Oil fell more than $2 towards $34 a barrel on Monday after Russia and Ukraine signed a 10-year gas deal clearing the way for the resumption of supplies to a freezing Europe.

Implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza also eased supply concerns as the market remained under pressure from expectations that the weakening global economy would erode oil demand.

“Right now the economy is dominating,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, analyst at BNP Paribas. “The market is very volatile and the signs are that demand is weakening.”

U.S. crude oil futures for February delivery dipped to a low of $33.89, down $2.62, before recovering to trade at $34.53 by 1800 GMT.

Traders said the February U.S. crude oil futures contract, which expires on Tuesday, also fell because of very high stocks at the delivery point for the U.S. futures contract.

Only just over 3,100 lots were traded on the February U.S. crude contract. The March contract was much more active as more than 31,000 lots changed hands.

London Brent crude for March fell to a low of $43.80, down $2.77, before edging back up to around $44.50.

GAS FLOWS

The agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which set a final price for 2009 supplies, is expected to lead to the restart of flows of Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine within the next 36 hours.

Also easing concern about energy supplies, Israeli forces began to pull out of the Gaza Strip following a tentative truce with Hamas after the three-week war, easing tension in a region which pumps about a third of the world’s oil.

Prices came under pressure on Friday after the International Energy Agency, an adviser to industrialised countries, predicted a fall in world oil demand in 2009.

OPEC, the oil exporters’ group, has cut production three times since September to try to stem falling prices. It might consider reducing output again, Algeria’s oil minister Chakib Khelil said on Saturday.

Oil has collapsed by more than $110 a barrel since reaching a record high of $147.27 a barrel in the summer as the global economic slowdown has eroded demand and consumer spending.

Still, some in the oil market think there is little room for prices to fall much further.

“It looks as if Brent will hold in the current $40-$50 range,” said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Commodities. “I do not anticipate new lows.”

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters)

Global oil demand is not going to “plummet.”  And for the FT to say so is just plain silly, if not irresponsible.  OK, I know.  There’s an old saying that they teach in journalism schools.  “You have to sell newspapers.”  But this declaration by the FT highlights the perils of letting a headline-writer do your thinking for you.  It’s what I call “arguing a screaming conclusion.”  And a wrong conclusion at that.

Oil Demand – Down, Then Up

But let’s move past the headlines.  The Financial Times article explains that the World Bank has just issued a new study.  The World Bank believes that the world is entering into the toughest economic times “since the Great Depression.”  Thus overall world oil demand may fall by about half a million barrels per day in 2009.  That’s what the World Bank states in its report.

Only half a million barrels?  Heck, the total world demand for oil in the past year was about 87 million barrels per day (a fact that the FT article fails to note).  By comparison, the Saudi oil tanker that was hijacked off the coast of Somalia held two million barrels of crude oil.  And despite this act of piracy oil prices still fell over the next couple of weeks, even without that tanker plying its route across the deep blue seas.

So if the world experiences the next “Great Depression” (Release 2.0, I guess), a reduction in overall oil demand of half a million barrels per day is down in the statistical noise.  And what the World Bank is saying about the grim future of the world economy is not the equivalent of “plummeting” demand.  At least, not half a million barrels of lower usage.

How Bad Is It?

How bad is it out there?  Well, according to this week’s MasterCard Spending-Pulse data, U.S. retail gasoline demand is back to about the same levels it showed earlier in 2008.  That is, high gas prices hurt demand over the summer and into the fall.  (I drove less.  Didn’t you?)  But the current low fuel prices have evidently allowed demand to recover.  People are driving more.  It’s basic Economics 101.

I was talking with an economist for the American Petroleum Institute about two weeks ago.  He told me that overall gasoline demand in October was down 3%, year-to-year.  But diesel fuel usage was up by the same amount.  Overall U.S. oil demand is down about 8%, but that reflects the slowing use of oil in industry.  Out on the road, people are still driving and trucks are still hauling.

For all the sound and fury about the run-up in oil and fuel prices through July, and then the fall in prices after that, the aggregate demand for oil is only changing at the margins.

Built-In Oil Demand

In both the developed and developing worlds, there’s a lot of oil demand built into the economic and social energy system.   That’s what modern development is all about.  That’s how the system was built over the past 100 years or so.  Yes, you can wish that the system were different.  You can even try to change the system – and risk collapsing it in the process.

Whatever you do, you can’t change the system very fast.  To paraphrase a former Secretary of Defense, “You live in the world with the energy system you have.  Not the energy system you might wish you had.”

So at best, if you want to change things you are looking at a generational shift.  If you have a generation.  Do we have a generation?

What Will OPEC Do?

Let’s try looking at some different numbers.  How about 7 million barrels of oil per day?  That’s the amount of output that OPEC might have to shut-in if it wants to get prices headed back upwards in to the range of $75 per barrel or so.  At least, that’s according to Philip Verleger, a long-time industry player as quoted recently in Platt’s industry newsletter The Barrel.

Current daily oil output from OPEC is about 32 million barrels per day.  Verleger thinks that OPEC’s output ought to be more like 25 million barrels per day.  There’s the 7 million barrel shift.  Easy, right?  It would be as if Iran, Iraq and Qatar simply stopped exporting oil.  How likely is that to happen?  Umm… yes.  Clearly, Verleger has a radical take on things.

One way or another, can OPEC cut production significantly?  Does OPEC have the discipline to manage its own affairs to cut 2 million barrels, or 4 million, let alone 7 million barrels per day?   The issue is that numerous OPEC nations cheat on their production quotas.  Hey, they need the money.  Thus they lift the oil and sell it.  Really, cheating on OPEC quotas is not a problem.  It’s a tradition.

What of the Future?

Looking ahead by more than about two years, world oil demand is certainly going to grow.  It almost does not matter what we do in the U.S. or Europe.  When you look at the numbers of young people who are already born and living and growing up in the developing world, the demand will be there.  Many of these young people already have a cell phone and a laptop computer.  When they finish school, they will want an apartment and a car.

And at the rate things are going, the energy industry is still under-investing in the necessary systems of the future.  Depletion is still ongoing.  It gets back to the very basic point that every barrel you lift from the ground leaves one less barrel down there.  And the overall global depletion rate is 6% at best.  Maybe it’s 8%.  It might be 10%.  To replace that depletion, the general trend is for the energy industry to go further away, to deeper waters or more remote sites, to drill deeper wells, with hotter temperatures and higher pressures.  Those little hydrocarbon molecules are just plain tough to catch.

And keep in mind that nobody can produce oil that has not been discovered.  Or developed.  Or for which there are no handling facilities.  That takes investment, and lots of it.  Which requires money and finance, which is in rather short supply just now.  So there are just a few years in which the world can reorder the way it does oil, let alone the big picture on energy.  And there are a lot of moving parts in all of this.

The Moving Parts of Oil Production

One of our fellow (sister, actually) readers is deeply involved in monitoring the world oil situation.  The other day she sent me a thoughtful list of “ifs” that have to happen just to begin to get future oil production on firm ground.  Here it is:

• IF oil price rises above the marginal cost of new non-OPEC supply in time to get new production back on track;
• IF oil-producing countries and China stop subsidizing prices to their own populations;
• IF OPEC gives international oil companies (IOCs) like Exxon, Shell, Chevron, etc. access to explore and develop their reserves;
• IF the trillions in exploration and infrastructure capital are invested;
• IF OPEC invests seriously in increasing their own capacity;
• IF enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes can really increase the recovery rate as much as hoped;
• IF the reported reserves are really there;
• IF the U.S. Geological Survey predictions of “yet-to-find” oil in the Arctic, offshore and elsewhere are correct;
• IF the Saudis can are capable of reaching and sustaining 15 million barrels per day of output;

IF, IF, IF …

“And,” adds my correspondent, “virtually all of these are outside the control of any policies that might be set by the oil-importing nations of the West.”

So unless a lot of things happen – pretty soon and in the right sequence, and competently — we’re going to be faced with the prospect that there’s not going to be enough oil to go around.  So oil prices are going to head back up.  People and governments are going to get desperate over supplies.  And much of the usual and predictable bad stuff that you’ve heard before is going to happen.  Which gets back to that Financial Times headline.  “Plummeting” demand?  Really.

A Few More Dots to Connect

President-Elect Barack Obama made a major announcement last weekend.  It was along the lines that his administration would work to invest in infrastructure.  Congress loved it because it means that the politicians can appropriate money to spend on concrete and steel.  That’s what I’ve been saying would happen.  But it’s nice to hear it.

The announcement was good in the short term for a couple of the OI stocks, like Alcoa (AA:NYSE), Cemex (CX:NYSE) and General Electric (GE:NYSE).   They all have things to sell into an infrastructure buildout, as do more recent additions like Koppers Holdings (KOP:NYSE) and Allegheny Technologies (ATI:NYSE).

Where will the U.S. government get the money to pay for the infrastructure buildout?  Same place it gets all the money to bail out the banks and Wall Street, I guess.  It’ll borrow it.  And in the process the U.S. borrowing will soak up most of the nation’s “spare” capital, such as it is.  U.S. government borrowing will crowd private borrowing.

The U.S. government can borrow money for the time being.  For some strange reason, people still want to buy U.S. Treasury bills, bonds and notes.  Don’t ask me why.  The interest rates are just about zero (safety sells, I suppose).  And the dollar is strong.

Actually, the dollar is much stronger than it ought to be.  I expect a major dollar-correction in the first quarter of 2009, which will be good for foreign-denominated stocks that trade on the Toronto Exchange.  (Although Canada is having some surprising political issues right now.  I’d appreciate hearing from Canadian readers about their take on what’s going on with Prime Minister Harper.)

In the longer run, the U.S. expenditures will come back as inflation.  That means that you want to look at owning gold and shares in the best-run gold miners.  If I had to pick just one gold miner with the best prospects, it would be Kinross Gold (KGC:NYSE).   It’s well managed.  Kinross just completed a series of mine expansions.  And it’s ramping up production to sell increasing levels of output into a generally rising gold market.

Source: Whither the Oil Markets

Oil fell towards $45 a barrel on Friday, after the collapse of a $14 billion rescue for U.S. automakers caused heavy losses across global financial markets and Goldman Sachs predicted oil could fall to $30 a barrel.

U.S. crude oil for January delivery was down $2.95 at $45.03 a barrel by 1119 GMT.

Prices rallied more than $4 on Thursday to a session high of $49.12 a barrel before dropping back in late trading.

Oil sank to $40.50 last Friday, its lowest in 4 years.

London Brent crude was down $2.98 at $44.41.

The plight of the big U.S. auto firms, including General Motors Corp and Chrysler, illustrates the severity of the global economic downturn that has hit demand for oil.

“The collapse in world oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2008 as the global credit crunch intensified, now threatens to push oil prices below $40 a barrel in the near term,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

“The impact of the global economic recession has swung the oil market from pricing demand destruction in 2008 to pricing supply destruction in 2009.”

The U.S. investment bank, which earlier this year had predicted $200 per barrel oil, virtually halved its 2009 price forecast for U.S. crude to $45 and said the price could fall to $30 in the short term.

Goldman analyst Arjun Murti, who predicted a super-spike in oil to $100 in 2005, said prices would hit a trough in the first quarter.

The bank said a cut of an extra 2 million barrels per day was needed from OPEC, which meets next on Dec. 17 in Algeria.

French bank BNP Paribas cut its 2009 price forecast to $53 a barrel from $75 previously.

Crude has shed two-thirds of its value over the last five months, down about $100 from a record of $147.27 in July.

It rebounded more 10 percent on Thursday in anticipation of a big supply cut from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC’s President Chakib Khelil has called for more “severe” supply cuts at next week’s meeting.

Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev has also weighed in, saying the country was ready to work with OPEC on possible oil output cuts.

Japan’s Nippon Oil said it expected OPEC to agree to cut 1.5-2.0 million bpd next week.

“Chances for a 2.5 mln bpd cut are possible, but that would put increased criticism on OPEC amidst the economic slowdown, so I think the likely cuts are up to 2 mln bpd,” Kazuyoshi Takayama, Nippon Oil’s general manager, told reporters on Friday.

Jane Merriman, Jennifer Tan, Osamu Tsukimori
LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters)

Oil rose above $45 on Thursday after the International Energy Agency predicted global growth in oil demand would resume in 2009 and Saudi oil minister said OPEC’s top exporter pumped less oil than expected last month.

World oil demand growth would return in 2009 after shrinking this year for the first time since 1983, the IEA, which advises 28 industrialized nations on energy policy, said in a monthly report. It also cut forecasts for supply outside OPEC next year.

“We knew the bad bits, demand down, but the supply downgrade was supportive,” said Rob Laughlin of MF Global.

U.S. crude was up $2.23 at $45.75 a barrel by 1152 GMT, after surging $1.45 to settle at $43.52 on Wednesday. Brent crude was up $2.55 at $44.95.

The IEA’s view that demand would grow in 2009 contrasts with that of the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration, which forecast this week that world consumption would decline by 450,000 bpd next year.

The Paris-based IEA also lowered forecasts for supply from outside OPEC in 2009, leading to a 200,000 bpd increase in the amount it said OPEC needs to pump to balance the market.

SAUDI NUMBERS

Oil also rose as Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the world’s largest exporter pumped 8.49 million bpd of oil in November, less than estimated by analysts and in line with its OPEC target.

“We will give you the November number because that’s what everybody is looking for,” Naimi said during a visit to Poznan, Poland. “It’s 8,493,300 barrels per day.”

That would put the kingdom’s output in line with its implied OPEC target of 8.47 million bpd and is 560,000 bpd less than the IEA’s estimate of Saudi November production, published earlier on Thursday, of 9.05 million bpd.

Industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday they expected January shipments to be below Saudi’s existing OPEC target, implying it expects OPEC to agree a further supply cut when the producer group meets in Algeria on Dec. 17.

Russia, which will attend the Algeria meeting as an observer amid calls from some members for Moscow to join in output curbs, said on Wednesday it will present its own proposal at the talks.

Indicators on the health of the U.S. economy, such as weekly jobless claims due later in the day, could make grim reading for Wall Street and imply a further weakening in demand from the world’s top oil consumer.

Oil has fallen by more than $100 a barrel from a record high of $147.27 reached in the summer, pressured by weakening global demand.

Alex Lawler, Jennifer Tan

LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters)

Oil fell below $43 on Tuesday after the U.S. government predicted world oil consumption would shrink this year and next, marking the longest demand contraction in three decades.

U.S. crude was down 84 cents at $42.87 a barrel at 1636 GMT, off a session low of $42.44.

London Brent crude fell $1.09 to $42.33.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report it expected global oil demand to fall by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2008 and 450,000 bpd in 2009.

This would mark the first time since the 1970s that world consumption would decline in two consecutive years.

“The EIA forecast is overly optimistic. I expect a significant contraction in demand, given the current state of the global economy,” said Tom Knight a trader at Truman Arnold.

The outlook for global oil consumption is very much on the minds of ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets on Dec. 17 in Algeria.

OPEC is expected to reduce overall production by a minimum of one million barrels per day (bpd).

“Oil is on a count-down to OPEC now and everyone is expecting them to come up with something big — probably a cut of 1-1.5 million bpd,” said Rob Laughlin, senior oil analyst at brokers MF Global in London.

“If OPEC doesn’t make a big cut, this market is in trouble.”

Joe Brock
LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters)

Oil prices steadied on Friday, after falling more than 7 percent the day before, as stock markets recovered from early lows caused by continuing economic gloom.

U.S. crude fell 13 cents to $49.29 a barrel at 12:08 p.m. EST (1708 GMT), after earlier hitting $48.25, its lowest level in three and a half years. London Brent crude gained 53 cents to $48.61 a barrel.

U.S. stocks recovered slightly after falling into negative territory on Friday as shares of financials, including Citigroup , declined and investors worried about the deepening economic slump.

Slumping demand in the United States and other top oil consuming nations has sent crude prices plunging from record highs above $147 a barrel in mid-July.

On Thursday, oil fell more than 7 percent on gloomy economic data, to settle at its lowest since May 2005.

“Obviously, we are reluctant to call a bottom to this dramatic price decline that is now approaching 4-1/2 months. The attachment between the oil and stock markets will likely remain valid, at least through month’s end,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

JP Morgan said on Friday it expected world oil demand in 2009 to decline by 500,000 barrels per day as the global credit crunch continues to rack the world economy.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Cairo next week, but may not take any decision to reduce output to defend prices.

“In Cairo we will not have the complete data about the market,” OPEC President Chakib Khelil said. “It’s very possible that we will not take a decision until we will see the impact. This impact will not likely be seen until December.”

OPEC will meet on Dec. 17 in Oran, Algeria.

Industry consultant Petrologistics estimated OPEC oil production will fall by 1.22 million barrels per day in November.

OPEC agreed in October to cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day from Nov. 1, but the move has failed to stem the decline in oil prices.

No one can say for certain, of course.

But whether prices continue to rise or not, there are plenty of opportunities out there for investors looking to capitalize on the world’s long-term needs for oil. Some believe the meteoric rise in oil we’ve seen over the last three years is a temporary phenomenon. T. Boone Pickens isn’t one of them.

The long-time oilman, and current chairman of BP Capital Management, was recently asked in a 60 Minutes interview when he thought we’d see $1.50 a gallon at the pump again. “We won’t ever see $1.50 a gallon again,” said Pickens. “No, that’s gone.”

It’s tough to disagree. On the demand side, citizens of the wealthy West aren’t using any less oil, nor are the up-and-coming Tigers of the East.

On the supply side, just look at many of the world’s biggest exporters: Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Russia. It’s a virtual rogues’ gallery, filled with nations that represent tyranny, corruption or instability.

Fortunately, the world’s single-largest oil deposit sits right here in North America. Time magazine calls it “Canada’s biggest buried treasure.” It’s an area with up to 2.5 trillion barrels of oil, locked in Alberta sand. That’s eight times the total reserves of Saudi Arabia, enough to satisfy the world’s demand for petroleum for the next century.

This is easily the world’s most exciting energy story.

And one publicly traded company is supremely positioned to earn billions from this region in the months ahead.

The Competition For Oil Is Heating Up

In May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised upwards its estimate of world oil demand, squashing hopes that a significant decline in oil prices is imminent.

Demand growth this year is running at its fastest level in 24 years. Last year, world oil use was estimated at 82.6 million barrels a day. The United States burns a quarter of that. But competition for oil is heating up.

Emerging markets – and particularly giants like China and India – are rapidly industrializing. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, world demand for oil is expected to increase 54% over the next 25 years.

Unfortunately, American oil production has been on the downswing since 1970. And many of the world’s major oil suppliers are either indifferent or downright hostile to U.S. interests. Where can Americans look for a steady, reliable source of black gold?

How about 900 miles north of Montana, in Alberta, Canada?

Jed Clampett Never Imagined…

Alberta’s oil sands are the largest known reserve of oil on earth, containing between 1.7 and 2.5 trillion barrels. (Saudi Arabia, by comparison, has only 262 billion barrels of proven reserves. In fact, all OPEC nations combined have less than 900 billion barrels.)

For decades, these sands weren’t even considered part of the world’s oil reserves because the oil there wasn’t economically extractible at prevailing prices using then-current technology.

But times have changed… And the new gold rush is on.

In Alberta’s oil sands, energy companies don’t drill for oil. They dig it up. After excavation, giant trucks three stories high – carrying up to 400 tons of oil sands – carry it off to a processing plant.

There, the sands are heated in a cell where the oil comes to the top of the water and the sand drops to the bottom. This oil froth is then sent to an upgrader and eventually to a refiner. Is this oil really as good as the stuff coming from Saudi Arabia?

Actually, it’s better. According to Clive Matter, Chief of Shell Canada, this oil is “absolutely as good as it gets. In fact, it even trades at a premium because it’s high-quality crude oil.”

And here’s the kicker: Exploration of Alberta’s oil sands is virtually risk-free. You can’t drill a dry hole here. There’s no drilling at all. It’s a mining operation – and the reserves are thoroughly outlined. So what you really need is a company with plenty of machinery, money and manpower to dig it up and process it as quickly as possible.

That’s why you should own Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU).

The Blue Chip Oil Sands Play

There are dozens of small companies flocking to Alberta for a piece of the action. But in this capital-intensive business, why gamble on the small fry? We suggest you opt for the undisputed blue chip play: Suncor.

Based in Calgary, Suncor is an integrated energy company. It extracts and upgrades oil through its oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, Alberta. Its operations throughout Western Canada produce natural gas.

It operates a refining and marketing business in Ontario, with retail distribution under the Sunoco brand. And it has operations in the United States and retails its products under the Phillips 66 brand. It also manufactures the gasoline additive ethanol.

The price of New York crude oil hit $113.93 a barrel. The May contract for light, sweet crude climbed to $113.78 a barrel, up $1.65 from Monday’s close, and London’s Brent crude for May delivery established its own new record of $111.85.

“Traders on the Nymex saw the dollar take another tumble, so they did what they have been conditioned to do when the dollar falls, i.e. they bought crude oil,” Stephen Schork wrote in his popular industry newsletter, the Schork Report.

The dollar hit its latest all-time high against the euro last Thursday, hitting $1.5832. Monday, Wachovia Corp. (WB), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, announced a surprise first-quarter loss. The company also slashed its dividend and revealed plans to raise $7 billion in capital. As a result investors have lost even more confidence in the financial sector, and by extension, the U.S. dollar.

“This news highlights the strains in the banking sector and credit markets and that has led to more dollar selling, and so that tends to drive investors into oil and other commodities,” Viktor Shum, an analyst with Purvin & Gertz, told the Associated Press.

Oil’s price jump was also bolstered by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ decision to hold production steady and maintain its 2008 estimate for growth in world oil demand.

“The fundamental picture in the second quarter of 2008 appears to be in line with the typical seasonal pattern for this time of year,” the group said in its April report. “Current OPEC production at more than 32 million barrels per day will be sufficient to both meet demand growth and contribute to further stockbuilds.”

Despite strong demand from China and India and record high oil and gas prices, the members of OPEC, who control 40% of the world’s oil supply, believe demand is still very much at risk.

“With growing concerns about the slowing U.S. economy and higher gasoline prices, there is a chance that the decline could be more pronounced, leading to even lower demand in the second quarter,” the report noted.

U.S. inventories unexpectedly dropped in the week ended April 4, and Wednesday’s report for last week is expected to show further declines.