Freddie and Fannie are huge government-chartered mortgage lenders. In 18th century France, speculators bet on the riches of Louisiana, through the government-chartered Louisiana Company. In the 19th century, they wagered their money on the riches of India, through the government-chartered Eastn India Company. And in the 20th century, they gambled on rising housing prices through Fannie and Freddie.

The immediate problem is that the mortgage lenders are running out of money. They need to raise $75 billion. A few years ago, that would have been no problem.

Everybody was ready to put money into America’s go-go, securitized housing market. But then, housing went.

Yesterday’s news tells us that housing prices are falling in 23 out of 25 U.S. metropolitan areas. That, according to Case/Shiller. Foreclosures are still rising at a faster and faster pace. Etc. Etc.

(We’re sparing you the details…we don’t want to upset you too much, dear investor.)

So now, Freddie and Fannie have a problem. They need to raise money – a lot of it. And now it has become “very difficult,” say the experts, to raise that kind of dough. Investors are slowly putting two and three together. The pair of mortgage lenders needs more cash. Their industry is in full flight. Their capital is disappearing.

Their collateral gets marked down every month: “Hey, maybe we should sell the stock!” The result of these deliberations was a bad day on Wall Street for the twins, bringing total losses into the billions for remaining stockholders, who were too slow or too dull to sell their shares.

And for the faithful and/or delirious masses who continue to cling to their Fannie and Freddie shares, the bad news has not yet abated. The giant mortgage lenders must still raise even more capital to cover their mounting piles of defaulting mortgage debts. Freddie and Fannie still need to raise money…lots more money. And if a report leaked from Bridgewater Associates turns out to be correct, so will a lot of other businesses…and governments. Bridgewater’s confidential memo – which got out to the Swiss press and then made its way to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph in London – says that losses from the credit crunch could go as high as $1.6 trillion…four times as high as official estimates from the IMF.

And it only gets worse…

One trillion, six hundred billion dollars is a lot of money. If Bridgewater is right, the whole financial sector will be gutted. You’ll remember, dear investor, after manufacturing pulled out of America, the financial industry was left. And retail. Housing. Services. And not much else. The center of economic power shifted from Detroit and Trenton – where they made things – to Manhattan, where they financed them. Mothers ceased wanting their babies to grow up to be CEO of General Motors; they wanted them to go to Wall Street. That’s where the real money was. Finance was the key not only to huge profits itself, but also to the growth of the retail and housing sectors. People bought durable goods and consumer goods on credit. No credit; no purchases. No purchases; no consumer economy.

Well, now GM has lost 75% of its value…and the financial industry is not far behind.

Well, Bridgewater goes on to say that a $1.6 trillion loss in the financial industry will mean a loss of $12 trillion in credit to the economy as a whole. When the lenders don’t have capital, they can’t lend it out. Typically, they lend $10 for every dollar of capital. So if a dollar of capital is wiped off their balance sheets, as much as $10 of credit is erased from the economy.

Here in Europe, we’re used to high prices. One billion? Heck, we spend that much on lunch. But $12 trillion begins to sound like real money. And $12 trillion taken out of the U.S. consumer economy begins to sound like the Great Depression. Like Japan, 1990-2006…only worse. Collapsing asset prices. Rising unemployment. Bankruptcies. Defaults.

Of course, no central bank or government will go into that good night without a fight. The Fed will cut rates…and lower reserve requirements…and probably intervene directly in markets. Banks will be effectively nationalized…The federal government will increase borrowing and spending to try to offset the money disappearing from the markets and the economy.

What about the foreigners? What about Sovereign Wealth Funds? They’ve got a lot of money. Couldn’t they help recapitalize the credit system? Alas, the SWFs have only $3 trillion currently. And the foreigners? Our guess is that when they realize what is happening they will be desperate to get rid of dollars and U.S. paper of all sorts.

Instead, they’ll want real resources, factories, brands, concrete and land. And they will have a great opportunity. As asset prices fall, they will be able to buy more valuable properties in America at bargain prices. Already, Abu Dhabi bought the Empire State Building. A Belgian brewery, run by Brazilians, is buying Budweiser.
More to come…

How’s our “Trade of the Decade” doing? Eight years ago we suggested you sell stocks and buy gold. The bull market on Wall Street was over, we thought. A bull market in gold was just beginning.

As far as we can tell, we were right.

The S&P is down about 20% from its high…which puts U.S. stocks barely lower than they were in 2000. But adjusted for inflation, the loss has been spectacular. Remember, oil has gone from around $10 a barrel to around $140 a barrel. Everything else has gone up too. Even by official CPI numbers, the year 2000 buck is worth only about 80 cents. And the dollar against the euro is down about 40%.

Real bear markets typically last 10-15 years. This one has another few years to go. These should be the most interesting ones. Commentators are already looking for a bottom in the stock market. They may have to wait a long time.

An ounce of gold would buy the whole Dow in 1926…again in the 1930s…and once again in 1980. If gold stays where it is, the Dow would have to drop below 1,000 for the gold/Dow ratio to return to one. More likely, the Dow will drop and gold will rise to meet it. In 1999, gold bottomed out at around $260 an ounce. Since then it is up nearly 5 times. The U.S. money supply, however, has gone up 11 times. So, our guess is that there’s plenty of upside left for the stuff they make dental fillings out of. If it were to equal the increase in M3, its price could rise to $2,700 or so.

This is all guesswork, of course. But the Trade of the Decade still looks good to us. Gold and the Dow will probably come together somewhere north of 3,000….

Source: The Woes of Fannie and Freddie

Although it is standard procedure for governments to soothe their citizenry with placebo politics in order to avoid panic and uprising, there is a line after which such a campaign is counterproductive. In fact, misleading statements about financial security are potentially dangerous to the country’s long-term economic wellbeing, and potentially toxic to investors.

Economic and financial statistics are the battleground over which the war of perception is fought. But as the saying goes: “Figures lie, and liars figure.”Politicians are masters of the selected use of statistics to lend credibility to their statements. In reality, the numbers often mask the truth.

A year ago, financial markets hovered near nominal highs, retail sales appeared to be growing and real estate prices were near historic highs. Wall Street and Washington made the most of these “over-the-top” numbers to foster a sense of economic invincibility. With the national gaze lifted towards sunny skies, few noticed the danger of the mortgage crisis, which lay below like a tiger trap.

But like watching a poorly dubbed martial arts film, the average American is beginning to notice that the dialogue does not match the on-screen action. As a result, many people are developing a deep suspicion of statistics, which over time will greatly diminish the government’s credibility. In the coming economic crisis, this loss of credibility may have severe consequences.

One vital statistic in the perception battle is gross domestic product (GDP), which is the total of all spending on goods and services within our economy, and is used as the key measure of national wealth generation and economic growth. It may be surprising to some, but GDP includes money spent on clearing up natural disasters such as hurricane relief and pollution control. How such expenditures – that really only replace what has been lost – increase national wealth, is beyond me.

Unemployment figures are another worry. Government adjustments for seasonal and population changes are acceptable. But excluding from the unemployment rolls those who are neither actively seeking jobs nor the “long-term” unemployed is not.

Perhaps, the greatest area of concern about statistical manipulation is the measurement of inflation, or Consumer Price Index (CPI). By manipulating this single statistic the government can miraculously transform rising prices into economic growth.

The Department of Labor has set so-called “core” inflation, excluding food and energy, at 2.2%. Even “headline” inflation, including food and energy, is published officially at only some 4%. The problem is that these figures bear very little relation to the reality of price increases experienced on Main Street, which some estimate to be in excess of 10%.

Statisticians assign different weights to the elements comprising the CPI that are often not reflective of the spending habits of ordinary citizens. For example, housing maintenance (including heating oil), a major expenditure, is given only a small part in the Index’s makeup. In addition, the re-pricing of items such as automobiles to allow for added “hedonistic” features such as enhanced “value for money” is wide open to varying judgments. How these statistical decisions are made is really anyone’s guess. But it is absurd to assume that the government’s overwhelming interest in reporting low inflation does not influence the final numbers.

The financial consequences for investors can be severe. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, against which many investment returns are measured, closed at a nominal high of 14,093 on Oct. 12, 2007. The media reported it as a sign of good things to come. On May 23, 2008, the Dow closed at 12,480 – off a bit, but apparently not too bad. But if that day’s close is adjusted for the official CPI, then it’s not worth 12,480, but only 9,856 when compared with its previous market cycle high, of 11,723, in the year 2000.

Worse still, if adjusted for the more likely but still conservative inflation rate of 8%, the recent close of 12,480 becomes the equivalent of only 6,742 in the year 2000. What looks like a nominal gain of some 757 points or 6.4% is, in fact, a real loss of 4,981 points or some 42% over those eight years!

One set of statistics that is impossible to distort are currency exchange rates, which have provided a somber report card on America’s economic fortunes. Not able to manipulate these numbers, the authorities instead distort their meaning, and have attempted to convince Americans that a weak dollar is in the national interest.

Those wise enough to ignore the spin, and see the falling dollar for what it is, namely a loss of wealth, have invested in good companies listed on the stock exchanges of producer nations, such as Australia, Canada and Switzerland – all countries with appreciating currencies. Such moves have greatly enhanced wealth and protected those investors against further dollar erosion.
[Editor’s Note: John Browne is the senior market advisor for Euro Pacific Capital Inc. For a more-detailed analysis of the nation’s financial problems, and the inherent dangers that these problems pose for both the U.S. economy and for dollar-denominated investments, click here to download Euro Pacific’s new financial-research report, “The Collapsing Dollar: The Powerful Case for Investing in Foreign Securities.” The report is free of charge. Peter D. Schiff, Euro Pacific’s president and chief global strategist, is a regular contributor to Money Morning, and most recently wrote about the oil crisis and China’s growing consumer class in his most recent Money Morning column.]

Source: The Statistical Battleground

London ’s leading index headed straight up at the open adding 69 points at the open to 6,156 following a good day on Wall St. yesterday.

The Dow put on 189 points to close above 13,000 for the first time since the start of the year – no doubt a significant closing level for technical analysts. The gain came as financial stocks made the running and in spite of ExxonMobil shedding 3.6%. Exxon is struggling to up production reports the FT as it falls victim to resource nationalism. African production fell 20% after it was forced to hand over more to host governments and its Venezuelan interests were nationalised.

Continues below …

FLEET STREET LETTER ALERT

3 “Gloom-Loving Stocks” for the Coming Recession

Dark clouds are gathering over the UK economy.

But for contrarian-minded investors, this spells opportunity.

The Fleet Street Letter has just been given permission to share three such money moves with you today.

You can read the full briefing here

Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary. Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Customer Services: 0207 633 3600.

The bounce in US stocks reverberated around the time zones. The Nikkei was up over 2% to close above 14,000 and China’s leading index, the Shanghai Composite added almost 5% as it breaks out from a six month downtrend. European bourses are up across the board this morning.

So is it over? Or is this premature as the IHT suggests? Stock markets are forward looking by six months or so, so are presumable focused somewhere on the end of this year and the bulls see something better out there. But lest we get too carried away the world can look very different at street level. It was only on Monday that Warren Buffett was warning “ my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think. This will not be short and shallow. I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices and not feeling they’ve got a lot of money for other things.”

Except perhaps for the one off “tax rebate” cheque sent to US taxpayers in the post this week. But some relief is coming too from a sector that of late has been a chronic thorn in the side of central bank inflation targets – the commodities market. Commodity prices have been falling of late across the board – energy, industrial and precious metals and agricultural commodities. The price of crude is down for a fourth day running with Brent Crude at $110 and West Texas light sweet crude a shade under $112. Lehman Bros said recently there was $20-30 of “hot money” in the crude price.

Why the pull back? It’s all about the dollar says commodity strategist, David Moore of Commonwealth Bank in Australia:

“The demand for investing in commodities as a hedge for U.S. dollar weakness has faded.”

Which gives us a clue as to the nature of the demand. There’s actual physical demand for commodities according to their use and then there’s more speculative investment demand. With the revival of interest in the sector, how much of the price is attributed to each? We don’t know but given the rapid rise in popularity of the commodity exchange-traded fund, we suspect the balance has tilted significantly in recent years towards the speculator.

That fading interest in hedging has helped the dollar claw itself back from a low point at 1.60 to the euro, to 1.54 now. When even central bankers are telling the market it’s not so bad, investors worries are starting to subside. Says Japanese fund manager Tetsu Emori:

“Worries about the financial market turmoil and even an economic slowdown seem to be softening, so that’s why people are selling gold.”

As such gold continues its slide south, at one point unwinding all the way to its $850 price at the start of the year. Just as the dollar stages something of a rally, the Gulf States may finally be coming to the conclusion that pegging to it is not after all such a good idea as dollar weakness adds to their domestic inflation problems. Something even Alan Greenspan actually advised them to do on a visit to the region. Kuwait has been the only one to drop its peg to date and has seen its currency appreciate almost 8% against the dollar since. Its Finance Minister Mustafa al-Shimali seems confident other Gulf Cooperation Council states will follow its lead – “some countries will do what we are doing.”

Here at home, the winds of political change look to have blown pretty hard yesterday. UK government worries about taking a pasting from the electorate in the local elections proved well founded. They did – their worst result for 40 years. With the Mayoral vote still pending, it could prove a very black day for New Labour. Still after 11 years in government you take some wear and tear, mistakes are made, support disintegrates, people get disillusioned or just fed up with the same old faces.

And it doesn’t help when the much touted UK economic miracle that has notched up 60 consecutive quarters of growth is looking a good deal less miraculous. The progressive puncturing of inflated house prices, aided and abetted by a mortgage famine is exposing gradually testing the debt-laden underbelly of once enthusiastic consumers. British bank HBOS announced house prices fell by 3.7% annualised over the year to April. It is the worst housing market performance since 1993 and comes on top of a controversial scrapping of the 10% starter tax rate. Who’s to blame? The government, of course. Much to the delight of the Tories for whom the ERM debacle is now but a fading memory.

Regards,

Rob Mackrill
The Daily Reckoning

Be the first to comment on this article! Now you can post your thoughts, reactions and views on the topics we talk about.
To comment, click here.

Yesterday was a big day in Italy – 63 years ago. That was the day that Mussolini was shot, along with his mistress. They were hung upside down in Milan. What went wrong with Benito?

“What always seemed to go wrong,” said our guide on Sunday, “was that they ran out of money.”

She was speaking about emperors. She might have been speaking about elected presidents or dictators. When they run out of money, trouble follows.

This week, the United States opened its largest and most expensive embassy ever – in Iraq. It is like the Vatican City, say reports, a country within a country…both heavily fortified and luxurious…ready for a siege or a party.

The Vatican was attacked by its own Holy Roman Emperor, Charles Quint, in the 15th century. He had put together an army of Protestants, at whose head; a general carried a noose – ready to hang the Pope.

But the Pope wasn’t giving up without a fight. With the help of his Swiss Guards, he slid down a back wall of the Vatican and raced over to the Castello San Angelo, where he was able to hold out until the siege was lifted. His Swiss guards, however, were not so lucky. They fought almost to the last man to protect him.

But let us return to our beat – money. Alas, nothing much happened in the world of money yesterday. Instead, markets stood still – as if waiting for something to happen. The Dow eased off only 20 points. The price of oil stayed at $118. The dollar held at $1.56 per euro. And gold rose $5 – remaining where it has been, below $900.

Gold is correcting. Is the bull market over? Readers will remember what we can’t forget what happened to gold in 1980. The price of gold shot up over $800…but then began a bear market that lasted 20 years. Many people think it is happening again. But we also remember that the United States had a positive current account in 1980…and that Americans owned more of foreigners’ assets than foreigners owned of theirs…and that Paul Volcker pushed lending rates above 15% in order to protect the dollar!

Look to the left, dear reader. Look to the right. Do you see Paul Volcker at the Fed? Nope. Volcker is still alive – warning that there is a painful adjustment coming. But at the Fed itself, there is only Ben Bernanke, promising to drop dollars from helicopters, if necessary, in order to keep the economy bubbling along. And since the United States lives so far beyond its means…and owes so much money to so many people…the likelihood that a Paul Volcker will come along to protect the dollar is probably about as likely as Alan Greenspan being elected as the new Pope.

No, fear not. The Fed is unlikely to fall victim of a sudden attack of monetary integrity. The dollar is unlikely to rise very far against gold.

Still, the current correction could take the price down another $100 and still be above the 50-week moving average. So hold onto your gold…and hold onto your hats. And why not take advantage of this dip in the gold price? You can protect your portfolio from the ups and downs of the rest of the market by adding our favorite yellow metal – for just a penny per ounce. See here for all the details…

Elsewhere in the news, we find that OPEC has said $200 oil is a possibility. It hit $120 over the weekend. And truckers are protesting high gasoline prices. In other places, mobs are protesting the high price of food. You might think that these people don’t realize how markets work…that they don’t know that prices aren’t set by popular demand. In fact, what they know is how government works. If you can make a big enough stink about something, the government will intervene in the markets on your behalf. In fact, governments are already controlling prices for fuel and for food all over the planet. But there is no problem so bad that government can’t make worse.

*** We are here in Rome trying to learn something – on your behalf, of course, dear reader. So far, what we’ve learned is that the Abruzzo and Barolo wines are rich, complex and smooth. The wines we’ve tried from Compania, on the other hand, seemed a little green…and a little sharp. But the Barolos tend to be expensive. Last night, our restaurant didn’t have a single one less than $150.

As for the world of money…we have found out what brought the empire down. Money, of course. They ran out of money. But that was only a part of the story…and not even the most interesting part.

“The empire held together pretty well,” explained our guide, “at long as it was controlled by Rome’s leading families, who shared the same culture and the same values. But as it expanded, it came into contact with more and more groups. And in order to protect the borders – which had become vast even before the empire itself was officially recognized under Augustus – more and more soldiers were required, and more and more money.

“I saw in the paper that you Americans opened a huge embassy in Iraq and that it was very expensive. Well, that’s what the Romans did too. They had garrisons all over the empire. And each one was expensive to maintain. The ‘cursus honorarium’ – it was the route to power and prestige, like today, we go to a good college and then get a job with a good corporation and then we might go into politics…well, then, young men who were ambitious had to go into the army and take their post at these distant garrisons. And then they began to bring people into the system from the outside…and spend their lives outside Rome. Many leaders were no longer from Rome and some rarely even came to Rome. And many of the soldiers weren’t Roman either.

“When the empire was still expanding, there was a lot of money coming into Rome. Whenever they conquered another city or another tribe, they brought in more gold, silver and slaves. But when the empire stopped expanding…they had the cost of maintaining the borders, but no source of revenue.”

Now, let us check in on today’s empire. Where does it get its money? How could it afford such an extravagant embassy – in an area where it has no real interests? How can it afford the trillion-dollar tag for the Iraq War? We will state the obvious: it too is running out of money. But unlike the era of Caesar Augustus Caesar or Romulus Augustus our modern government can conjure money out of thin air. It doesn’t even have to print it up on a piece of paper. It’s enough just to send an electronic transfer.

Now we will ask you a question, dear reader: What is an electronic transfer? Or, in an electronic transfer, what is transferred?

“Electrons,” you will answer. Or perhaps “information.” Or a “symbol of wealth”…something that represents money.

And here…back to penises for a moment. We once overhead a woman in a tour group in Paris, gazing at the Place de la Concorde. The leader had just informed her that the long, talk obelisk in the middle of the square might be considered a “phallic symbol.” She turned to her neighbor and asked:

“A phallic symbol of what?”

The electrons…or even the paper dollar…may be a symbol too. But a symbol of what?

More to come…

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning