The U.S. stock market has enjoyed a strong rally since the early spring, but while the economy has shown improvement, it still faces major headwinds. So it may be best to hedge against the U.S. dollar, which is likely to experience a significant decline over the next few months.
With trading strategies that are based on complex mathematical equations, or that are driven by sophisticated “black-box” computer programs, managed-futures programs are usually able to remove human emotion from the investment equation – a reality that certainly helped them post strong returns last year, even as the volatile U.S. stock market whipsawed investors out of about $7 trillion in shareholder wealth.
While every investment asset class struggled mightily during 2008 – the U.S. stock market alone eradicated $7 trillion in shareholder wealth in its worst year since the Great Depression – managed futures provided investors with a significant bright spot last year.
It’s been in the news the last couple of days. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) bankers are headed for record bonuses. The Financial Times reports that bankers’ pay in the London market is already right back to 2007 levels and going higher. Banks are poaching each others’ best staff, and are offering huge pay packages to staffers willing to make the leap.
On Monday March 9, barely three months ago, I strongly recommended buying Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) as part of Money Morning’s “Buy, Sell, or Hold” feature. Both the stock and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had both hit 52-week lows the Friday before. But oil had already bottomed three weeks prior, and the lax fiscal and monetary policies of governments around the world seemed almost certain to promote reflation.
Is the hoped-for economic rebound merely a mirage? And if it is, how should you play it? For the past few months, optimistic analysts and investors have been scouring the global economy for so-called “green shoots” – a new financial buzzword that refers to any early indicators of a financial recovery.
In February 1995, the U.S. economy was in great shape. The 1990-92 recession had been over for a couple of years, the Federal Reserve was beginning to ease interest rates, the Clinton administration was beginning to make progress on sorting out the United States’ modest long-term budget problem and there was this new thing called the Internet that looked as though it might bring some exciting new possibilities.
In February, I wrote that the decline in stocks was just about over. Why? There was more money available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades. The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money market funds was equal to 74% of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to the Federal Reserve.
Is the U.S. stock market rally for real? Or have stock prices gotten a little ahead of themselves? After more than eight weeks in rally mode, it certainly appears that stock prices are outpacing economic reality.
”Despite the bad news the market is confused,” says Crisis Strategy Alert senior analyst Charles Delvalle.
On Monday the futures were down over 80 points. Yet somehow, the market ended the day in the green.