Joel Bowman, reporting from Taipei, Taiwan…

Everybody is busy counting…but nothing’s adding up the way they want.

The Chinese are counting on the American’s not to clip their coins; Americans are counting on the Chinese to keep accepting them. The Chinese count on the Americans to buy their widgets; Americans count on the Chinese to loan them the money to pay for them.

The Chinese ask the Americans for some numbers, “some arithmetic.” The Americans squeeze and mold, cram the equations through their models and computers, but still the numbers come out the same: with a negative sign in front of them.

But sometimes bad numbers can be good, or so the market is trying to tell us. What would once have been terrible numbers are now reason for celebration and sighs of relief. Anything under half a million, for example, is apparently a wonderful number of jobs to lose in a month. Maybe we should get some of these newly laid-off people around for a party, to join in the celebration. They must be positively stoked to be part of such a “less-bad” statistic.

“The world’s largest economy has lost 6 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007,” Bloomberg reports, “exacerbating the biggest drop in any post-World War II economic downturn.”

Hmmm…Good number or bad number?

The report continues:

“Including those that have stopped looking for work because they are discouraged by employment prospects and those working only part-time who prefer a full-time job, the jobless rate would have jumped to 16.4 percent in May, the highest level since comparable records began in 1994, from 15.8 percent the prior month.”

Good numbers or bad numbers?

Well, the markets seem to like them, whatever that means. The Dow is back to where it started the year and the S&P is actually up a few percent. Measures from Dubai to Tokyo are racing ahead (though the former collapsed almost 4% today…proving our next point.) Stock markets, by their very nature, suffer from a very severe type of multiple-personality disorder. They are the collection of millions of peoples’ very own hopes, fears and delusions…all wrapped-up neatly in a daily print. And, because of those millions of clashing opinions, markets have a tendency to overshoot themselves.

The higher this rally goes, in other words, the harder we can expect it to fall when the next jolt hits.

Markets across the Eurasia region traded mixed overnight.

European markets were mostly down, last we checked. London’s FTSE dropped over 1% shortly after the open as was down about 1.2% a few minutes ago. France’s CAC 40 was also off the pace, as was Germany’s DAX. Both were down 1.5%.

Here in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng kicked off the week with a 2.3% loss while Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed to gain 1% even. Down Under, the Aussies took the day off to celebrate the queen’s birthday. How embarrassing.

Over in the commodity pits, oil is down slightly at $67.70 per barrel while gold fell to $950 an ounce on dollar strength.

We’ll be back again tomorrow.

Source: Geithner’s Shoddy Abacus

]]> http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/geithner%e2%80%99s-shoddy-abacus/17626/feed 0 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/horrid-unemployment-and-sweet-sweet-gains/11194 http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/horrid-unemployment-and-sweet-sweet-gains/11194#comments Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:58:24 +0000 Andrew Snyder http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=11194 The unemployment figures are downright depressing. 2008 turned out to be the worst your for jobs since the end of World War II. Will 2009 be even worse? If we continue making triple-digit gains, will any of it even matter?

The equities market has had a less-than-stellar week. With the Dow currently down by triple-digit proportions, the major index has dropped firmly below it final 2008 level. Hopefully that is a comment we cannot make in 51 weeks.

Even with the rather bleak economic news released this week, there is some good news. But let’s get the bad stuff out of the way first.

As you probably heard, the Labor Department announced private firms from across the country shed some 524,000 jobs…

China also lowered its deposit rate by the same amount and reduced the proportion of deposits lenders have to hold as reserves by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5%, Bloomberg reported. All rate cuts will take effect Tuesday.

China’s slow burn of its interest rates is a calculated response to falling numbers across its board: gross domestic product could fall as low as 5% next year, way down from the 11.7% growth in 2007; exports fell for the first time in seven years last month; imports and manufacturing numbers also fell.

Unemployment figures are getting ugly, too. So far, the global financial crisis has taken 4 million city jobs from migrant workers and pushed urban unemployment up to 9.4%, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated last week. The result is rising gang violence and increased police measures and surveillances in cities hardest hit, Reuters reported.

China is also facing a dangerous decline in inflation, which limped at 2.4% annual pace in November, its fourth consecutive month-to-month drop and a sharp drop from the 4.0% posted in October, its National Statistics Bureau reported two weeks ago.

“The surprise is how small the move is,” Mark Williams, an economist with Capital Economics in London, told Bloomberg. “There’s been a sudden very rapid deterioration in all China’s economic data over the last 8 to 12 weeks.”

Last month, China cut interest rates by 1.08 percentage points, its biggest reduction in 11 years.

Also last month, China announced a massive $586 billion economic stimulus plan that will pump money into low-income housing, water and energy projects, airports, disaster relief and new railroads for the next two years.

“China understands that it’s gaining importance in the world economy and that it’s going to participate in that process,” said Keith Fitz-Gerald, Money Morning’s investment director and a former professional trade advisor who’s spent more than two decades focusing on investment opportunities in China, Japan and the rest of the Asia region.

“Many experts will see this as just a ‘bailout’ that’s directed at Chinese infrastructure projects, Chinese technology companies and at holding the global financial crisis at bay,” Fitz-Gerald said. “But the real message here is that Beijing is going to pull out all the stops to ensure that its economy does not falter. And that’s because China realizes that it’s become the super glue that’s holding the rest of the planet together.”

Source:Bank of China Tries to Spur Economy with Fifth Rate Cut in Three Months

However, a new blizzard of government money may be coming to your neighborhood, and it promises to be a true bailout for the masses, not just for those in foreclosure or real financial difficulty.

Tight credit and lending markets, rising foreclosures, and surging unemployment figures have homebuyers on the sidelines, pummeling the fortunes of homebuilders such as D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM) and Centex Corp. (CTX)

“It is going to be a very cold winter indeed for homebuilders,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for forecasting firm MFR Inc., wrote in a note to clients Monday, MSNBC reported.

And the numbers are grim.

The U.S. Commerce Department yesterday (Tuesday) reported that housing starts, where construction has actually begun, fell 18.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000 units from 771,000 units in October, much less than the 740,000 starts Wall Street analysts expected.

New building permits, predictive of future home construction, plummeted 15.6% to 616,000 units from 730,000 units in October. That was also way below analyst estimates of 700,000.

Housing starts were down 47% in November from the rate in November 2007 and permits were down 48.1%, the largest year-to-year drops since January 1991.

But on the bright side, any slump in new home construction could help U.S. housing market prices recover.

“The more we have less housing starts, the more we can shrink existing inventory,” Steven Goldman, market strategist at Weeden & Co. LP, told Reuters.

The news comes on the heels of a phalanx of trillion-dollar-government efforts and bailouts to banking and government agencies designed to shore up the housing industry. The economy has a variety of problems, but the housing industry is at the crux of any plan to return the U.S. economy to a healthy state.

Obama’s Housing Plan

Some economists are forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) to fall 8% for the current quarter, making the most drastic policy proposals increasingly palatable.

And the latest plan to emerge from the inner workings of President-elect Barack Obama’s recovery team is a stunner, sporting an astounding price tag of $3 trillion.

According to Bloomberg News, the so-called Hubbard-Mayer plan is being studied by Lawrence Summers, chairman-designate of the National Economic Council, and is already “on a fast track at the Treasury.”

The plan calls for reviving the faltering housing market by providing just about everybody access to a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 4.5% interest rate. That’s almost a full percentage point below the current national average rate of 5.47%. The plan might even be available to existing homeowners who want to refinance their mortgages.

The bottom line: If you have a mortgage, this plan would put extra money in your pocket.

Assume a homeowner currently has a $500,000, 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.1%, the average rate issued this year, lowering the interest rate to 4.5% would lower the monthly payment by about $500.

The thinking of the Obama team is that this plan might just be the magic bullet needed to turn the economy around.  After all, if Joe Taxpayer’s monthly housing payment drops by $500, he might not be afraid to go out and purchase that new car he’s been eying.

The effects from millions of subsidized mortgages like these could dramatically increase the number of home buyers and help stabilize or even push property values back up.

But the plan could be so expensive that the Treasury may try to limit it to new home buyers, preventing homeowners who want to refinance from participating.

That, however, might be impossible to enforce.  According to one scenario sketched out by experts, creative homeowners could simply draft a friend into an deal under which each would agree to buy the other’s house, grabbing the new 4.5% loan to do so. Then they could quit, claim the deed back, or rent them to each other for the same price.

This mortgage plan is radical, and might just be powerful enough to help turn this troubled economy around. And a $3 trillion bailout would have something for almost everyone.

Source: With New Home Construction Down, Obama Team Plans ‘Bailout for the Masses’