rational way of to speculate in mineral exploration is to develop a portfolio of exploration stocks called “prospect generators“.

Rick explains is better on the recording, but prospect generators are corporate assemblages of very high quality explorations and entrepreneurs. They employ specialized technical or commercial skills to generate exploration concepts. Rick emphasizes, “It’s important to recognize that exploration is a knowledge business like research & development in technology.“

He added that the best due diligence is done by mining companies – not by investors or brokerage firms who often have a conflict of interest in their recommendations.

Rick also talked about three companies he’s personally invested in.

Rick Rule is an expert on natural resource investing, and one of the most knowledgeable “prospectors” I know. He won’t give you a stock suggestion if he wouldn’t personally put money in it. The audio files will have more on the three he likes.

Questions Answered

Throughout the conference I’m often approached with questions on a session or two. One question in particular stuck out today.

Oxford Club Chairman Circle Member Harry J. comes up to me as I’m pouring a cup of tea.  He remarks, “What do I do if I’ve already got a million dollar stock portfolio?“  I looked at him and replied…”Well, you celebrate!“

Turns out Harry used the principles and portfolios we recommend in the Oxford Club…he showed me the numbers to prove it. I think the best thing he can do is to educate others…pass on the wealth of knowledge, as they say. That’s what we’re trying to do with our new Investment U course, “How to Create Your $1,000,000 Portfolio From Scratch.”

It teaches you, your kids, and your grandkids the nuts and bolts of the investment approach we use at the Oxford Club. It will allow you to do exactly what Harry did.

We’ll have more on that soon. In the meantime, I’m rushing back into another session now. Stay tuned for our closing day’s wrap-ups and panel discussions on Monday.

Source: “Looking Back, So We Can Move Forward”

The people of the United States of America prayed for a political messiah. Now that he has stepped forth, we are left to wonder, what next?

Politics is not really our beat here at the Rude Awakening, so we won’t be offering up any four-legged sacrifices for the promise of financial salvation. In the harsh light of economic reality, miracles are hard to come by, even for those claiming to posses the kind of optimistic foresight that defies rational explanation.

A cursory glance toward the economic horizon reveals some perilous obstacles ahead. As we walk through the valley of 5-year market lows, the shadow of the death of consumer spending looms particularly large. American consumers, upon the backs of whom almost two-thirds of the world’s largest economy rests, cut spending by an annualized 3.1% for the third quarter. For perspective, that marks the first quarterly decline since 1991, as well as the largest quarterly decline in 28 years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

Meanwhile, prices of goods and services purchased by US residents jumped 4.8%. That’s on top of a 4.2% increase in the second quarter. Even excluding food and energy, prices were still up by 3.1% in Q3.

As the consumer-driven economy grips the emergency brake and higher prices put the squeeze on employers, jobless rates continue to skyrocket. The Department of Labor is expected to announce the loss of 200,000 jobs for the month of October when it meets on Friday. That would drive unemployment to 6.3%, up 0.2% from September.

Shrugging off all these annoying statistics, however, the market continue to mount a herculean rally. After posting its worst month since 1987, the Dow surged an impressive 300 points Tuesday in anticipation of Obama’s victory, topping off double-digit gains for indexes across the board last week.

Could we be witnessing a miracle in the making here? Is it possible that a new tablet of financial commandments might render the age-old saws of saving and producing nothing more than outdated or even, dare we say, profane?

We wouldn’t dare offend any divine and future superintendent of the financial universe by asserting otherwise…but we reserve the right to remain unconvinced.

In the absence of proof that what goes up need not come down, we will continue to seek our financial guidance from within the “boring” confines of reality. And so, we turn to the inimitable Rude Readership for the results of our latest Group Research Project.

A couple of weeks ago, we asked readers to submit their favorite “chicken longs.” Put simply, we wanted to know what stocks readers would like to have in their portfolio should the heavens open up and curse the earth with a great financial flood. Such stocks might derive their buoyancy by paying a large dividend, enjoying a competitive position in a relatively “high ground” sector or through some other means of protection.

We have no clue as to whether the President Elect will perpetuate the current state of fiscal delusion or merely usher in a winter of slightly milder discontent…but it is probably best to be prepared for either scenario.

Reader “Bradbarb69″ kicks off our newest Rude Awakening Group Research Project with the following cheerful suggestion:

“I like prison stocks. There will never be a shortage of lawbreakers at any level, and governments must maintain prisons for the public good. As crime rises (as it inevitably will) these stocks will be good holdings. I also like [the cemetery operator] Stonemore Partners L.P. (NASDAQ:STON) for its high dividend and for the fact people will always die no matter what the economy does. Personal protection stocks are also on my list of “buy at the right price.” I’m thinking in particular of Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) and Taser International (NASDAQ:TASR).

[Editor's Note: Although Bradbarb69 did not provide any specific names in the prison sector, a couple that come to mind are Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) and Corrections Corp. of America (NYSE:CXW).]”

Reader Tom Winstanley recommends Weir Group, a Scottish company that trades in the U.S. over-the-counter market under the symbol, (PINK:WEIGF).

“This company makes boring old pumps,” Tom explains. “Energy and Water are two areas that simply will not wait upon the recovery of the world economy. Come hell or high water, governments know that if they cannot keep the lights on, provide as much fresh water as their people are used to having available and treat waste water to high standards, then they will be more trouble than they can handle. Pumps might be boring but try getting by without them – whatever the state of the economy!” [Editor's Note: Weir trades for less than eight times estimated earnings and yields 4%].

Reader Susan Vander Voet likes the Brazilian oil giant, Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE:PBR), also known as Petrobras. The stock was trading around $21 when Susan submitted her email to us. Today, the stock is around $30.

“I’ve been watching this company for about a year,” Susan writes, “and the reasons for my recommendation are:

1. Active and with interests in several Latin American countries (Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Peru) in exploration, production, distribution and retail;
2. Huge offshore resources discovered in Santos Basin;
3. Active in several African countries (Angola, Tanzania);
4. Stock is trading well below the moving average, which has trended upward for 5 years;
5. As oil prices are projected to recover (in 2009), I see this stock at least doubling its current value ($21).”

Reader David Myrhre identifies Harvest energy Trust (NYSE:HTE), a Canadian investment trust, as his “current fave.” The stock, which was trading below $8.00 when David submitted his email to us, is now north of $11. But even at the current quote, the stock is well below the $18 price tag it fetched in September. What’s more the indicated yield on the stocks is a whopping 27%.

“I’ve heard worries that the dividends will go down because oil prices have gone down,” David explains “But these oil producers sell on annual and multiyear contracts.  Dividends didn’t go up when spot oil prices spiked and they won’t go down just because spot prices did.”

Elsewhere in the Canadian investment trust sector, reader Greg McLean highlights Peyto Energy Trust (PINK:PEYUF), a stock that yields about 14%. Greg also likes Hanfeng Evergreen, “HF” on the Toronto Stock Exchange. “Hanfeng is a small Canadian company that makes slow release rice fertilizer in China,” explains Mr. McLean. “Hanfeng has decent earnings and cash, little debt and is trading close to book. I feel confident betting China will continue to grow rice.”

Another high-yield energy stock is Atlas Pipeline (NYSE:APL), which is a stock that reader Don Gish favors. “My favorite bear market stock is Atlas Pipeline (APL),” Gish writes. “The sudden drop of the energy market and other market sell-off factors have driven APL unrealistically down.  [At the current quote, the stock yields about 20%].  I believe APL’s focus on natural gas pipelines with no exploration/development costs and long term contracts has created an excellent long term dividend with significant potential for future stock price upside.  I love this position, so I have to resist my desire to buy more.”

Lastly, reader Scott Lovinghood writes: “I have a suggestion for a chicken long: Blackrock Municipal Income Closed End Fund (NYSE:BKF).  It is primarily invested in tax free municipal bonds.  At current prices the yield is just a hair under 8% TAX FREE!!  The fund covers many different states and markets.  California is the largest concentration at only 11% of the fund.  The majority are longer dated bonds, so unless municipals are totally wiped out, the monthly pay outs should continue.  The shares were hammered recently due to the credit freeze. The stock’s NAV is $10.15.  But the stock is only $9.20…Not a bad deal.”

And so concludes Part I of our newest Rude Awakening Group Research project.

Source: Chicken Longs