And Warren Buffett came out saying he’s buying equities again. All the while, the dollar is sitting at an 11 month low, and gold touched $1006 this morning.

As I perused the underground, I came across a piece by Jeff Harding of the Daily Capitalist that I had to share. He begins by asking, “how has the playing field for our economy changed and how will those changes affect our future? The answer to these questions will determine the future of the world’s economies.”

He then outlines the 7 mega-trends that will dictate our economic future. We’ve touched upon many of these ideas in previous issues. But here they are:

• Megatrend No.1. The culture of consumption is broken and won’t return to former levels. This is the key to everything.
• Megatrend No.1. The culture of consumption is broken and won’t return to former levels. This is the key to everything.
• Megatrend No. 2. Consumers will continue to increase savings to prepare for retirement.
• Megatrend No. 3. Declining U.S. consumer demand will continue to negatively impact the world economy.
• Megatrend No. 4. Deflation will continue for some time.
• Megatrend No. 5. Home ownership rates will decline to more historical levels of, say, around 66%, down from the high of 69% during the boom, which will keep a lid on home prices.
• Megatrend No. 6. Government stimulus and recovery programs only delay recovery and deepen the pain for workers.
• Megatrend No. 7. Massive federal deficits will double the national debt, result in higher taxes, and will act as a permanent drag on the economy.

If you have a chance, you should check out the piece in full. It is jam packed with facts and figures that will give you something to chew on for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

So where do these trends all lead?

All cycles eventually bottom out and growth resumes. The timing of any recovery is impossible to predict and for the most part it depends on what the government will do (or, hopefully, not do). The more the government interferes with the recovery process by propping up bankrupt banks, by manipulating the economy with fiscal and monetary stimulus, by creating a huge national debt, and by increasing taxes, the longer it will take.

With commercial real estate in serious decline, deflation will continue, and we’ll see more bank failures. While we may see a “bump” in GDP in Q3 and Q4, the liquidation of commercial real estate assets and other debt will accelerate. At some point, deflation will stop, and asset prices will find a bottom, as housing is starting to do now. My view is that the post-deflation economy will remain sluggish with high unemployment for some time. I believe that, unlike Japan, we will eventually see inflation.

There are significant differences between our economy and Japan’s and the comparison to Japan in the 1990s may not be entirely applicable here. The Japanese were reluctant to let banks and companies fail, but, despite a few notable exceptions, we aren’t. This is a necessary requirement for recovery, and we are better at “creative destruction” than are the Japanese.

Also, we have a more dynamic culture of entrepreneurship than Japan, making us more responsive to a recovery. However, the main difference is that Japan’s debt was largely financed internally due to their very high savings rate in the 1990s (about 14%). While our savings rate will continue to grow, I do not believe it will keep up with rising federal deficits, and we will need to finance our national debt on the international markets. This will drive interest rates up and put pressure on the dollar.

Then I believe inflation will assert itself as banks renew the lending cycle. I believe the Fed will maintain its loose monetary policy in order to keep interest rates down to stimulate growth. Governments always find it expedient to create inflation to give people the impression that the economy is growing. The problem is that inflation will depress the formation of real savings necessary to finance growth, and like the 1970s, we’ll see stagnation and inflation (”Stagflation”). If inflation gets out of hand, then, for a while we may see price and wage controls.

After that, who knows? Cut the money supply as Paul Volker did, and drive up interest rates and bring on a new recession? Continue to inflate? That’s too far in the future and politicians don’t think that far ahead.

In the near term, we think the prospects for job growth look incredibly bleak. Banks aren’t lending. Companies aren’t hiring or investing heavily in R&D, and corporate profits are up only because of cost cutting measures, like layoffs, rather than bottom line revenue growth.

In the long term, however, certain industries look primed to blossom like plastics did in the 70s and semiconductors, personal PCs, and telecom did in the 80s and 90s. Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture points out ten niche industries he thinks will fill in the gaps and push the world economy forward. Here are his top ten (listed in order of biggest near term potential.)

1. Nano Technology

2. Green Energy

3. Battery technology

4. Genomics/Stem Cell Research

5. Web 2.0/3.0

6. Robotics

7. Life extension Technologies

8. Bio-Agriculture

9. Atmospheric Engineering

10. Terra forming/Extra Planetary Colonization

Another one we’d add to his list is human computer interaction technology (HCIT). HCIT is a new breakthrough technology that is set to change the way we interact with computers. It works by using tiny chips installed under the surface of electronic devices. When activated, the chips deliver a “touch” response that you can actually feel.

So let’s say you had an HCIT-enabled computer mouse – and you moved the cursor over the picture of a beach. Even though you’re actually touching a flat mouse button, this technology makes it feel like you’re touching sand… or even rolling waves. The chips send the message to your fingers like a speaker sends a message to your ears.

It’s pretty incredible technology. Microsoft, BMW, Sony and Samsung have already jumped on board. So how can you make money in this emerging multibillion dollar market. Karim Rahemtulla of Mt. Vernon Research outlines exactly how to profit from the coming boom here.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares rose 1 percent to 978.34 points. Over the week, the index climbed 1.2 percent, its sixth weekly gain in the last seven weeks.

The European benchmark index is up more than 51 percent from its lifetime low of March 9, as investors have become more confident on the prospects of economic recovery.

“Things look good for the time being, but the higher we go the more we could be setting ourselves up for a disappointment,” said Andy Lynch, a fund manager at Schroders.

“The world economy is doing well, French and German GDP are positive, but that’s not surprising given the amount of stimulus being pumped into the market. I have a concern about what happens when the sugar rush is withdrawn, though that may be a problem for 2010, rather than now.”

Nokia rose 3.1 percent, taking its gain in the last three sessions to 9.9 percent, with traders citing positive momentum following the announcement of its first Linux phone to compete with Apple’s iPhone.

STMicroelectronics rose 12.4 percent after a bullish note on the chipmaker from Banc of America-Merrill Lynch, which raised its price target for the stock by 17 percent to 7 euros, and retained its “buy” rating.

The sector was further boosted by upbeat statements from U.S. bellwethers. Intel raised its third-quarter outlook and results at Dell were ahead of forecasts.

Macroeconomic news was also mostly positive. U.S. consumer spending rose as expected in July, lifted by the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” programme that fuelled demand for autos. The Commerce Department said spending rose 0.2 percent after rising by a revised 0.6 percent in June, previously reported as a 0.4 percent gain.

The European benchmark had risen to a 10-month high of 986.59 before gains were tempered by Reuters/University of Michigan surveys showing U.S. consumer confidence falling to its lowest level in four months in August on worries over high unemployment and dismal personal finances.

L’OREAL RISES

Among other individual movers, L’Oreal advanced 7.4 percent to a 10-month high after the French beauty products giant posted better-than-expected first-half profit.

French conglomerate Bouygues surged 9.1 percent after raising its full-year sales target and posting better-than-expected first-half results.

Commerzbank jumped 7.2 percent on talk Germany might be seeking to reduce its stake in the country’s second-largest bank. A spokesman for the finance ministry denied the speculation.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA , Italy’s biggest retail bank, rose 2.4 percent as second-quarter profit beat analysts’ forecast and it confirmed its outlook for the full year.

Other banks to rise in the heavyweight sector included Barclays , HSBC , Lloyds , Societe Generale and UBS , up between 1.3 and 6.3 percent.

Miners rose as copper touched 11-month highs. BHP Billiton , Anglo American , Rio Tinto and Xstrata rose between 1.7 and 4.4 percent.

A slew of macroeconomic data also signalled improving conditions in Europe. Britain’s economy shrank a smaller-than-expected 0.7 percent in the second quarter. Euro zone economic sentiment, too, improved more than expected in August.

Britain’s FTSE 100 <.FTSE> index closed 0.8 percent higher. It has gained 6.5 percent in August. The London market will be closed on Monday for a holiday.

Germany’s DAX <.GDAXI> and France’s CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 0.9 and 1.2 percent, respectively.

“There is only one clear trend in the market and that’s on the upside. People are coming back with a lot of inflows in favour of equities and outflows are coming from the money market,” said Romain Boscher, head of equity management at Groupama Asset Management, in Paris.

Aug 28 (Reuters)

The Dow rose 155 points on Friday. And today, stocks are rising in Asia. Oil is over $74. Gold rose $13 on Friday… to close at $954. And the dollar is killing us softly… sinking to $1.43 per euro on Friday.

Stocks and oil are at their highest levels so far this year. With such profits at hand people figure they don’t need the dollar. Investors run to the safety of the greenback when financial storms approach. But now… they think it will be clear sailing.

“Worlds bankers suggest rebound may be under way,” says a headline at the New York Times.

Is the world economy really recovering? Should you buy stocks now to take advantage of this new bull market?

You already know the answer, don’t you, dear reader.

After a fall comes a bounce. And along with the bounce come a lot of silly ideas. You see how it works? “Markets make opinions,” say the old timers on Wall Street. When stocks are going up investors find reasons why they are going up. Pretty soon, they’ve convinced themselves that they’ll go up forever.

But bounces do not last forever. They aren’t giant turtles… they’re moths. After a few months of flitting around bright lights, they dry up. When exactly this summer of winged love will end, we don’t know. September or October is our guess. But we have little doubt it will come to an end soon.

Ultimately, stock prices depend on earnings. People compare the rate of return they can get from stocks to what they can get from other investments. Rising earnings signal higher rates of return, so investors pay more.

During the great credit expansion of 1945-2007, businesses could anticipate, generally, rising earnings. People were buying more and more things on credit. In a national economy, businesses pay wages and then the employees use the wages to buy products. The wages are a ‘cost’ to the business… but they are also the source of business revenue. When sales come from credit, on the other hand, businesses have the revenue but no wage cost. Profits go up.

Now, the cycle has turned. Businesses still have the wage cost. But instead of using the money to buy things, the employee uses it to repay loans for purchases made last year or the year before. Now the business has the cost but not the revenue.

As they say in the economic textbooks: bummer.

The process of de-leveraging will be slow. Maybe 5 years. Maybe 15. Maybe 25. It will up and down… with high unemployment (businesses will cut their wage costs as sales fail to recover)… low prices (at least in real terms)… low profits… and slow growth, or none at all.

Is that bad? No, not at all. It’s good. Economies need to adjust to the new realities of the post-credit bubble world. It will take time. And with the world’s financial authorities fighting it every step of the way… it could take a LONG time. As we’ve explained in these Daily Reckonings, government is a profoundly conservative, parasite-protecting enterprise. It cannot draw forth the future – it has no idea what the future will be. Instead, all it can do is to try to recover the past. That’s the idea of the ‘recovery’… to try to coddle, protect and pay-off yesterday’s success stories. From Wall Street to welfare… governments attempt to prevent correction.

And more thoughts:

*** The Obama administration announced that it expects $9 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years. One of the great mysteries of our time is: where will the money come from? As we pointed out last week, even if every dollar of US savings is applied to the task, the feds will still be short. And if they make up the difference with funny money – from their quantitative easing scam – the Chinese vigilantes are likely to get cheesed off and dump their US Treasury bonds.

The evidence shows that the Chinese…and other Asians…are already trying to lighten up on their US debt holdings. This from the New York Times:

“Figures released by the Treasury Department this week indicated that China reduced its holdings of Treasury securities by $25 billion in June, the most China had ever sold in a month.

Monthly figures can be volatile, and can be revised, so it is risky to draw conclusions from one month’s data. In May, China increased its holdings by $38 billion, according to the Treasury figures.

“Nonetheless, the decline highlighted a fact… Asia’s appetite for Treasury securities is not growing as fast as it once did. That means the United States will have to turn to other buyers, including American citizens, who are now saving as they did not do during the boom years, to finance the deficits… In the first half of 2009, China and Hong Kong acquired only 9 percent of the more than $800 billion worth of Treasuries that were sold.

“ Japan, which was replaced by China as the largest foreign holder of Treasuries last year, has been a larger buyer this year, taking up 11 percent of the new supply of Treasuries.

“Ownership of US Treasuries by China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand — since 1994 — rose to 25 percent, from less than 8 percent. Since then, as budget deficits in the United States grew, the share has fluctuated within a narrow range. In June, it was 24.7 percent.”

If Asians don’t finance US debts, who will? We don’t know… But the fewer bonds Asians buy… the more they are bought with funny money by the Fed. And the more the Fed buys with funny money the fewer Asians want to buy with real money.

How will this end? Badly…we keep saying. There is no way out. Either the feds cease spending more than they can raise honestly, by taxation and reasonable borrowing. Or, the system runs into chronic, mega deficits…like the chronic deficits in the private sector during the bubble years. Then, it blows up.

That is why we caution readers against the dollar and against Treasuries. Most likely, they will both go up this autumn…as investors flee to safety from the next market downturn. But the chances of them blowing up completely are too great. That’s why we stick with gold – even though we would not at all be surprised by a period of weakness in the gold market.

*** On Friday night, we went to a ‘dinner in white’ at a nearby chateau. It was a jolly affair, at an ancient chateau entirely surrounded by a moat.

We set up our table, alongside the others. We gathered for drinks. We saw old friends. And then we prepared for dinner.

Why “white?” The dinner marks the occasion of the Assumption of the Virgin. It’s held each year in this rural area of France. Everyone brings a full dinner service – table, chairs, candles, etc. etc. Then, after setting up outside, under the stars… there’s a twist. Couples switch around so that your editor ends up having dinner with a woman to whom he is not married.

Having dinner with someone else’s wife can be a delight. At least, you have nothing to argue about. But how much of a delight it is depends entirely – or perhaps mostly – on chance.

In our case, we were trebly lucky. In front of us was a charming woman who turned out to be a relative of many people we already knew. So we kept up a lively conversation about cousins, uncles, aunts… family tragedies… and upcoming marriages. On our right, was a cute woman with a bright smile and a friendly manner. On our left, was another charming woman with a shrewd, fast wit.

Time passed quickly. We crossed swords with the woman on our left – over education policies. We chatted with the woman in front of us – about family, the weather, local trends, food and whatever. We flirted with the woman on our right:

“Do you come to these dinners often,” we asked.

“About as often as you do,” came the reply, “once a year.”

“Well, the dinners suit you. You look very nice in white.”

“Thanks… but I really don’t have any choice. It’s a ‘dinner in white,’ after all. If I had a choice, I’d wear black.”

“Why… because you have a black, cruel heart? Or is it because you are in a sad mood? I hope not. And if so, perhaps I can cheer you up by telling you joke. How many Belgians does it take to change a lightbulb?”

“I’ve heard that one.”

“Then why does the guy from Belgium go to sleep with one full glass of water next to his bed and one empty glass?”

“I don’t know… why?”

“Because he never knows if he’ll be thirsty or not when he wakes up in the night.”

“Oh…”

Source: The Future Will Come

But an early rally in U.S. stocks faded about midday in New York after Treasuries rose as investors swooped in to take advantage of sharp losses on Friday.

Oil rose to a 10-month high near $75 a barrel and other commodities also surged as optimism that major economies were pulling out of recession drove hopes of rebounding demand. .

Global stocks as measured by MSCI’s all-country world index <.MIWD00000PUS> rose 1.2 percent and was on track for a fifth straight session of gains.

The yen fell while the U.S. dollar slid against commodity currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as investors became more comfortable with riskier trades given the upbeat assessment of the world economy.

“Economic data is in favor of a stronger recovery than expected. We can be quite bullish on risky assets,” said Romain Boscher, head of equity management at Groupama Asset Management.

Euro zone industrial new orders in June rebounded 3.1 percent month-on-month, or more than expected, the European Union statistics office Eurostat said.

In the United States, economic activity improved again in July from extremely weak levels earlier this year, suggesting the recession is waning, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed.

In addition, China’s latest data for July indicated that while growth was moderating after a strong second quarter, the recovery remained on track to achieve the government’s goal of 8 percent growth for the full year.

“The Chinese news was good and we had some positive news out of Europe as well,” said Rob Montefusco, a trader at Sucden Financial in London. “Technicals are pointing upwards.”

But U.S. stocks pared earlier gains. About 1 p.m. (1300 GMT), the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was up 15.34 points, or 0.16 percent, at 9,521.30. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index <.SPX> was up 1.11 points, or 0.11 percent, at 1,027.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 1.49 points, or 0.07 percent, at 2,019.41.

European shares hit their highest closing level in nearly 10 months, boosted by banks and miners.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares ended 0.9 percent up at 975.19 points, the highest closing level since early November.

Banks were among top gainers, with DJ STOXX banking index <.SX7P> rising 1.8 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei average <.N225> jumped 3.4 percent, booosted by hopes for a global recovery and lifted by camera maker Canon Inc <7751.T> and other exporters.

Investors increased their risk-taking in the wake of stronger-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data and upbeat comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Copper prices rose to their highest in more than a week, helped by strong investment demand and bets the economic crisis is petering out.

Jesper Dannesbee, a senior commodities strategist at Societe General, said real demand has not improved that much it but will improve gradually through the year.

“This is follow through from Friday. There is a general appetite for risky assets driven by cheap money and lax monetary policy,” Dannesbee said.

Gold edged below $950 an ounce, under pressure from a firmer dollar, but remained rangebound as support from higher oil prices and investor demand prevented it falling further.

Spot gold was at $949.80 per ounce

U.S. Treasury debt prices rose, with the 30-year bond gaining more than a full point, as investors did some bargain hunting after Friday’s sharp losses and after the Federal Reserve bought government debt.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 19/32 in price to yield about 3.49 percent.

Benchmark euro zone government bonds ended flat as data bolstered the recovery view, but caution on its sustainability eased the selling pressure.

“The stock market has been the barometer for growth and potential inflation,” said Troy Buckner, managing principal of NuWave Investment Management in Morristown, New Jersey. “And yes. it’s been an extreme correlation between equity market movements and commodities, especially copper, aluminum and crude oil.”

But Buckner said that prices have climbed “too far too fast,” leading his firm to short crude and heating oil, while reducing long positions in copper and aluminum.

Euro zone government bonds ended flat as economic data bolstered the view the global economic recovery is under way but caution about the recovery eased selling pressure. Investors worried whether new U.S. debt issuance this week would be welcomed by buyers.

U.S. crude rose 51 cents to $74.40 a barrel.

Aug 24 (Reuters)

Solid U.S. and euro zone data and an upbeat assessment on the economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke over the weekend earlier pushed investors to take on riskier investments at the expense of the the low-yielding yen and dollar.

“Conventional wisdom suggests that major currencies should trade within their recent ranges until liquidity improves after the Labor Day holiday,” said Wells Fargo currency strategist Vassili Serebriakov. “However, there is plenty of data in the U.S. and elsewhere to change that this week, with consumer-related numbers likely to be watched closely.”

Investors are looking ahead to upcoming U.S. and European data to confirm hopes that the world economy is improving.

The dollar was last up 0.1 percent at 94.49 yen while the euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.4304 . Against the yen, the euro was unchanged at 135.20 yen .

The euro trimmed losses against the greenback after data showing much higher-than-expected euro zone industrial orders in June.

Sterling fell 0.6 percent on the day at $1.6405 .

The euro , meanwhile, hit an 11-week high against sterling at 87.27 pence, according to Reuters data.

Traders said the euro was pushed past a key options barrier at 87 pence, setting up further gains in the pair, while analysts said expectations for persistently low UK interest rates were weighing on the British currency.

The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting over the weekend offered a variety of opinions about the global economy, with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acting as the cheerleader for growth.

But traders are keen to see how the euro zone economy fares, especially after higher-than-forecast purchasing managers’ index readings last week. Germany’s Ifo survey of business sentiment will be key this week, analysts said.

The U.S. Conference Board will release its August consumer confidence index on Tuesday, followed by the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment snapshot on Friday.

Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and one of the few economists who accurately predicted the magnitude of the current crisis, wrote in The Financial Times on Monday that there’s still a “big risk” of a double-dip recession.

Allan Meltzer, a political economy professor at Carnegie Mellon University, also told Reuters that the flood of money the Fed and Treasury have injected into the banking sector and economy since the crisis began will soon threaten the dollar.

“Will the Chinese continue to buy the trillions of dollars worth of debt that the Treasury intends to put out every year? We don’t know, but if not, the pressure will be on the Fed to keep buying it, and my guess is that’s going to be inflationary over the next couple of years, and the dollar will suffer,” he said.

Aug 24 (Reuters)

Two important headlines this morning, both of them fraudulent:

“Chinese economy bounces back,” says one headline in theInternational Herald Tribune.

“JPMorgan profit soars despite downturn,” says another.

The average reader or TV viewer will go no further. “Ah,” he says to himself, “good news; the worst is over. China is a green shoot as big as the Amazon. And JPMorgan is a leader in the financial sector. If the financial sector is doing well, the whole world economy must be doing well.”

But here at The Daily Reckoning, we can’t help ourselves. If we see a silver lining, we look for the cloud. We see garbage…we look for the rat…

We begin with the JPMorgan profit announcement, because it is the most intriguing. Let us set the stage:

In the last half century, credit has expanded faster even than dress sizes. Naturally, this has made the business of hawking credit extremely profitable. Profits in the financial sector soared to 40% of the U.S. total. And every momma wanted her baby to grow up to be an investment banker.

But then, in 2007 & 2008, the bubble in the financial sector popped. Many banks and financial institutions went broke…or had to be bailed out by the government. Instead of being the world’s highest-flying industry…finance became the scene of its biggest crash.

And now, from all we’ve been able to detect, a fundamental shift has occurred. People are no longer eager to go deeper and deeper into debt. Instead, they are eager to pay off debt…that is, to rid themselves of finance…and to get as far away from the financial sector as possible. Savings rates, for example, have gone from zero to 7% in just the last 12 months.

But in the midst of this remarkable and historic change, we get news that at least a couple of the biggest firms in the financial sector – JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs – are making billions in profits:

“Even as it weathers the worst economic downturn in decades, JPMorgan Chase said Thursday that it had made a $2.7 billion second-quarter profit as a result of stellar trading and investment banking results.”

This was essentially the same story we got from Goldman. Neither bank made its money the old fashioned way — by lending to worthy projects; they made their dough by “trading” and “investment banking.” In other words, they made billions from speculation.

Anyone who takes this as evidence of a recovering economy should work for the government. Only a government economist or a mental defective (excuse us for being redundant) could believe that genuine prosperity can be built on a foundation of speculating by large financial institutions. You can see why by asking a simple question:whom were they trading against?

Speculating is a zero-sum game. No matter who wins, the economy is not a bit better off; it has not a centime more in resources. Goldman and JPMorgan report earning, together, more than $6 billion. Who was on the other side of that trade?

There is also something fishy about the whole thing. Trading is not only a zero-sum game, it’s a game of chance. Traders lose money about as often as they make it. Of course, normally, the traders at the big banks have an advantage; they are not idiots. They make money by taking it away from the amateur traders, who are idiots. But what amateur traders put up $6 billion?

Our guess: the fix is in. They are taking advantage of the feds’ stimulus programs…and trading against the biggest patsy in the world, the U.S. taxpayer. How? We’ll find out how, later…

Meanwhile, there is the news that China is back in business.

“Government spending pushes GDP growth to 7.9% for 2nd quarter,” reports the IHT, “…fueled by a large economic stimulus package and aggressive bank lending…a surprisingly strong showing during the global economic downturn…

“…while most other major economies are contracting and suffering from the worst economic crisis in decades, China appears to have turned a corner…

“Growth in the second quarter was driven by strong auto and property sales, a rebound in manufacturing and huge infrastructure spending, which was propping up global commodity prices.”

Further investigation reveals that bank lending and property speculation have gone wild. (More on this in today’s essay, below…) And stocks in Shanghai are up 75% so far this year.

Now, let’s try to get this straight. The world is in a slump. China sells stuff to the world. And yet, China is booming.

How could it be? Again, there’s something fishy about it…as if the government were jiving the figures…as if the speculators had taken leave of their senses…and as if the whole thing were just the result of the same kind of misguided ‘stimulus’ that got us into trouble in the first place…

The Richebacher Letter’s Rob Parenteau agrees that something isn’t quite right. “Ask anyone who’s done business there. Keeping a double set of books in China isn’t just common, it’s considered ‘good strategy.’ You’ve also got under-regulated Chinese banks hiding as much as $500 billion in bad debts — China’s own version of ‘subprime’ loans to small businesses and Asian property speculators.

“On top of that, you’ve got a $40 billion tab left over from the Beijing Olympics… and a $140 billion tab for rebuilding Sichuan after their 2008 earthquake.”

Boom…boom…ka-booooom!

Source:  The Zero-Sum Game of Speculation

In fact, in the face of a stagnant world economy unrivaled since the Great Depression, we’re now looking at an era of competitive currency devaluations – where every country tries to keep its own currency from rising too much.

Far too many investors are either unaware of these efforts, or dismiss these currency strategies as bureaucratic wrangling. But I’ve been watching this unfold for the past eight years, and have made a significant amount of money from this insight.

And there’s still a substantial profit to be made – for those who understand just what’s happening.

When Strength Leads to Weakness

Since about 2001, whenever any currency rises too much, the local manufacturers or farmers – or anyone who lives by exporting – start to scream about it. Their local governments respond by doing all they can to lower the value of that currency, having it fall in value and thus making exports cheaper – all this in the hope that the domestic economy will become better.

Pick any period so far in this young century and you’ll see that this is true. For instance, right now you see it in those countries whose currencies have soared the most in the last few months.

Let’s focus on the recent highest-flying currencies. The New Zealand dollar soared 23.6% against the U.S. dollar from mid-March through mid-June. That’s the best three-month performance for the Kiwi dollar since way back in 1971, when currencies began floating against each other.

And over 2009, as a whole so far, the strongest currency has been the South African rand, which has soared 18.3% against the dollar since Jan.1, the best performer of all the 16 major currencies. Other currencies that have been strong have been the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar (both
up 13% since 2009 began) and the Australian dollar (up 14.6%).

It should be no surprise that all these countries have been making noises and taking action to try to reverse that trend. Take New Zealand. This is a country that depends on exports, especially agricultural exports. Total export prices have plunged 8.2% from 2008’s last quarter to 2009’s first quarter. This is not an annualized rate, either, but a quarter-to-quarter drop. If continued at that rate, it would mean a 33% fall in export income over the year. According toFonterra Co-operative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter, New Zealand farmers have suffered a 12% drop in milk prices over the last few weeks. The dairy industry accounts for 20% of New Zealand’s export earnings.

As The New Zealand Herald stated in an article on June 16: “That (the plunge in income for New Zealand dairy producers) explains why Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard (New Zealand’s counterpart to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke) last week called the exchange rate rise against the U.S. dollar ‘unhelpful’ and a ‘real risk to us‘ as the country endures the deepest recession in three decades.”

The same article goes on to quote the head of the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association, John Walley: “We don’t see any green shoots in our markets both at home and abroad. And the high exchange rate is strangling any ’shoots’ that are poking their heads up.”

The New Zealand monetary authorities are doing all they can do cheapen their dollar. That includes slashing interest rates to just 2.5%, which is a shock to those of us who remember Kiwi interest rates as being the highest in the world. They are printing money and talking about actively intervening in the currency markets to sell their dollar short. New Zealand’s finance minister, Bill English, just came right out and said that his government would prefer a weaker currency.

I could go on and on. The Australian treasury secretary, Ken Henry, just announced, in language as radical as finance ministers usually get: “If today’s high exchange rates continue, that would imply downside risk to the economy.”

However, I don’t sense as grave concern at the rise of the Aussie dollar as I do with the people of New Zealand about their currency. Thus, it would not surprise me to see the Kiwi fall versus the Aussie, or, put another way, the Aussie falling less than the Kiwi.

Additional Global Currency Concerns

Moving on to Canada, we see that its central bank just announced that the  ”unprecedentedly rapid rise” of the Canadian dollar may “fully offset” any hope for economic recovery.

South Africa’s central bank has just announced that it has a policy of buying U.S. dollars in order to cheapen the rand. That country’s version of Bernanke, Tito Mboweni, said that although he used to be against intervention in the currency markets, the soaring South African rand has caused him to change his mind.

You can see why. Exports and domestic retail sales are plunging due to the high value of the rand. South Africa’s unemployment rate is now 23.5%, the highest of all 61 countries tracked by Bloomberg. Interest rates have been slashed this year from 7.5% to the current 4.5%, but this is not enough for the Union of Metalworkers, which has threatened to strike if interest rates are not cut more.

Finally, let’s look at Norway. Here is a European country, yet it does not use the euro, preferring instead to keep its own currency. This currency has risen by 13% so far this year against both the euro and the U.S. dollar. So are they happy about it in Oslo? Not very.

The strong currency has hit demand for Norway’s exports hard. In response to this, companies have cut staff, which in turn cuts domestic demand. Also, big companies laying people off is a very un-Norwegian thing to do. The world’s second-largest newsprint maker, Norske Skogindistrier ASA just announced job cutbacks. This has been something of a shock, even though the decline of newspapers should have been a warning. Newspapers just don’t want to pay higher prices for newsprint when the currency these products are denominated in has risen so much this year.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, up for re-election this September, has said that supporting the labor market through this crisis – Norway’s first recession in more than 20 years (the last one coming when oil prices plunged back in the 1980s) – is his very top priority. He has pledged whatever money it takes to try to stimulate spending. And though, as far as I know, no one has publicly said that they want a lower krone, the central bank has cut interest rates fully seven times in the last eight months. It is now down to 1.25%, and stands ready to go lower.

One thing that’s important to remember: This is just a snapshot of those currencies that find themselves the strongest risers so far this year. At any given time in the last few years, whichever currencies have been strongest have screamed about their plight.

A year ago, for instance, with a euro at $1.60, Germany – a huge exporting country – basically said it wanted a cheaper euro. It got what it was seeking: The euro fell to $1.23 within months, but is now drifting back up. The United Kingdom wanted its high-flying pound – then at $2.10 – to fall to boost domestic and foreign demand for its goods. It got its wish: Within months the pound had plunged to $1.45. And on it has gone for a few years now.

A few years ago, Americans were angry that the Chinese had such a cheap currency and forced it to float. In the four years since that happened, China’s yuan has risen about 24% against the dollar and you don’t hear so many American threats. (Of course, this could also be because China owns so much U.S debt and America does not want to antagonize its largest lender).

Source: Global Currency Wars Reveal the World’s Best Money Plays

[Editor's Note: Part I of two installments. Look for Part II tomorrow.]

As currencies expert Alex Merk of Merk Mutual Funds wrote recently, “Russian President Medvedev suggests the dollar is on its way out; Russian Finance minister Kudrin says there is no substitute for the dollar. The Chinese see a need to diversify out of the dollar; the Japanese say their trust in the dollar is unshakable.” What’s a poor investor to think?

Merk says Russia’s and China’s – along with fellow BRIC nations India and Brazil – concern over the stability of the dollar and their need to diversify out of dollar-denominated assets is a strategic perspective. As he rightly points out, “There is simply no substitute for the U.S. dollar today; no other market is as deep and liquid, or able to absorb the cash that needs to be deployed by central banks around the world.”

Does this mean the dollar is safe and sound? Not by a long shot. This, again, from Merk:

[We] believe countries around the world are racing to put the “tools” in place to be less dependent on the US dollar. In Asia, for example, after the 1997/1998 financial crisis, Asian countries realized they needed to bolster their countries’ reserves. In the latest crisis, they realized that holding almost exclusively U.S. dollar reserves was a risky strategy. The solution is all too obvious, namely to develop domestic markets. This isn’t just about developing domestic consumption to create a more “balanced” world economy, this is about creating domestic infrastructures, fixed income markets in particular. Currently, many global investors invest in Asian markets by buying US dollar denominated securities plus derivatives. This makes Asian issuers – governments, supranational and corporate issuers alike highly dependent on the US dollar. This will only change if global investors have confidence in the stability and maturity of the local markets. The message to “CEOs” of countries around the world is to show that they are open and ready for business. Such trust is not earned overnight. In Asia, Singapore is a leader; not surprisingly, Singapore has a healthy domestic fixed income market. China is on its way, but needs to do more to provide access to its domestic markets.

It other words, global diversification away from the dollar may not happen today or tomorrow. But the risk to the dollar – and to long-term US economic growth – is real.

Notes readers may want to do something about diversifying their portfolio allocation to hedge against this outcome. As usual we recommend considering beefing up the hard assets side of your portfolio and adding TIPS into the mix, too.

If you’re serious about investing in hard assets, we highly recommend you read this special investor report from Crisis Trader editor Christian DeHaemer on what he calls the “Great Red Oil War.”

Of course, you could also choose to trade currencies directly. For information on how to follow master forex trader Bill Jenkins to currency trading profits, click here.

The thing that bothers us most is the supposed solution to the problem – more easy money – is also the intrinsic cause. Governments around the world want to “reinflate” the economy. But we know there’s a fine line between “reinflation” and “inflation.” Hence our uneasy sleep.

Will’s father, Bill, has made a quick tally of the funny money entering the system. “The US Federal Reserve,” he writes in The Daily Reckoning, “has been authorized to “print” $1.75 trillion worth of new money in order to buy Treasury bonds. The Bank of England has its own program – worth £75 billion, so far. Even Switzerland has been printing money – so much that its money supply, as measured by M2, is growing at 30% per year. And two weeks ago, the European Central Bank announced that it too would begin creating money in order to buy corporate bonds.”

The question, of course, is where does this money go after it is born? And what effect does it have on the economy?

We like to call all this newly printed money “Abracadabra money.” Bill is more direct. He calls it “counterfeit money.” But whatever you call it, determining where it will end up and what kind of trouble it will cause is never straightforward. It seems like Bill is having nightmares too.

We thought the Bubble Epoch was the peak in claptrap and illusions. But we were only in the foothills. The feds now pretend to bail out the economy by giving money to companies that pretend to be concerned, run by people who pretend to know what they are doing. And when they run short of money, they create more of it, pretend it is real… and pretend they can tell it what to do.

What is likely is that money will have a mind of its own. First, the markets will react…and the authorities will not. They will remember their own critiques of Japanese and Roosevelt-era monetary policy. In both cases, they believe central banks removed the punch bowl too early – before the party really got rolling. In both cases, the recovery was cut off.

Then, while they are hesitating, money will turn on them. Inflation rates will rise further. The velocity of money will pick up. And investors – including foreign governments – will become eager sellers of government debt. Suddenly, it will be too late. In order to remove the monetary inflation they previously added, central banks will have to sell bonds, instead of buying them, trying to reabsorb money from the economy. The extra cash will then disappear back into the central banks. But in order to bring inflation under control, the biggest bond buyers in the world must turn into the world’s biggest sellers. Bond prices, already falling as investors fear the worst, will collapse immediately. An avalanche of dollars will fall upon the world markets – as dollar holders all over the world become desperate to get rid of them.

We don’t know what day it will happen. But we have a good idea as to what time of day central bankers will realize that they are doomed. About 4am is our guess. That is the moment when Ben Bernanke and other central bankers begin to feel like members of the Donner Party.