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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; World Banks</title>
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		<title>Where the Beer Is Great</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/where-the-beer-is-great/1017</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/where-the-beer-is-great/1017#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Apr 2008 12:55:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Gordon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank Of Nova Scotia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Crunch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derivatives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gmac Loans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merrill Lynch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overseas bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[portfolios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[subprime crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Subprime Mortgage Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Banks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/where-the-beer-is-great/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">About a year ago, my father asked if the Merrill Lynch bond he was thinking of investing in was okay. I looked it over &#8230; noted its high rating &#8230; and said sure.</font> <font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">A little less than a year ago, I was speaking to a vice president of Bank of Nova Scotia. I was asking him about the bank’s exposure to the subprime crisis. He said it was negligible. </font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">I then asked him about the GMAC loans it had recently bought. He said they’re fine &#8230; the defaults were lower than they had projected. So I added the bank to one of my portfolios.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">It’s one year later. From what I hear from my dad, after plunging the Merrill Lynch bond is&#8230;</font></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">About a year ago, my father asked if the Merrill Lynch bond he was thinking of investing in was okay. I looked it over &#8230; noted its high rating &#8230; and said sure.</font> <font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">A little less than a year ago, I was speaking to a vice president of Bank of Nova Scotia. I was asking him about the bank’s exposure to the subprime crisis. He said it was negligible. </font><span id="more-1017"></span><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">I then asked him about the GMAC loans it had recently bought. He said they’re fine &#8230; the defaults were lower than they had projected. So I added the bank to one of my portfolios.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">It’s one year later. From what I hear from my dad, after plunging the Merrill Lynch bond is back up. And the Bank of Nova Scotia’s shares are exactly where they were a year ago. That’s much better than most North American banks have done over the past year.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">No harm, no foul?</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">I’d be the stupidest guy on the planet if I thought that there were no lessons to be learned just because these investments didn’t turn to mush.  </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><br />
Fact is, my assumptions have changed. If my dad showed me the same Merrill Lynch bond today, I would’ve told him not to touch it.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">And I wouldn’t have cared if a high-ranking official from an American bank swore to me they weren’t exposed to the subprime mortgage market. I wouldn’t have believed him. I would definitely have put off investing.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The housing bust, subprime mess, credit crunch and resulting financial crisis have done more than just bring the market down.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">They’ve led to a stunning collapse of confidence that has infected the entire investment world. Banks don’t want to lend to each other &#8230; institutional investors don’t know what’s safe anymore &#8230; and retail investors don’t believe anything anymore.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">How can they? The rating agencies have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they do not understand derivatives. Their ratings are worthless.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">And the brokers and analysts who follow every twist and turn the market makes? It must have made them so dizzy that they can’t see the forest for the trees. They’ve been making one bad call after another.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Just a couple of weeks ago, for example, Buckingham Research estimated that Bear Stearns had $35 billion in liquid assets and borrowing capacity, enough to operate for 20 months. Turns out it had enough for three days. This is one of dozens of examples I could cite.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">There’s so much uncertainty in the investment world that we can no longer fall back on our long-held ideas of what makes a safe investment.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Munis? Sorry, thanks to the shaky status of the monoline insurance companies (which insure munis), they’re no longer the safe investments they used to be.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Money market funds? They’ve been hit too. Some brokerages are covering losses with their own money rather than pass it on to those who invested in these supposed safe havens.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Good move. I don’t blame  them.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Corporate bonds? The spread on what you can earn from them is tempting, but along with falling employment there is increasing evidence that Wall Street’s problems have become Main Street’s. By no means can these be considered rock-solid safe investments.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">What’s left? Oh, yes, how could I forget. U.S. government bonds. Okay, they’re still safe but are they really investments? I mean, can anything you get a negative return on be considered an “investment?”</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">I don’t think so, and that’s exactly what you’re getting with them. A ten-year note would give you 3.6 percent yield.</font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"> </font></p>
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<p align="center"><font size="2"><strong><font color="#ff0000" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">INTERNAL ENDORSEMENT</font></strong></font></p>
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<p align="center"><font size="2"><u><strong><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Wall Street Lies EXPOSED! </font></strong></u></font></p>
<p align="left"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">They&#8217;ve   led you to believe that investors who want outsized gains must take on   ridiculous risks.</font></p>
<p align="center"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><a href="http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1464362/29503527/845286/0/" target="_blank"><u>Click here to learn how a Small One-Time Investment Could Grow Until It&#8217;s Larger Than All of Your Other Investments Combined.</u></a></font></p>
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<p><font size="2"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br />
</font></font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Inflation is running at 4.1 percent, and that excludes food and energy prices. The real rate of inflation (as my colleague Rusty McDougal would attest) would be much higher.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">U.S. bonds are worse than giving the government a free loan. Instead of the government paying you extra money for the loan, you pay the government for the privilege of loaning it money.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Do  you feel honored? Or cheated?</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Well,  I can’t speak for you. But this is the kind of honor that could land me in the  poor house. I’d say cheated.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Well,  is there any investment that is truly safe?</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">There  sure is. <u>Australian  government bonds</u> have never looked better than they do right now. And it’s the perfect  time to jump into them&#8230;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Not only because Australia has one of the strongest economies in the world. Unemployment is at a 33-year low. And prices of its two big exports – coal and iron ore – are at historical highs. It doesn’t hurt that around 66 percent of Australia’s exports are commodities.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">And not only because Australia is effectively shielded from the problems we’re having in the U.S. They trade mostly with fast-growing Asia. In fact, 60 percent of its exports go to Asia.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The biggest reason the timing couldn’t be better is because the Aussie government has been raising its key interest rate to stave off inflation. They’ve raised it all the way to 7.25 percent.</font></p>
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