Investors are further assured that the stocks held in the index have nothing to do with borrowing or lending, women’s fashions, cosmetics, modern cinema, popular music, or pork.

Personally, I wouldn’t touch this fund with a barge pole. It is virtually guaranteed to earn sub-par returns.

Here’s why…

Investing in Sin Stocks vs. Socially Responsible Stocks

If you were given the choice six years ago between investing in the environmentally and socially responsible Sierra Club Stock Fund (Nasdaq: SCFSX) or investing in sin stocks with the Vice Fund (Nasdaq: VICEX), which invests primarily in tobacco, alcohol, defense and gambling, which would you have chosen?

I’ll give you a hint. Your profits would have been much bigger if your conscience weren’t your guide.

• The Sierra Fund has delivered negative returns over the past six years.
• The Vice Fund has delivered positive performance – and beaten the S&P 500 handily, too.

This is no aberration.

Merrill Lynch recently examined the performance of alcohol, tobacco and casino stocks in all recessions since 1970 and found that while the S&P 500 fell 1.5% on average, sin stocks rose an average 11%.

This downturn isn’t shaping up to be any different.

Sure, consumers are cutting their spending far more than in past recessions. But history shows that people do not drop their bad habits in hard times.

Rather many people feel an intense need to escape through alcohol, tobacco, or a trip to their local casino.

This is not too surprising.

If a citizen of ancient Greece or Rome were magically transported into the modern era, he would be astounded by the current state of agriculture, transportation, housing, medicine, architecture, technology and general living standards.

Humanity itself, however, would offer few surprises. We remain the flawed human beings we have always been, struggling with the same deadly sins our ancestors wrestled with millennia ago: greed, gluttony, sloth, pride, anger, envy and lust.

Investing in Sin Stocks Through The 7 Deadly Sins

Given this reality, when it comes to investing in sin stocks, four months ago The Oxford Clubunveiled its new Seven Deadly Sins Portfolio.

It is already up 41%, more than 10 times as much as the S&P 500.

We locked in a 92% profit in the casino stock Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) in 64 days. Our shares of Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC) have doubled in less than four months. All but one of our positions are up over 20%.

Why are these vice stocks outstripping the broad market by such a wide margin? One answer is careful security selection.

But two other studies out of Yale and Princeton offer a further rationale.

• One study attributes vice stock outperformance to the lack of attention pension and other institutional investors pay to these stocks in order “to maintain an aura of respectability.” (That creates opportunity.)
• The other believes it’s because companies in sin industries benefit from high barriers to entry, thanks to strict regulations and taxation.

These factors are not likely to change.

I’m not endorsing the sin industries, incidentally.

I don’t smoke and I hope my kids never do. I don’t gamble unless the stakes are negligible. And I don’t own a handgun, although I am a supporter of Second Amendment rights.

Why Would Anyone Invest in Sin Stocks?

So why would I consider investing in sin stocks and these types of companies?

• Because my investment portfolio is a vehicle for achieving and maintaining financial independence, not for making grand moral statements.
• Consumers and investors have every right to patronize or own any legal, publicly traded business that creates jobs, pays taxes and allows citizens to enjoy their many freedoms.
• Moreover, you only need look at Afghanistan under the Taliban to see what a society unleavened by political, religion and economic freedoms looks like.

Last month French President Sarkozy made news when he said the burqua – a symbol of the repression and subjugation of women – “is not welcome in France.”

Shariah law isn’t welcome in my portfolio either. And the returns have been superb because of it.

Source:  Investing in Sin Stocks: How to Oppose Radical Islam in Your Portfolio

In an effort to demonstrate how serious they are about this whole “recession thing,” they stated that their new interbank loan rate target was zero. Zip. Nada.

When asked if this meant they had run out of bullets, Bernanke implied they could always simply inject money directly into the system by buying billions of dollars worth of Treasury bonds.

This is actually a peculiar thought, because Treasury bonds are the one asset that is actually in demand these days (whereas dollar demand is actually rather tepid).

In fact, Chairman Bernanke’s rather alarming statement caused the U.S. dollar to fall against the euro by the biggest amount in the latter currency’s history. The dollar also notched up a 13-year low against the yen.

Why Are They So Scared of American Banks?

But let’s go back to T-Bills for a moment. Right now, there is so much desire out there for the darn things, the Treasury Department can actually offer interest rates of zero, and even less than zero, and they just keep on selling.

To explain this, I’ve heard a dozen or so terms bandying about: words like inflation, deflation and stagflation. What I want to know is this: why would somebody want to buy T-Bills at zero percent, when they could park them at most any American bank for 2% or 3%? And that’s just for short-term notes – commit to a longer time spread and you can crank that up to nearly 5%.

The only reason I can think of is that despite all the efforts to secure the banks – all the billions and indeed trillions of dollars we have poured into their coffers, and all the various deposit insurance promises Washington has made – whoever is buying all those T-Bills has reason to think America’s banks are still not good risks right now.

And that’s a scary thought indeed.

No More Failures (Please?)

In a press conference on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson assured us to the contrary. Paulson is so sure that the banks are completely secure, he might not even ask for the second half of his “TARP” money. “I don’t expect any more major financial institutions to fail during the current credit crisis,” he said.

Shortly after Paulson made this categorical statement, Morgan Stanley (MS: NYSE) announced that it had lost another $2.2 billion in the three months ending on Nov. 30.

They were kind enough to point out that while this loss was some 558% higher than they had led folks to expect, it was actually a 39% improvement over the same time period last year.

Another scary thought.

The Wrong Kind of Record Gain

Meanwhile, things are still tough down in the trenches (where success or failure is measured by whether you still get a paycheck). Last week saw new applications for unemployment surge to a 26-year high.

The only good news to come out of all that was analyst expectations that unemployment had peaked. Unfortunately, we are now being told to look out for another record-breaker.

Indeed, Nobel prize-winning “Neo-Keynesian” Professor Paul Krugman has warned that if Washington does not continue to dump billions (if not trillions) into the economy, unemployment could climb as high as 10%.

Krugman shouldn’t worry but so much: The incoming Obama administration has pledged an immediate flow of additional billions aimed directly at unemployment – not to mention a highway and bridge program as big as anything we’ve seen since Eisenhower in the 1950s.

The Perfect Accessories For Troubled Times

So, given all that, here are a few things you might care to invest in during these troubled times.

Back in the days of FDR, they used to call idle hands the tools of the devil. Certainly unemployed folks are occasionally driven by desperation to seek out cash by removing it from other folks’ wallets. Usually by threat of force.

I don’t think that but so many middle-class working stiffs are going to start carrying serious heat. In fact, Smith and Wesson (SWHC: NASDAQ) are in a bit of a pickle this quarter, as only their lower-margin Saturday night specials seem to be selling well right now.

But I do think sales for those nifty little shock guns TASER (TASR: NasdaqGS) sells could be just the thing in 2009.

And if Obama is bound and determined to spend trillions building roads, I suppose a few shares of Caterpillar (CAT: NYSE) would do well as a stocking stuffer.

Finally, I suspect that all these trillions and trillions of loose dollars that Washington seems intent on forcing on us will quickly reverse the minor deflation we have seen over the past few weeks. So I would strongly suggest adding shares of PowerShares Bearish Dollar ETF (UDN) as a hedge against the return of inflation.

Source: What to Buy as the Dollar Stumbles

Our closed recommendations (i.e., stock recommendations with specific buy and sell recommendations), we recorded average gains of 24.1%, with an average holding period of 27 days.

Some gains in particular were truly stellar…

· 50.1% on Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (NASDAQ:SWHC)
· 87.1% on National City (NYSE:NCC) Jan 2.5 calls
· 79.6% on Boeing (NYSE:BA) Feb 55 puts
· 190% on Boeing Aug 90 calls
· 55.5% on Rex Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:REXX)

But now it’s time to throw in the towel on some duds…

The shipping sector sank with the global recession. If you are still holding any, it’s time to unload shares of:

· China COSCO Holding (PINK:CICOF)
· Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX)

Energy explorers’ and drillers’ share prices have probed new depths of late with oil prices hovering around $50. Ditch any shares you might have of:

· Grand Tierra Energy Inc. (AMEX:GTE)
· Parker Drilling Company (NYSE:PKD)
· Royal Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROYL)
· Pyramid Oil Company (AMEX:PDO)

With the delay in the production of the Nano continuing to impact stock price, let’s put the breaks on this Indian carmaker. Let go of any shares you might have of:

· Tata Motors (NYSE:TTM)

As gold fluctuates, this Canadian/Chinese gold miner is no longer a good investment. Lose any shares you might have of:

· Jinshan Gold Mines Inc. (TSE:JIN)

We suggested that readers with the stomach for risk might want to pick up shares of this troubled banker in case of a buyout. No such luck. Dump any shares you might have of:

· IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. (OTC:IDMCQ)

A great seasonal brew and a recession didn’t help this beer maker. If it’s in your portfolio, sell:

· Craft Brewers Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOK)

Not that any of those stocks represent bad companies. Far from it! If this were a normal market environment, we’d have no problems holding on to most of them. But reason and rationality have departed from the markets… and it might take months or even years for the prices of these stocks to even get close to our original buying range.

Source: Drop these losers from your portfolio

The people of the United States of America prayed for a political messiah. Now that he has stepped forth, we are left to wonder, what next?

Politics is not really our beat here at the Rude Awakening, so we won’t be offering up any four-legged sacrifices for the promise of financial salvation. In the harsh light of economic reality, miracles are hard to come by, even for those claiming to posses the kind of optimistic foresight that defies rational explanation.

A cursory glance toward the economic horizon reveals some perilous obstacles ahead. As we walk through the valley of 5-year market lows, the shadow of the death of consumer spending looms particularly large. American consumers, upon the backs of whom almost two-thirds of the world’s largest economy rests, cut spending by an annualized 3.1% for the third quarter. For perspective, that marks the first quarterly decline since 1991, as well as the largest quarterly decline in 28 years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

Meanwhile, prices of goods and services purchased by US residents jumped 4.8%. That’s on top of a 4.2% increase in the second quarter. Even excluding food and energy, prices were still up by 3.1% in Q3.

As the consumer-driven economy grips the emergency brake and higher prices put the squeeze on employers, jobless rates continue to skyrocket. The Department of Labor is expected to announce the loss of 200,000 jobs for the month of October when it meets on Friday. That would drive unemployment to 6.3%, up 0.2% from September.

Shrugging off all these annoying statistics, however, the market continue to mount a herculean rally. After posting its worst month since 1987, the Dow surged an impressive 300 points Tuesday in anticipation of Obama’s victory, topping off double-digit gains for indexes across the board last week.

Could we be witnessing a miracle in the making here? Is it possible that a new tablet of financial commandments might render the age-old saws of saving and producing nothing more than outdated or even, dare we say, profane?

We wouldn’t dare offend any divine and future superintendent of the financial universe by asserting otherwise…but we reserve the right to remain unconvinced.

In the absence of proof that what goes up need not come down, we will continue to seek our financial guidance from within the “boring” confines of reality. And so, we turn to the inimitable Rude Readership for the results of our latest Group Research Project.

A couple of weeks ago, we asked readers to submit their favorite “chicken longs.” Put simply, we wanted to know what stocks readers would like to have in their portfolio should the heavens open up and curse the earth with a great financial flood. Such stocks might derive their buoyancy by paying a large dividend, enjoying a competitive position in a relatively “high ground” sector or through some other means of protection.

We have no clue as to whether the President Elect will perpetuate the current state of fiscal delusion or merely usher in a winter of slightly milder discontent…but it is probably best to be prepared for either scenario.

Reader “Bradbarb69″ kicks off our newest Rude Awakening Group Research Project with the following cheerful suggestion:

“I like prison stocks. There will never be a shortage of lawbreakers at any level, and governments must maintain prisons for the public good. As crime rises (as it inevitably will) these stocks will be good holdings. I also like [the cemetery operator] Stonemore Partners L.P. (NASDAQ:STON) for its high dividend and for the fact people will always die no matter what the economy does. Personal protection stocks are also on my list of “buy at the right price.” I’m thinking in particular of Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) and Taser International (NASDAQ:TASR).

[Editor's Note: Although Bradbarb69 did not provide any specific names in the prison sector, a couple that come to mind are Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) and Corrections Corp. of America (NYSE:CXW).]”

Reader Tom Winstanley recommends Weir Group, a Scottish company that trades in the U.S. over-the-counter market under the symbol, (PINK:WEIGF).

“This company makes boring old pumps,” Tom explains. “Energy and Water are two areas that simply will not wait upon the recovery of the world economy. Come hell or high water, governments know that if they cannot keep the lights on, provide as much fresh water as their people are used to having available and treat waste water to high standards, then they will be more trouble than they can handle. Pumps might be boring but try getting by without them – whatever the state of the economy!” [Editor's Note: Weir trades for less than eight times estimated earnings and yields 4%].

Reader Susan Vander Voet likes the Brazilian oil giant, Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE:PBR), also known as Petrobras. The stock was trading around $21 when Susan submitted her email to us. Today, the stock is around $30.

“I’ve been watching this company for about a year,” Susan writes, “and the reasons for my recommendation are:

1. Active and with interests in several Latin American countries (Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Peru) in exploration, production, distribution and retail;
2. Huge offshore resources discovered in Santos Basin;
3. Active in several African countries (Angola, Tanzania);
4. Stock is trading well below the moving average, which has trended upward for 5 years;
5. As oil prices are projected to recover (in 2009), I see this stock at least doubling its current value ($21).”

Reader David Myrhre identifies Harvest energy Trust (NYSE:HTE), a Canadian investment trust, as his “current fave.” The stock, which was trading below $8.00 when David submitted his email to us, is now north of $11. But even at the current quote, the stock is well below the $18 price tag it fetched in September. What’s more the indicated yield on the stocks is a whopping 27%.

“I’ve heard worries that the dividends will go down because oil prices have gone down,” David explains “But these oil producers sell on annual and multiyear contracts.  Dividends didn’t go up when spot oil prices spiked and they won’t go down just because spot prices did.”

Elsewhere in the Canadian investment trust sector, reader Greg McLean highlights Peyto Energy Trust (PINK:PEYUF), a stock that yields about 14%. Greg also likes Hanfeng Evergreen, “HF” on the Toronto Stock Exchange. “Hanfeng is a small Canadian company that makes slow release rice fertilizer in China,” explains Mr. McLean. “Hanfeng has decent earnings and cash, little debt and is trading close to book. I feel confident betting China will continue to grow rice.”

Another high-yield energy stock is Atlas Pipeline (NYSE:APL), which is a stock that reader Don Gish favors. “My favorite bear market stock is Atlas Pipeline (APL),” Gish writes. “The sudden drop of the energy market and other market sell-off factors have driven APL unrealistically down.  [At the current quote, the stock yields about 20%].  I believe APL’s focus on natural gas pipelines with no exploration/development costs and long term contracts has created an excellent long term dividend with significant potential for future stock price upside.  I love this position, so I have to resist my desire to buy more.”

Lastly, reader Scott Lovinghood writes: “I have a suggestion for a chicken long: Blackrock Municipal Income Closed End Fund (NYSE:BKF).  It is primarily invested in tax free municipal bonds.  At current prices the yield is just a hair under 8% TAX FREE!!  The fund covers many different states and markets.  California is the largest concentration at only 11% of the fund.  The majority are longer dated bonds, so unless municipals are totally wiped out, the monthly pay outs should continue.  The shares were hammered recently due to the credit freeze. The stock’s NAV is $10.15.  But the stock is only $9.20…Not a bad deal.”

And so concludes Part I of our newest Rude Awakening Group Research project.

Source: Chicken Longs