Oddly, the action reminds me of my first few days as a fishing guide. There I was, a typical East Coast grad student with a vision and not much of a plan.

As I dropped my bags on the dock outside the state’s southernmost airport, I used the change in my pocket to dial my only contact in the 49th state. She did not answer. In fact her phone was disconnected.

Great… 4,000 miles from home and stranded in the rain.

I must have looked lost because a bushy bearded that most resembled the kind I’m used to see begging for change, asked me where I was headed. I told him some basic details and he grabbed my bags.

With nothing to lose, I followed.

Within an hour, I was strapped into a floatplane cruising 750 feet above what would turn out to be my new home for the next two years.

On the dock, I saw a figure.

Little did I know it would be the girl I would marry and who is now eagerly counting down the last four months until she becomes a mother.

For me, uncertainty led to great things. I see much the same for the country today.

Over the last six months, the economic data has told us very little. For the last several quarters, we’ve been told to “wait for next month’s figures.”  Or we heard “this time next year, things are going to be better.”

So far, even with the help of massive stimulus and governmental manipulation, we’ve done little more than tread water. Instead of following the creepy guy on the dock, we’re waiting around for somebody familiar to pick up the phone.

Until, that is, today. Look at the market. It’s in crazy rough shape, cutting nearly two percent from the top indices.

At first glance, it’s horrifying.

But with some careful studying and a keen eye for what it all means, it is fantastic news. Right now, we’re circling over our destination and are closer than ever to uncovering our fate.

For America, until last night, the question was if the country’s citizens would roll over and let a government force us into something highly unpopular. Today, we know democracy still rules and the political power players are laying flat on their butts from a catastrophic blow.

They may get back up and throw a few more punches our way, but they will never have the deadly dangerous momentum they had just 48 hours ago.

For the nation’s economy – here’s the truly good news – a strong dollar and slipping interest rates proves we remain the beacon of safety for global investors. China may be a powerhouse, but when things get tough, we always run to those we trust the most.

As commodity prices plummet today, the prices you and I pay for just about everything from heating oil to creamed corn will follow. Just as inflation threatened to crimp our shot at growth, Mother Economy proves her ability to create equilibrium.

If all of this is sounding different than what you are hearing on TV or reading in the rags, you’re right. It is different. It’s the contrarian’s take. When everybody is fleeing for the exits, we’re holding the door open, eagerly waiting to take what they left behind.

It’s a good idea to be buying what these folks are selling today.

***As a guy that has spent thousands of hours on the nation’s coastal waterways, I have had my share of run-ins with the Coast Guard – all of them good.

To prove that the core of this nation remains strong and true, I have included a press release my friends at the Coast Guard emailed me this morning. It’s a small glimpse of what Americans are doing to help their global brothers in trouble.

Here it is:

The first U.S. asset to arrive on scene to Haiti after the earthquake remains engaged in Haitian relief operations one week later.

The Portsmouth based Coast Guard Cutter Forward arrived off Port au Prince Jan. 13, at about 8 a.m. The crew provided air traffic control for military aircraft due to the damaged and inoperable control tower at Toussaint Louverture International Airport. They also began assessing the port, and ferrying supplies and injured people with their small boat and helicopter.

One of their primary missions was to pave the way for supplies to be delivered into the port of Cap Hatien. They began assessing the port and noted significant damage and destruction of its infrastructure adding to the difficulty of bringing aid to the country.  The Detroit based MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew, that deployed with the Forward, flew over some of the roadways leaving the port and verified that relief efforts delivered to Cap Haitien can be trucked to Port au Prince. They also observed multiple oil, fuel and sewage spills in the area.

Monday they were able to perform medical evacuations with their helicopter from the Killick Haitian Coast Guard base to the Sacred Heart Hospital in Milot.

“The flight mechanic talked about two children on the first flight who wanted to hold his hand for comfort,” said Cdr. Diane Durham, the commanding officer of the Forward.

“I am glad to be a part of the relief efforts in Haiti. It is a life changing experience and is the reason I joined the Coast Guard. It feels good to be part of something bigger than myself,” said Fireman Kendall Wilson, a crewmember aboard the Forward.

The Coast Guard Cutter Forward deployed with Maritime Intelligence Support Team 0410 and an MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew from Air Station Detroit.

In total, the Coast Guard has medically transported 29 critically injured U.S. Embassy personnel out of Haiti, evacuated approximately 662 American citizens and delivered 512 urban search and rescue team members to Port au Prince.

The Coast Guard will continue to support the massive relief effort in Haiti by providing humanitarian assistance to Haitian survivors, evacuating critically injured U.S. personnel and evacuating U.S. citizens from Haiti. The complexities crews face with this massive relief operation are immense due to the magnitude of damage to Haiti’s infrastructure.

Additional Coast Guard assets responding to the area are:

- An HC-144A Ocean Sentry aircraft from Coast Guard Aviation Training Center, Mobile, Ala.
- An HC-130J Hercules fixed-wing aircraft from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City, N.C.
- An HC-130 Hercules fixed-wing aircraft from Coast Guard Air Station Sacramento, Calif.
- Two HC-130 Hercules fixed-wing aircraft from Barber’s Point, Hawaii.
- Two MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crews. They are from the Coast Guard HITRON based in Jacksonville, Fla., and Coast Guard Air Station Detroit, Mich.
-Two HU-25 Falcon jet crews from Coast Guard Air Station Miami, Fla.
-The Coast Guard Cutter Valiant, a 210-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Miami, Fla.
-The Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Key West, Fla.
- The Coast Guard Cutter Tahoma, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Portsmouth, N.H.
- The Coast Guard Cutter Oak, a 225-foot seagoing buoy tender homeported in Charleston, S.C.

That’s the kind of showing that makes me proud to be an American, even if I am contrary.

Nothing talks in Washington any louder than money. Today, the big spenders are betting against the land of the free and the home of the brave. But of course, if you’ve been paying attention, the action is no surprise.

If you invested in United States treasuries over the last year, you bought into the worst performing sovereign debt across the globe. Thanks to the Obama administration’s unending yearning to artificially pull the nation’s GDP into positive territory, investors are quickly raising their nose to the country’s ever-growing pile of debt.

In all of 2009, the Treasury Department received loans of $2.1 trillion from the world’s investors. It was an extraordinary year of borrowing that took the nation’s debt liability from $5.80 trillion to $7.17 trillion at the end of November.

Of course, with unemployment likely to show yet another rise later this week and some 45,000 businesses tossing in the towel over the last twelve months, Obama is not done spending yet.

Many experts believe 2010 will mirror the borrowing habits of 2009, when Geithner and the Treasury hit the auction market 79 times.

As we are seeing today, excessive borrowing can lead to strong market opportunities for well-positioned investors.

As long as Uncle Sam is spending more than he is pulling from the pockets of hard-working Americans, the value of the dollar will be at risk.

After a very strong December, the greenback is showing weakness today. It now trades at $1.4436 against the euro, a dip of more than a penny below the 2009 closing figure. A penny may not sound like much to the uninitiated, but a quick look at anything dollar-denominated tells a different story.

Oil is up, gold is up and the equities market is soaring. A turnaround in the dollar is just what we needed to get the pendulum swinging once again.

As I have said many times before, a falling dollar is good, but it can only drop so far before it turns out to be an utter disaster. Once the markets believe the bottom is going to fall out, it is all over for the security of the world’s top currency.

But that’s a problem we won’t have to deal with until the Fed pulls out of the game. Unfortunately, Bernanke’s likely to put the fiscal rejuvenation machine into reverse in the not-so-distant weeks ahead.

For now, however, it is time to make money while you can.

Any good contrarian investor loves the gold markets lately. I love it because we are raking in the gains over at TFN Strategic Trader thanks to recent swings in the precious metals market.

For nearly all of December, I took flak because of my gold-market pessimism. But folks that followed my advice saved themselves some big money as the shiny metal lost nearly 10% of its value.

But in the final week of the year, you may recall, I noticed the market was ready to change direction. On Thursday morning, with just a couple of trading hours left in the year, I made my move. I wrote my subscribers about a strategic option contract.

The move paid off. Thanks to gold prices surging by more than $26 per ounce today, the contract has soared by 44%. I am sure plenty of members are taking the one-day gains, but I’m holding out for more.

2010 will be the year of all years for currency and hard-asset traders. We are already proving it.

*** Here’s a question that will help you get the New Year off to a profitable start.

What do Medifast (NYSE:MED), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR) and Hansen Natural (NASDAQ:HANS) have in common?

The answer: They all make food or drinks designed to make you feel good. Even better, they comprise the three best performing stocks of the last decade.

Medifast, with its popular weight-loss diets, soared over 16,000% over the past ten years. Green Mountain, and its diverse coffee lineup, led investors to gains of 9,210%. And Hansen, the maker of a variety of popular drinks, is up by 7,022%.

Not bad figures for a time that most pundits are eager to call a lost decade. It is not surprising to see a decade that was so focused on consumer spending and short-term happiness to produce these kinds of figures.

Looking forward, however, into a decade when unemployment is creeping higher, discretionary spending is down and it is becoming hip to be frugal (finally, my time to shine), the three stocks listed above may give back plenty of their recent gains unless they reposition their product portfolio.

In ten years, it won’t be “fun” food we will be talking about. With the nation’s population growing by leaps and bounds, it will be staples like corn, wheat and water that dominate the headlines.

Don’t worry. We’ve got plenty of time to figure it out.

I used this insight and logic to warn investors about an imminent downturn in gold prices earlier this month. I got a lot of “feedback” from disappointed gold bugs. But it didn’t take long for them to eat their words as the price of an ounce of gold fell by nearly 10% in the last month.

But as I said earlier in the week, the slide is over. Of course, unlike the nation’s leaders, I’m willing to follow my words with action.

Here is what I sent to TFN Strategic Trader members first thing this morning:

“It is time to make the move. With the dollar increasing in value, America’s fiscal future looking stronger than its European brethren and record inflows proving safety has taken a backseat to asset appreciation, the price of gold has fallen by nearly 10% over the past month.

“Just yesterday, I read my first article in nearly a year that discusses the downside of the shiny, precious metal. Now that gold is trading for $1,100 an ounce, the sentiment has turned.

“Where were these articles a month ago when I warned of a turnaround? Now that the crowd has caught on, it’s time to change our outlook.

“As option investors, that means it is time to by. All you contrarian investors are going to love this week’s play. It gives you a chance to maximize the gains from gold’s upcoming turnaround.

“With gold shedding a significant portion of its value over the last four weeks, the speculation surrounding the metal has diminished greatly. That means once we get back down to base levels – the charts show its somewhere between the $1,050 and $1,100 per ounce range – we are set for even more upside.

“Rising inflation, interest rates and economic activity will boost demand well into the new year.

“Here is how I want you to take advantage of the situation. It is simple. Buy…”

You didn’t think I would give it away did you? To get in on the action and learn what I recommended, click here.

***We have come to the end of the year. In some ways I will be glad to see it go and in others, 2009 will be missed.

As a financial pundit, there will never be another year like 2009. Between pyramid-scheme scandals, unfathomable amounts of government intervention, a market nosedive and a roaring comeback, we never had a shortage of topics to cover.

As an investor, the action was bittersweet. Nobody likes extreme volatility like we saw in the first half of the year. Sure, there was profit opportunity, but not if it means losing your hair and risking your house.

For buy-and-hold investors, the year will end with gains of about 20% from the major indices. A nice victory, but still well short of where we were two years ago.

For in-and-out traders, the sky was the limit in 2009. Over at TFN Strategic Trader, we wrapped up a significant number of triple-digit winners.

But instead of looking backwards, it’s important to look towards the future and see what is just across the horizon. For 2010, it will be all about currencies, commodities and small caps. With so many of the nation’s smallest companies restrained by lending restrictions and top lines that refuse to grow, the next twelve months will be pivotal for the smallest of publicly traded companies.

For investors with the determination and skill to uncover the companies likely to be successful during that time, expect strong rewards. You can bet we will cover this sector in great detail as the year kicks off.

Until then, enjoy the last few hours of 2009 and have fun celebrating the arrival of the New Year.

Since April, the commodity has embarked on an extreme upside move, shooting to highs not seen since sugar hit $0.45 per pound in 1981. The chart below illustrates it perfectly…

Sugar Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/images/sugar_082509.gif

The main reason for such a large jump was news from India, which indicated a potentially low sugar crop.

Over the past couple of weeks, the sugar market has surprised many analysts by trading even higher. I say that because while fundamental news like this often results in impressive-looking moves, its impact has a limited lifespan.

So be warned. Moves like this usually indicate that the news is factored into the price and we’re entering the last phase of the bullish run.

Based on my experience in the commodities markets, where I’ve seen this type of pattern many times, I believe we’re headed for an inevitable turnaround for the sugar market. Here’s what you can do to profit form this, and two other commodities to keep an eye on.

How to Play the Sugar Market to the Downside

If you want to play the sugar market to the downside, I suggest you buy put option contracts, or by selling limited-risk call option spreads. At the moment, the October 2009 and March 2010 option contracts are the most active.

As you can see on the chart of the October 2009 futures contract above, the price surpassed the $0.2300 per pound level twice, moved back to $0.2150 per pound, then trotted past the $0.2300 mark again.

This is what technical analysts call a “triple top” and if sugar doesn’t move above $0.2300 again, we can seriously count on the market having a big retracement lower – most likely between $0.1900 and $0.2000 per pound.

So if you play the downside and it does make that retracement, I’d suggest taking profits at that $0.1900 to $0.2000 level.

Oil Heading For $80… And Beyond: Three Ways to Play the Move

Given the historic rise and fall of the oil market and the current state of the global economy, you’d never think that it could even consider the idea of moving higher again.

But the market continues to amaze everyone with its resilience and strength, with the current price hovering around the $74.50 per barrel area.

And with conflicting reports on the global demand for oil over both the near term and long term – plus weekly inventory reports that show a strong buildup of supplies one week, followed by draw-downs the next week – it’s easy to see how this can be a very treacherous market.

Here’s the deal: Regardless of what statistics are released and how Congressional attempts curtail oil trading limits, it’s clear that the oil market continues to bring in speculators from all levels – and will most likely keep trekking higher.

Check out the oil chart below. The price is currently trading above all three main moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 200-day) and is now looking to pop above the recent high of $75.27 from June 11. If that happens, we could easily see oil shoot to $80 from there – with $90 probably right behind.

Oil Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/images/oil_082509.gif

There are a couple ways to play the oil market – be it on the long or short side…

• The futures and futures options that trade on the floor of the NYMEX. This is usually best for experienced commodities investors.
• Through an ETF like United States Oil (NYSE: USO), which tracks the price performance. This gives you broad exposure to the market through one investment, rather than playing individual companies. It’s also a less expensive way to play the market and doesn’t require a commodity trading account.

You can either play the USO shares directly, or the options on the ETF. No matter whether you’re bullish or bearish, pick an option expiration period at least three to six months in the future, as that will give your directional call ample time to mature.

The Grain Markets: Summertime Means We’re on “Grain Watch”

Finally, let’s hit the grain markets (corn, wheat, soybeans)…

During summer, these markets can really turn to the upside, as the growing season can be extremely volatile, particularly if the weather is less than ideal.

The June-October period typically sees more speculation in the grain markets than any other time of year, purely because of the prospect of more volatility. Regardless of what any fundamental data may show, nothing can compare to the sheer panic-buying when we receive weather reports that show how a drought could wipe out a year’s worth of crop.

And some of it doesn’t even need to necessarily happen… it’s merely the potential for it happening, based on previous history. Fortunes can be made or lost in just those few summer months.

Buy Corn Commodities Low… And Ride the Bullish Move Higher

This year, for example, we’ve seen corn and wheat prices shuffle around their annual lows, due to government reports that show ample planting, high carry-over levels from last year and crop production that is ahead of schedule.

Corn Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/images/corn_082509.gif

With corn currently at its lows, if any potential weather disruption does occur over the next few months, taking a bullish position here could be a low-risk way to get involved.

Like with the sugar market, the best way to play corn is through limited-risk option strategies. Stick with expiration months of December 2009 or March 2010, so that you give the market plenty of time to mount a bullish move.

Good trading,

Lee Lowell

Source: These Three Commodities Are Set to Move… Are You Ready to Profit?