Is this the beginning of a new bull market or just a last-gasp bear market rally? We just don’t know. We’ve got a hunch is all. According to value investing guru David Dremen, it doesn’t matter much, either.

Another of our favorite underground investors Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners is sounding the alarm on US Treasurys. He is also pessimistic about retail investors beating the market on their own.

All this week, we’ve been sounding the alarm of the so-called economic “green shoots.” These have now been exposed as being pure propaganda designed to lure investors back into stocks and to allow banks to recapitalize through share issuances at artificially elevated prices.

We’ve been musing on the fate of US debt for some time now. It’s no secret that we’re bearish on the fate of US Treasurys and the buck. (It’s no accident, dear reader, that your editor lives outside the US of A. We see the threat of inflation on the horizon, a dark and foreboding cloud, and we don’t like it one bit.) And the mixed signals from China and Russia on their Treasury holdings doesn’t make us sleep any easier at night.

Stocks, base metals and crude oil made further headway last week. Long-term US bond yields came down a bit following a successful 30-year bond auction and some pro-Treasurys comments from Japan’s finance minister. The dollar dipped while commodity-link currencies rallied.

Hedge fund legend Julian Robertson is betting the farm against long-dated US Treasurys. As Notes readers will be aware, we have been banging the drum on the vulnerability of long-dated US debt for over a month now. But Robertson, of Tiger Management fame, has a different way to make this short long-term Treasurys play (hat tip Market Folly).