For those of us who predict stuff for a living, this is one of those lovely moments in economics when we know for a fact that only one of two things will happen in the near future. We now know one thing for a fact… that in the first third of the second quarter of 2009, American retailers paid more and sold less, both by price and by unit. Simple arithmetic tells you that this means lower profits.

Stocks edged up in early morning trading today (Thursday) as an uptick in producer prices and steady earnings from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) outweighed a surge in jobless claims last week.

FTSEurofirst 300 falls 1.5 percent… Banks under pressure on poor economic outlook… Miners, oils slip…

There are a lot of forces impacting the gold market, yet prices are barely moving. Demand is soaring, but prices are dropping. What gives?