There are a lot of uncertainties permeating the market right now, not the least of which is healthcare reform. Will that reform entail a public option that could add $1 trillion to the deficit?  How is reform going to be financed?  And is it going to mean higher costs for employers across the board, or just the healthcare insurers?

Investing is made infinitely more difficult when 18% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is hanging in the balance.

And you still have to consider:

• That unemployment is likely to keep rising, perhaps over 10%.
• That the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing is slowing down.
• That there is almost certainly a second wave of home foreclosures on top of the current commercial real estate epidemic.
• And that retail sales are still a long way from recovery.

There is also reason to believe that the U.S. dollar will continue to be weak, though it probably won’t sell off precipitously.

The U.S. dollar has weekend against the Euro lately, having fallen 0.8% Friday.  Technically speaking the chart shows a traditional “cup and handle” formation that could lead to an acceleration of the dollar’s downward trend.  Gold prices, up about 13% Friday, confirm this trend and could soon break through the $1000/oz resistance.

Fundamentally, if the economy – encumbered by high unemployment and a relapse of the housing market – does not pick up the dollar could be further imperiled.

Weakness in the dollar will also be affected by the Fed’s withdrawal of liquidity, which is likely to proceed at a gradual pace.

Finally, diversification away from the dollar among the world’s central banks is taking place, albeit at a slower pace than many analysts have suggested, and that too, is weakening the dollar.

Let’s concede that there is no currency that could supplant the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. So, it’s unlikely that the world’s central banks will simply abandon the dollar anytime soon. However, we must also acknowledge that a reduction in the weightings of the U.S. dollar within central bank reserves is already underway.

An Aug. 14 article by BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard in Euromoney recently described this gradual shift in currency reserves.  The article noted that only 62.5% of global currency reserves are in U.S. dollars, down from about 66% in 2005.

So I do not anticipate a sudden shift in central bank reserves, but rather a continuation of the measured restructuring we’ve seen so far. Thus, the slow weakening trend in the U.S. dollar is likely to continue.

So, in this very uncertain investment scenario, I prefer to go for more secure returns in bonds.  And we can achieve great diversification at a cheap cost with the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD).

For starters, its weighted average coupon of 6.26% offers a current yield slightly north of 6% at today’s prices.  Investors are assuming interest rate risk, which means that if interest rates climb, the value of the bond has to come down.  But in the short term, there is no immediate threat of inflation.

Looking at the major holdings of the fund – which has no single position that accounts for more than 1.26% of its total holdings – I see some names that have demonstrated continued stability and others that have shown recent signs of improvement, such as American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP).  So I do not expect any major credit spread hiccup here.  I certainly do not see any hiccup that a 6.26% coupon would not compensate for.

For an additional hedge against dollar weakness, I suggest you revisit my June 8 recommendation of the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). You may also consider buying a bit of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN) fund.  Do not go overboard. Err on being light, rather than heavy on hedging, since timing currency moves is very difficult.

Recommendation: buy iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD) at market.  Consider hedging part of the US dollar risk by buying the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN). Both funds should account for a fraction of your position.  Have a 5% stop loss on UDN (**).

Source: Buy, Sell or Hold: The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund

But here’s the story in a nutshell. Li Lianzhong, a senior economist in the ruling Chinese Communist Party, directly attacked the dollar yesterday. Li’s message is simple: China should buy more gold because the dollar is poised for a fall. Li also said that China should use more of its $1.95 trillion in foreign reserves to buy energy resource assets.

Speaking at a forex and gold forum, Li asked the very valid question, “Should we buy gold or U.S. Treasurys? The U.S. is printing dollars on a massive scale, and in view of that trend, according to the laws of economics, there is no doubt that the dollar will fall. So gold should be a better choice.”

There is no doubt in our minds that China – the largest holder US Treasurys with $763.5 billion worth of bonds at the end of April – is maneuvering to reduce its exposure to the buck.

China has already said it will buy up to $50 billion worth of bonds denominated in Special Drawing Rights. These are essentially potential claims on freely usable currencies issued by the International Monetary Fund.

And on April 24, China revealed it had increased its holdings of gold to 1,054 tons from 600 tons since 2003.

Charles Delvalle offers another way to protect yourself from a dropping buck. Charles reckons that as the dollar has lost value the stock market has risen. In a recent e-mail to the crew at Notes he said…

“As long as the dollar isn’t dropping catastrophically then a falling dollar may actually be good for the stock market. Since March 9th, while the stock market has increased over 25%, the dollar has lost 10% of its value. What this shows is that as long as the dollar isn’t dropping catastrophically then a falling dollar may actually be good for the stock market. It means that the velocity of money is increasing. In other words, cash is moving out of bank accounts and into the markets.

“So one way to play a falling dollar is by going long the market. My suggestion is to buy into the strongest index right now, the Nasdaq. You can do that by buying shares of the Powershares Exchange Traded Fund (QQQQ) which tracks the Nasdaq.

“Another way to play a weaker dollar is by betting that the currency itself will fall. You can now do that easily thanks to ETF’s. One ETF which increases in value as the dollar drops is the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (UDN).

While I’ve always doubted that the “money on the sidelines” argument is really all it’s cracked up to be, one can hardly argue with a recently released report from Harris Private Bank of Chicago [part of the U.S. arm of the Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO) that notes that stocks have rallied for the next two years whenever money market assets have exceeded 25% of the capitalization of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. According to the Los Angeles Times, that figure is now 43%, down from 58% after having peaked in December - and that's even after the 30%-plus run-up in the S&P 500 since March.

What's interesting is that many investors holding large cash positions view their money as an asset, when, ironically, it's really more of a liability at this stage of the game.
Some might take issue with that statement. After all, even we at Money Morning have counseled readers that cash - correctly deployed - can allow an investor to sidestep the worst stretches of a financial crisis, like the one from which we're currently attempting to extricate ourselves.

But when the markets are as beat up as they as they have been, history suggests there's probably more upside than downside - even if we haven't bottomed out yet.
And there's a broad body of research to support that contention - including our own newly created "LSV (LIBOR/Sentiment/Value) Index" (published as a part of The Money Map Report, the monthly investment newsletter that's affiliated with Money Morning).

There's also data sets widely published by others, such as Yale Economics Professor Robert J. Shiller. Shiller has found that when you look at 10-year periods of Price/Earnings (P/E) data dating all the way back to 1871, the markets tend to rise when the average P/E is low, as it is right now. Conversely, when the average Price/Earnings values are high - as they were in late 1999, and again in 2007 - a decline in stock prices is much more likely.

There are obviously no guarantees that history will repeat itself. But if it does, the same data implies we could see real returns of 10% a year or more "for years to come," as Shiller noted in a recent interview with Kiplinger's Personal Finance.

My own research seconds the general-market-increase theory, but I'm much more conservative in my expectations of returns and think that returns of 7% are more likely.

Perhaps what's more important right now is that inflation typically accompanies growth - and with a vengeance. And that means that investors who are sitting on cash "until the time is right" may have their hearts in the right place but are relying on the wrong protection strategy.

My recommendation is a four-part plan that can help lock in the expected returns you want, while also protecting your cash from the ravages of inflation. Let's take a close look at each of the four elements of this strategy:

• First, protect your cash with Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs). Even though the trillions of dollars the Fed has injected into the system seem to be having some effect on the critically ill patient the U.S. central bank is trying to fix, we're likely to pay a terrible price in the future. Forget the hyperinflation scenario so many people are hyping at the moment. While that's certainly possible, it's not probable. However, what is likely is a dramatic realignment of the dollar and a general increase in worldwide living expenses.

If you're based in the United States and have mostly U.S. assets, you may want to consider something as simple as the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (NYSE: TIP) to offset this risk. The TIP portfolio is chocked full of inflation-indexed securities, but it also offers a healthy 7.46% yield. If you've got international exposure, you may also want to consider the SPDR DB International Government Inflation Protected Bond ETF (NYSE: WIP). It's a collection of internationally diversified government inflation indexed bonds that provides similar protection. Make sure you talk with your tax advisor about both, though. Depending on your tax situation, you may find that because of the tax liability on inflation-related accretion, these are generally best held in tax-exempt accounts.

• Own some gold but don't go crazy. Despite widespread belief to the contrary, gold has never been statistically proven as an inflation hedge. But the yellow metal has proven to be a great crisis hedge because of the 10:1 relationship between gold prices and bond coupon rates - which obviously are directly related to inflation. Over time, the two move in such a way that having $1 for every $9 in bond principal can help immunize the value of your bond portfolio.

So to the extent that you own gold, do so not because you expect it to rise sharply, but because it will offset the inflationary damage to your bonds. A good place to start is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) because it's tied directly to the underlying asset without the hassles or risks of direct personal storage associated with bullion.

• Consider commodities. It's too early to tell if the so-called "green shoots" that everybody is so excited about are little more than weeds. Therefore, it makes sense to concentrate on picking up resource-based investments. History shows that these things are less susceptible to downturns, but more importantly, rise at rates that far exceed inflation when a recovery begins in earnest.

I prefer companies like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) that are less dependent on the underlying cost of energy than they are on actual growth in demand. That way, if energy prices don't take off immediately for reasons related to deflation or stagflation, those still will benefit from demand growth. It's a fine point, but one that merits attention for serious investors. KMP, incidentally, yields an appealing 8.68% at the moment.

• Short the dollar to hedge your bets still further. Not only is the government going to borrow nearly four times more than it did last year, but when you add the complete federal fiscal obligations into the picture, our government owes nearly $14 trillion. This makes the dollar, as legendary investor Jim Rogers put it, "a terribly flawed currency" that could fail at any time.

To ensure you're at least partially protected, consider the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE: UDN), which will rise as the dollar falls. It's essentially one big dollar short against the European euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the Norwegian kroner, among other currencies.
In closing, there is one additional point to consider. You rarely get a second chance to do anything, especially when it comes to investing. So act now before the markets make it cost-prohibitive to protect yourself. When the economic recovery gets here, you'll be glad you did.

Source: Four Ways to Immunize Your Cash Against the Ravages of Inflation

[Editor's Note: Fourteen trades. All profitable. Since launching his Geiger Index trading service late last year, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is a perfect 14 for 14, meaning he's closed every single one of his trades at a profit. And he did this in the face of one of the most-volatile periods since the Great Depression. Fitz-Gerald says the ongoing financial crisis has changed the investing game forever, and has created a completely new set of rules that investors must understand to survive and profit in this new era. Check out our latest insights on these new rules, this new market environment, and this new service, the Geiger Index.]

After all, most mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and managed accounts offer long-only strategies. And why not? After all, the strategy is simple: These portfolio managers buy securities and hope to take advantage of price appreciation.

But the ongoing financial crisis proved those investors wrong – for several reasons. After all, what do you do in a trendless (sideways) market? And what about a declining market?

In either situation, the profit payoff from a purely long portfolio doesn’t figure to be very large. And that’s no surprise. After all, when bear markets arrive – as they periodically do – long-only money managers are typically limited to raising additional cash, or seeking conservative investments with limited downside, meaning the upside potential is also fairly small. And as investors have seen all too often during the current financial crisis, money managers who insist on “fighting the tape” can often generate big losses for their clients.

That’s where long-short investing strategies come into play.

If the markets head up or down, you’re positioned to profit. And given the wild volatility we’ve witnessed in the last year, any investor not playing both sides of the market, simultaneously, quite frankly, deserves it if they drown their portfolio.”

Unfortunately, many investors have learned their lessons the hard way for the past year and a half as virtually all classes have declined in value, resulting in sizable losses within their portfolios.

“This environment has exposed the flaws in traditional asset allocation theory, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), or whatever label you choose to put on it,” said Tom Samuels, managing partner of Houston-based Palantir Capital Management Ltd. and manager of the Palantir Fund, a global all-cap long-short mutual fund. “While Markowitz (Harry) and Sharpe (William) still have their firm believers, sophisticated investors are realizing that they cannot achieve true diversification merely by being long a variety of asset classes.”

Samuels believes the majority of long-only returns are influenced by the direction of the overall markets and that long-short investing strategies provide one of the few ways to achieve true portfolio diversification and risk control.

“Long-short represents the only asset class that can effectively handle both sideways and bear markets,” Samuels said. “The asset class allows investors an opportunity to systematically approach the markets and individual risk parameters differently than being long-only.”

The Long and the Short of a Newly Popular Investing Strategy

A long-short money manager has the ability to both buy and sell stocks to help reduce risk during such less-than-optimal investment environments as a trendless market or even a bear market.

The long-short strategy often serves as a hedge from overly bearish markets by allowing investors to take advantage of upside potential (long positions), while also benefiting from downward movements of certain investments (short positions). In choppy markets – like those of today – the strategy can help investors book some gains as they focus more on capital preservation, and not simply appreciation.

In reality, investors should consider incorporating some form of a long-short approach as part of the overall asset allocation of their portfolios, experts say.

Brian Lipton, founder of Gaithersburg, Md.-based YellowWood Financial Advisors Inc., seeks out investments that are not correlated with traditional stocks and bonds. Lipton views long-short investment products as another piece to the portfolio construction puzzle, and has incorporated hedged equity mutual funds as part of a tactical allocation – a way of reducing exposure to the risk of a long-only securities position.

“We realized long ago that we cannot ‘time’ the markets,” said Lipton. “We typically allocate about 20% to 30% of our equity portfolios in a tactical manner. Hedged equity represents a part of that allocation that helps satisfy certain risk elements and, of course, allocations that reduce long-only exposure in this environment have been beneficial. We have found that hedged mutual funds have been a very good choice during periods of intense volatility and could work well during other times as well.

Lipton’s firm uses one fund that goes long on favored positions, short on out-of-favor positions, and another fund that buys equities and hedges them with short positions on various indexes.

“While the latter fund is 100% hedged today, that percentage could change based on their views of the market environment,” Lipton said. “Security selection is still important.”

Hedging Plays: Make Macro Calls, Dodge Market Falls

At Palantir, Samuels looks for opportunities to hedge long positions, while also seeking profits on the short side. In managing his long-short fund, Samuels will make macro calls on the markets and the economy, micro calls on companies he believes to be either under- or overvalued, and also employs market-neutral arbitrage trades by pairing long and short positions in similar securities.

“Right now, we are short the dollar by owning the [PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Bearish Fund (UDN)], an unlevered ETF that inversely mimics the movements of the U.S. currency,” said Samuels. “That position represents a macro call against the dollar and the ETF shot up dramatically when the Fed announced its intent to aggressively buy Treasuries to lower rates. Additionally, we believe this short trade provides nice cover as some domestic companies may struggle relative to their international counterparts.”

Samuels’ fund is also betting against U.S. Treasuries through short positions in an ETF that tracks long-term government securities.

“Historically, central banks have had mixed records of holding rates down, particularly when their currencies begin to fade,” Samuels said. “Shorting Treasuries provides an opportunity to make money on that macro call, while also serving as a hedge against certain long industrial and consumer-related domestic equities that may struggle in a rising interest rate environment.”

Dave Walker, YellowWood’s director of operations, points out that his firm has begun using a long-short commodities-based fund as a way of employing this non-traditional investment strategy.

“We have been allocating a portion of certain clients’ portfolios into long-only commodities funds for years, but gains and losses have recently come so fast and furious that we chose to move into a hedged product,” Walker said. “We realize we cannot time these markets on a daily basis by investing long or short. But based upon the trends in the global economy and surrounding specific categories of commodities, a hedged commodities fund allows us to participate in this alternative asset with lower risk and volatility. We will trail indices when there is a quick rebound but, more importantly, we expect to curb the downside.”

Market Neutral Pairs

Palantir’s Samuels explains the pairs trading concept through a hypothetical example.

“The market-neutral pair trades entail buying a company in a high-quality security as measured by free cash flow (FCF), low debt, and [solid] profitability, and simultaneously selling a security in the same sector that we perceive to be [of a] lower quality based on these same parameters,” Samuels said. “Let’s say, we liked Intel (INTC) because of where the company is in its product cycle, its low debt position, and its positive cash flow. Conversely, we recognized that [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] maintains considerable debt and its last product introduction was under whelming. In this example, we may choose to go long Intel and short AMD.”

Samuels then discusses an environment that has the overall equity market declining by 30%, with Intel and AMD dropping 25% and 35% respectively.

“A properly executed paired trade would have returned 10% to the investor, even as the stock market as a whole lost 30%,” said Samuels. “The long-short manager then has the opportunity to unwind the arbitrage, but only one side at a time, if desired. We may believe AMD is more fairly valued after a drop of 35% and choose to cover our short, while still owning Intel, a high-quality stock that could appreciate should the market rebound. The long-short approach provides us significant flexibility, while the long-only manager has to identify high-quality stocks and then hope that the overall market direction cooperates.”

Client Interaction

YellowWood’s Lipton had not seen sheer panic from his clients – at least not before the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently fell below the 7,000 level.

“For the most part, our clients understand their allocations and we received very few distress calls,” said Lipton. “Nevertheless, we know the concern is there. When the Dow broke below 7,000, some became worried about further significant slides without any apparent market support. We spoke with them more about increasing the hedged positions and they were happy to control the downside better, while giving up a bit of appreciation potential. They were very interested in such investments, particularly given the uncertain environment we are in.”

And these days, a little peace of mind can go a long way.

[Editor's Note: Ron Brounes, CPA, is a regular contributor to Money Morning. A technical financial writer, Brounes, is president of Brounes & Associates, a Houston, Tex.-based consulting firm that provides writing, communications, and educational services for financial services professionals. Back in March, Brounes wrote about how the Obama stimulus package would affect your income taxes.]

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Source: How Long-Short Investing Can Lead to Profits in Today’s Uncertain Markets

[This is the eighth installment of a new series that looks at ways for investors to recover from the U.S. financial crisis. To check out the archive of previous stories in the series, just click here.]

This from Taipan Daily:

The most important thing for you to take away from the tail end of 2008 – indeed most all of 2008 – isn’t the real estate collapse, or the bank collapse, or the Wall Street collapse or the automakers collapse.

I’ll grant that this is one awfully big bunch of awfully big collapses. But in the end, they are all mere phenomena – not causes but effects, stemming of a fundamental battle.

I am speaking of the whole inflation/deflation thing. As we have pointed out repeatedly in this column, this interplay is one of the single binding actors in the market.

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Four Clues to Our Future

Right now, for instance, I have on my desk four articles from the feed services, and one chart. One bemoans the fate of retail stores who have been doling out 75% discounts since Black Friday in a desperate attempt to clear out rotting inventory and maintain at least a modicum of cash flow.

Now it appears that they are hoist with their own petard (the Shakespearean equivalent of shooting off your own foot), as shoppers seem unwilling to purchase a damn thing at retail anymore. (I can confirm this trend from personal experience: My wife actually made me wait till the 27th for my gifts so that she could get even better price breaks.

The second item is on the price battle brewing in airfares. The airlines have been cutting flights willy-nilly in an attempt to reduce excess capacity, and they still can’t seem to put bottoms in every seat. So now they will try cutting prices so low it will entice even the most reticent stay-at-homes back into the friendly skies.

Here too, I can confirm this trend from personal experience that our clan abandoned its usual holiday confab in NYC in favor of a long, long (really too long) retreat at Chez Lass. I must say that I did consider FedExing the children somewhere.

Anywhere really. Fairbanks, Alaska, came to mind.

The third item also confirms our reticence to spend or travel. It is from a data conglomerator, and notes that between November 2007 and October 2008, Americans drove 100 billion fewer miles than they did in the prior 12-month period. The report lays that drop at the feet of $140 oil.

Like a Snake Eating Its Tail…

This brings to mind the cyclic nature of these inflation/deflation trends. Allow me to demonstrate…

For the better part of a decade, I have warned that loose dollars would lead to spiking inflation, which in turn would stymie the very growth that those dollars were intended to stimulate.

And indeed this is exactly what came to pass. The price of most everything (other than lead-covered Chinese toys) shot to the moon, breaking the back of the American consumer and engendering the global recession we are now “enjoying.”

Inflation Begets Deflation…

But now that this recession has finally come to pass, the wags in Washington claim that deflation is now the number-one threat. And they point to those very items that I mentioned earlier: falling prices for oil, retail items and services over the past eight to twelve weeks or so.

As this trend continues, manufacturing falls off (and indeed it is at decadal lows now), and excess inventory begins to evaporate. The service sector curtails offerings (just as we see the airlines doing). And as the folks in the oil patch stop pumping expensive steam into old wells, or even stop searching out new ones, gradually we see all that excess oil disappearing off the market.

And in point of fact, most all of my wire service feed today is obsessed with the big fight between Russia and its former satellites. Seems that the demand for natural gas had fallen a tad, and now the Russians can’t get their asking price anymore. With the Russian stock market tanking, Putin and his puppets decided to cut the entire flow of gas to most all of Europe. “Don’t want our gas at our price, eh? Well, let’s seem ’em do without it, then.”

Everyone is calling this a political power play, and perhaps it is. But in the end, the Russians are simply doing exactly what the American airlines are doing: withdrawing excess supply.

… And Deflation Returns the Favor

Some look at this whole operation like a scale: Diminishing demand is balanced by diminished supply. But that would suppose that economies are simple systems that seek balance.

This is nonsense, and it’s a good thing too. In a genuinely balanced system, all information is uniformly distributed and understood, and all goods, services – and stock shares – are perfectly priced.

Real life, however, is a chaotic system in which a moron flapping his arms at a Starbucks on the New Jersey Turnpike can eventually raise the price of sugar in Brazil.

This system may seek balance, but it will never attain it. Rather, each cycle sows the seeds of the next imbalance. Again let’s look to oil: Already this reticence to look for new supplies has New York futures traders salivating like maddened dogs. Over the past few weeks, oil futures have risen some 43% off their December lows.

This brings me the final feed item on my desk today: It is from one of those speculators, noting that he anticipates that the demand will cross over available supply sometime in the next six to 18 months.

I’ll grant that this is an absurdly vague window. But it is his conclusion that is intriguing: He anticipates another whole round of massive oil price shocks. Except this time, it won’t stop at $140/barrel. He is figuring more like $240.

Is he nuts?

The Inflationary Power of $1.75 Trillion New Dollars

For that to happen we would need billions of dollars chasing relatively few gallons of oil. We already know how the oil supply is being reduced. Now where would we come up with, oh, say, $1.75 trillion dollars…

Oh my: That’s exactly the amount of money Washington has already put out there or is proposing to print.

And what happens when too much money chases too few goods? That would be called looming inflation, folks. Which is exactly why both Justice and I have been advising that you short the dollars any way you can now, while they are still big enough to short.

Specifically, I have and will continue to recommend both shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE:UDN) for investors, and call contracts against the same for traders. The former ought to gain a minimum of 20% per quarter over the next twelve months, while the latter could earn deft operators 100% or more over the next 90 days.

Deflation or Inflation? Get It Right, and You’re Rich. Get It Wrong…

This from Taipan Daily:

Japan’s absurd 0.2% rate cut is offering American “Dollar Shorts” a second chance at doubling their money.

Welcome to the World Banking Limbo competition, wherein central bankers around the world try to calculate that fine line between a stimulated economy and a destroyed currency.

Last Tuesday, U.S. Fed Chairman “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke re-earned that moniker when he announced that the U.S. central bank would move rates below 1% for the first time in history. What’s more, he promised that if that didn’t work, he would just have to imagineer trillions of new dollars to buy up U.S. Treasury notes.

Currency traders reacted almost instantly, ditching dollars for euros and yen as fast as the market would allow. Suddenly, the dollar was trading at a 13-year low to the yen and damn near par with the euro’s launch price back in 2002.

Gold bugs were also driven into a frenzy, and over the next day or so, futures for the stuff popped up some 5.42%.

The Race for the Bottom

Problem is, this whole “recession thing” is an international phenomenon. So when the dollar drops, stuff overseas gets a good bit more expensive for American consumers.

Now, let’s say you work in the corner office at Toyota’s headquarters. It’s been hard enough selling into the US market, what with American consumers all down in the dumps. Last thing in the world you want to hear is that your uphill climb selling into our market just got a good bit steeper.

Think Japanese sports cars are fast? The hand that dialed the phone between Toyota and the Bank of Japan was a heck of a lot faster.

By Friday, the BOJ announced that it, too, would cut rates. So there, Mister fancy pants Fed Chairman!

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How Low Can They Go?

“Wait a minute,” you might very well ask. “Haven’t BOJ interbank rates already been sub 1% for ages now?” You betcha! In fact, before the BOJ acted, they were already down to 0.3%.

So how low can they go now? The new BOJ rate is a whopping 0.1%. That’s right: one tenth of one percent. Oh, and Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board cohorts also claim that they, too, will create new yen with which they can buy up corporate and financial sector debt.

Some of the folks who watch these gyrations for a living have described the new mood in Tokyo as “aggressive.” Others have described it as “desperate.”

One thing I can tell you: They will hit dead zero before we do. I don’t know if that’s anything to be proud of… In the short run (we are talking a day or two), this has driven the dollar back up off its knees.

The Yen Will “Win” in the End

I have to figure that Japan will lose this limbo contest in the end. There are simply too many Japanese housewives banking yen every chance they get… whereas our government has told us outright that we simply must begin shopping again as soon as possible, and it is quite willing to put all of “its” (and by that I mean “your”) dollars behind that notion.

To my mind, this is a buying opportunity for the various short dollar/long gold positions I have mentioned recently, including shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE:UDN) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD).

Either position stands to gain some 20%-30% over the next few months. Traders who are looking for additional leverage (or a shorter time span) should consider at-the-money mid-term call options. Properly done, these options could easily triple your gains on these ETFs.

Source: How Low Can They Bend Before Their Backbones Break?

In an effort to demonstrate how serious they are about this whole “recession thing,” they stated that their new interbank loan rate target was zero. Zip. Nada.

When asked if this meant they had run out of bullets, Bernanke implied they could always simply inject money directly into the system by buying billions of dollars worth of Treasury bonds.

This is actually a peculiar thought, because Treasury bonds are the one asset that is actually in demand these days (whereas dollar demand is actually rather tepid).

In fact, Chairman Bernanke’s rather alarming statement caused the U.S. dollar to fall against the euro by the biggest amount in the latter currency’s history. The dollar also notched up a 13-year low against the yen.

Why Are They So Scared of American Banks?

But let’s go back to T-Bills for a moment. Right now, there is so much desire out there for the darn things, the Treasury Department can actually offer interest rates of zero, and even less than zero, and they just keep on selling.

To explain this, I’ve heard a dozen or so terms bandying about: words like inflation, deflation and stagflation. What I want to know is this: why would somebody want to buy T-Bills at zero percent, when they could park them at most any American bank for 2% or 3%? And that’s just for short-term notes – commit to a longer time spread and you can crank that up to nearly 5%.

The only reason I can think of is that despite all the efforts to secure the banks – all the billions and indeed trillions of dollars we have poured into their coffers, and all the various deposit insurance promises Washington has made – whoever is buying all those T-Bills has reason to think America’s banks are still not good risks right now.

And that’s a scary thought indeed.

No More Failures (Please?)

In a press conference on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson assured us to the contrary. Paulson is so sure that the banks are completely secure, he might not even ask for the second half of his “TARP” money. “I don’t expect any more major financial institutions to fail during the current credit crisis,” he said.

Shortly after Paulson made this categorical statement, Morgan Stanley (MS: NYSE) announced that it had lost another $2.2 billion in the three months ending on Nov. 30.

They were kind enough to point out that while this loss was some 558% higher than they had led folks to expect, it was actually a 39% improvement over the same time period last year.

Another scary thought.

The Wrong Kind of Record Gain

Meanwhile, things are still tough down in the trenches (where success or failure is measured by whether you still get a paycheck). Last week saw new applications for unemployment surge to a 26-year high.

The only good news to come out of all that was analyst expectations that unemployment had peaked. Unfortunately, we are now being told to look out for another record-breaker.

Indeed, Nobel prize-winning “Neo-Keynesian” Professor Paul Krugman has warned that if Washington does not continue to dump billions (if not trillions) into the economy, unemployment could climb as high as 10%.

Krugman shouldn’t worry but so much: The incoming Obama administration has pledged an immediate flow of additional billions aimed directly at unemployment – not to mention a highway and bridge program as big as anything we’ve seen since Eisenhower in the 1950s.

The Perfect Accessories For Troubled Times

So, given all that, here are a few things you might care to invest in during these troubled times.

Back in the days of FDR, they used to call idle hands the tools of the devil. Certainly unemployed folks are occasionally driven by desperation to seek out cash by removing it from other folks’ wallets. Usually by threat of force.

I don’t think that but so many middle-class working stiffs are going to start carrying serious heat. In fact, Smith and Wesson (SWHC: NASDAQ) are in a bit of a pickle this quarter, as only their lower-margin Saturday night specials seem to be selling well right now.

But I do think sales for those nifty little shock guns TASER (TASR: NasdaqGS) sells could be just the thing in 2009.

And if Obama is bound and determined to spend trillions building roads, I suppose a few shares of Caterpillar (CAT: NYSE) would do well as a stocking stuffer.

Finally, I suspect that all these trillions and trillions of loose dollars that Washington seems intent on forcing on us will quickly reverse the minor deflation we have seen over the past few weeks. So I would strongly suggest adding shares of PowerShares Bearish Dollar ETF (UDN) as a hedge against the return of inflation.

Source: What to Buy as the Dollar Stumbles

Adam Lass says the Treasury, along with the Fed, has effectively taken control over the entire global financial system.

Adam says investors should move quickly to protect themselves from this mess. One way is to buy into the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish fund (AMEX:UDN).

The entire world economy now jumps at the beck and call of three men: Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner.

For years now, Washington has systematically destroyed the value of the dollar. This campaign of destruction led directly to the real estate bubble, its demise and the ensuing mortgage crisis.

The entire time, these three men have quietly assured the public that all was well, that no precipitous actions were needed to be taken to forestall the troubles that were bearing down on us like a 300-car coal train barreling down Thunder Mountain.

One can only imagine what their private conversations were like. However, Paulson has been quoted as saying that he only took the job at Treasury to prepare for the inevitable crisis that was coming. Curiously enough, the trading house where he worked for 34 years bet heavily against mortgage derivatives when everyone else was wading in neck deep.

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Bernanke’s entire career has been devoted to the study of Depression economics. And Geithner is a master of international currency manipulation who has served under Henry Kissinger, Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, not to mention stints in the International Monetary Fund and the Group of Thirty, a private club of international financiers currently helmed by Paul Volcker.

And now that the crisis is upon us, now that virtually every Wall Street house except Paulson’s own Goldman Sachs has gone under or been bought up, now that the rot in our dollar has spread to all our global competitors, now that all other official and semi-official organizations that could lay claim to any power are defunct or paralyzed, these three have stepped up and literally bought up our country.

And they did it entirely with your blessing… and your money. Because right now, you’ll pay them anything to pry your foot loose from their bear trap.

For weeks now, these three have decided who will get billions from the magical Federal piggy bank. And who will be gutted on the trading room floor.

Bear Stearns? You get sold to our friends. Lehman Brothers? Sorry, champ, but you are road kill. AIG? We get 80% of your assets, and you get to pretend like you still run your company.

So far, these three have doled out half a trillion dollars one way or another. But not a nickel of it was free. No, no, as the terms come to light, these negotiations begin to resemble something out of a popular organized crime romance.

You know all those billion-dollar “short-term loans” the Fed has been making to every bank in the country? Each and every borrower has put up matching collateral in the form of junk mortgage bonds.

Technically speaking, since these bonds cannot be valued, the Federal Reserve is required is required to value them at zero. Zed. Zippo.

The fact that they have not done so does not mean that they never will. Indeed, these three gentlemen are now in the position of instantly bankrupting virtually any and every bank in the country.

Don’t tow the new line? You’re dead meat.

You say the FDIC will cover the banks? It ran out of money back when Indymac went under. Right now, it has roughly 10 times more debt than assets. And 15-20 more banks are slated to go under at any moment.

In fact, as I sit to write this, the FDIC is begging for more funds. Want to guess who they have to go through to get it? That’s right: Treasury Secretary Paulson.

The tactic of lending billions in cash against assets that can be revalued at a whim has proven so effective, Emperors Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner are now proposing to extend it to virtually every major Wall Street investor via their new “Department of Bad Debt.”

Think the Princes of the New World Order care a fig about your house, your job or your retirement fund? Think again: You are now, have always been and will always be a pawn in their grand scheme.

Every aspect of your life is on the line now. Not just your stock portfolio, but your bank accounts, your credit cards, the heat and lights in your house, even the value of the dollars in your wallet. They have put it all on the line to pull off this mad coup.

You simply must protect yourself if you have any hope of surviving. An immediate step would be to buy shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish fund (AMEX:UDN.

Source: We Now Live in a Dictatorship

You see, the dollar began rallying because traders expected the Federal Reserve to signal a stop to interest rate cuts. But once traders got the signal they wanted, what do they focus on next? The fundamentals.

We’ve just undergone our second straight quarter of sub-one percent growth. In an economy like the U.S., we might as well be shrinking.

Then you have an expected budget deficit of over $400 billion this year, a trade deficit that is completely out of control, and what could be the worst financial storm since the great depression. Does that sound like a bullish scenario to you?

When you look at the charts, you’ll notice that the US Dollar Index ($USD) recently found resistance at its 100-day moving average. This average has been resistance since April of 2006. Unless the Federal Reserve signals interest rate increases, it’s hard to see the dollar moving above this resistance.

With that said, it’s time to fade the dollar and get into the PowerShares DB US Index Bearish Fund (UDN) which goes up in value as the dollar drops.

Good trading,

Charles

Source: Time to Fade the Dollar