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		<title>The U.S. Economy’s Uncertainty Brings Opportunity for Investors in the Months to Come</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-us-economy%e2%80%99s-uncertainty-brings-opportunity-for-investors-in-the-months-to-come/2943</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2008 21:38:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jennifer Yousfi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Bric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BSC]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>With a wheezing economy that’s struggling with housing and credit problems &#8211; as well as a weak dollar &#8211; it’s clear the United States won’t be in the investment spotlight this year.</p>
<p>But don’t despair. Because a trend that has long been talked about &#8211; economic decoupling &#8211; is finally starting to manifest itself as other world economies, particularly the so-called “BRIC” markets of Brazil, Russia, China and India, have continued to grow even as the U.S. economy has slowed. That means profit opportunities abound for U.S. investors, despite myriad messes on the home front that include a collapsed housing market, a mortgage crisis that turned into a five-alarm credit conflagration, and a plunging greenback that seems to have left its&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With a wheezing economy that’s struggling with housing and credit problems &#8211; as well as a weak dollar &#8211; it’s clear the United States won’t be in the investment spotlight this year.</p>
<p>But don’t despair. Because a trend that has long been talked about &#8211; economic decoupling &#8211; is finally starting to manifest itself as other world economies, particularly the so-called “BRIC” markets of Brazil, Russia, China and India, have continued to grow even as the U.S. economy has slowed. That means profit opportunities abound for U.S. investors, despite myriad messes on the home front that include a collapsed housing market, a mortgage crisis that turned into a five-alarm credit conflagration, and a plunging greenback that seems to have left its parachute on the airplane that it jumped from.</p>
<p>Some of the profit pathways to  play:</p>
<ul>
<li>Investors can eschew the U.S. market completely,  and pursue profits abroad.</li>
<li>They can latch onto the U.S.-based members of the “Global Titans” club, companies with their headquarters in America that derive a hefty chunk of their profits from overseas markets.</li>
<li>Or investors can ferret out U.S. investments that are either immune to some of this country’s current economic afflictions, or that are problem-plagued now, but a good bet for a turnaround later.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>A Year to Forget?</strong></p>
<p>Like a Dickens’ novel, 2007 was a definite “Best of Times/Worst of Times” combination for the U.S. economy. Volatility and crisis were the watchwords for much of the year. After key stock indices reached record highs in the middle of the year, the explosive emergence of the subprime mortgage debacle and related credit crunch pushed share prices into a nosedive that steepened as the year progressed.</p>
<p>With a 0.6% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2007 and a first quarter that’s supposed to be flat at best, it’s clear that we’re not out of the woods, yet.  Many fear that 2008 will find the United States in a recession.  Other investors believe we have already experienced the first elements of a recessionary contraction.</p>
<p>“If I had to be bold, I’d say we  began a recession in December,&#8221; Bill Gross, manager of the PIMCO Total  Return Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3APTTAX">PTTAX</a>), told the <strong><em>Financial  Times</em></strong> in a recent interview.</p>
<h3>The  Homeowner Blues</h3>
<p>As 2007 progressed, many Americans experienced a growing despair as they watched their largest asset &#8211; the family home &#8211; experience a significant value decline. The United States is experiencing its worst housing recession in more than 15 years. And that domicile downturn is far from over. Consumers are being forced to watch as the housing slump siphons off the equity they’ve built up, even as it shaves the market value of their homes. Consumers with marginal credit who’d signed up for adjustable-rate loans have seen their mortgage rates “reset,” and then had to watch as their monthly mortgage payment ballooned to the point that they <a href="http://cta.visionlp.com/pdf/gen/mortgageresets.pdf">could no longer afford those  payments</a>.</p>
<p>For many, unfortunately, refinancing hasn’t been an option. The vanishing homeowners’ equity made such deals unfavorable to lenders. And with the burgeoning credit crisis that quickly became global in nature, banks and mortgage firms have slashed the available amount of refinancing loans that homeowners needed to escape their soaring mortgage payments.</p>
<p>Soon, the banks that had made the questionable calls on subprime loans were in trouble, too. With the housing market cooling, the homeowners who couldn’t refinance also discovered that they couldn’t sell. Homeowner defaults &#8211; loans that are 30 days or more past due &#8211; soared and started a firestorm that has swept through the global financial-services sector, singing such stalwarts as Citigroup Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c&amp;hl=en">C</a>), <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/12/11/fanniemae/">Fannie Mae</a> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFNM">FNM</a>), UBS AG (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AUBS">UBS</a>), and others.</p>
<p>&#8220;It will take most of the year to work out of the housing slowdown. Currently, the inventory of unsold homes is at an eight to nine-month level. We have to get this down to a more normal level of four to five months. In order to get to this level, housing starts will remain low,&#8221; Dr. Robert Sweet, an economist at MTB Investment Advisors, the investment-advisory subsidiary of M&amp;T Bank Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mtb">MTB</a>), said in an interview with <strong><em>Money  Morning.</em></strong></p>
<p>And we might be getting closer to the bottom. In fact, existing home sales rose in February, the first such increase in the past seven months. But it’s probably too soon to get excited about a full housing recovery.</p>
<p>“It looks like this may be a temporary pause,” Nigel Gault,  chief U.S. economist at <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=12534257">Global  Insight Inc.</a> in Lexington, Mass., <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=atzjOWZh4RUU&amp;refer=home">told <strong><em>Bloomberg News</em></strong></a> after the existing homes sales report was released. “The price declines have helped, and people are still getting financing, though not on the good terms they could before.”</p>
<p>“We’re still a long way from a recovery in housing,” Gault  said.</p>
<h3>The Fed to the Rescue?</h3>
<p>U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers cut the benchmark interest rate by less-than-expected three-quarters of a percentage point at their last meeting, a move that was designed to energize a badly flagging economy without causing inflation to spike or exacerbating the greenback’s decline.</p>
<p>When central bank policymakers reduced the key Federal Funds rate from 3% to 2.25% on March 18, it was the sixth time in seven months the closely watched benchmark had been reduced. Many analysts had been expecting a reduction of a percentage point &#8211; or even more &#8211; as such recent events as the near-collapse and subsequent Fed-led bailout of U.S. investment bank The Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bsc">BSC</a>) stoked fears  that the U.S. financial system was ready to seize up.</p>
<p>The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has now cut the Fed Funds rate six times and slashed the Discount Rate for direct loans to banks eight times since August, when the subprime mortgage market collapsed and created a global credit crisis.</p>
<p>While the FOMC made it clear that inflation has grown as a concern, it still says that economic worries remain the biggest problem and emphasized that it was ready to act again if need be.</p>
<p>“Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, including measures to bolster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity,” the FOMC said in its March 18th statement. “However, downside risks to growth remain. The committee will act in a timely manner as need to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.”</p>
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		<title>Cashing in on Commodities: Will Gold Hit $1,500 an Ounce?</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/cashing-in-on-commodities-will-gold-hit-1500-an-ounce/2900</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:53:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mike Caggeso</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AUY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GFI]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Global Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Bugs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greenback]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KGC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RGLD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Subprime Mortgage]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Gold prices have skidded about 15% since the &#8220;yellow metal&#8221; hit an all-time record of $1,032 an ounce on St. Patrick’s Day.</p>
<p>The retreat has most certainly caused &#8220;<a s_oc="null" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment">gold bugs</a>&#8221; considerable angst. But they can relax.</p>
<p>This &#8220;retreat&#8221; is only temporary.</p>
<p>Indeed, gold could easily spike above the $1,500 level this year, says <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson. After all, <a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/six-ways-to-play-money-mornings-prediction-that-gold-is-headed-for-1500-an-ounce/">worldwide monetary policy, global supply-and-demand, and expectations built up from past performance</a><u><a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/six-ways-to-play-money-mornings-prediction-that-gold-is-headed-for-1500-an-ounce/">s</a> </u>already have combined to ignite the earlier rally that took gold to its record levels just a few short months ago.</p>
<p>Many of those factors remain in place.</p>
<p>And now, three additional catalysts are ready to power gold prices to even greater record levels. Those new catalysts are:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Inflation.</li>
<li>Oil prices.</li>
<li>Fatter wallets in emerging markets.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Inflation and&#8230;</h3>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gold prices have skidded about 15% since the &#8220;yellow metal&#8221; hit an all-time record of $1,032 an ounce on St. Patrick’s Day.</p>
<p>The retreat has most certainly caused &#8220;<a s_oc="null" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment">gold bugs</a>&#8221; considerable angst. But they can relax.</p>
<p>This &#8220;retreat&#8221; is only temporary.</p>
<p>Indeed, gold could easily spike above the $1,500 level this year, says <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson. After all, <a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/six-ways-to-play-money-mornings-prediction-that-gold-is-headed-for-1500-an-ounce/">worldwide monetary policy, global supply-and-demand, and expectations built up from past performance</a><u><a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/six-ways-to-play-money-mornings-prediction-that-gold-is-headed-for-1500-an-ounce/">s</a> </u>already have combined to ignite the earlier rally that took gold to its record levels just a few short months ago.</p>
<p>Many of those factors remain in place.</p>
<p>And now, three additional catalysts are ready to power gold prices to even greater record levels. Those new catalysts are:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Inflation.</li>
<li>Oil prices.</li>
<li>Fatter wallets in emerging markets.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Inflation and Gold</h3>
<p>Global inflation will be a key &#8211; if not the key &#8211; factor because of gold’s established reputation as an inflation hedge.</p>
<p>Since September, the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates seven times &#8211; chiefly because of a subprime-mortgage mess that grew into a global financial crisis.</p>
<p>Many foreign central banks have either reduced interest rates in kind, or opted to stand pat, even though inflationary forces in their own markets actually dictated that a rate increase might be a wiser move.</p>
<p>Low worldwide interest rates &#8211; arguably an artificial situation, of sorts &#8211; has stoked global inflation and caused the greenback to plunge to record lows against other major currencies. And the weak greenback has been a key catalyst behind the escalation of oil prices.</p>
<p>As <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>’s <a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/28/with-oil-speculators-blitzing-the-fed-needs-to-call-an-interest-rate-reverse-play/">Hutchinson has predicted</a>, however, the Fed and other central banks will eventually be forced to start pushing interest rates higher &#8211; a stance that <a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/30/dallas-fed-president-lends-credibility-to-money-morningâs-prediction-that-the-federal-reserve-will-soon-be-boosting-interest-rates/">even Fed governors are starting to support</a>.</p>
<p>&#8220;And during that period, expect speculative demand for gold to intensify and its price to increase steeply,&#8221; Hutchinson said. &#8220;The longer the period before the Fed is forced to increase interest rates, the higher gold will go.&#8221;</p>
<h3>&#8220;Black Gold&#8221; and Gold</h3>
<p>There is a very tight correlation between rising oil prices and rising gold prices. While the torrid oil-price advance may moderate at some point &#8211; no market goes straight up or down without interruption &#8211; the trend in the crude-oil market clearly is toward higher prices, <strong><em><a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneyweek.com/file/47078/why-gold-is-still-a-good-long-term-play.html"><a href="http://www.moneyweek.com"  class="alinks_links">MoneyWeek</a> reported</a></em></strong>.</p>
<p>And high oil prices tend to support gold prices.</p>
<p>Referring to the &#8220;magic relationship&#8221; between oil and gold, Moaz Barakat, the managing director of the <a s_oc="null" href="file://sun/bpantalon/Local%20Settings/Temporary%20Internet%20Files/OLK153/World%20Gold%20Council">World Gold Council</a>, said the fluctuations were natural and in accordance with historic price adjustments.</p>
<p>&#8220;If you look at the past 100 years, the gold price was always 10 or 12 times that of oil prices,&#8221; Barakat told <strong><em>MoneyWeek</em></strong>. &#8220;With oil basically around $100 a barrel, gold prices should be at $1,000 or $1,200. That’s the magic relationship between the two.&#8221;</p>
<p>[<strong>Editor’s Note:</strong> Gold investors have made a killing in the past few years, and gold’s meteoric rise is hardly over. <strong><em>Money Morning </em></strong>contributing editor Martin Hutchinson has predicted the precious metal could climb as high as $1,500 in the near future. For additional profit plays on gold - as well as oil, the U.S. dollar, sovereign wealth funds, emerging markets, agriculture, uranium, biotech and much more - check out <strong><em>Money Morning’s</em></strong> just-published global investing guide, <strong><em><a s_oc="null" href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/PLAY0408.html?pub=MMR&amp;code=EMMRJ601">The Essential Investors Playbook</a></em></strong>. It’s <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>’s first foray into the investment-book market, but we’re certain you’ll find it worthwhile.]</p>
<h3>Asian Wealth</h3>
<p>Naturally, <a s_oc="null" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/07/02/can-chinaâs-growth-help-gold-prices-triple/">as per capita wealth increases in such emerging markets as China, India and Latin America, demand for &#8220;American&#8221; goods will soar</a>. That holds true both for American &#8220;brands,&#8221; as well as for so-called &#8220;lifestyle goods&#8221; &#8211; products that foreign consumers identify as being part and parcel of the &#8220;American&#8221; way of life. Jewelry, gold, gems, other precious metals all will benefit from the growing ability of the newly forming middle classes to spend on wares that aren’t just necessities.</p>
<p>That’s different from past bull markets for gold, which were solely inflation-driven; that is, investors who were seeking to hedge their bets against rising prices caused gold prices to skyrocket.</p>
<p>To be sure, inflation has been a big factor this time around. Gold prices usually move in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar. With the dollar weak, and interest rates low, an up-tick in inflation could send gold prices higher.</p>
<p>But for gold prices to really zoom, consumer demand will have to act as an adjunct to inflation. And rising demand from increasingly wealthy consumers in China and India may be just the ticket.</p>
<p>Now that the Internet and satellite TV have allowed these aspiring consumers to see what kinds of wares U.S. consumers regularly have, this new group of Asian consumers also want their own houses, cars, appliances, cell phones, computers and jewelry. They are willing to work to get it. And they are all-too-happy to pay the rising asking price.</p>
<p>The upshot: The wealthier this new group of consumers becomes, the more they’ll envy these goods &#8211; and the higher the price tags on those products will climb.</p>
<p>This new source of demand could potentially blunt gold’s run toward $1,500. Naturally, demand drives up prices. And, recently, steep prices are to blame for the <a s_oc="null" href="http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Gold-sales-down-11--during-Akshaya-Tritiya-this-year/310895/">11% decline in gold sales during the Hindu holiday</a> of <a s_oc="null" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akshaya_Tritiya">Akshaya Tritiya</a>, where long-term investments such as gold, silver and real estate are religiously merited as purveyors of prosperity.</p>
<p>Like Christmas, Hindus are constantly reminded of Akshaya Tritiya by a bevy of special sales and advertisements from jewelers and real estate companies. </p>
<p>This is important to note because Hindus were <em>curbing the religious tradition </em>of buying gold, which sheds light on &#8220;how much is too much?&#8221;</p>
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		<title>The Wrong Kind of Bubbles</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-wrong-kind-of-bubbles/2677</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-wrong-kind-of-bubbles/2677#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 May 2008 18:46:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Bonner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Kissenger]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>A typical financial tale – where nothing goes as hoped for, and everything goes as it should&#8230;*** The rise of speculative capital&#8230;pumping up a bubble with a chip on its shoulder&#8230;*** The three vicious cycles we must face&#8230;an interesting <em>TIME</em>  cover&#8230;and more!<br />
The linchpin of today’s reckoning is this little headline in the <em>Financial Times</em> :</p>
<p>“Investors increase bets on US rate rise.”</p>
<p>Anticipating a rise in rates, rather than another cut, investors sold gold, bonds, and oil. The black goo lost $4 a barrel. Gold got slammed for a $23 loss, while yields on 10-year Treasury Notes rose over 4% (yields rise as prices fall).</p>
<p>Why would the Fed put rates up? Ah&#8230;that’s our story for today. It’s a story of numbskullery, tomfoolery, and chicanery&#8230;of&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A typical financial tale – where nothing goes as hoped for, and everything goes as it should&#8230;*** The rise of speculative capital&#8230;pumping up a bubble with a chip on its shoulder&#8230;*** The three vicious cycles we must face&#8230;an interesting <em>TIME</em>  cover&#8230;and more!<br />
The linchpin of today’s reckoning is this little headline in the <em>Financial Times</em> :</p>
<p>“Investors increase bets on US rate rise.”</p>
<p>Anticipating a rise in rates, rather than another cut, investors sold gold, bonds, and oil. The black goo lost $4 a barrel. Gold got slammed for a $23 loss, while yields on 10-year Treasury Notes rose over 4% (yields rise as prices fall).</p>
<p>Why would the Fed put rates up? Ah&#8230;that’s our story for today. It’s a story of numbskullery, tomfoolery, and chicanery&#8230;of vigilantes and blazing saddles&#8230;of war and forgetting. In short&#8230;it’s a typical financial tale, where nothing goes as hoped for&#8230;and everything goes as it should.</p>
<p>Let us back up.</p>
<p>Last year, we were writing about a ‘battle’ between inflation and deflation. The markets were deflating&#8230;but the feds were inflating. Who was going to win?</p>
<p>Actually, it was a mixed-up, woebegone war&#8230;with casualties all over the place and the average American household caught in the crossfire. The poor lumpenconsumer has been taking incoming from both sides for more than a year. His house sustained a direct hit from deflation. Then, his income got whacked by shrapnel from the dollar’s blowup.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, inflation blasts him with higher costs for just about everything – notably the essentials, fuel and food. What can he do but keep his head down?</p>
<p>And pity the poor guy who was lured out to a distant, new suburb by a big, new house with a big subprime mortgage! Now, he’s got to pay $4 a gallon to drive to work, while his house payment goes up and his house value goes down.</p>
<p>Naturally, the feds rushed to help the guy. His real problem was that he had too much credit&#8230;but didn’t stop them; they tried to give him more.</p>
<p>Still, when a bubble pops, it is almost impossible to pump it up again.</p>
<p>Henry Kissinger explains why in today’s <em>International Herald Tribune</em> :</p>
<p>“&#8230;the role of speculative capital has magnified. For speculative capital, nimbleness is the essential attribute. Rushing in when it sees and opportunity and heading for the exit at the first sign of trouble&#8230;”</p>
<p>Speculative capital is what the Feds create when they lend money below the inflation rate. It does not go out and invest in long term projects like steel mills. Instead, it looks for the hot, rising market&#8230;the one that will give it a quick payoff. The guy with the big house and the subprime mortgage was not really buying a house&#8230;he never paid for it. He was just speculating.</p>
<p>And now his speculation has gone bad&#8230;and all the Fed’s hot air goes into a new bubble. When the tech stock bubble popped, for example, the next big thing was a bubble in housing and housing-related debt. When the housing and subprime bubbles popped we guessed that the authorities would pump hard to try to reflate them&#8230;but that the Fed’s inflation would go into new bubbles – in commodities, oil, and gold. So far, so good. Oil slid up past $135. Gold shot up over $1,000. And food? Food prices are so high they’ve set off riots all over the world. The OECD says high food prices are here to stay. And farmers in Argentina are setting up roadblocks, again, to try to starve the capital into submission.</p>
<p>Getting back to oil&#8230;British truckers clogged up London earlier this week, demanding relief from high fuel taxes; truckers in Marseille shoved against riot police&#8230;again, complaining about the high cost of diesel fuel, which is running about $9 a gallon in France. We’re pleased to report than no mobs are forming to demand cheaper gold&#8230;but surely some bubble is in the yellow metal is bound to inflate sooner or later.</p>
<p>At the heart of the discontent is a very new, very disturbing, and very predictable fact: these new bubbles are not nearly as nice as the old ones.</p>
<p>*** The bubble in residential property made people feel good. They thought they were wealthy and thought they could ‘take out’ a little of that wealth and spend it. A bubble in oil is an entirely different matter. It makes people feel poorer every time they fill up their gas tank. And it forces them to cut back on spending rather than increase it.</p>
<p>Earlier this week we reported an historic downturn in Americans’ driving habits. For the first time since the ’40s, they’re seeing considerably less of the U.S.A. in their Chevrolets. This morning, comes this headline from Bloomberg:</p>
<p>“Sears posts net loss as consumers slow spending on clothing.”</p>
<p>They’re spending less on imports too – bringing the U.S. trade deficit to a 5-year low.</p>
<p>Remarkably, despite these huge victories for the forces of deflation, the U.S. economy is still growing and the stock market is not falling apart. The latest numbers from Washington tell us that GDP grew 0.9% in the last quarter, rather than the 0.6% previously reported. Knowing how the Labor Department suborns its numbers, however, we would want a good cross-examination before we believe them.</p>
<p>After the Fed intervened to save Bear Stearns, it looked for a while as if they had done the trick – as if they had succeeded in re-inflating the bubble in the financial industry. After the panic, the bank index rallied 22%. But now it’s given up almost all that gain. Banks are about 40% down from their high&#8230;amid talk of more pain and suffering in the industry. Wall Street, for example, said it had more layoffs coming later in the year.</p>
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		<title>Jim Rogers Sees More Pain to Come While Warren Buffett’s Housing Expert Sees Rebound Under Way</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/jim-rogers-sees-more-pain-to-come-while-warren-buffett%e2%80%99s-housing-expert-sees-rebound-under-way/2011</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/jim-rogers-sees-more-pain-to-come-while-warren-buffett%e2%80%99s-housing-expert-sees-rebound-under-way/2011#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 20:48:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Patalon III</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barclays Plc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George Soros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Homeservices Of America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Rogers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Subprime Mortgage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p> When asked about their outlook for the crisis-ridden U.S. housing and financial-services markets, two U.S. financial experts provided outlooks that completely contradicted one another &#8211; once again underscoring how tough it is for investors to predict when the U.S. economy will turn around.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&#38;code=WMMRJ404">Jim  Rogers</a>, a best-selling author who co-founded the famed Quantum Fund with  George Soros back in 1970, told <strong><em>Bloomberg News </em></strong>Thursday that the  global credit crisis caused by the subprime mortgage meltdown is nowhere near  over.</p>
<p>&#8220;I doubt that we’re half way  through the financial crisis,&#8221; Rogers stated at a Barclays PLC (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABCS">BCS</a>) news conference Thursday in Singapore, where he now lives with his family. &#8220;We certainly haven’t hit the bottom as far as I’m concerned.&#8221;</p>
<p>Not only did Rogers’&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> When asked about their outlook for the crisis-ridden U.S. housing and financial-services markets, two U.S. financial experts provided outlooks that completely contradicted one another &#8211; once again underscoring how tough it is for investors to predict when the U.S. economy will turn around.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&amp;code=WMMRJ404">Jim  Rogers</a>, a best-selling author who co-founded the famed Quantum Fund with  George Soros back in 1970, told <strong><em>Bloomberg News </em></strong>Thursday that the  global credit crisis caused by the subprime mortgage meltdown is nowhere near  over.</p>
<p>&#8220;I doubt that we’re half way  through the financial crisis,&#8221; Rogers stated at a Barclays PLC (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABCS">BCS</a>) news conference Thursday in Singapore, where he now lives with his family. &#8220;We certainly haven’t hit the bottom as far as I’m concerned.&#8221;</p>
<p>Not only did Rogers’ comments contradict those put forth this week by the heads of several Wall Street investment banks, they even ran counter to statements made by former partner Soros, who said this week that he believed the &#8220;acute phase&#8221; of the worldwide financial crisis was nearly done &#8211; meaning the U.S. economy might soon start displaying the benefits.</p>
<p>Rogers’ downbeat outlook also ran counter to some upbeat observations made by Ronald J. Peltier, the chairman and chief executive officer of investing guru Warren Buffet’s <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Homeservices+of+America+&amp;hl=en">HomeServices  of America Inc.</a> real estate company, who told <strong><em>CNBC-TV</em></strong> that  the beaten-up U.S. housing market has leveled out and is poised for a move to  higher ground.</p>
<p>&#8220;I think the real truth is the market has been in a phase of correction,&#8221; Peltier said Thursday morning during an interview on the popular financial cable channel. &#8220;We are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.&#8221;</p>
<p>So who’s correct?</p>
<p>Rogers, currently the chairman of Rogers Holdings and the  author of the new investment bestseller, &#8220;<a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&amp;code=WMMRJ404">A  Bull in China</a>,&#8221; seems to think that’s a pretty easy question to answer.  After all, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=akM1XZiRxLls">big  global securities firms and commercial banking enterprises have taken about  $319 billion in write-downs</a> since the start of 2007 and have slashed away 65,000 jobs in the past 10 months as the financial crisis spread across the globe, <strong><em>Bloomberg</em></strong> reported.</p>
<p>And there’s more to come.</p>
<p>&#8220;Most of the European banks and Asian banks haven’t taken a huge write-off yet,&#8221; Rogers said. &#8220;I suspect there are more write-offs to come in Europe and Asia.&#8221;</p>
<p>Echoing comments he made two  months ago during an exclusive interview with <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a> </em></strong>Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald, Rogers told listeners in Singapore Thursday that he’s avoiding financial stocks and is betting that the share prices of U.S. investment banks have a lot further to fall. He also sees continued major problems for U.S. homebuilders that very often doled out mortgages that did not require documentation regarding assets or income, and for government-sponsored mortgage financier Fannie Mae (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=fnm&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den">FNM</a>). That’s why he’s expecting housing stocks and Fannie Mae’s shares to decline even more than they already have as investors avoid all but the safest assets &#8211; such as U.S. Treasury debt.</p>
<p>Such ongoing uncertainty and fearfulness can’t help but cause overall stock-and-bond prices to fall even further, Rogers told reporters.</p>
<p>Indeed, during his recent  exclusive interview with <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>’s Fitz-Gerald, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/08/exclusive-interview-investment-guru-jim-rogers-predicts-more-pain-for-the-greenback-and-the-failure-of-the-federal-reserve/">Rogers  said it’s even possible that the U.S. Federal Reserve could ultimately fail</a>.</p>
<p>As if to defy his gloomy  predictions, stocks have rallied since mid-March, when JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.  (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=jpm&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den">JPM</a>),  the No. 3 U.S. commercial bank, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/03/17/bear-stearns%e2%80%99-stumble-reignites-concerns-about-write-downs-possible-failures-in-u.s.-financial-sector/">agreed  to buy The Bear Stearns Cos</a>. Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bsc&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den">BSC</a>),  in a central-bank-sponsored bailout deal. In fact, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSCI_World">MSCI World Index</a> has <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MXWO%3AIND">gained</a> 10%  since touching a one-year low on March 17, <strong><em>Bloomberg</em></strong> reported.</p>
<p>While HomeServices’ Peltier agrees that was a problem &#8211; a &#8220;lot of people bought ahead of themselves,&#8221; and speculators damaged the market even more &#8211; he told <strong><em>CNBC</em></strong> that he now believes the U.S. housing market has actually returned to its pre-boom times, with home sales running at an annual rate of about 5 million.</p>
<p>&#8220;I think that’s a normalized market and I think that’s a sustainable level,&#8221; he told an interviewer. But he also divided the market into two distinct parts:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>The       primary market of discretionary sellers.</li>
<li>And the distressed market, which includes some of the regions that experienced the &#8220;meteoric&#8221; rise in housing prices &#8211; and which now are suffering the fallout.</li>
</ul>
<p>Even after that, however, it’s clear that &#8220;housing prices are still within 8% to 10% of all-time highs,&#8221; Peltier said. &#8220;The markets that have fallen off the most are actually the markets that were the most overheated.&#8221;</p>
<p>As the housing market returns to its more-normal operation, Peltier believes stability will return and that prices and sales numbers will return to a point that was sustainable.</p>
<p>There is one wild card that has the executive concerned, however: Will the pressures of soaring fuel costs and a tight credit market put an inordinate amount of pressure on consumers who are attempting to work out their housing problem &#8211; as opposed to just walking away?</p>
<p>&#8220;A lot of people bought ahead of themselves,&#8221; Peltier said in the interview. &#8220;Frankly, I think to some degree the lending industry, the mortgage business, lost its moral compass in terms of providing the proper credit standards and qualifications.&#8221;</p>
<p>Speculators proved to be the real troublemakers: From 2001 to 2006, a full 25% of sales were made to buyers who believed they could turn a quick profit, and not to people who were planning to live in the houses and make them into a home.</p>
<p>In retrospect, Peltier said it’s clear the U.S. housing market got way ahead of itself from a price standpoint, with the flames of speculation getting fanned by unscrupulous appraisers and lenders who ended up putting lots of consumers into houses that they couldn’t afford.</p>
<p>Industry officials &#8220;knew it was an overheated market,&#8221; Peltier said. &#8220;There were people for the first time ever having opportunity to buy part of the American dream under credit conditions and credit guidelines that were very, very shaky at best … And they were buying at the peak of the market with very low teaser rates, not fully understanding the implications of that adjustable-rate mortgage [re-setting at a much-higher rate] sometime in the future, and the probability that they could not afford that home under the new reset conditions. That’s a travesty, because there are a lot of people that got hurt.&#8221;</p>
<p>He called on Congress to find a workable solution to the housing crisis, something that has been elusive as the legislators and President Bush spar over who should benefit from pending legislation.</p>
<p>On the broader political landscape, Peltier said the housing industry generally does better when Republicans are in office, though he did not endorse a specific candidate in the presidential race.</p>
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		<title>The 10 Hottest Global Profit Opportunities to Follow for the Next 18 Months</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-10-hottest-global-profit-opportunities-to-follow-for-the-next-18-months/1962</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 13:40:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Acquisitions Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[biotech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capitalist Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Capital Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers And Acquisitions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Subprime Mortgage]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>For the first time in modern history, the US economy finds itself back with the masses, flying coach instead of first class. These shocking facts say it all:</p>
<ul>
<li>From 2005 to 2010 alone, worldwide wealth will soar from $118 trillion to more than $200 trillion &#8212; with the newly capitalist markets of Asia and Europe accounting for the biggest share.</li>
<li> Over  the next 25 years, America’s share of the worldwide economic pie will slip from  28% to 24%…</li>
<li> While during that same stretch Asia’s share of the global market will almost double &#8212; meaning it will account for a whopping 55% of the global economy by 2030.</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Money Morning</a> managing editor William Patalon III has put together are 10 that hottest profit opportunities in the&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the first time in modern history, the US economy finds itself back with the masses, flying coach instead of first class. These shocking facts say it all:</p>
<ul>
<li>From 2005 to 2010 alone, worldwide wealth will soar from $118 trillion to more than $200 trillion &#8212; with the newly capitalist markets of Asia and Europe accounting for the biggest share.</li>
<li> Over  the next 25 years, America’s share of the worldwide economic pie will slip from  28% to 24%…</li>
<li> While during that same stretch Asia’s share of the global market will almost double &#8212; meaning it will account for a whopping 55% of the global economy by 2030.</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Money Morning</a> managing editor William Patalon III has put together are 10 that hottest profit opportunities in the global capital markets at different times over the next 12 months or more.<strong><u></u></strong></p>
<p><strong><u>1) Cash       in on the Cash Barons</u></strong>: Sovereign wealth funds from China and the Middle East are pouring billions into stocks too many investors would rather ignore.</p>
<p><u><strong>2) </strong></u><strong><u>Energize       With Energy</u></strong>: Energy will be a recurrent theme in the months to come &#8211; and not just in terms of oil and gasoline. Crude oil will remain in the forefront of the profit plays to come. But that’s not all: Alternative energy opportunities such as uranium and so-called “green energy” investments will benefit from soaring prices for conventional energy sources. When it comes to these profit plays, it will pay to keep all your bases covered.</p>
<p><strong><u>3) Buy       into Buyouts</u></strong>: Mergers and acquisitions, management buyouts and private-equity deals helped fuel the record run in the U.S. stocks in the first half of 2007. The subprime-mortgage mess and ensuing credit crisis will make it tougher to do deals in the next 12 months, but the choicest buyouts still will get done.</p>
<p><strong><u>4) Build       With Biotech</u></strong>: This isn’t your father’s biotech sector. No longer are we talking only about the “Big Pharma” drug-development firms. Some of the biggest players are now trying to solve the world’s food and fuel shortages &#8211; with some notable successes. With special, more-environmentally friendly herbicides and higher-yielding, genetically engineered crop seeds, these companies have already engineered big increases in sales and profits &#8211; and there’s a lot more to come.</p>
<p><strong><u>5) Home       in on Housing</u></strong>: Housing’s down, but it’ll never be out. The turnaround is still some time off, but this sector isn’t going to go away. It’ll take careful and patient investing to profit here, but keep the sector on your radar screen &#8211; if for no other reason than to use it as a barometer for the rest of the currently moribund U.S. economy.</p>
<p><strong><u>6) Invest       in Income</u></strong>: Studies show time and again that income is key to any portfolio’s success. And those same studies show that if you call the dividend play during a bearish market, your portfolio will easily beat “the spread” &#8211; in this case, the market averages as measured by the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=626307">Standard &amp; Poor’s       500 Index</a> and <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582">Dow       Jones Industrial Average</a>. And if you can’t decide between stocks or       bonds for income, don’t flip &#8211; our report covers both sides of the coin.</p>
<p><strong><u>7) Hit       the “BRICs:</u>” </strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC">BRIC</a> is a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGS">GS</a>) acronym for “Brazil, Russia, India and China.” Three of the four &#8211; Brazil, India and China &#8211; are not to be ignored in the months to come. After the wild ride Chinese stocks have provided in recent months, too many U.S. investors are ready to give up on the Red Dragon. Don’t make that mistake. We’ve seen some life in China’s stock market in recent days, and there will be plenty of ways to profit from that emerging economic colossus, some of which involve only moderate risk<strong>. [To find out how you can obtain a free copy       of investing guru <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&amp;code=WMMRJ404">Jim       Roger’s</a> new bestseller, “<a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&amp;code=WMMRJ404">A       Bull in China</a>,” which details investing strategies for that burgeoning       market, <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&amp;code=WMMRJ404">please       click here</a>].</strong></p>
<p><strong><u> <img src='http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> Go       for Gold</u></strong>: The yellow metal has enjoyed a record run. And it’s       subsequently <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/05/making-sense-of-and-profiting-from-golds-dip-below-850/">dropped       back</a>. But don’t let that disappoint you: With global demand for       commodities of all kinds soaring, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/09/six-ways-to-play-money-mornings-prediction-that-gold-is-headed-for-1500-an-ounce/">there’s       plenty of yardage left on this play</a>. Besides, if inflation escalates       as many experts expect, gold will provide a terrific portfolio hedge.</p>
<p><strong><u>9) Couple       up With Commodities</u></strong>: The gangbusters global growth that’s causing gold and crude oil prices to “go long” is having the same effect on such commodities as wheat, corn and soybeans. Even <a href="http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/ROG0108mm.html?pub=MMR&amp;code=WMMRJ404">Jim       Rogers</a> says the global demand for commodities is only going to escalate, meaning this is a play you can call now with a high degree of confidence and score again and again.<strong><u></u></strong></p>
<p><strong><u>10) Don’t Give up on the Greenback</u></strong>: The U.S. dollar has been sinking against virtually every other major currency, a trend that could well continue for some time to come. That doesn’t mean you should ignore the greenback. Run a reverse and look for ways to profit on its pain. Not only will you score now, you’ll be focused in and ready to profit when playing field changes and the U.S. greenback reverses course on its own run for the end zone.</p>
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		<title>10 Reasons Why We May Have Hit A Bottom, But Not The Bottom</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/10-reasons-why-we-may-have-hit-a-bottom-but-not-the-bottom/1344</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/10-reasons-why-we-may-have-hit-a-bottom-but-not-the-bottom/1344#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2008 11:46:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics & Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angelo Mozilo]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Slim Helu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chuck Prince]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup Inc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Countrywide Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Crunch]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[market bottom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merrill Lynch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starbucks Corp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Subprime Mortgage]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Since the start of the year, the debate over the state of the U.S. economy seems to escalate by the day.</p>
<p>The ongoing subprime mortgage mess, the resultant credit crunch and daily stories about housing defaults, escalating oil prices and lousy corporate earnings only seem to further fuel the debate.</p>
<p>Of course, we all see the government reports and analyst research notes that seem to contradict one another from one day to the next &#8211; and sometimes from one hour to the next.</p>
<p>So here at <strong><em>Money  Morning</em></strong>, we thought we’d take a bit of a different approach, and use some of the social indicators that we’ve come across to develop a &#8220;Top 10 List&#8221; of reasons the U.S. economy may have achieved&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since the start of the year, the debate over the state of the U.S. economy seems to escalate by the day.</p>
<p>The ongoing subprime mortgage mess, the resultant credit crunch and daily stories about housing defaults, escalating oil prices and lousy corporate earnings only seem to further fuel the debate.</p>
<p>Of course, we all see the government reports and analyst research notes that seem to contradict one another from one day to the next &#8211; and sometimes from one hour to the next.</p>
<p>So here at <strong><em>Money  Morning</em></strong>, we thought we’d take a bit of a different approach, and use some of the social indicators that we’ve come across to develop a &#8220;Top 10 List&#8221; of reasons the U.S. economy may have achieved a new market bottom &#8211; though perhaps it’s not yet the <em><u>ultimate</u></em> market bottom.</p>
<p>Admittedly, this list is absolutely tongue in cheek. But social indicators do play a huge role in successful investing, even though the scholarly types often consider them little more than slightly disguised voodoo.</p>
<p>Nevertheless,  here’s our Top 10 List:</p>
<p>10. Although its company stock is down  14% year-to-date, there are still 172 Starbucks Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=sbux">SBUX</a>) employees for every  citizen of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vatican_city">Vatican City</a>.</p>
<p>9.   The world’s three richest men &#8211; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett">Warren Buffett</a> ($62  billion), <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Slim_Helu">Carlos Slim  Helu’</a> ($60 billion) and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_gates">Bill  Gates</a> ($58 billion) &#8211; are worth as much as the combined gross domestic  product (GDP) of the world’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29">40  poorest countries</a>.</p>
<p>8.   Chairman  and Chief Executive Officer <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelo_Mozilo">Angelo Mozilo</a> of Countrywide Financial Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=cfc">CFC</a>), and former executives <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Prince">Charles O. &#8220;Chuck&#8221;  Prince III</a> who was ousted from Citigroup Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c&amp;hl=en">C</a>) and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_O%27Neal">E. Stanley  &#8220;Stan&#8221; O’Neal</a> of Merrill Lynch &amp; Co. Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mer&amp;hl=en">MER</a>), can still  make house payments.</p>
<p>7.   Upscale hedge fund managers still prefer  Mercedes SUVs for their nannies.</p>
<p>6. <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/11/one-sure-fire-sign-that-gas-prices-are-heading-higher/">Weathermen  have a better predictive record than economists.</a></p>
<p>5.   History shows that recessions wipe out between 20% and 25% of financial assets. Even with the almost $300 billion in financial write-downs we’ve seen so far, we’re still at a mere 5% of the total (depending on which numbers you believe).</p>
<p>4.   <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan">Alan  Greenspan</a> reportedly makes more money per speech now than he did annually  as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>3.   U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernanke">Ben S. Bernanke</a> still has a  job.</p>
<p>2.   As of the close yesterday (Wednesday), the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=626307">Standard &amp; Poor’s 500  Index</a> has only fallen 13% from its intraday peak on Oct. 11, 2007. Like a barber-school trainee, recessions typically clip 25%-30% off the top.</p>
<p>And the  number-one reason we haven’t reached the bottom yet:</p>
<p>1.   <strong><em>BusinessWeek</em></strong> has yet to publish a successor issue to  their infamous Aug. 13, 1979 cover story that predicted &#8220;<a href="http://static.flickr.com/8/7265064_e30fd4083b.jpg">The Death of Equities</a>.&#8221;  That story preceded one of the greatest bull market runs in history.</p>
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