Fast-growing industry and a reliance on coal-fired power plants turned China into the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas a few years ago. Clouds of smog far thicker than that of Los Angeles hang over many of its cities and much of the water is densely polluted. But that’s something the central government aims to change.

China plans to reduce energy consumption per unit of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 20% of 2005 levels by the end of next year. It’s more immediate goal is to reduce reliance on coal-fired plants to 60% of its energy production from 70%, and replace with renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

Since 2007, about 54 gigawatts – about 7% of the nation’s electricity-generating capacity – of coal and oil-fired power plants have been closed down as part of the effort to reduce carbon emissions.

Alternative energy sources, including wind, solar, and hydropower, are in line to replace fossil fuels. China’s market for green technology could reach $1 trillion annually, or about 15% of the country’s forecast 2013 GDP, according to a report released last week by the China Greentech Initiative and the American Chamber of Commerce.

“Climate change brings a range of new risks and challenges for business, but it is also creating huge opportunities, particularly in the greentech sectors,” Richard Gledhill, global leader on climate change and carbon market services for consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers, told the People’s Daily. “The International Energy Agency predicts that we will have to spend an additional $9 trillion over the next 20 years to deliver a stabilization scenario of two degrees Celsius.”

Already solar companies in China are benefiting from the government’s push for clean technology.  China plans to install more than 500 megawatts of solar pilot projects in two to three years.

“Given the nascent nature of China’s solar domestic market, this 500 mW program, though not huge, sends a strong signal that China is serious about developing its domestic solar market, and will undoubtedly stimulate more activity in domestic deployment by enterprises outside of the subsidy program,” Julian Wong, a senior policy analyst with the Center for American Progress, told the People’s Daily.

The central government could raise its 2020 solar power generation target more than fivefold to at least 10 gigawatts, the paper reported. Analysts expect that more than two gigawatts of new solar capacity will be installed by 2011, up from about 100 megawatts in 2008.

To help the country meet its goal, the central government in July said it would subsidize 50% of investment for solar projects as well as transmission and distribution systems that connect to grid networks. The subsidy rises to 70% for independent photovoltaic power generating systems in remote regions of the country that have no power supply.

However, Chinese solar companies aren’t just benefiting from the growing market of the mainland. Many are now building factories in the United States to bypass protectionist legislation. They’re also encouraging executives to join industry trade groups to squelch any anti-Chinese sentiment.

One such company is Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE ADR: STP), which earlier this year said it plans to build a factory in the Southwest United States. The company said it is exploring opportunities in several states as it seeks to expand its presence in the U.S. solar market.

“It’ll be to facilitate sales — ‘buy American’ and things like that,” Steven Chan, Suntech’s head of global sales and marketing told The New York Times.

However, Suntech Chief Executive Officer Shi Zhengrong told The Times in an interview that 90% of the workers at the $30 million factory will be blue-collar laborers welding together panels from solar wafers made in China. And because of the generous subsidies it receives from Beijing, Suntech can sell solar panels on the U.S. market for less than the cost of the materials, assembly and shipping.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. (NYSE ADR: YGE), another large Chinese manufacturer, announced last week that it also had a “preliminary plan” to build solar panels in the United States, The Times reported.

Suntech is on track to pass Germany’s Q-Cells SE as the world’s No. 2 supplier of photovoltaic cells. After losing $69 million before interest and tax in the first half of the year, Q-Cells said it would cut 500 jobs – nearly a fifth of its workforce. Two other German solar companies – Conergy and Solarworld – also reported steep losses and are fighting for survival.

“A large part of the German solar cell and solar module manufacturers will not survive,” UBS AG analyst Patrick Hummel told the Financial Times Germany newspaper.

Both Conergy and Solarworld have accused Chinese manufacturers of dumping and called on Western governments to protect the solar industry with import tariffs on Chinese products. But so far there has been no action on the part of U.S. and European governments.

“It’s absolutely disgraceful that [U.S. President Barack] Obama is going around the world saying we will not resort to protectionist measures against China when they’re stealing the solar-panel business out from under us,” Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland and former chief economist of the U.S. International Trade Commission, told The San Diego Union-Tribune.

Morici noted that China’s protectionist measures include a requirement that 75% of the content of government-purchased solar panels be Chinese-made. The United States has no such requirement.

In response to critics, Suntech’s Shi insists that his firm is helping the solar industry by making the technology more affordable.

“Western countries worry about the dramatic price reduction and talk about dumping. That shows a protectionist attitude. That’s wrong,” Shi told the United Kingdom’s Guardian. “We must work together to promote and utilise each other’s strengths.”

China recently  took a big step toward enhancing cooperation with Western solar companies by signing a deal with the Phoenix-based First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) to build the world’s largest solar plant.

The 2,000 megawatt complex will be built in Ordos City in Inner Mongolia by 2019. At that size, it would be about 30 times larger than any existing solar power stations in Europe.

“There are a few existing solar projects of about 50 to 60 megawatts, but this would be the biggest by a country mile,” Charles Yonts, an analyst specializing in alternative energy at CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg. “China is suggesting the solar market will be up to 20,000 megawatts by 2020, but the scale of this project suggests these estimates are far too conservative.”

First Solar will consider solar module and manufacturing sites in Ordos City as part of the agreement.

The deal raised the eyebrows of many industry leaders who were skeptical about China’s willingness to work with Western companies.

“If you announce that we have such a huge need for solar panels that we are even going to put First Solar panels into China, all of a sudden we’ve gone from this massive threat to maybe we saw it the wrong way around,” Stephan Dolezalek, managing director of Silicon Valley-based venture capital firm VantagePoint Venture Partners, told Reuters.

“Maybe we should see the size of the Chinese market as this enormous upside potential, and maybe all of solar should be seeing it much more positively.”

BrightSource Energy Chief Executive Officer John Woolward said his company is moving “slowly and deliberately” to find a partner in China, while Tom Werner, chief executive of the California-based SunPower Corp. (Nasdaq: SPWRA) said the deal “clearly makes use more bullish on China.”

“We hope that that will result in us being able to penetrate that market as well,” he added.

Source: Solar Energy’s Future Shines Brightest in China

Oil prices have recovered, climbing over $60 a barrel, the recent stock market rally has lured many investors back off the sidelines, and President Barack Obama’s clean energy agenda has breathed some life back into the browbeaten sector.

Now, solar energy stocks – some that lost more than two-thirds of their value last year – have come roaring back.

After topping $300 a share last spring, shares of First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) plummeted to just $85.28 a share in November. But since then the company has bounced back, soaring 125% to Friday’s close of $191.72 a share.  Shares of Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) hit $52 last summer before bottoming out at $5.61 in November. That stock is up more than 260% since Nov. 21.

Global economic growth is far from guaranteed at this early stage, but there’s good reason to believe that when a recovery does get underway, solar stocks will be shooting for the moon.

California’s Gold Standard

While many other solar energy companies have collapsed under the weight of the economic downturn, a small upstart out of California has managed to greatly expand its business.

That company is BrightSource Energy, which last week agreed to what the company’s Chief Executive Officer, John Woolard, called the “the largest solar deal in the world.”

Pacific Gas and Electric Co. agreed to purchase 1,310 megawatts (MW) of solar thermal power from BrightSource Energy for a sum that analysts’ believe tops $3 billion.

BrightSource had already agreed to transmit 900 MW of solar power to PG&E in a deal that analysts valued at $2 billion to $3 billion. The terms of the new deal, which expands upon the original 900MW agreement, will build on top of that figure.

BrightSource plans to build seven solar power plants in the Mojave desert of California that will use mirrors to direct sunlight onto a group of centralized water towers to create steam that will, in turn, power turbines. PG&E estimates that the amount of energy produced by the plants will be sufficient enough to power 530,000 homes.

Earlier this year, BrightSource signed a similar 1,300 MW agreement with Southern California Edison Co. – an indication that, despite economic hardship, the solar energy business is still hot.

But a lot of BrightSource’s recent activity has to do with California’s newly adopted state energy policy. In 2006, California passed a law that required electrical utilities to get 20% of their power from renewable sources by 2010.

However, on November 17, 2008, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger took the state’s green energy mandate further by signing Executive Order S-14-08, which requires that utilities generate 33% of their power through renewable sources by 2020.

Indeed, the state of California has led the country in adopting renewable sources of energy, particularly solar.

Renewable energy accounts for 13.5% of the state’s energy consumption, and for the past three years, the California Energy Commission has been managing $400 million targeted for solar on new residential building construction. That includes an ambitious “Million Solar Roof” initiative that will create 3,000 megawatts of installed photovoltaic capacity by 2018.

But California is more than an energy pioneer. It’s an early indication of where U.S. energy policy is headed.

If President Barack Obama’s administration has its way, mandates similar to those issued in California will be employed across the country over the next 10 years. In fact, they already are.

Solar Shift

Obama announced Tuesday that he is making California’s standard for vehicle fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions the new national standard.

Under Obama’s new proposals, vehicles would be 30% cleaner and more fuel efficient by 2016. And that’s just the beginning.

The President’s budget incorporated $646 billion in revenue from capping global-warming pollution, while allocating $150 billion to renewable energy investment over the next 10 years, making his green-funding initiative the largest such effort in U.S. history.

Among other things, Obama’s recent stimulus package provides a tax credit of up to 30% for home solar installations.

The Obama administration also advocates a policy that would require 25% of U.S. electricity demand be met by renewable energy by 2025. The President has the support of the Democrat-led Congress. U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, (D – N.M.), Chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, is working on legislation that aims to make 20% of U.S. energy demand renewable by 2021.

While a renewable energy policy was largely neglected by the administration of George W. Bush, Obama’s effort can hardly be described as partisan. It is more representative of a shift in political ideology that arose when gas prices soared above $4 per gallon last summer.

A recent Gallup Poll showed that the majority of Americans support higher fuel efficiency standards such as those Obama announced Tuesday. In March, 80% of Americans said they favored higher fuel efficiency standards for automobiles.

Currently, just 28 states have renewable energy goals, but with the Obama administration’s effort and a shift in public opinion, it won’t be long before all 50 are enacting their alternative energy mandates.

According to a study by Allianz Global Investors, 78% of investors think green technology could be the “next great American industry,” and 97% of investors believe the development of alternative fuel sources will remain important even if oil prices remain relatively low.

And statistics bear that out. Venture capitalists invested $4.1 billion in alternative energy projects in 2008 – a 54% increase from the year prior, according to a report by PricewaterhousCoopers. What’s more, 45% of that money went to solar projects, compared to 23% in 2007.

“Alternative energy’s rise isn’t going to be smooth, but it’s going to be one of the great new growth industries,” Steven Berexa, managing director of research for RCM Informed, an Allianz subsidiary, told Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine.

A Global Industry

In addition to the United States, solar energy is gaining traction around the world.

After subsidizing 2,400 MW of solar projects last year, the Spanish government will subsidize an additional 500 MW this year. Japan aims to create more than 100,000 new jobs in its solar industry as part of an effort to jumpstart its flailing economy. Proposals for solar energy plants are also being considered in the Middle East and northern Africa.

Even BrightSource’s Woolard has attributed some of his company’s success to its overseas operations.

“PG&E looked hard at what we’d done,” Woolard told The San Francisco Chronicle. “They looked at the results from our plant in Israel, and that built a lot of confidence that we were meeting milestones and delivering.”

Most recently, Australia announced plans to build a solar power station that will rival BrightSource’s Southern California operation. The network is expected to produce about 1,000 MW of energy, but won’t be operational until at least 2015.

“We don’t want to be clean energy followers worldwide, we want to be clean energy leaders worldwide,” Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told the Financial Times.

The Australian government hopes renewable energy will account for 20% of the country’s power grid by 2020. Rudd said the government intends to spend about $1 billion (A$1.4 billion) of the $3.6 billion (A$4.7 billion) it has pledged to clean energy initiatives over the next decade.

Like in the United States, the Australian government hopes its alternative energy initiative will be a catalyst for private investment. John Connor, head of the Sydney-based Climate Institute, told the FT that Australia’s clean energy plan will drive an estimated $15.5 billion (A$20 billion) in private investment.

Another country with an ambitious solar agenda is China. A country with notoriously high greenhouse gas emissions, China installed about 50MW of solar capacity last year, more than double the 20 MW in 2007, Renewable Energy World reported.

Beijing plans to expand the installed capacity to 1,800 MW by 2020, as the demand for new solar modules in China could be as high as 232 MW each year from now until 2012.

China is also a good place to find promising solar companies. LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: LDK), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR:YGE), and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: JASO) have all been beaten down by the market, but could post a strong rebound when China’s solar initiative takes full flight.

Many analysts also like the aforementioned First Solar and Trina Solar Ltd., which stand a better shot of withstanding the recession because of their size and experience.

[Editor’s Note: Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is the editor of the new Geiger Index trading service. As the whipsaw trading patterns investors have endured this year have shown, the ongoing global financial crisis has changed the investment game forever.

Uncertainty is now the norm and that new reality alone has created a whole set of new rules that will help determine who profits and who loses. Investors who ignore this “New Reality”will struggle, and will find their financial forays to be frustrating and unrewarding. But investors who embrace this change will not only survive – they will thrive. With the Geiger Index, Fitz-Gerald has already isolated these new rules and has unlocked the key to what he refers to as “Golden Age of Wealth Creation” The Geiger Index system allows Fitz-Gerald to predict the price movements of broad indexes, or of individual stocks, with a high degree of certainty. And it’s particularly well suited to the kind of market we’re all facing right now. Check out our latest report on these new rules, and on this new market environment.

Source: Is the Dark Cloud Over Solar Energy Beginning to Break?

Since then, however, concerns of oversupply have whacked solar stocks. This prompted Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to downgrade several solar companies to a “sell”.

J. Cristoph Amberger says the current financial crisis will hurt investment in solar power. He recommends investors sell their positions while they still can.

This from Today’s Financial News:

Two key solar stocks are being hit hard in early indications. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) had already cut its 52-week high of $317.00 by more than half. Trading below $140 today (down 10%-plus), it’s still twenty bucks above its 52-week low of $124.96.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA), too, has been decimated. (In fact, “decimated” — meaning a violent elimination of a tenth! — seems too tame a term to describe what’s happened!) The stock is worth just a third of its 52-week high of $164.49, trading just above its 52-week low of $52 right now.

My own recent recommendation of Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) is down to $7.59 (-10.50% just today) for a total loss of -55.58%.

I do not believe the stock will double any time soon for us to break even on it. Goldman Sachs’ change of direction tell me we’re in for a sea change in the attitude toward solar companies in general, beyond the upheaval in the current market.

My original call on Yingli — which we had covered since its IPO back in the Taipan days — was motivated by expectations that Obama will win the election, unleashing a tidal flow of speculative money into “politically correct” investments. A flow triggered by the expectations of a Federal gravy train of subsidies that could make up for the economic shortcomings of solar energy.

That money may still be coming. But overall, I believe recent fascination with solar is a Prosperity Phenomenon. It’s the equivalent of a Levenger catalog (”Tools for Serious Readers”) or an Eagle Scout project marking storm drains in prosperous suburban neighborhoods with “Don’t Dump” stencils. (I did that last Saturday!)

Large-scale adoption of solar technology by consumers represents a huge investment. And currently, it doesn’t look like there will be excess play money lying around anywhere… or credit being extended.

Plus, there’s talk of a huge solar over-supply by 2010.

My recommendation: Solar technology is the new bio-ethanol. Sell while you still get money for your shares.

Source: The Death of Solar? Yet Another Bubble Has Popped!