Is the crisis really over? Commercial paper spreads have come down dramatically. Libor rates are (hmm – almost) back to normal. Even high yield spreads are narrowing.

From 1982 until the first half of 2007, global bank stocks led the secular long-term bull market in company profits. Long-term interest rates plunged from over 21% in 1981 to a low of just 3.5% in 2004. As a result, earnings at the majority of banks were literally stupendous, including huge dividend increases and massive shareholder buybacks.