The battle between inflation and deflation is the most important thing for investors to watch right now, says Adam Lass. Fears of falling prices are rife in Washington today. But the inflation cycle will come around again soon, especially with all the new money being pumped into the economy by the Fed. Adam says that’s why investors should buy the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish ETF (NYSE:UDN).

Ed Bugos examines the outlook for gold in the short and long term. The government’s spending binge is fundamentally bullish for gold via its impact on inflation and the US dollar. However, it could take time for these negative effects to emerge. And that means another short-term correction in gold remains possible.

The Congressional Budget Office’s announcement Wednesday that 2009’s budget deficit was going to be $1.19 trillion – before a nickel of President-elect Barack Obama’s stimulus plan has been included – raises a crucial question for the U.S. economy: Is there too much stimulus, and what effect would too much stimulus have?

Responding to growing concern about the quality of the Federal Reserve System’s assets, former Federal Reserve Governor Lyle Gramley told reporters last week that “You have to reckon with the fact that one of the Fed’s assets is gold certificates, which are priced, as I remember, at US$42 an ounce, and if we were to price them at market prices, the Fed’s leverage would look a lot less than it is now.”

Humor me. Let’s crunch those numbers.

Those gold certificates have a book value of about US$14 billion, if you include special drawing rights and coin holdings ($1.7 billion). Even if you revalued this inventory, it would still total less than $300 billion, or 12% ofthe Fed’s total assets. So far,…

“U.S. Leading Indicators Index Fell 0.4% in November” said Bloomberg.com, and then it was qualified with the comment that the fall of the Leading Indicator “for the fifth time in seven months” was merely “reflecting the worsening outlook that led the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates and pledge unlimited purchases of securities.”

The government is spending like crazy. And the Fed is cranking up the printing presses to keep the money flowing. As the greenback crumbles and inflation returns, Louis Basenese says interest rates will have to rise again. He says the best way for an investor to profit from this trend is to short US Treasury bonds, which are in an unsustainable bubble of their own.

Commodities will rebound in the New Year, says Martin Hutchinson. Supply and demand fundamentals remain bullish for natural resources. Even more importantly, massive increases in the money supply will create inflation, against which hard assets are an important hedge. Martin gives five ways to play this trend in 2009.

Dollar-Euro parity? Crude at $12 a barrel? 15% unemployment? J. Christoph Amberger presents the Today’s Financial News top predictions for 2009…

Stocks are up 20% from their November lows. And they could go much higher. But don’t be fooled by this “sucker’s rally”. The Dow is on its way to 5,000. The Fed is trying to stop it. But remember, the Fed caused this crash. And it was government ‘rescues’ that made the 1930s Depression so Great…

We may be in the middle of a pre-Christmas rally, but Andrew Gordon says next year’s economic outlook is dire. Job losses are soaring and consumer spending is drying up. And the great unwinding of the credit cycle is not done yet. Andrew says the Dow is due another swoon, perhaps all the way down to 6,000.