Here in the United States, at a cost of a mere $3 billion, the “Cash-for-Clunkers” program appears to have given new hope to the U.S. auto industry.

But that new hope is destined to be short-lived.

It’s true that – in terms of value delivered for the money invested – “Cash for Clunkers” has eclipsed every other stimulus program that has been tried. But the program has a projected lifespan of only three months, meaning it can’t reverse the powerful global forces that are destined to turn the U.S. auto market from leader to laggard on the global stage.

Financial Crisis Fallout Reshapes Sector

Thanks to the financial crisis whose impact continues to be felt, worldwide automobile demand had dropped on an overall basis since 2008.

But regional differences are already emerging.

In the United States, for instance, the benchmark seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) finally jumped up past the 11-million mark in July after failing to eclipse the “breakeven point” of 10 million vehicles in any prior month this year. But the actual year-to-date sales of 5.81 million vehicles through July was still 33% below the 8.55 million that had been sold by that point in 2008, and is 67% below the all-time annual record of 17.4 million achieved in 2000 and 65% below the decade average of 16.4 million.

(Prior to the global financial crisis and accompanying recession – which prompted the U.S. auto industry to restructure and shift its breakeven point down to 10 million vehicles – the breakeven point was actually 16 million vehicle sales in a year. Below that point, several or all of the U.S. “Big Three” would be spinning their wheels in red ink.)

It’s a much different story abroad, however, where several markets are in a long-term growth mode. In India, for example, sales were up 31% on a year-over-year basis, while auto sales in China were an astonishing 70% above those of a year ago. Even if U.S. auto sales continue to improve, China’s automobile market may outsell its U.S. counterpart for a full year for the first time ever.

Granted, India’s auto market – around 2.5 million cars and light trucks a year – is still much smaller than either China or the United States. However, its growth makes it comparable to the Japanese or German markets, the next largest automobile markets after its U.S. and China counterparts.

Thus, global automobile sales are undergoing a major reorientation towards Asia and away from the United States and Europe. This will inevitably have a huge effect on the structure of the sector.

That’s why Asia will become the new Detroit – the future center of the automaking world.

Gone For Good?

In the United States, General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC have lost market share because of the government takeover. They are unlikely to get it back in spite of the debt costs they have relinquished through bankruptcy.

For Chrysler, the partnership with Fiat SpA (OTC ADR: FIATY) is unlikely to help much. Fiat is among the weakest of the European companies, and has not been competitive in the United States since the 1980s. The U.S. market is undoubtedly moving toward smaller automobiles. That trend is being “fueled” by the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for 2015 and probably by higher fuel taxes for environmental and budget reasons. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that the Chrysler/Fiat partnership will have the models to compete.

General Motors has the model range to compete in the United States. However, GM is doing much better in China, thanks largely to its joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., which expects to sell 1.4 million vehicles in 2009. Since GM is also selling Opel, its European operation, GM (NYSE:GRM) will find itself driven primarily by the demands of the Chinese market. Given the growth of that market, it will probably make the most economic sense for GM to become Chinese-owned. Politics may delay this, but probably only for a few years.

The United States’ One “Better Idea”

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) has picked up market share in the United States from GM and Chrysler’s problems. It should benefit both from “Cash for Clunkers,” and from the early stages of the U.S. market recovery. If GM and Chrysler continue to have difficulties, Ford may be in a good position here in the large U.S. market – as the most-effective manufacturer of the large automobiles that Americans continue to prefer – no matter what the government tells Ford to do.

Nor is that Ford’s only competitive advantage going forward. Ford Europe is big and viable enough to allow Ford to remain credible as a producer of smaller cars, primarily in the higher price brackets.

Outside the United States, European manufacturers will find themselves increasingly confined to the luxury end of the market. However, as global incomes rise and the newly wealthy become brand-conscious – particularly in the emerging economies of Asia – that upscale portion of the auto market should continue to be strong.

Japanese and Korean manufacturers will continue to dominate their domestic markets. And such companies as Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: HMC), Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE ADR: TM) and Kia Motors Corp., will also do well in the United States and Europe, and in countries where they have been able to establish viable local manufacturing operations, and lower labor costs.

But it will be the players from China and India who are destined to be the big market-share gainers on a global basis.

The New Leaders

For U.S. investors, India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE ADR: TTM) is the best known of the newly emerging global auto elite. Tata’s $2,500 for-the-masses “Nano” car has been well received. Over the long term, the Nano may expand the entry-level portion of the worldwide auto market, forcing other manufacturers to produce equivalent low-price models.

Indeed, the introduction of $2,500 cars may greatly expand the market’s size in India and other emerging markets, much as Ford’s Model T did after its introduction in 1908, or the Volkswagen AG (OTC ADR: VLKAY) VW Beetle did in the 1950s and 1960s.

Tata looked to be in financial difficulty after it bought the loss-making Jaguar and Land Rover brands in 2008 at the top of the market. However, the $300 million loan for its Jaguar Land Rover Unit announced on Aug. 10 gives Tata the room it needed to maneuver. Market growth in India, combined with the strength of its Tata Group parent now suggest that Tata Motors has the strength to survive without dismemberment.

The bottom line: Tata and its India-based competitors – Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (Mumbai: MSIL) and Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. (London: MHID) – as well as such top China carmakers as Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (still publicly owned), Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (OTC: GELYF) and Great Wall Motor Co. (OTC: GWLLF), are thus the companies that will see most growth in the automotive market of the decade to come.

By 2020, the global auto sector will look nothing like it does today. Given that most of the muscle will be in Asia, investors shouldn’t be surprised.

Source: Why Asia Will Supplant Detroit as the Global Center of the Auto Industry

The stock is still a far cry from its record-high level of $83.56, but is only 0% below its 52-week high of $53.46.  Much has changed since then, as the U.S. auto industry is no longer producing the 16 million cars it produced in 2007, nor the 13 million it managed to sell last year.  This year we are looking at some 10 million units sold, according to J.D. Power and Associates, the leading forecaster in the industry.

But there is encouraging news:  The very quick restructuring of both General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GRM) and Chrysler Group LLC, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize the financial markets, and the U.S. government’s fiscal stimulus plans have helped keep the economy from falling into a depression.  The Fed’s support for the auto industry included buying auto receivables under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) program, in order to restart this type of securitization.

Therefore, the paralysis of sales that we saw late last year, when the financial system froze and there was no financing available, has subsided and sales are increasing.  In fact, J.D. Power expects U.S. vehicle sales to increase to 11.5 million units next year, a full 15% pickup from projected 2009 levels.

In fact, we are already seeing an increase in auto sales already, thanks in no small part to the government’s Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), popularly known as “Cash for Clunkers.” So far, CARS has spent some $1.29 billion and Congress has expanded the original $1 billion authorization by another $2 billion.

Total light vehicle sales for July were just shy of 1 million units, a milestone the industry hasn’t topped since August 2008, mostly due to the program’s success.

This shot in the arm on the back of the general cost restructuring that Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is carrying out under Allan Mulally has already prompted Ford to increase production of its Focus model.

Similarly, Chrysler has reported that it is running two plants in overtime and a third shift at another plant just to keep up with demand.  And GM, which is seeing a huge rebound in sales, will add to this by increasing advertising spending and selling new cars on eBay Inc.’s (Nasdaq: EBAY) popular online auction Web site. Most of Wall Street is in “wait-and-see” mode, which gives us more of an incentive to jump in.  But the steel story is not just about cars.

Nucor will not only profit from the remaining $1.75 billion to be deployed through the government’s cash for clunkers program and the general improvement in market conditions, but on the pick-up in government construction in the United States that will result from U.S. President Barack Obama’s massive fiscal stimulus.

Additionally, the company will benefit from the already massive stimuli being deployed in China, Brazil, India and Russia.  And let us not forget Europe, where the European Central Bank will soon consider raising its benchmark lending rate to 1.25% from its current record low of 1% in order to prevent inflationary expectations from building up.

China will achieve more than 8% growth this year, driven by public spending, especially in construction and a strong pickup in auto sales  (up 63.6% in July from a year earlier) and domestic appliances.  All of these have a very high content of steel.

Similarly, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by more than 6%, barely down from last year’s 6.7% expansion. Auto sales in India jumped 18% last month.  Remember that India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE ADR: TTM) launched the cheapest car in the world last January and this is likely to work wonders in today’s budget-conscious market.

So what about Nucor itself?

The company reported a second quarter loss of $133 million, which improved over the first quarter’s $189 million loss.  But the key is that volumes are already turning around.

Volumes increased 11% in the second quarter, which allowed the company to increase its capacity utilization from 45% to a still very low 46%.

And this is where the upside lies.

In capital-intensive industries like steel, the very high fixed costs induce very large swings in profits, depending on volumes.  And not only did Nucor see its volumes pick up in the second quarter, the trend should continue accelerating in the third quarter and beyond, thanks to the recent burst in car sales and increased government infrastructure spending.

In addition, prior to the cash for clunkers program, Nucor announced it already expected to see an improvement in its third-quarter results. The company said that many of its customers had run their inventories too low and would need to replenish them just to meet demand.

So, at reporting time, investors could be very positively surprised by Nucor and many other companies in the sector, which will provoke many analysts to increase their stock targets.

And to make the whole story even better, we are counting on increasing inflationary expectations and a weaker dollar, which will continue to drive portfolio managers to hedge this risk in commodity stocks.

That means Nucor, which has been bumping into strong resistance levels since the beginning of January, but making higher lows in every subsequent correction, is likely to break out of its current range with an explosive rally before it even reports third-quarter earnings.

Nucor stock closed down 92 cents, or 1.93%, Friday at $46.79 a share.

Source: Nucor Corporation Will Get Is Due for a Boost from Government Spending

Without some big event or monolithic development coming down the road, there’s no reason for investors to care about these tiny companies.

You see, the majority of investors are only interested in making 5%–10% per year. That’s pretty much the maximum you can expect to gain if you are investing in blue chips. Here at Penny Sleuth, we view the stock market a little differently.

We want the money multipliers — double-, triple-, even quadruple-digit gains. For that to happen, we need some kind of spark to set our penny stocks apart from the rest. After all, there are currently over 6,000 to choose from.

So, what kind of catalysts can make a penny stock pop? Let’s look at a couple big ones:

• Commercialization — After years of research and development, and sometimes painstakingly long clinical trials and efficacy tests, there comes a time in any successful start up company’s life when it needs to actually manufacture and sell its products or services. Just take a look at what happened to Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE: TTM)…

As you might already know, this was the growth story of last year, and it continues to today. Tata is the Indian car giant that made its mark on the global economy, when it released the world’s cheapest car.

In March of this year, the company commercialized a new product. It started selling the Tata Nano in India. Investors were so excited by this car design, they started buying enormous amounts of Tata stock. Since the company started pre-selling the car, shares are up 165%.

• Buyout Candidates — Sometimes, it’s as simple as waiting for a larger competitor to buy the penny stock. When one company buys another, they agree on a price. Many times, that price is much higher than what the soon-to-be-purchased company’s share price is currently trading. This gives those shareholders an instant gain.

A few weeks ago, I discussed the consolidation of the soda industry. Both PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) and Coca-Cola Inc. (NYSE: KO) are buying out their bottling operations to save on expenses and double spending.

Pepsi is in the process of buying its two largest bottlers: PepsiAmericas and Pepsi Bottling Group. Shares of both of these companies popped more than 22% the day it was announced. From their March lows, PepsiAmericas is up 67% and Pepsi Bottling Group is up 94%.

• Legal Battles — The last of the major catalysts is court rulings. In many cases, a simple ruling can make or break a penny stock. Hardly any company has been entrenched in the courtroom like TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO).

We wrote about TiVo back in December 2007. Its revolutionary digital recording technology is both a huge moneymaker and a legal nightmare. You see, plenty of other competitors claim rights to certain patents TiVo profits from.

It takes a tech geek to decipher the differences between most of its intellectual properties, which isn’t usually a prerequisite for a judge. For the last five years, TiVo has been tied up in court with its competitor EchoStar Communications Corp (NASDAQ:SATS), now part of Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ:DISH), over a patent dispute. The court finally ruled in favor of TiVo, rewarding the company $103 million plus interest.

Upon the day of the ruling, shares of TiVo jumped 53%. This gain sent TiVo’s stock over $11 per share and out of penny stock land. That just a drop in the bucket of what a lawsuit ruling can do for a company. Imagine what $103-plus can do for an even smaller company…

These are just four types of things to consider when thinking about buying a penny stock. But even if you do have the perfect catalyst lined up, that’s only the beginning.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

Source: How to Tell When a Penny Stock Will Pop

The Indian market zoomed 17% on Monday on the news that the Congress Party had been re-elected with an increased majority. It’s certainly true that some of the other alternatives – for example a weak leftist Third Force coalition including the spectacularly corrupt Mayawati Kumari (India’s richest politician, a keenly fought title) – would have been worse.

Nevertheless, you have to remember that the Congress Party (also known as the India National Congress, and referred to by its initials, INC) is responsible for most of India’s woes, both recently and in the 60 years since independence, and that putting it back into power is unlikely to bring much of a step forward – economically speaking.

Condemned to Slow Growth

For more than 40 years after independence – albeit with one short exception – India was ruled by the Congress party and condemned to slow economic growth. Then, after 1991, then finance minister Manmohan Singh began opening up the economy. However, growth had already slowed again in the mid 1990s and it was only under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998-2004 that India removed many of its longstanding statist obstacles to growth, and began to enjoy economic growth rates comparable to those of China.

The Vajpayee government was rejected by the Indian electorate in 2004, in a stunning act of electoral ingratitude second only to Britain’s shocking 1945 rejection of Winston Churchill, who had helped engineer the Allied victory in World War II.

Since 2004, India’s Congress Party has been back in power under Singh – this time as prime minister – in a coalition with the left. The nation’s leadership has made endless promises of reform, but has really accomplished very little. Economic growth has continued to be rapid, largely because of the Vajpayee government’s reforms, which were particularly extensive during that administration’s last two years in power in 2002-2004. The Congress Party’s main achievements were run-ups in both public spending and the fiscal deficit, the latter of which seems likely to run at a rate of about 12% of gross domestic product (GDP) for the 2009-2010 period – if state deficits are included.

By the 2009 election, Vajpayee had retired, and his successor as BJP leader – L.K. Advani – was both old and associated with the party’s Hindu nationalist wing, so it’s not surprising that the BJP failed to make progress. The collapse of support in the election for the mostly leftist third parties is itself a good sign, making a swing back to the BJP under new leadership more likely whenever the next election occurs, probably in 2014.

In the five intervening years until that happens, India will have to endure a Congress Party government, either under current Prime Minister Singh, or possibly under newcomer Rahul Gandhi – grandson of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, which would make him the latest member of the Nehru/Gandhi dynasty to hold that office.

Don’t Expect Reforms

Congress’ claim to reformism becomes especially thin when you look at the party’s allies. For example, West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress led the violent opposition to Tata Motors Ltd.’s (NYSE ADR: TTM) “Nano” automobile plant in that state. Tata had managed to do a deal with Bengal’s Communist state government to produce the revolutionary $2,000 car, but the Trinamool Congress was able to force Tata to relocate the plant to Gujarat at a cost of more than $500 million, delaying the full production of the Nano by more than a year. In the recent elections, Trinamool, in alliance with the national Congress Party, was rewarded with 26 of West Bengal’s 42 parliamentary seats, and its leadership will doubtless be part of the new government.

The new government’s policy is thus unlikely to be very reformist, especially as it rejoices in the support of the egregious Mayawati. In welcoming the election win, Prime Minister Singh indicated further areas where India’s public spending and transfer payments needed to be increased, with no suggestion that privatization or reining back the immense public-sector deficit were a priority. It’s thus likely that the Indian government will continue as an ever-increasing drag on the economy, with a funding crisis possible if public spending increases too much.

In such an environment, it is unlikely that India’s 8% average growth rate of the last five years can continue; the average of the next five years is much more likely to be in the 4% to 5% range, possibly with an acute foreign exchange crisis at some point. There’s no question that India’s stock market – trading at a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 20 – is expecting much better than this. That means it’s time to step back.

When – and How – to Make Your Play

Once the euphoria has dissipated, and the Indian market has dropped at least 30% from its current level, to below 10,000 on the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex Index, Indian shares will once again be worth looking at, if only because of the country’s immense long-term-growth potential – an upside great enough to overcome even the immense drag of most of its governmental shortcomings.

At that point, the heavy capital investors such as Tata Motors should be avoided, because of the unpredictability of capital availability in a capital market whose savings can be sucked into the government’s immense maw. Look instead at such non-capital-intensive exporters (the exchange rate is likely to remain relatively weak) as the software company Infosys Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq ADR: INFY), or global pharmaceuticals producer Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (NYSE ADR: RDY).

Both stocks are currently somewhat expensive, with Infosys trading at about 18 times the consensus analyst estimate for forward earnings, and Dr. Reddy’s roughly 14 times. But both stocks should be purchased for long-term growth during periods when investor enthusiasm for the Indian market has had a chance to cool down.

Source:  With India, Long-Term Profit Potential Trumps Near-Term Concerns

• Abu Dhabi’s state-controlled International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) said it would buy a 9.1% stake in the German automaker Daimler AG (DAI) for almost $2.72 billion (2 billion euros). It also pumped $1.41 billion into Aabar Investment PJSC, giving the Middle East emirate majority control in the IPIC, Reuters reported.

• Tata Motors Ltd. (ADR: TTM) announced it will begin sales of the Nano, the world’s cheapest car. It will accept bookings for the new car from April 9 and April 25, and customers will have to pay full price (about $2,000) as a deposit, Bloomberg reported.

• Walgreen Co. (WAG) took reconstruction charges and spent more promoting nonprescription items in its second-fiscal quarter ended Feb. 28, leading to a profit of $640 million, or 65 cents per share. The earnings beat expectations, and Morningstar Senior Analyst Mitch Corwin told Reuters that he believes the company will “emerge from this downturn a better firm.”

• U.S. banks now face increasing loan delinquencies from owners of skyscrapers and shopping malls, as commercial property prices plummet. Commercial property prices are down almost 20% in the past year, and with the global recession worsening, there’s “significant stress” in the market, William Schwartz, a credit analyst at DBRS Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg. The country’s 10 biggest banks have $327.6 billion in commercial mortgages, which face a wave of defaults as office vacancies grow and retailers and casinos go bankrupt.

• Gannett Co Inc. (GCI) will force employees to take a new round of furloughs in April, May and June to save money as newspaper advertising revenue slides. Gannett was among the first U.S. newspaper publishers to furlough workers to cut costs as ad revenue sinks and people forsake printed papers to get free news on the Internet. The furloughs come after a one-week unpaid leave saved the company $20 million, according to a memo from a company executive obtained by Reuters.

• Oil prices hit their highest level in nearly three months yesterday (Monday) as a U.S. plan to purge banks of toxic assets triggered a rally on Wall Street, Reuters reported. U.S. crude rose $1.73 to settle at $53.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after climbing as high as $54.05, its highest price since December 1. London Brent crude rose $2.25 to $53.47. Dealers said the bank plan could brighten the outlook for global business and consumer energy demand.

• TreeHouse Foods Inc. (THS), whose largest customer is Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), said the recession hasn’t stalled plans to make “substantial” acquisitions and reach $2 billion in sales in a consolidating private-label food industry, Bloomberg reported. The recession has spurred growth in  private-label goods from name brands as consumers look for ways to save money. Treehouse, whose roots trace back to Keebler elves, has gained 24% in the past 12 months, compared with a 39% drop in the Standard & Poor’s Smallcap 600 Index (IJR).

Source: Global Investment News Briefs Tuesday March 24, 2009

A month ago, I asked my colleagues at TFN to think about the year ahead… the events that will shape the year both politically and financially. In short, to come up with realistic “Predictions for 2009″. As history is fast-forwarding, some of these events have already taken place. Others look increasingly probable… and not half as far out as they appeared just a month ago.

Here they are, in no particular order

*** Dollar hits parity against euro by June 2009.

*** Oil bottoms at $12 per barrel by April 2009.

*** Gold falls to $500 as Indian economy crashes and Dubai abandons spending spree.

*** Russian troops wearing Gazprom uniforms invade Ukraine to “protect” natural gas pipeline. The Russian stock market collapses. Three European energy stocks soar. (Yes, there’s still time to buy!)

*** US inflation dips to zero; interest rates too.

*** US unemployment hits 10% by January, 15% by April

*** Despite $25 billion in loans, GM files for bankruptcy

*** Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Bahrain abandon building projects for lack of credit and crashing oil revs. “Tower of Babel Syndrome”

*** China hit by bad loan scandal, excessive government spending, faltering exports, rampant inflation, civil unrest

*** China turns aggressive toward Taiwan, buoyed by pacifist White House

*** Australia and Canada have credit rating slashed, economies hit hard; currencies plummet

*** Junior mining companies, green energy tech, and marginal oil exploration (shale, sands, deep sea) go bankrupt by the hundreds

*** France jockeys for superpower position within EU

*** Major terrorist attack on US soil; Obama declares national emergency, establishes National Security Force

*** MRSA epidemic turns deadly

*** The healthcare industry will be burdened by increasing costs and regulations. But this news has been discounted for several months. Instead of trying to pick the winners and the losers in the industry, play a sector-wide ETF likes VHT and XLV. Short Big Pharma as companies are hit by government-backed liability suits and new influence of the trial lawyer lobby; watch anti-business courts penalize companies for research and development.

*** Obama will raise the cap gains rate to 30%, knocking out new capital inflows into market, triggering stampede of asset sales as investors rush to avoid Obama’s doubling of the tax rates next year.

***US Economy turns European: Unemployment extends towards double-digit territory. Wages drop and Washington creates massive infrastructure spending initiatives and corporate incentives to bring manufacturing back within American borders. Efforts fail because no company would want to do major capital investments in a country w/ 60+% income taxes, unfirable workers, compulsory health insurance even for temps. Despite showcase infrastructure projects, lack of community tax base and dying private initiatibve, American cities start looking like East Baltimore.

***  Tata Motors aready bought Jaguar & Range Rover: Maybe now it will buy Ford or GM? Detroit gets its bailout, but it is not enough to keep GM from asking for more. The core assets of the company are bought by a better-positioned rival like Volkswagen and its pension burden is dumped on the federal government. Car dealerships, at least the ones still around, are empty. You have to blow the dust off the windshield to see the sticker price. Major dealers like AN go bankrupt as they are too big to hide from the storm.

***US Auto parts industry goes bankrupt as its main customers wither. Foreign manufactures  like Wonder Auto thrive as used cars require increased maintenance.

*** Churches will see greatly increased attendance. Alcoholism and drug abuse will rise. Crime will be out of control in many suburban neighborhoods (racial tensions). Buy a gun and invest in VICEX. Casinos go broke for lack of travel, penny-ante online gambling runs rampant.

*** The value of the American dollar continues to gain strength. Boeing sees large forex bonus as it gets back in business. U.S. exporters are reeling from the double hit of global recession and increased cost to overseas customers.

*** No action is  taken against Iran, even during a military attack on Israel. The withdrawal from Iraq will be rapid, followed by withdrawal from Afghanistan and abandonment of the region to Taliban, Russia & China. Millions of dead in subsequent Iraqi civil war. Nobel Prize for Peace 2010 goes to Obama & Ahmadinejad as Shiites commit genocide in Iraq.

Source: Major Financial Events and Developments of 2009

Our closed recommendations (i.e., stock recommendations with specific buy and sell recommendations), we recorded average gains of 24.1%, with an average holding period of 27 days.

Some gains in particular were truly stellar…

· 50.1% on Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (NASDAQ:SWHC)
· 87.1% on National City (NYSE:NCC) Jan 2.5 calls
· 79.6% on Boeing (NYSE:BA) Feb 55 puts
· 190% on Boeing Aug 90 calls
· 55.5% on Rex Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:REXX)

But now it’s time to throw in the towel on some duds…

The shipping sector sank with the global recession. If you are still holding any, it’s time to unload shares of:

· China COSCO Holding (PINK:CICOF)
· Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX)

Energy explorers’ and drillers’ share prices have probed new depths of late with oil prices hovering around $50. Ditch any shares you might have of:

· Grand Tierra Energy Inc. (AMEX:GTE)
· Parker Drilling Company (NYSE:PKD)
· Royal Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROYL)
· Pyramid Oil Company (AMEX:PDO)

With the delay in the production of the Nano continuing to impact stock price, let’s put the breaks on this Indian carmaker. Let go of any shares you might have of:

· Tata Motors (NYSE:TTM)

As gold fluctuates, this Canadian/Chinese gold miner is no longer a good investment. Lose any shares you might have of:

· Jinshan Gold Mines Inc. (TSE:JIN)

We suggested that readers with the stomach for risk might want to pick up shares of this troubled banker in case of a buyout. No such luck. Dump any shares you might have of:

· IndyMac Bancorp, Inc. (OTC:IDMCQ)

A great seasonal brew and a recession didn’t help this beer maker. If it’s in your portfolio, sell:

· Craft Brewers Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOK)

Not that any of those stocks represent bad companies. Far from it! If this were a normal market environment, we’d have no problems holding on to most of them. But reason and rationality have departed from the markets… and it might take months or even years for the prices of these stocks to even get close to our original buying range.

Source: Drop these losers from your portfolio

The Reserve Bank of India cut its overnight lending rate from 9% to 8%, according to a government statement issued in Mumbai yesterday. The “surprise move” that came days before a regularly scheduled meeting of its policy board came after India’s central bank reduced the cash reserve ratio by 2.5 percentage points to 6.5% – retroactive to Oct. 11, Bloomberg News and MarketWatch.com both reported.

The so-called “repurchase rate” is the discount rate at which India’s central bank lends money to commercial banks to infuse liquidity into the market. India’s rupee weakened while bonds reversed losses after the central bank’s announcement. The Bombay Stock Exchange rose 2.5% for the day – closing at 10,223.09 – although it jumped as high as 5.6%, BBC News reported. On Friday, India’s key stock index fell to its lowest close since June 2006.

“By lowering rates, thereby liquefying the system and offering stimulus to deflect slowing growth, India may be ahead of the curve for the first time in making the correct monetary policy decisions to prevent a recession which it cannot afford,” said Rahemtulla, a frequent Money Morning contributor who serves as the editor of such financial publications as The Smart Profits Report and the Xcelerated Profits Report.

In late May 2007, the Bombay exchange became the third emerging stock market after China and Russia to surpass $1 trillion in market value – a surge that was helped at the time by the nation’s fastest economic growth in six decades, a flood of foreign investment and a strengthening rupee, Bloomberg reported at the time. On the day it achieved that milestone, the 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, closed at 14,508.21 – 1% below its then-record high.

“India has been one of the [world’s] largest recipients of foreign direct investment, which accounted for the boom in the stock market over the past five years,” Rahemtulla said.

Clear Fears

India today clearly fears that the ongoing turmoil in the worldwide credit markets remains a threat to drop much of the global economy into a planet-wide recession. China’s economic growth slumped to a five-year low last quarter and Vietnam reduced borrowing costs yesterday, as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and UBS AG (UBS) said the world economy is sliding into its first recession since 2001.

“A 100-basis-point cut is an indirect admission that not all is ‘hunky dory’ with the India growth story,” Nandkumar Surti, chief financial officer at JPMorgan Asset Management India Pvt. Bank in Mumbai, told Bloomberg. “One way to look at it is that the global problem has begun to affect us.”

Fluctuations in India’s bond yields this month were the widest in more than five years as the central bank took steps to ease a liquidity crunch. India Reserve Bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao will review his monetary policy on Friday. Ironically, just one day after the central bank cut rates for the first time in four years, an employee strike at the Reserve Bank of India that started yesterday shut down bond trading in Mumbai, meaning traders at primary dealers and banks were unable to bet on additional interest-rate reductions, according to a Bloomberg report.

About 25,000 employees of the central bank walked off their jobs to demand higher pensions. Subbarao ordered the surprise rate cut to shield India from the global financial crisis that was touched off by the collapse of the U.S. housing market.

The near-collapse of the banking systems in both the United States and Europe this month prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to throttle its worldwide growth forecast for 2009 from an earlier estimate of 3.9% all the way back to 3.0% — a point the IMF itself has labeled as the dividing line between global expansion and a global recession.

After growing at an estimated rate of 9.3% in 2007, the IMF says the growth rate of the Indian economy may slow to 7.9% this year and all the way down to 6.9% next year.

Subbarao, India’s 22nd central bank governor – and who took office just last month – is scheduled to release his first quarterly monetary policy statement on Friday. He can likely afford to reverse four years of tighter credit as declining commodities prices ease inflationary pressures.

India’s key wholesale price inflation number slowed more than economists expected to 11.44% in the week through to Oct. 4 – a four-month low. Crude oil prices have been cut in half since their peak in July – a reality that’s actually forcing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to hold an emergency meeting on Friday, Money Morning reported yesterday. U.S. oil prices, which hit a record of $147.27 a barrel in July, have since plunged by more than 50%, actually hitting a 16-month low of $68.57 last week. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities dropped to its lowest in four years on Oct. 17.

“We expect a further reduction in wholesale price inflation in the next two months,” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told lawmakers in parliament yesterday. “Nevertheless, we must be prepared for a temporary slowdown in the Indian economy. Increased public expenditure is an important part of the solution.”

Singh had been under mounting pressure to speak publicly about the issues facing India’s financial markets. And with good reason: India’s stock market has lost more than half its value this year, the rupee has fallen to new lows and cash flow problems have crippled banks – leading to jitters among investors, The BBC reported.

India’s commerce minister, Kamal Nath, said he was confident India could remain a strong force on the economic stage and told The BBC that the country’s growth rate was “not as yet” being threatened: Unlike its U.S. counterpart, none of India’s banks have gone bust due to the Asian country’s “stricter norms,” Nath told Britain’s well-known global broadcaster

Also key: Foreign-direct investment remains strong, and export growth soared 31% in September.

That export growth could pose a problem, said Rahemtulla, the newsletter editor.

“India’s economy, while insulated somewhat from the global crisis because of its minimal reliance on outside trade, may still suffer from the current malaise because of its growing export sector,” Rahemtulla said. “The rate cuts, which will likely be followed by more cuts, are being made to ensure India’s competitiveness by allowing rupee depreciation, which helps its strong outsourcing and tech sectors.”

That, in turn, will directly benefit such companies as Infosys Technologies Ltd. (ADR: INFY). Wipro Ltd. (ADR: WIT), Tata Motors Ltd. (ADR: TTM) and global IT-services provider Satyam Computer (ADR: SAY), Rahemtulla said.

Tata Motors recently gained global fame when it introduced a fully functional $2,500 car called the “Nano” for the India market.

Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram asked India’s parliament for approval to spend an additional $49 billion (2.4 trillion rupees) on rural jobs, food and oil subsidies in the year ending March 31 to boost the economy, which has advanced at a record 8.8% annual clip since 2004, according to Bloomberg.

India’s leadership “must have been worried about global growth, big economies and [the fact that other key economies in] the region [are] slowing,” Sailesh Jha, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital (ADR: BCS) in Singapore, told Bloomberg yesterday, referring to gross domestic product (GDP) report for China.

Hit “The BRICs” for Superior Profits?

Although central banks in the United States and Europe have pared interest rates in an attempt to avoid a worldwide recession, only India and China among the so-called “BRIC” economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China have joined global policymakers in that battle. Russia lowered its reserve requirement for the second time in a month, while Brazil reduced the measure Oct. 13 for the fourth time in three weeks.

Back on Oct. 8, easing inflationary pressures in China enabled that nation’s central bank to pare interest rates for the second time in three weeks. It reduced the one-year lending rate from 7.2% to 6.93% on the same day that the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and three others lowered rates in an unprecedented coordinated worldwide action. China also reduced the proportion of deposits that lenders must set aside as reserves by 0.5 percentage points.

China’s economy, the biggest contributor to global growth, zoomed along at a 9% clip in the third quarter, that country’s statistics bureau announced yesterday.

In a report released last week, the Macquarie Research unit of Macquarie Group Ltd. said that Indian real-estate developers are facing a shortage of funds, which may slow demand for steel, cement and transportation products and services.

“The capital crunch has hit the real estate sector very hard,” Macquarie analysts Unmesh Sharma and Bharat Rathi said. “We believe the tightness will continue for a few more months, given the difficulty in raising capital through bank debt, equity markets and (more recently) private equity.”

The decline in demand is already showing in India. The nation’s output at factories, utilities and mines rose 1.3% in August from a year earlier, after a revised 7.4% gain in July, as rising borrowing costs have dampened demand from consumers.

Rajeev Malik, a regional economist with the Macquarie Group in Singapore, recently said that the “downside risks to India’s growth have increased, while the upside risks to inflation have receded. We expect inflation to continue improving, thereby facilitating a shift in the RBI’s monetary stance.”

Source: With its Surprise Interest-Rate Cut, India Puts Itself “Ahead of the Curve,” India Expert Rahemtulla Says

Both stocks have been hammered year-to-date, with Ford shares having plunged over 63% and GM shares down a staggering 74%. Declining sales have seen the automakers’ stocks touch lows not seen in decades.

Waning U.S. consumer spending and high oil prices have hit domestic automakers that have long relied on large trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) as the cornerstones of their product offerings. U.S. firms have been slower than their foreign counterparts, such as Toyota Motor Corp. (ADR: TM), in adopting the now popular fuel-efficient hybrids and smaller car models.

But both GM and Ford have said that bankruptcy is not an option they will consider. The automakers are aggressively pursuing two different paths to try to return to profitability. While GM seeks out a potential merger, Ford is selling off assets.

GM and Chrysler in Talks: WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that GM has had talks with private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP over a possible sale of the hedge fund firm’s 80.1% stake in Chrysler LLC. In addition to its marquee Chrysler brand, the automaker produces the Dodge and Jeep lines.

However, Chrysler is the weakest of Detroit’s “Big Three” and its line of Dodge Ram pick-ups and Jeep SUVs have been poor sellers in the current economic environment, which casts doubt on the validity of that report.

“Ford and even GM have been trying to shed unprofitable brands, so why would CEO Rick Wagoner go out and purchase brands that are struggling?” David Silver, an analyst at Wall Street Strategies Inc. (OTC: WSSSQ), told MarketWatch. “Chrysler is burning through cash at an alarming rate, and that coupled with GM’s cash burn would just push GM closer to disaster.”

Efraim Levy of Standard & Poor’s Equity Research agreed that a merger might not be the best route to take for beleaguered GM.

“Given the marketplace and restructuring challenges faced by the automakers, we think a merger would be counterproductive,” Levy said, MarketWatch reported. “On the other hand, if GM would get access to Cerberus’s capital, we could see positives for the automaker.”

Labor unions have also expressed their discomfort with a possible deal between GM and Chrysler would be beneficial.

“We have not had any discussions formally with any of the companies,” United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger said yesterday on Detroit radio station WWJ, Bloomberg News reported. “I personally would not want to see anything that would result in a consolidation that would mean the elimination of additional jobs.”

But with U.S. auto sales at 15-year lows, job cuts at automakers are likely to occur with or without a potential merger, which could lead to eventual capitulation from the union.

“I think you could convince them,” David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan, said of the unions, Bloomberg reported. “Profitability over the long term is the only job security these guys have.”

Another Ford Divestiture

GM approached Ford about a potential merger, as well, according to news reports, but the company founded by automobile pioneer Henry Ford is determined to go it alone.

After having already sold Land Rover and Jaguar to Indian carmaker Tata Motors Ltd. (ADR: TTM) for $2.3 billion, Ford is now shopping its one-third stake in Japan’s Mazda Motor Corp. (PINK: MZDAF). Ford owns approximately 33.4% of Mazda and would like to sell a 20% share of the Japanese automaker.

And the buyer is likely to be one of Japan’s own, as Mazada’s main bank Sumitomo Mitsui plans to “do whatever they can to prevent this from happening” if Ford selects an unwelcome buyer, according to Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR: CS) analyst Koji Endo, BusinessWeek reported.

Two leading Japanese trading houses, Sumitomo Corp. and Itochu Corp., are the most interested bidders at the moment. It seems likely one of the two will come out on top as the winner for the Mazda stake.

Ford could certainly use the cash and the sale could also have benefits for Mazda, according to Takaki Nakanishi, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) analyst. Nakanishi feels the sale will allow Mazda more freedom in decision-making, while mainting its close ties to Ford.

“The synergy between the two companies is very significant, but we think they can produce this synergy without the management control inherent in its parent-subsidiary relationship,” Nakanishi said in a research note dated yesterday, Reuters reported.

Source: GM and Ford Choose Different Routes to Return to Profitability

POLITICS & ECONOMICS

Last week it was the Democrats, this week the Republicans. The GOP convention in St Paul, Minnesota was a tale of two speeches. The first: a witty, spikey discourse by VP candidate Sarah Palin. It was watched by an estimated 40 million on tv, just about matching the audience for Barack Obama a week earlier.

It also upstaged her (potential) future boss, which is always a dangerous thing to do, let alone when the White House is at stake. “McCain’s Speech is Universally Panned“reads the Guardian headline over in Britain, as it gauged the media’s reaction to the Republican candidate’s acceptance speech. While Republicans will hardly worry about the response of a liberal, foreign daily, the dearth of McCain coverage relative to Palin is a worry for them.

If the Palin ticket was meant to make people (and the media) sit up and take notice, it seems to have worked. The Alaskan Governor and ‘hockey mom’ pulled no punches as she tore into Barack Obama and the Washington ‘elite’. CBS News said that “Palin-Mania” was sweeping the nation. Her speech has already drawn comparisons with Obama’s own 2004 breakthrough, and prompted whipsers of ‘the new Reagan’ in Republican corridors.

But when the novelty wears off, what will be left? An economic and energy crisis, for sure.

Money Morning’s Martin Hutchinson says Palin’s reputation as a fighter against government waste should reassure investors over public finances. He also thinks she is a breath of fresh air in an otherwise tired energy debate.

OIL & ENERGY

Taipan Daily’s Justice Litle thinks alternative energy will be the winner, regardless of who wins the election. “An Obama administration will be deeply beholden to the “greens” on multiple levels… geopolitically speaking, a McCain White House is far more likely to err on the side of aggression [with Russia, especially]… which, in turn, would send the price of oil climbing back towards $150 as the fear premium heats up”.

Speaking of expensive fuel, the “big 3″ automakers in Detroit have had the hell of a year so far. Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock is down 34.5% since January 1, General Motors (NYSE: GM) has slumped 57%. Chysler’s U.S. sales tumbled 34.5% y-o-y in August.

All three are strapped for cash, and like any good sibling, they are asking Big Daddy (the Fed) for a $50 billion handout, using his unprecedented generosity towards the older sibling (Wall Street) as leverage. They argue that the capitol is essential to the development of new, cleaner hybrid cars. But not everyone can be the golden child of the family.

Steven Pearlstein from the Washington Post has harsh words. “Not only are the Big Three not deserving, but to help them out of their current predicament would also set a lousy precedent in a market-driven economy where the possibility of earning great wealth is supposed to be balanced against the possibility of failure.”

Bill Bonner says the Fed’s easy credit policies may have set off a dangerous ripple effect in the economy. After all, when times are hard, everyone wants pocket money…

EMERGING MARKETS

Hard times have hit India’s Tata Motors (TTM ). The news this week was that Tata motor’s stock has plunged 48.76% over the past 52 weeks. In the West Bengal area Singur, farmers who gave over 1000 acres of their land to Tata to build a factory have been protesting for weeks now.

Jason Simpkins of Money Morning tells us that “Earlier this week, Sushen Santra, a 65-year old resident of the Joymollah village who earlier had willingly forfeited his land to the Singur project, committed suicide after hearing the Tata Group would relocate. Three of Santra’s sons were employed by Tata to work in the project area. ‘My father came to know from a news channel last night that the Tata factory would be shifted out of Singur.’ ” “There’s a growing fear in the region that if Tata moves out of West Bengal, the prospect of luring future industrial or technological projects will be put in jeopardy.”

Writing for Contrarian Profits, Irwin Greenstein point out that Tata will have to keep an eye out on China. “Now, another problem is coming fast in the rearview mirror of Tata Motors: Chinese car makers. There are over 40 car manufacturers in China today. Combined, they could launch a major assault on Tata’s core markets.”

We hope you had a great weekend!

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Contrarian Profits Staff

Marc & Julie