If you look at recent headlines such as CNNMoney.com’s “Another Sign of a Housing Thaw” you may be inclined to believe that the housing market has finally found a bottom. Various reports cite increases in sales, slight increases in sales prices, and reduced inventory. These are the three factors needed for any housing recovery to begin. Throw in the first-time homebuyer tax credit, and we may have a winning formula.

Housing Market Showing Signs of Stability? Puh-lease!

Is it time to buy a house? Depends…

Recently, my colleague Marc Lichtenfeld and I took a collective pop at some lazy journalists and other media cheerleaders. Their crime? Whipping the investment community into false optimism through misleading headlines regarding earnings announcements.

For whatever reason, the French newspaper, Liberation, chose to recall a grim event last week. On February 4, 1912 Franz Reichelt, also known as the ‘flying tailor,’ put on his contraption – a homemade outfit designed to work like a parachute – went up to the first observation level of the Eiffel Tower, hesitated…then stepped over the rail and jumped.

In the currency market, the dollar fell against the euro. Late Wednesday, the euro was trading at $1.4214 vs. $1.4199 on Tuesday.

As we all know, the depression is over. The stock market seems to think so… with the Dow up 32 more points on Friday… and apparently eager to go higher. Oil rose above $64. And gold is trading at $937 this morning.

One significant step toward putting the US economy back on its feet would be to for the government to treat borrowers like adults. It’s a novel idea, huh? And one that’s likely to fall on deaf ears up on Capitol Hill. But we firmly believe here at Notes that it is a prerequisite of any real economic recovery in the US.

Investors in common stocks tend to ignore warning signs coming from the credit markets, often at their peril. Right now, the credit markets are broadcasting the following warning: The equity of overleveraged REITs is at risk of elimination or permanent impairment.

The high in gold on Wednesday turned out to be the Tuesday closing price of $924.10…as gold was under pressure right from the open in early Thursday morning trading in the Far East…as the New York bullion banks get about an hour head start before Sydney opens for business. This happened because the N.Y. bullion banks close for business at the end of one trading day…and open for business 45 minutes later for early morning trading in the Far East in the next calendar day. That 45 minute gap is the only time during the day that gold is not traded anywhere in the world. Note that on the Kitco gold chart below.