If you’re just joining us, we’re at the Renaissance Vinoy in St. Petersburg, Florida. We’re enjoying the sunny weather, the hospitality, and a small fleet of high performance cigar racing boats in the bay. Their crews have been all over the place in the last day or so.

And if you’ve been “tuning in” for the last few days, you know that I’ve been all over the place in the last few days as well. I’m your “eyes and ears” during our 11^th Annual meeting.

And today is no different. It’s why I’m listening to Louis Basenese break down our current situation, and what we can do about it…

Taking a Look Back on the Crash

In one of the best explanations I’ve heard so far, Louis Basenese broke down the crash of 2008, and why it broke so many “rules.” It’s important to understand because traditional “safe havens” surprised so many investors by not performing as expected, shaking confidence.

There were other things in play as well. Regulations like the ‘uptick rule’ changed. And it was made worse by the collapse of some key Wall Street institutions that ran segments of the credit market. Mortgage assets, which numerous institutions had on their books, took a nosedive as reckless risk evaluation collided with collapsing home values.

It was a confluence of events few could have predicted.

Louis, or ‘Lou’ as friends know him, made sense of these events before his talk turned to some of the companies that are on his radar.

On of them is Stonemor Partners L P (Nasdaq: STON). This company makes caskets and owns cemeteries. Stonemor also sells burial plots to people and has entered the pet cemetery market where the margins are much more significant.

And while this “recession-proof” business has cash and a steady demand – it’s trading at just over $10 a share – Lou cautioned against buying right now. Their quarterly report comes out on March 31. Wait and see how the financials look and if they maintain their dividend payment.

Market Threats And Offshore Opportunities

Thomas Fischer, Sr. Vice President of Jyske Global Asset Management is from Denmark – you know the country with the most wicked, killer, pastries on the planet. He started in foreign exchange as a trader for 22 years. He presented some valuable advice for “newbies” on Forex, cautioning that while currency trading is fun – you have to be careful on a trading platform that gives you 100:1 leverage (standard contract) or more.

He’s seen time and time again that people trading with $5,000 will make 2 or 3 trades that are good. Then they get overconfident and lose it all.

Thomas recommends starting in the EUR:USD, saying that 35% of all trades are in this currency.  This makes it the most liquid. He’s bearish on the Euro, because he believes the next thing to blow up is eastern Europe.

Like Alex Green he’s bullish on the stock market for the long term. He explains that cash holdings are at 1990 highs here in the US …that’s $8.85 trillion, earning less than 1%! That’s a ton of money waiting to flood into the market.

Thomas recommended some intriguing opportunities including a EUR bond BBB yielding 15%. Get the full details on his currency trading recommendations, as well as his European perspective on transferring your trading accounts offshore, here.

Thomas Fisher put it this way, ”The currency market doesn’t correlate with stock or bond markets. You can always find a currency that you can own outright that will outperform another currency. If you pick your currencies wisely.”

And as our friends from Everbank pointed out, for the beginning investor, there is plenty of good, easily accessible research out there on the fundamentals that can give us an idea of the potential direction and current yields for currencies. For example, here.

Another Great Suggestion

We’ve heard from dozens of experts and specialists over the past few days. In addition to their personal viewpoints and opinions on how to prosper in good times and bad, we’ve also been getting some great tips on asset protection.

One, from Byron King at Outstanding Investments, was about storing your assets in bank lock-boxes…

If you own gold, make sure you get an account co-signer at the bank for any lock-box. If you die and don’t have a co-signer, the bank will not open it without a revenue service representative present. It’s an easy way to keep the IRS from hassling your grieving family members.

If your interesting in getting the full conference audio files, and all of the little tips that we’ve heard, go here.

Natural Resource Prospecting

Rick Rule is always a popular speaker at our conferences, and I’m happy to say he doesn’t disappoint. In this session he talked about the risks and rewards involved with resource exploration.

I was surprised to learn that only 1 of 5,000 prospects becomes a mine. This is why exploration can be so costly. However, the upside potential can be huge. Returns on successful efforts are often as high as $1,000 in profit for every $1.00 invested.

According to Rick, the only statistically rational way of to speculate in mineral exploration is to develop a portfolio of exploration stocks called “prospect generators“.

Rick explains is better on the recording, but prospect generators are corporate assemblages of very high quality explorations and entrepreneurs. They employ specialized technical or commercial skills to generate exploration concepts. Rick emphasizes, “It’s important to recognize that exploration is a knowledge business like research & development in technology.“

He added that the best due diligence is done by mining companies – not by investors or brokerage firms who often have a conflict of interest in their recommendations.

Rick also talked about three companies he’s personally invested in.

Rick Rule is an expert on natural resource investing, and one of the most knowledgeable “prospectors” I know. He won’t give you a stock suggestion if he wouldn’t personally put money in it. The audio files will have more on the three he likes.

Questions Answered

Throughout the conference I’m often approached with questions on a session or two. One question in particular stuck out today.

Oxford Club Chairman Circle Member Harry J. comes up to me as I’m pouring a cup of tea.  He remarks, “What do I do if I’ve already got a million dollar stock portfolio?“  I looked at him and replied…”Well, you celebrate!“

Turns out Harry used the principles and portfolios we recommend in the Oxford Club…he showed me the numbers to prove it. I think the best thing he can do is to educate others…pass on the wealth of knowledge, as they say. That’s what we’re trying to do with our new Investment U course, “How to Create Your $1,000,000 Portfolio From Scratch.”

It teaches you, your kids, and your grandkids the nuts and bolts of the investment approach we use at the Oxford Club. It will allow you to do exactly what Harry did.

We’ll have more on that soon. In the meantime, I’m rushing back into another session now. Stay tuned for our closing day’s wrap-ups and panel discussions on Monday.

Source: “Looking Back, So We Can Move Forward”

As you can see from the chart above, the US Dollar Index ($USD) has formed a nice upwards trend line that stretches back to mid-September.

Today, the dollar is hitting that support line. Also, its RSI and Slow Stochastic are both indicating that the stock is oversold and ready for a bounce higher.

Fundamentally, China won’t start dumping dollars unless they want to slam the value of its over $750 billion in treasuries it holds. China also realizes that if it begins dumping dollars, it could trigger a trade war with the US.

Both of those things are bad for China. Yet, that’s not the only reason to suspect that the dollar will remain a reserve currency for some time.

In the G20 meeting coming up on April 1, China plans to make a big deal out of creating a new reserve currency. But, if the US doesn’t want that to happen, it won’t. That’s because for the G20 to adopt a new reserve currency, it would need approval from the US (since it has veto power).

Last time I checked, the US wants to keep its reserve status. And so more than likely, the G20 meeting will be a nonevent (As far as the dollar is concerned).

The play to make is to go long the dollar and ride it back up to its previous highs. But keep a stop-loss around 82.

Now if you remember, I’ve talked about the dollar before. And I guess you can call me a “dollar bull,” if categorizing me makes you feel better about the “potentially blasphemous” words I’m about to speak.

On that day, the U.S. Dollar Index was trading at 85.71. Today, it’s trading at 88.

Had you followed my previous advice and dive into the forex markets, I bet you would have made out.

So heed my advice if you dare and take a look at this chart below…

This is a weekly chart of the U.S Dollar Index ($USD), which tracks the dollar’s strength versus six major currencies (including the euro and yen).

The first thing to notice is that the Slow Stochastic (at the bottom) and the RSI (at the top) can stay overbought for months at a time. This signals just how strong the dollars uptrend is.

Typically, stocks and currencies fluctuate from overbought back to oversold fairly quickly.

The next thing to note is that the dollar has run up to its November highs of 88.

If the dollar can break above these highs we could see it trading at 92 – 94 by next month.

So let me repeat the same recommendation I made 8 days ago:

“For you forex bugs out there, taking a long-term bullish position in the dollar should pay you greatly by the end of the year.”

I guess those were the good old days, before the credit crisis renewed the world’s faith in the dollar.

Today if you take one look at the chart of the U.S. Dollar, the only thing you see is strength.

This is a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) which charts the dollar’s strength against six major currencies. The first thing that you’ll notice is the dollar’s 22% move from 71 to around 86.

But the second and more interesting development is a new bullish diversion.

A bullish diversion occurs when an indicator such as the Slow Stochastic is showing a move from overbought (80 or above) to neutral (50 – 80)… while at the same time the stock does not really drop in price.

If you’ll notice, the Slow Stochastic has been dropping since the middle of January. Yet the stock price has remained virtually flat. This is a bullish diversion in its purest form.

Typically when you see this happening, it gives you an early indication that prices will move higher. If this bullish diversion is right, then we could very well see the dollar rally past its peak at 88 and go past 90 by the end of the year.

For you FOREX bugs out there, taking a long-term bullish position in the dollar should pay you greatly by the end of the year.

Detroit seems to be suffering from decades of reliance of fuel-guzzling behemoths that fell out of popularity as oil hit historic highs. The champions of green, including big media, now say that if only Detroit could follow in the footsteps of Toyota, Honda and other hybrid pioneers, then American buyers will return to the showrooms in droves.

This is not entirely true.

The issue is not confined to high mileage. The other factor ignored in this green wave of propaganda is quality. After all, what if Detroit did manage to turn around the old battleship in enough time to build green cars – but those cars were just as junky as the cars coming out of Detroit today?

While green is certainly top-of-mind in shell-shocked American consumers, it seems that no one is talking about the lagging quality of American automakers in this new generation of smaller, thrifty vehicles.

After all, don’t Americans buy foreign cars not only for better mileage but for their superior quality?

In looking at the Consumer Reports Most Reliable Cars of 2009, only three American cars made the cut in a grand total of 47 vehicles.

Detroit didn’t even make a decent showing in it’s traditional stronghold of trucks and SUVs. Only the Lincoln MKX ranked in the category of Mid-Size SUVs. The categories of Large SUVs and Pick-up Trucks were a clean sweep by the Japanese.

When the CEOs of the Big Three came hat-in-hand to Congress last week, they talked about payroll reductions, discontinued pensions and plans to build greener cars. They even had the audacity to ask Washington for R&D subsidies for new battery development.

But to the best of our knowledge, they never promised to build better, more reliable vehicles.

Yes, the green flag wavers can climb onto their soap boxes and pontificate about Detroit’s bad karma. While it’s certainly true that Detroit must compete with the Japanese and Koreans on fuel economy, the Big Three also need to make these new smaller cars better than ever before.

If we don’t see Detroit’s new, green vehicles showing up in Consumer Reports Most Reliable Cars of 2011, then Washington and American investors are wasting their money.

Private U.S. companies cut an estimated 157,000 jobs in October, the largest decline in nearly six years, ADP Employer Services said yesterday (Wednesday). Separately, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said job cut announcements by U.S. employers soared to 112,884 in October – a 79% increase from last year.

“We are starting to see more recession-like declines in employment,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, told Bloomberg News. “The loss of jobs means consumers will continue to retrench in the next couple of quarters.”

The ADP National Employment Report used ADP payroll data that averaged 500,000 payrolls for 24 million U.S. employees. It showed that private sector jobs fell by 157,000 in October – the largest decline in close to seven years. Job losses have been mounting since January, and ADP doesn’t expect that trend to reverse course anytime soon.

“It would not surprise me at all to see many more declines in employment in the near-future,” Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, said in a conference call with reporters.
Prakken added that it is “highly likely” unemployment numbers will be in excess of 200,000 job losses per month over the next several months.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas offered up an equally bleak assessment. The company said job cut announcements by employers rose to 112,884 in October, the largest number since January 2004.

A total of 875,974 planned job cuts have been reported this year. That’s 14% higher than the total number of planned job cuts announced throughout all of 2007 and the largest 10-month total since 2003, CNNMoney reported.

“Year-end job cuts are typically higher than at other times of the year, but the fact that October was significantly higher than recent years suggests that companies not only have been hit hard by this downturn, but they do not see a rebound any time in the near future,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“Even if the economy begins to rebound in the spring or summer, it could be months before we start to see net gains in employment and a decline in the unemployment rate,” Challenger added.

Financial services and automotive companies have led the way in payroll reduction. Their combined 239,760 layoffs represent 27% of all layoffs this year, according to CNN. However, those losses are beginning to bleed over into other industries.

The Labor Department is expected to report 200,000 jobs were lost in October, bringing the total this year to nearly 1 million. The unemployment rate is also expected to rise to 6.3% from 6.1%. Economists forecast that the jobless rate will rise to more than 8% before the job market recovers.

A new analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said the economic downturn, and the job losses inherent to it, are only just beginning. Goldman sees unemployment climbing to 8% in 2009.

McKelvey, economist and co-author of the Goldman study, told TIME magazine that over the next year, “lagging” sectors of the economy – such as construction, manufacturing, financial services and retail – will absorb most of the coming losses.

“As the economy slides into a deeper recession, it appears we are closer to the beginning of the labor market downturn than the end,” McKelveyover said.

Source: Job Losses Pile on in October, Expected to Accelerate as Economy Worsens

For starters, the market got some shockers last week from European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet. Mr. Trichet did everything except come right out and say he would raise interest rates next month.

I’ve never heard Trichet be quite so blunt in any of his speeches. So you can tell the rising inflation in the Eurozone is really getting to him. However, it’s not quite so simple. He may want to raise rates but he’s also battling the high EUR/USD exchange rate. That could force him to keep rates where they are, despite how he feels about inflation.

Plus, a high interest rate and a high exchange rate are starting to cause hard times for the Eurozone’s economy fundamentally. In fact, several of their numbers have been missing estimates lately. Before, that rarely happened.

So when Trichet “popped off” last week it instantly set the euro soaring against almost any other currency – especially the dollar.

Unemployment in America Rockets Higher!

Then at the end of last week, the unemployment rate came out for the United States. Last month, it hovered around 5.5% and was expected to inch up a hair this month. However, it launched a half point higher in just a month’s time. That’s the fastest unemployment has risen since 1986.

That’s a huge leap. And everyone is noticing – even the politicians. Don’t forget the election coming up.

No one wants to be the president who either was in office or coming into office when unemployment numbers are soaring.

As a result, the dollar tanked and the euro soared once again.

Why? Well, a couple of reasons. First of all, more unemployed people means less money sloshing around out there in the retail market place to be spent. So it will spill over into corporate earnings which may cause more layoffs.

Of course the other main reason is that the Fed Chairman is having a problem raising rates – when he knows higher rates will likely slow down corporate America even more and make the situation even worse.

Yet, the Man behind the Fed also has to control inflation. Yet he also has to help keep America employed and not kill the little bit of growth that we do have in the economy.

Pick Your Poison: Fight Inflation or Aid Growth

So what can central bankers do? Both Trichet and Bernanke are between a rock and a hard place. Trichet needs higher rates to squelch inflation, yet a thriving economy and a lower exchange rate. You can’t get all of that together; so now come the tough choices…

Then Bernanke needs to kill high inflation, yet keep America employed. Plus, he and Paulson are also trying to support the dollar. If they lower rates, they’ll stoke inflation and possibly cause the dollar to head lower and send the euro into the stratosphere.

So how does all of this unfold without the Eurozone or American economies getting clobbered? It’s not going to be easy.

That’s the tough part about the stagflation that’s been building in the economy. Your growth slumps, yet inflation doesn’t come down as the growth slumps. In fact, inflation goes even higher while growth slows.

So you can attack inflation and growth, and let employment suffer. Or you can allow inflation to get out of hand (which is a nightmare for a central bank) and allow the economy to grow.

With all of the hard choices and confusion in the air, guess where big institutions are running to until these guys get it all figured out?

When There’s Confusion, Money Runs to Two Places: Gold and the Swiss franc

The big name traders are dumping assets into the Swiss franc and gold. Remember when I said the euro gained against almost every currency out there? Well one currency that’s still beating the euro (even in the thought of a Eurozone rate hike) is the Swiss franc.

That’s right. Check out the chart below. The euro actually lost ground against the Swiss franc in these days of uncertainty. In fact, the Swissie even gained against the euro on the day that Trichet hinted at a rate hike. Normally that would send the euro soaring across the board and it almost did.

Though I couldn’t help but notice on these days where the money was flowing. It never ceases to amaze me. Once, the mighty Swiss franc was backed by gold so it was an obvious safe haven for traders. But today, the Swiss franc is not necessarily “safer” than any other currency.

Yet traders instinctively still run to this currency just as if it were backed by gold in uncertain times. So that’s one of the “safety zones.” Not because it’s one in reality but because it’s still treated as one by traders.

The “Unstoppable” Euro is Sinking Lower Against the Swiss Franc

George Soros has a laundry list of reasons why he’s betting against the pound – including higher household debts and a damaged financial sector that’s weighing on the whole economy.

But honestly, that just skims the surface of U.K.’s troubles. There are several other reasons why you should follow Soros’ lead and short the pound in the coming months. I’ll tell you how in just a minute. First, why does the U.K. have such a bad reputation these days?

More Mortgage Nightmares,
Not Just on Elm Street Anymore

On Monday, Bradford & Bingley – the U.K.’s biggest lender to landlords – announced they lost £8 million (US$15.6 million) in just the last four months. That is just one example of how bad the housing situation has gotten in U.K.

So now, Bradford & Bingley has to raise some cash. They’re planning to sell 23% of the company to the Ft. Worth-based buy out firm, TPG Inc. And they’re selling it for £42 million (US$82.2 million) less than they thought they were going to get for it.

It’s not going to get better anytime soon either. The U.K. Mortgage Approvals number came out the same day and it was the lowest reading since they started keeping records over nine years ago.

Yesterday, the Bank of England decided to hold rates steady. Why? Because when many people’s number one asset, their house, is going down in value, the last thing you need to do is raise rates. Higher rates make homes just more expensive – especially when many Brits are trying to sell.

Furthermore, consumer confidence numbers are down. You can’t raise rates and improve. If consumers aren’t confident in the economy’s future they’re not going to spend. If they don’t spend, the economy has no “fuel.”

On top of this their manufacturing and services sectors are in the tank as well. So if you raise rates you’re going to make progress a lot more difficult in the corporate world too.

But if you keep rates steady for now, then you’ll allow the economy to continue to hurt and slow down which could ease the inflationary pressures for now.

So that’s the pound side of things. What about the ole greenback?

How could a market – 40-times bigger than the New York Stock Exchange – be “hidden” from the general public?

Simple… it was roped off. Only millionaires, hedge funds, and bankers were allowed inside.

Over the past 34 years, these elite traders built a wealth-making machine. And today, it’s the envy of the world.

For a peek behind the curtain – and the chance to earn 319% in the coming weeks, click now.

Big Pensions, Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies Have Been Quietly Collecting Dollars

According to State Street Corp and Bank of New York Mellon Corp, institutions have actually bought more dollars this year than they’ve sold. That’s the first in quite a while. In fact, Bank of New York Mellon points out that the “dollar buying” is twice that of the 12 month average. These guys aren’t playing around.

Why do these big-name traders feel that the buck could go up from here? These institutions are betting that rates have bottomed and have no where to go from here but upward.

Now two Fed officials have hinted that their focus has shifted back to inflation once again. That means higher rates – if the Fed follows through. For my money, I’m betting the Fed will eventually raise this year simply to fight inflation.

Also, growth is starting to climb again in the U.S. – it just went from 0.6% to 0.9%. The Fed estimates that next year the U.S. economy will grow as fast as 2.8%. I sincerely doubt growth will rebound that fast, but I do think the U.S.’s growth will exceed the U.K.’s growth next year.

You Want to Short the Worse of Two Evils

The Fed has tougher decisions to make right now than they’ve had in years. They’re trying to tiptoe and maneuver around stagflation.

However, I fully believe that they’ll raise rates later on this year and that the U.K. will probably have to cut rates as their economy is expected to slow further just as the U.S. is starting to pick up a hair.

So compared to the pound, the dollar is the “lesser of the two evils.” That means the British pound vs. the U.S. dollar currency pair (GBP/USD) will drop in value in the months ahead. So look for shorting opportunities.

Sean Hyman, Currency Analyst

P.S. My colleague, Jack Crooks is playing this strong dollar trend with quick, timely plays in the spot foreign-exchange market in The Money Trader. In case you’re not familiar with this service, The Money Trader is the longest running spot-trading service tailored for retail investors like you. In timely updates, Jack tells you when to buy, when to sell and gives you running commentary on what’s happening with your money worldwide. Click now to get more details on where your money is headed next.

Source: Why Soros Is Getting Ready to Break the Bank of England Again, Part II

The financials got whacked again yesterday — taking the market down along with it — on news of further debt downgrades from Standard & Poor’s.

On the i-bank side, Lehman, Merrill and Morgan all saw their credit ratings take a hit. On the commercial bank side, Wachovia and Washington Mutual said sayonara to their current leaders. This implies more bad news in the pipeline.

About a month ago, your humble editor compared Western banks to an old radio filled with cockroaches. (See Banks a Lot archived on the TPG Web site.) Four weeks later, the roaches are still pouring out.

At various times in the past few months, Taipan Daily has pounded the table for shorts on the broader financials. Those shorts are working well now, with XLF (the financial SPDR) trending lower in stair-step fashion and the Philly Bank Index ($BKX) testing its lows.

But in terms of keeping a finger on the pulse, the new bellwether for financial stocks just might be Lehman Brothers (LEH:NYSE).

Lehman is the smallest bulge-bracket investment house on the Street now that Bear Stearns is no more. Many thought it would follow in Bear’s footsteps during the heat of the crisis. (That’s where that big downward spike came from in early Feb.)

So far, Lehman has defied its critics — thanks in part to the smart moves of CFO Erin Callan and CEO Dick Fuld. But the sharks are still circling, and some very smart people think Lehman is still teetering on the brink.

The sharks smelled blood in the water this morning, as news arose that Lehman may be forced to raise billions in fresh capital to shore up its balance sheet.

The big question is how much exposure the investment bank still has to toxic mortgage trades and so-called “level 3 assets” — opaque stuff holdings that are extremely hard to value.

Watch LEH and the $BKX. If one or the other cracks, there could be another big downward whoosh for the financials. (“Whoosh,” of course, being a highly technical trading term.)

Buy One, Get One Free

Meanwhile, the housing bust is still in full swing. The above chart was featured in a recent Chart of the Day, but is worth reposting for those of you who didn’t catch it.