Amid the billion-dollar bankruptcies and bailouts it can be easy to forget about the rest of the economy. Christian Hill says data from this week should reveal ongoing weakness in the housing market and wider economy. Hardly what the market wants to hear right now…

Data released this week show that China is still flying in the face the global economic slowdown. Retail sales there soared 21.6% year on year  in May, despite a devastating earthquake and stock market slump. Exports for the same month surged 28.1%, even as demand in major western markets faltered.

“The export statistics are serving as evidence of an economic theory known as ‘decoupling,’”, writes Jason Simpkins in Money Morning, “in which emerging markets in Asia and Europe have developed enough market place muscle to no longer be dependent on the U.S. economy for growth”.

The base metals were mixed again on Thursday. Copper sank during the pre-dawn hours and fought its way back during the New York session though it fell short of positive territory at $3.6068/lb., down more than a penny and a third.

Just one day after Money Morning predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon be forced to increase interest rates, Dallas Fed President Richard W. Fisher said he expected the central bank would raise interest rates should inflationary pressures start causing severe consumer pain.

The US recession (sorry, Mr President: ‘downturn’) is just beginning, according to JPMorgan Chase boss James Dimon.

According to a report in The Huffington Post blog, Dimon said at a conference in New York: “Even if the capital markets crisis resolves, it does not mean that this country will not go into a bad recession. The recession just started.”

“We don’t know if it’s going to be mild or severe,” he continued. “We’re thinking there’s a third of a chance that it’s going to be pretty bad … closer to the 1982 recession than the very mild recessions we had in 2001 and 1990.”