Martin Denholm of the Smart Profits Report shows us where to find the profits in the wreckage.

This from Martin:

Hey… wake up, Larry. The coffee is ready.

If you were as amazed as I was at the sight of President Obama’s chief economic advisor, Larry Summers, snoozing through Obama’s Fiscal Responsibility Summit on Monday (on the podium, no less), hopefully these numbers will shake him out of his slumber…

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller index shows that home prices in 20 U.S. cities plummeted by 18.5% in December, compared with December 2007. On the back of an 18.2% slide in November, it was the fastest decline on record and extends a decline that began in 2005. The 10-city index fared even worse, sinking by an annual 19.2%.

From its high in 2006, the 20-city index has tanked by 27%, with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco leading the way down during December. On a national scale, the Case-Shiller index showed an 18.2% drop compared with Q4 2007.

Let’s take a look at the real estate market and see how investors could play this news…

Homebuyers Should Have Adopted The PAYGO Plan

The housing numbers came just a day after Obama proposed a PAYGO approach to government spending at the Fiscal Responsibility Summit. Simply put, it’s based on the “You don’t spend what you don’t have” concept, making cuts to fund spending plans.

Forcing the government to balance its books and pay more attention to the national debt sounds great in theory. It’s an approach that helped turn America’s federal deficit into a surplus over the 1990s and the early part of the 2000s.

But of course, the country wasn’t mired in two prolonged military conflicts, nor did it face the worst economic climate in a generation – issues that don’t discriminate when it comes to book-balancing efforts or debt levels.

And at the current rate the government is going, it’s going to have to find a lot of extra pennies buried in the couch – or make some significant cuts – because Obama is clearly determined to spend his way back into prosperity.

There’s No Place Like Home For $275 Billion

With housing however, this fiscally responsible PAYGO approach would have worked wonders for many homebuyers who now find themselves clutching for the last bit of rope. Record foreclosures (up 83% to 2.3 million in 2008, according to RealtyTrac) and slumping property prices (down a record 8.2% in 2008, according to the Federal Housing Finance Board) have eaten into Americans’ wealth and eroded consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the economy.

To combat it, Obama wants to pump $275 billion into the real estate market in order to flatten out its freefall. And as I wrote last week, $75 billion of that housing aid package will go towards allowing homeowners to refinance and lower their monthly mortgage payments in a bid to slow the foreclosure rate.

Whether these efforts will work… time will tell. But check out this interesting nugget from Minyanville:

“While pundits and politicians debate the various aspects of President Obama’s $275 billion housing bailout, one piece of data proves just how misguided federal efforts to revitalize the housing market are: $275 billion could buy more than half of all American homes already in foreclosure.

“Such an undertaking would remove distressed homes from the market and spur community revitalization efforts throughout areas desperately in need of the hope they were promised in November.”

The housing recovery isn’t going to happen anytime soon. With the foreclosure rate still rising (up 18% in January), it’s still squashing prices. And with home demand very weak, there’s a big supply of excess homes on the market.

And that’s crippling this industry…

Trouble For Toll

“The past five months have been among the most difficult in U.S. economic history.”

And the award for “Most Obvious Statement” goes to…

Robert Toll, CEO of fallen homebuilder giant Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL).

Toll was speaking on the back of a 51% plunge in his company’s first quarter revenues – a trend symptomatic among the nation’s homebuilders.

Prospective buyers aren’t buying, amid job security fears. And sellers can’t sell their homes, due to the depressed economy and market. And with the glut of unsold homes on the market and prices falling, homebuilders have no reason (and no money) to build any more. Toll says new home construction is at its lowest level in 50 years.

And profits are tanking. Analysts project a $0.30 per share first quarter loss for the company – but Toll is so concerned about the economy and uncertain about the market that it hasn’t even bothered to issue any guidance itself.

Others aren’t hanging around to participate in the carnage any more…

Insiders Are Bailing On This Builder

Recent SEC filings show that Dwight Schar, founder of NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR) recently cashed in his housing chips, dumping 339,059 shares worth $139 million.

Smart move. He sold at an average price of $409.90 each. The stock’s current price is around $348.

He’s not the only one either. Four other company directors and the CEO have also been busily selling their holdings this month.

One razor sharp analyst called this spate of so-called “cluster selling” (which occurs during particularly weak periods) “a pretty bad signal” for investors (okay, so I’m giving that “Most Obvious Statement” award to him now).

Profit From The Housing Pain

With the National Association of Realtors announcing this morning that existing U.S. home sales defied projections for a rise and dropped by an annual 5.3% in January from December – the lowest since July 1997 – homebuilder stocks are getting knocked around again.

The median home price: Down 14.8% to $170,300 in January – the lowest price since March 2003. And 9.6 months worth of unsold housing inventory.

Whether this marks anything approaching a bottom or not remains to be seen. But in any event, homebuilders that have struggled to turn a profit over the past few years are now closer to going bust instead.

To combat the slide, homebuilders have dumped as much land as they can and trying to load up on cash instead. But in this market, that’s obviously coming at a loss. And when the assets run out… what then in a still-depressed market? Not to mention the debt that many companies have accumulated, due to excess leveraging during the boom times.

On a broad scale, you could take a look at playing the downside of sector ETFs like the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) – already down 55% over the past year.

But if you want to look for downside in individual stocks, focus on ones whose debt-to-equity level is high and/or who are running low on cash. And when insiders are selling, that’s usually a good indication that you should do the same.

Source: How To Send Your Profits Up As America’s Homebuilders Go Down

The housing market has been tumbling for some time now, but the squeeze in credit is now making matters a whole lot worse. There are two clear indicators of this: 1) They’re cutting dividends; 2) They’re selling off homes at “fire sale” prices.

The government isn’t stepping in to save these guys. Andrew says now is a good time to short the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (AMEX:XHB)

More from Andrew:

The housing market has been going down for a couple of years. But the monthly numbers keep getting worse.

August housing starts dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 895,000. That’s the lowest it’s been since back in early 1991, and 6.6 percent of all loans are at least a month past due. And sales of pre-owned homes fell by 2.2 percent in August. OUCH.

Most homebuilders haven’t been profitable since 2006. But it wasn’t until recently that they flashed two clear signs of desperation.

• They’re cutting dividends. Lennar (NYSE:LEN), the biggest homebuilder in the U.S., cut dividends by 75 percent last week. More dividend cuts will come from the sector.
• They’re selling their property at fire-sale prices. That makes them even more desperate than banks. Banks refused to sell their toxic debt at huge discount prices. That’s a big reason why the government had to step in and offer to buy this stuff at higher prices than what they could get from the private sector. Horton, for example, recently sold a San Diego property for 25 cents on the dollar.

Yes they’re getting tax-refund checks from Uncle Sam for the losses they take on these sales. Still, healthy, or even semi-healthy companies don’t sell their property for pennies on the dollar unless they’re in dire straits.Even homebuilders themselves see tough times ahead. Here’s what Lennar said:

“While we expected the housing market to remain constrained throughout the third quarter, the weakness in the market actually accelerated as a result of increased foreclosures, weakened consumer confidence and tightened mortgage lending standards.”

I believe that housing will remain “constrained” much longer than through the third quarter.  I think the third quarter of next year is more like it, especially with foreclosures increasing and driving down prices.

In a middle-class neighborhood in South Florida, not far from IDE’s Delray Beach office, you can buy pre-owned homes in foreclosure for less than $85,000. Why would anyone buy more expensive new homes when they could just buy a foreclosed one at a steep discount?

And the credit freeze that occurred right after Lehman fell is killing home builders. One of these days credit is going to thaw, and I hope it’s sooner rather than later. But banks won’t go back to their free-wheeling lending days, and in the meantime it’s extremely difficult to get home loans.

Morningstar says, “It’s likely that these home builders are going to enter an even more difficult period in terms of cash generation.”

O’Donnell /Atkins, a real-estate advisory firm in California, says, “There’s going to be a rash of builders shedding assets.”

Prudential Realty in California, says, “The downside is they are never going to see the kind of margins when lots were doubling and tripling in value in the time it took to build a house.”

Banks are hogging the headlines but home builders are in big trouble. The 20 percent they’ve dropped so far this year is nothing (the blue line above is the Spyders home builders ETF – XHB). It’s only half of the banks’ drop.

Like every other sector, home builders are having a terrible October. Unlike other sectors, there’s nothing to save these companies from doubling and perhaps tripling those losses.

Most likely, a falling market has taken a big chunk of change from you. Here’s a way to get it back. All you have to do is short these companies or the home builders ETF.

Source: Next Shoe to Drop