Investors are worried. The big question – as always – is whether the primary uptrend remains intact.

And the answer is yes.

To understand just what that target should be, let’s take a look at where we are right now.

Just before Wednesday’s sell-off, measures of the supply of stocks moved to new lows, while demand moved to new highs. This means bull-market-trading rules remain in effect. But as the cyclical bull market matures a little, we need to change the target of our buying efforts.

Although it looked like losses would be cut in the early afternoon, a lack of demand resulted in the major U.S. indices settling gently at support near the high end of the August trading range. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.5%.

All the major sector groups save healthcare finished in the red. The declines were the most severe among industrial conglomerates. The Industrials Select SPDR (NYSE: XLI) lost 1.4% thanks to a 2.5% fall in Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT). Bank stocks were also weak as Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) dropped 2.2%. Defensive healthcare and utilities stocks were relatively buoyant with a gain of 0.1% for the Healthcare SPDR (NYSE: XLV) and just a 0.3% loss for the Utilities SPDR (NYSE: XLU).

Homebuilders were under some heavy selling pressure over the past week, likely the consequence of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to slow its purchases of mortgages. By spending $1.45 trillion, the Fed kept the difference between mortgage rates and the yield on U.S. Treasury debt very low.

Now, as these purchases taper off, mortgage rates will creep higher and erode some of the awesome affordability levels that are driving buyers to take advantage of the government’s first-time homebuyer tax credit and stabilize the housing market. As a result, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE: ITB) lost 2.7% on Friday and dropped 8.3% last week.

The declines of the past week have been in alignment with our expectation of a short-term correction before equities push on to what should be a more meaningful top near the 1,200 level on the S&P 500. A number of technical indicators, including the percentage of stocks over their 10-day moving average as well as breadth and volume measures, had begun to deteriorate after having moved well into overbought territory the prior two weeks.

We aim to run our portfolios for long-term holds during bull markets, so although we warned of weakness ahead we did not expect it to be serious enough to merit exiting positions. Still don’t.

The big question – always – is whether the primary uptrend remains intact. And the answer is yes. Just before Wednesday’s sell-off, measures of the supply of stocks moved to new lows, while demand moved to new highs. This means bull-market-trading rules remain in effect. But as the cyclical bull market matures a little, we need to change the target of our buying efforts.

However dramatic the action of the past few days has been, it is a sign that some normalcy is returning to the equity markets. Moving forward, it is unlikely we will see long strings of uninterrupted up days, super-strong performance in the lowest quality stocks, and high correlations between stocks. In the final push to the stimulus- and recovery-Fed reaction high that we will likely see over the next three months or so, the emphasis may shift to fundamental analysis and quality.

As you can see in the chart above, stock-performance correlations tend to spike during times of economic stress. When investors enter panic mode and analyst estimates become much less accurate, the focus shifts from individual assets to asset classes and broad sectors of the economy. In other words, when all hell breaks loose investors don’t differentiate between great companies and good companies – they throw them all out.

Once this unease subsides and economic volatility wanes, fundamental analysis once again becomes the most important driver of investment performance.  And that’s okay, because there will be plenty of opportunities as investors shift their focus from stocks that were priced for Armageddon to stocks that are poised to benefit from renewed economic expansion.

The foundations for the transition are already being laid: UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) analyst Jeffrey Palma notes that after nearly a year of downward revisions to earnings, analysts are starting to upgrade their forecasts for 2010. Estimate rebounds are largest in the cyclical materials and retail sectors. Breaking it down by region, the most promising opportunities are in commodity-related stocks in the United States, consumer stocks in Europe, and British banks.

We have recommended SPDR Metals & Mining (NYSE: XME) in our Strategic Advantage service as a great vehicle to play this trend, even though it stumbled last week. Another good one is iShares Australia (NYSE: EWA). Check out our newsletter for a much-expanded list of recommendations.

The Week in Review

Monday: The index of leading indicators jumped 0.6% in August after a 0.9% jump in July and a 0.8% jump in June. The indicators’ August performance represented the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Moreover, the 4.7% increase during these five months was the strongest showing since early 1983, which marked the beginning of one of history’s greatest bull markets.

Tuesday: Home prices backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac jumped 0.3% in July. There were also indications that retail sales plummeted in the week following the Labor Day Back-to-School blitz.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve announced it would leave interest rates unchanged. Stocks initially bounded higher before abruptly shifting direction and screaming lower. The bulls gunned the Dow Industrial Average close to the 10,000 level before things fell apart. At issue wasn’t the Fed’s target policy rate, which affects short-term interest rates. Instead, traders were apparently concerned that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his cohorts failed to expand its direct purchases of mortgages and government debt. This will likely result in higher long-term rates.

Credit markets, though, didn’t care, and carried on with their bull market run. Crude oil fell 4.8% to $68.33, its largest percentage loss since July on a surprise increase in inventories.

Thursday: Some momentum was lost in the housing market after weak existing homes sales numbers put an end for four straight months of gains. Sales last month came in at a million seasonality adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million — a 2.7% drop from July. We continue to see an emphasis on foreclosures with distressed sales making up 31% of total sales. The highlight: Supply of homes fell to just 8.5 months of sales, a level that is believed to reflect a balanced market. There are, however, the issues surrounding a “shadow” inventory of homes waiting for foreclosure proceedings to complete or the slightest whiff of a recovery before being listed.

Friday: The G20 wrapped up its meeting in Pittsburgh with a commitment to tighter regulation of the financial system and system to subject each country’s economic policy to a type of peer review to try to avoid the types of global imbalances — China’s export obsession and America’s credit binge — don’t happen in the future. While the latter can only be enforced by a public shaming by other countries and the International Monetary Fund, it lacks an actual penalty. But it’s a good first step.

Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, improved to its highest level since early 2008 after rising by nearly one-third since late last year. According to Haver Analytics, over the last 10 years there has been a 69% correlation between sentiment and growth in consumer spending.
Unfortunately, the good news didn’t extend to durable goods orders in August: There was an unexpected decline that reversed half of July’s 4.8% gain. A drop in orders for transportation equipment was fingered as the main culprit. However, this metric is quite volatility and the overall trend still points towards a rebound in the manufacturing sector.

The Week Ahead

Monday: A quiet calendar with no economic releases.

Tuesday: The latest on nationwide home prices courtesy of the excellent Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Also, we get another update on consumer confidence.

Wednesday: The government makes its final revisions to second-quarter GDP. The last revision made no change to the initial estimate of a 1% decline. In the first quarter, GDP plummeted 6.4%. Traders will be looking for indications that inventories have dropped and demand is increasing ahead of a projected inventory rebuild in the months ahead. We will also get an update on the health of the manufacturing base in the latest ISM – Chicago Business Barometer.

Wednesday will also mark the end of the third quarter.

Thursday: A busy day with an update on auto sales, personal income and spending, the latest ISM Manufacturing Index, and construction spending.

Friday: The September jobs report is expected to show a loss of 170,000 jobs compared to the 216,000 that were lost in August and a 463,000 decline in June. The unemployment rate, currently at 9.7%, will move closer to 10%. Also, we get an update on factory orders.
In summary, the start of the fourth quarter is on the horizon. We expect it to be a plus for investors, though not without growth and geopolitical scares that create S-turns and potholes. Stay positive amid the turbulence as long as corporate credit markets remain strong and the primary trend is up.

Source: Long-Term Stock-Market Uptrend to Continue

I’m not sure about death, but the broader U.S. economy is like a 2:00 A.M. drunk, continuing to stumble towards the end of a mind-altering 2008, with little long-term relief in sight. Will it ever find its way home again?

One of President-elect Barack Obama’s most ambitious and large-scale plans quite literally seeks to dig America out of this mess – and here’s how you can profit, too. But you’d better act fast. Some of Wall Street’s big boys are already placing their bets.

The Eisenhower Model

Obama will take the oath as 44th president of the United States on Jan. 20.

Since his Nov. 4 victory, the more he’s said about “getting to work immediately” and having “no time to waste,” the more I think the inauguration ceremony will be a time-consuming inconvenience, distracting him from fixing America’s problems.

One key area in which he’s pledged to spend his way out of the mire is by tackling the country’s aging and rapidly deteriorating infrastructure. He plans to make the largest investment to repair and upgrade the country’s public works systems since Dwight Eisenhower spearheaded the nationwide interstate highway system in the 1950s.

In short, this means utility industries like electric and water will receive huge cash infusions. Roads and bridges will be repaired and rebuilt. Schools will be modernized, part of which will include improving Internet access to a nation that ranks 15th in the world in broadband adoption. Energy efficiency, particularly in government buildings, will be increased. The healthcare industry will make greater use of technology to streamline and computerize medical records to cut costs.

That’s the plan anyway. And Obama says it will create 2.5 million jobs by 2011.

Obama’s economic brain trust is currently “busy working, crunching the numbers… to determine what the size and scope of the economic recovery plan needs to be. But it’s going to be substantial.”

Kind of vague right now, I know. But just yesterday (Thursday), one of his advisers floated a dollar figure of $850 billion. In terms of infrastructure upgrades, 5,000 road and bridge projects could get under Caterpillar Digs Deep into the Developing World for Profit way immediately after Obama puts his autograph on the bill.

Brick By Brick… Bridge By Bridge

With U.S. infrastructure set to have a sweaty wad of cash lobbed in its direction, construction firms are lining up to grab a share of the spoils, particularly as the need for equipment and raw materials rises.

Appropriately, we start in Obama’s home state of Illinois, which is also home to the world’s largest manufacturers of construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial turbines. Founded in 1986 and based in Peoria, Caterpillar (CAT) has seen its shares shoot up from $37 to over $45, as the company feeds off the infrastructure buzz.

One of Caterpillar’s fellow Illinois-based construction equipment manufacturers, Deere & Company (DE), could also be set to extend a share price boost that has seen the price surge from the upper $20s on November 20 to over $39 today.

If you want a more diversified way to play the industrial and construction sector, take a look at the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) exchange traded fund (ETF).

On the engineering front, head west and look no further than California’s Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC), which is the largest publicly traded engineering firm in the U.S. The infrastructure love is spreading across the sector, as the stock shot up on news that it has secured two more contracts…

1. A five-year, $17.5 million contract from the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board that will see Jacobs serve SamTrans and the San Mateo County Transportation Authority agencies to work on three programs. This includes project management, scheduling, budget management, and more.

1. A contract from Pima County, Arizona to provide project management and construction inspection services for the Ina Road water reclamation project. Construction costs here will total about $200 million.

Jacobs pulls in a whopping $11 billion annually and employs more than 57,000 workers – a number that could grow under Obama’s bold plan.

Speaking of water, if you’re looking to cash in on this critical industry amid a surging global population, increasing pollution, and a depleting, finite amount of water resources, check out leading firm Watts Water Technologies Inc. (WTS) or the sector ETF, PowerShares Water Resources (PHO), which tracks the price and yield performance of the Palisades Water index.

Be sure to also pay a visit to our own free Smart Profits Report research section, where you can read much more about the water problems facing the world – and the vast profit potential that the industry holds. We’ve got two in-depth (pun intended) water reports up there.

Get Raw

On the raw materials side, several firms spring to mind as potential winners of the Obama infrastructure initiative. And as Jim Cramer might say, they’re “best of breed” in their industries.

• Cement: South of the border – in Garza Garcia, Mexico, to be exact – you can find Cemex SAB de CV (ADR: CX), a world leader in producing, distributing, and selling cement. And when it comes to infrastructure rebuilding and repairs, you don’t get many more commodities more important than this one. Its market cap of almost $8 billion is evidence of this.

• Steel: Talk about a liftoff. U.S. Steel Corp. (X) shares have surged from the mid $20s on November 20 to a current price around $37 a share.

• Copper: Copper hit a 52-week high of $127.24/ton on May 21, 2008. The price now sits around $20/ton. Quite a slump for what is the largest publicly traded copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX). You can blame the prolonged commodities sector slump for that, in addition to the stock market’s woes. But in an Obama-fueled, infrastructure rebuilding rampage, I’m betting on a resurgence.

• Aluminum: Go large. The leader here is Alcoa Inc. (AA). Like FCX, Alcoa has endured a rocky year. Having traded at a 52-week high of $44.77 in May, the stock market’s tank job has whipped this stock into submission. Shares are currently trading around $10 and with a 0.37 Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) ratio, the market thinks it’s ridiculously undervalued.

The bottom line here is that companies like these could all stand to profit from a huge ramp up in infrastructure spending. What’s more, they’re all solid, well-established, industry-leading firms with strong cash positions, doing business in areas where there are clear, critical needs. If you’re looking for outperformers, infrastructure stocks are set up well for 2009.

From Eisenhower To Obama …The Firms Poised To Cash In On The New U.S. Infrastructure Revolution

This from Smart Profits Report:

Six weeks from today, Barack Obama will take the oath as 44^th president of the United States.

Since his election victory, the more he’s said about “getting to work immediately” and having “no time to waste,” the more I think the inauguration ceremony will be a time-consuming inconvenience, distracting him from fixing America’s problems!

One key area in which he’s pledged to spend his way out of the mire is by tackling the country’s aging and rapidly deteriorating infrastructure. He plans to make the largest investment to repair and upgrade the country’s public works systems since Dwight Eisenhower spearheaded the nationwide interstate highway system in the 1950s.

In short, this means utility industries like electric and water will receive huge cash infusions. Roads and bridges will be repaired and rebuilt. Schools will be modernized, part of which will include improving Internet access to a nation that ranks 15^th in the world in broadband adoption. Energy efficiency, particularly in government buildings, will be increased. The healthcare industry will make greater use of technology to streamline and computerize medical records to cut costs.

That’s the plan anyway. And Obama says it will create 2.5 million jobs by 2011. But we want profits. Read on to find out how you can grab some…

It’s The Economy, Stupid… Six Weeks Away From $500 Billion Rescue Plan

Obama’s economic brain trust is currently “busy working, crunching the numbers… to determine what the size and scope of the economic recovery plan needs to be. But it’s going to be substantial.”

Kinda vague right now, I know. But early estimates put the economic recovery bill at $500 billion. In terms of infrastructure upgrades, 5,000 road and bridge projects could get underway immediately after Obama puts his autograph on the bill.

Here are some investments that could revel in the building boom…

Brick By Brick… Bridge By Bridge

When the U.S. infrastructure sets to have a sweaty wad of cash lobbed in its direction, construction firms are lining up to grab a share of the spoils, as the need for equipment and raw materials rises.

Appropriately, we start in Obama’s home state of Illinois, which is also home to the world’s largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial turbines. Founded in 1986 and based in Peoria, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) has shot up from $37 to over $43 over the past five trading days, as it feeds off the infrastructure buzz.

One of Caterpillar’s fellow Illinois-based construction equipment manufacturers, Deere & Company (NYSE:DE), could also be set to extend a share price boost that has seen the price surge from the upper $20s on November 20 to over $38 today.

If you want a more diversified way to play the industrial and construction sector, take a look at the ETF, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLI). ETF’s are a smarter investment choice in a rollercoaster market; our Guest Editorial on Good ETF Investments tells us why.

On the engineering front, head west and look no further than California’s Jacobs Engineering Group (NYSE:JEC), which is the largest publicly traded engineering firm in the U.S. The infrastructure love is spreading across the sector, as the stock shot up today on news that it has secured two more contracts…

1. A five-year, $17.5 million contract from the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board (JPB) that will see Jacobs serve SamTrans and the San Mateo County Transportation Authority (SMCTA) agencies to work on three programs. This includes project management, scheduling, budget management, and more.
2. A contract from Pima County, Arizona to provide project management and construction inspection services for the Ina Road water reclamation project. Construction costs here will total about $200 million.

Jacobs pulls in a whopping $11 billion annually and employs more than 57,000 workers – a number that could grow under Obama’s bold plan.

And speaking of water, if you’re looking to cash in on this critical industry amid a surging global population, increasing pollution, and a depleting, finite amount of water resources, check out leading firm Watts Water Technologies Inc. (NYSE:WTS) or the sector ETF, PowerShares Water Resources (NYSE:PHO), which tracks the price and yield performance of the Palisades Water index.

Be sure to also pay a visit to our own free Smart Profits Report research section, where you can read much more about the water problems facing the world – and the vast profit potential that the industry holds. We’ve got two in-depth (pun intended) water reports up there. An earlier issue titled, The Water Industry analyzes how the economics of this increasingly scarce commodity are shaping our world.

Get Raw

On the raw materials side, several firms spring to mind as potential winners of the Obama Infrastructure Initiative (I just made that term up). And as Jim Cramer might say, they’re “best of breed” in their industries.

Cement: South of the border – in Garza Garcia, Mexico, to be exact – you can find Cemex (NYSE:CX), a world leader in producing, distributing, and selling cement. And when it comes to infrastructure rebuilding and repairs, you don’t get many more commodities more important than this one. Its market cap of almost $8 billion is evidence of this.

Steel: Talk about a liftoff. U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE:X) shares have surged from the mid $20s on November 20 to a current price around $37, having enjoyed its biggest daily jump in almost 20 years on Monday.

Copper: Its 52-week high on May 21, 2008 was $127.24. Its price now sits around $20. Quite a slump for what is the largest publicly traded copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX). You can blame the prolonged commodities sector slump for that, in addition to the stock market’s woes. But in an Obama-fueled infrastructure rebuilding rampage, I’m betting on a resurgence here.

Aluminum: Go large. The leader here is Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA). Like FCX, Alcoa has endured a rocky year. Having traded at a 52-week high of $44.77 in May, the stock market’s tank job has whipped this stock into submission. Shares are currently trading around $9.50 and with a 0.37 PEG ratio (Price/Earnings-to-Growth), the market thinks it’s ridiculously undervalued.

The bottom line here is that companies like these could all stand to profit from a huge ramp up in infrastructure spending. What’s more, they’re all solid, well-established, industry-leading firms in strong cash positions, doing business in areas where there are clear, critical needs. If you’re looking for outperformers, infrastructure stocks are set up well for 2009.

Source: From Eisenhower To Obama… The Firms Poised To Cash In On The New U.S. Infrastructure Revolution