Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) reports tomorrow (Tuesday), while JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) reports Thursday, and Citigroup Inc (C) reports on Friday.

While the chief executives of several of the largest U.S. banks were quick to announce favorable showings for the first two months of the year, analysts are concerned that the strong showings may not have carried over into March, and that the performances of some of these money-centered banks may disappoint.

Contradictions hit the financials last week as diverse reports about Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo brought even more confusion to a sector that cannot seem to stay out of the daily headlines. On one hand, analysts expect Morgan Stanley to write down an additional $1.2 billion worth of bonds; subsequently, the firm may suffer its second straight quarterly loss.

On the other hand, Wells Fargo expects earnings to far surpass Wall Street’s projections as its Wachovia Corp. acquisition has enhanced its mortgage-lending capabilities at a time when rates are at historic lows and when the U.S. housing market is showing some signs – be they ever so slight – of rebounding [Indeed, a Money Morning report from just last week made this same point].

Bear in mind that since the financials have led the charge in equities during the past five weeks, investors may be looking for any excuse to take some recent profits.  Intel Corp. (INTC), which reports tomorrow, Google Inc (GOOG), which reports Thursday and General Electric Corp. (GE), which reports Friday, figure to be crucial announcements.

The March inflation gauges highlight the economic calendar, and economists hope that price pressures remain far off of their radar screens.  The retail sales data should lend a bit more insight into the current plight of the consumer.

Market Matters

Alcoa Corp. (AA) kicked off earnings season with more of whimper than a bang.  While the aluminum producing giant lost about $500 million during the quarter, the company expects to benefit from the infrastructure programs promoted in the economic stimulus package – key areas that could enhance demand for its products.  Bed Bath and Beyond Inc. (BBBY) reported better-than-expected quarterly results and even received a favorable analyst upgrade.

With the season set to kick off in a big way in the weeks to come, Thomson Reuters has called for a 37% drop in profits at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies, the eighth consecutive quarterly decline (though that prediction came before the Wells announcement).

Economically Speaking

A light week on the calendar still provided plenty of headlines on the economic home front last week.  Corporate executives painted a rather bleak picture of the short-term future for U.S. industry as the Business Roundtable issued a quarterly outlook that turned negative for the first time in its survey’s history.  The majority of those participating expect their companies to experience layoffs and reductions in business spending during the coming six months.

However, Roundtable Chairman Harold McGraw III, who is also the CEO of The McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc. (MHP), expressed confidence in the Obama administration’s ability to generate renewed business activity. McGraw said he also believes the economy may be close to a bottom.

On the other hand, minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Open Market Committee policymaking meeting that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and friends revised their expectations (to the downside) for the economic recovery. While they anticipate that gross domestic product (GDP) will flatten (from its current contraction state) by the end of the year, unemployment is expected to continue its downward spiral well into 2010.

Though initial claims for unemployment benefits surprisingly fell last week, they remain at very high levels, and total claims (those looking for jobs over extended periods) jumped to a record high. While the trade deficit narrowed to its lowest level since November 1999, the improvement is more indicative of the sluggish economy and the reduced global demand for any and all goods and services.

Retailers posted their results of March sales and the numbers were mixed at best.  While Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT) had long been the one “steady Eddie” during this economic downturn, the world’s largest retailer reported March sales that missed expectations (though the company does expect its quarterly results to be strong, thanks to a stellar February).  Stores that target teens like Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), Aeropostale Inc. (ARO) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) each posted disappointing numbers, though analysts point out that Easter (and many spring breaks) fall later in the 2009 calendar (April 12 this year versus March 23 a year ago) and most holiday shoppers are waiting until the last minute these days.

Still, more than 50% of those retailers reporting beat Wall Street expectations, and some even issued favorable guidance for the quarter as a whole.  Of note, The TJX Cos. Inc. (TJX) (TJ Maxx and Marshalls) and Penney Co. Inc. (JCP) both posted better-than-expected sales results and increased their outlooks for the three-month period.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source:  As Earnings Season Heats Up, U.S. Banks Will Make or Break the Stock-Market Rally

It’s the first time since 1939 that job losses have exceeded 600,000 for three consecutive months, as revisions for December and January showed an additional loss of 161,000 jobs.

The record for monthly job losses was set in September 1945, when nearly 2 million people lost their jobs after the Allied forces won the most destructive war in history and American industry was transitioning from wartime to peacetime, Money Morning reported Monday. Then, in October 1949, 834,000 jobs were lost when almost all the nation’s steelworkers went on strike in the final month of a short-but-brutal recession.

Another strike in July 1956 resulted in 629,000 lost jobs, but the next month the economy bounced back and 678,000 jobs were regained.

The work force is much larger today than it was in 1949 or 1956. But with about 4.4 million jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007, more than 3% of U.S. payrolls have been eliminated. That puts this recession in a category with the recessions of 1982, 1954 and 1949 when 3.1% of payrolls were cut. About 4% of U.S. payrolls were lost in 1958.

“There is not a single sign that points to a bottom yet,” Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. told Bloomberg.  “It is the worst recession in the post-war era.”

Analysts at Wachovia Corp. (WB) estimate that 6.5 million Americans will have lost their jobs by the time the financial crisis finally subsides.

“Employment losses have deepened considerably in recent months,” wrote economists for Wachovia. “With total revenue declining at its worst pace since the late 1950s, many businesses and governments are in survival mode and have no choice but to cut jobs.”

The Labor Department report showed that Factory payrolls declined by 168,000 in February after falling 257,000 in January. Builders shed 104,000 payrolls after dropping 118,000 in the month Prior. Government payrolls continued to be the only bright spot, as Uncle Sam added 9,000 workers in February and 31,000 in January.

The U.S. unemployment rate surged 0.5% to 8.1% in February, the highest level in more than a quarter century.

Source: Job Losses Continue to Mount in February, Unemployment Rate Soars to 8.1%

But a historic drop in retail gasoline prices and auto sales may have exaggerated the decline.  Filling-station sales mirrored the recent drop in prices from $4 a gallon in July to less than $2 a gallon recently. Auto sales fell 2.8%, confirming automakers’ assertions that business had sunk to the lowest levels in decades.

Excluding gasoline, which fell by almost 15%, retail sales fell just 0.2%.

In fact, without sales of autos, gasoline and building materials, sales actually rose 0.5%, the most since May.

“The financial markets were braced for a horrific retail sales report for November, but the numbers were actually not so bad,” Mark Vitner, a senior economist for Wachovia Corp. (WB), told MarketWatch.com.

Retail fell a projected 2%, according to the median estimate of 73 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Economists consider retail sales to be a bellwether for the overall economy since it accounts for about 50% of all consumer spending.

There were some promising stats, however. Aside from the automotive sectors, sales surged in almost every other important category.  General merchandise store sales rose 1.3%, the biggest gain in three years. Electronic stores had a 2.8% jump in receipts.

Purchases at department stores rose by the most in three years as Americans took advantage of discounts by retailers from Macy’s Inc. (M) to Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) to start shopping for the holidays.

But while it appears retailers have been successful in getting consumers to loosen the spending reins with aggressive discounts, the devil may be in the details.  Retailers have been consistently warning that their profits will suffer from the heavy discounting they’re using to entice shoppers.

Neiman Marcus, the luxury retailer owned by ) and TPG Inc., which recently used heavy discounts to reduce inventories, said this week that profits dropped in the quarter ended Nov. 1.  Purchases of expensive goods are also falling because of tight credit restrictions imposed by banks.

Retail analysts have been increasingly concerned about “cherry-picking,” where consumers storm the aisles for heavily advertised items, but leave the store without making other purchases.

That has led some to question the validity of the numbers themselves.

“We are somewhat suspicious of the November results and believe that a seasonal adjustment quirk may have influenced the results,” wrote David Greenlaw, an economist for Morgan Stanley (MS), MarketWatch reported.

Same-store sales in the U.S. fell 2.7% in November from a year earlier, the biggest drop since records began in 1969, the International Council of Shopping Centers said last week.

And aworsening labor market is unlikely to sustain any rebound.  The employment outlook is likely to drag down holiday shopping, a time when many stores expect to reap up to half of their annual revenue.

The unemployment rate climbed to 6.7% percent in November, the highest level since 1993. Employers have cut 1.9 million workers from payrolls so far this year.  Surging unemployment usually leads to a plunge in consumer confidence and spending cutbacks.

A dismal holiday shopping season also bodes ill for retail sales throughout 2009.  That could likely lead to a consolidation in the sector with many retailers closing their doors for good.

In fact, bankruptcies of stores such as Sharper Image Corp. (OTC: SHRPQ) and Circuit City Stores Inc. (OTC: CCTYQ) are already having a negative effect on the sale of gift cards, with consumers afraid to bet on long-term survival of some retail franchises.

Counting on the survivors being the heavy discounters such Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and the world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT).

“This is Wal-Mart time,” Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott Jr. told Wall Street analysts during an Oct. 27 presentation at company headquarters in Bentonville, Ark., BusinessWeek reported. “This is the kind of environment that Sam Walton built this company for.”

Plunging Auto & Gas Sales Hurt Retail Sales in November