When the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday said the U.S. economy contracted at a 1% annual pace in the second quarter, the report was actually seen as good news: It was a slower decline than in each of the two prior quarters, and economists had expected a contraction of 1.5%.

“This is good news,” Nariman Behravesh, an economist with IHS Global Insight Inc. (NYSE: IHS), told The San Francisco Chronicle.

But here’s the wild card: Although government spending did increase during the April-to-June quarter, only about 7.7% – $60.4 billion – of U.S. President Barack Obama’s stimulus package had actually made its way into the U.S. economy by June 30, the quarter’s official conclusion. Of that total, the largest component went to U.S. states to help defray the jump in Medicaid costs, CNNMoney.com reported.

Much of the $43 billion in stimulus tax relief – including the “Making Work Pay” tax credit for individual workers – also took effect during the second quarter, CNNMoney said.

At this point, it’s really difficult to “see how the effect of stimulus has been very large,” Edward Lazear, an economics professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business – who served as an advisor to former U.S. President George W. Bush – told CNN. “Very little has gone out.”
And that’s the problem.

In short, it looks like we’re already experiencing an economic rebound – without the Obama stimulus having really even kicked in … yet. In fact, the impatience over the continued U.S. malaise, the slowness of the economic turnaround and the fact that when growth does return we’re almost assured of a “jobless recovery” actually has some Washington legislators already pushing for a second stimulus.

That means the economy will be in rebound mode when nearly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in stimulus money starts to flow in. Dumping all that money into an already-growing economy won’t just serve as a simple tailwind that gives the economy a gentle push; it will be more like the head-snapping start followed by the thunderous charge down the quarter mile that we see from one of the supercharged Top Fuel Funny Cars driven by National Hot Rod Association (NHRA) star John Force. (From a standing start, Top Fuel Funny Cars cover a quarter mile in less than five seconds at speeds well in excess of 325 miles per hour).

And there’s only one outcome from that scenario – rampant inflation. In fact, U.S. consumers are probably headed for the worst bout of inflationsince the 1980s. And that makes the so-called “exit strategy” of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke all the more important.
To be sure, the Obama stimulus has given the economy a bit of a boost. So far:

• The states have deployed what stimulus money they have received, which helped fuel the biggest surge in state and local spending since 2007.
• Some early pieces of the stimulus – such as the $25 increase in unemployment benefits – have allowed consumers to spend more.
• And one economist – Economic Policy Institute’s Josh Bivens – said Obama stimulus money may have boosted growth by as much as three percentage points during the second quarter.

But other economists say that – given the environment – the second-quarter GDP numbers were much too strong. After all, business spending dropped 8.9% and hours worked fell 7%. Somehow that doesn’t translate into a mere 1% drop in GDP. That latter figure will most certainly be revised downward in the future.

Unless or until that happens, look for the third quarter GDP statistics to give us a better picture of the U.S. economy’s health. Complaints that the promised stimulus money isn’t getting where it needs to be have Obama’s economic team working overtime to iron out the problems that keep cropping up.

Mark Thoma, an economics professor at the University of Oregon, toldCNNMoney that “the third quarter will be a critical time period for assessing the stimulus package.”

And for assessing the inflation threat – which Money Morning has repeatedly warned is a very real threat. Gold, commodities, and other hard assets will be key holdings. The same is true for dividend-paying stocks. And make sure to go global – the best growth prospects will continue to be overseas.

Market Matters

A report by the New York Attorney General’s Office claims the initial nine institutions that received Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) money paid out $33 billion in bonuses in 2008.  Of particular note, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) rewarded a combined 900 employees (combined) with bonuses of at least $1 million, despite having received $45 billion each in government aid (and that doesn’t count the $3.6 billion Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. employees received).  Imagine how much they would have made if the companies were actually doing well?

While President Obama continued his road trip across America to promote health care reform, a group of conservative Democrats (Blue Dogs) came up with their version of a bill, but offered no timetable for completion.

Meanwhile, regulators pushed forward with proposed rules aimed at reducing speculation in the marketplace and focused on so-called “naked” short selling and on lpacing strict limits on commodities contracts.

In corporate news, deals were the theme of the week.  Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) made amends with Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) and forged a 10-year partnership to cut into Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq:GOOG) share of the Internet search business. And International Business Machines Inc. (NYSE: IBM) is expanding its software empire with the purchase of SPSS Inc. (Nasdaq: SPSS) for $1.2 billion.

On the earnings front, energy companies highlighted the week’s reports and the results were not pretty (though were expected).  On a positive note, Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) surprised analysts by reporting an unexpected profit, while offering a promising outlook, and Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) continued the favorable trend among (previously depressed) financials by posting strong earnings on solid investment banking operations.

Investors digested the mixed earnings news and chose to focus more on the positives.  Despite a temporary setback in China (5% index decline before encouraging comments by its central bank), the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher late in the week after General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was upgraded to a “Buy” by a major analyst, a sign of an improving climate.  The Nasdaq Composite Index even flirted with 2,000 for the first time since October 2008, and theStandard & Poor’s 500 Index edged closer to 1,000, a level not seen since last November.

The Dow ended July with its best monthly performance since October 2002.  Japanese stocks moved to their highest levels in about 10 months and European equities soared to nine-month highs.  Bond investors breathed sighs of relief as a record $115 billion Treasury auctions came to a close and foreign bankers emerged as buyers on the final day.

Economically Speaking

Has Fed Chairman Bernanke suddenly become Mr. Optimist these days? Early in the week, he proclaimed that the financial debacle ultimately would produce favorable results as “not only will we will be back on track, but the economy will be stronger than it had been before this started.”  He also urged Congress to move forward with a regulatory reform package to ensure that such dire times will not be repeated.

The Fed’s Beige Book showed that the economy remained weak, though signs of stabilization and improvements in manufacturing, housing, and even labor are occurring across several regions of the country.  Some districts reported enhanced corporate hiring, particularly within the healthcare and technology sectors.

The afore-mentioned second-quarter GDP report was better than expected, giving yet another indication that the recession is drawing closer to an end.

Still, it’s a much deeper recession than most realized: For the first time since records have been kept (1947), economic activity has declined for four consecutive quarters.  New homes sales skyrocketed in June by 11%, the fourth increase in the last six months, and home prices even climbed on a month-over-month basis for the first time since July 2006 according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.

Durable good orders fell in June, though once the volatile transportation category was removed from the statistic, orders actually increased.  Consumer confidence fell in June, as ongoing pressures on the labor markets brought continued concerns and many Americans are refraining from major purchases (now and for the foreseeable future).

On the other hand, jobless claims rose in the most recent week, though analysts pointed to discrepancies from the auto industry.   Looking at the four-week moving average as a better gauge, claims for unemployment benefits actually fell to the lowest level since January and continuous claims unexpectedly declined, as well.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Why the Obama Stimulus Has Us on a Collision Course with Inflation

The number was so big and the results beat Wall Street estimates by so much at a time when the credit crisis was wreaking havoc on so many other sectors that Oppenheimer & Sons (NYSE: OPY) oil analyst Fadel Gheit couldn’t help but quip that he didn’t think Exxon “will be lining up for any TARP money or government handout anytime soon.”

Exxon wasn’t the only heavyweight reaping the benefit of a zooming energy market that had seen crude oil climb to an all-time record of $147 a barrel in July. The combined revenue for Exxon and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) for all of last year actually exceeded the gross domestic product (GDP) of all but 16 of the world’s nations, Bloomberg News reported.

What a difference a few months can make.

If the name of the game is corporate profits, the global economic slowdown has transformed some of the world’s biggest oil companies from leaders to laggards.

Global-energy heavyweights Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE ADR: RDS.A, RDS.B) yesterday (Thursday) became the latest players to feel the one-two punch of dwindling demand and rising supplies, reporting profit drops of 66% and 67%, respectively.

Exxon’s net income fell to $3.95 billion, or 81 cents a share, compared to $11.68 billion, or $2.22 a share, in the same quarter a year ago. The results were well below Wall Street estimates for earnings of $1.02 a share. Shell’s bottom line fell to $3.82 billion, or 62 cents a share for the second quarter, compared to $1.87 per share in the same period last year.

“Global economic conditions continue to impact the energy industry both in the volatility of commodity prices and reduced demand for products,” said Exxon Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson.

With consumers and companies alike slashing costs in any way possible in an environment of spiraling unemployment and the looming possibility of inflation as a result of government stimulus efforts around the world, Exxon, Shell and other Big Oil companies are feeling the squeeze and are cutting back in almost every way possible.

“Our second quarter results were affected by the weak global economy,” Shell CEO Peter Voser when the results were released. “This weakness is creating a difficult environment both in upstream and downstream” oil production.

Shell, for instance, said it’s embarked on a cost-cutting program that will pare billions of dollars in operating expenses. In one bright spot, however, The Netherlands-based oil giant did say that it had increased its second-quarter dividend 5% to 42 cents a share, and Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry said Shell will be able to keep raising the dividend to keep pace with inflation.

Exxon’s shares fell about 1% yesterday to close at $70.72 each. They’re down about 14% from their 12-month high of $84.76. Royal Dutch Shell’s “A” shares edged up 0.13% to close at $52.53; they’re down 29% from their 52-week high of $73.97.

“There’s a lack of follow-through on production” at Exxon, Macquarie Research analyst Jason Gammel told Barron’s in an interview. “The Street rewards companies that grow production, not those who are flat.”

Exxon’s combined oil and gas production dropped 3% in the quarter, and the company blamed the year-over-year decline on restrictions imposed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Shell’s production suffered more, falling 5.3%, placing part of the blame on a politically unstable Nigeria.

The heft that gave Big Oil companies the huge advantage of global scale last year is now working against them; with their large size, and against the backdrop of a global economic downturn, finding new revenue to bump up profits – and, ultimately, their share prices – will be a major challenge, analysts say.

“I think it’s generally going to be difficult for the Big Oils to move the needle,” Howard Weil analyst Doug Leggate told Bloomberg News. “Those companies that can move the needle in terms of adding value through exploration or other methods of improving their portfolios, they’re the ones who are going to win out.”

Profit at Exxon’s production and exploration unit fell to $3.81 billion in the second quarter, down $6.2 billion compared with a year earlier. In its refining business, its profit fell to $512 million, down $1.05 billion from a year ago. Profit in the same category at Shell dropped 77%, to $1.33 billion, from $5.9 billion a year ago, mostly on lower oil prices.

The grim oil earnings news yesterday followed Wednesday’s report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that U.S. crude stocks rose by 5.1 million barrels to 347.8 million barrels for the week ended July 24. Estimates by market research firm Platts were calling for a gain of just 1.1 million barrels, MarketWatch.com reported.

U.S. crude stocks are 29.8 million barrels above the five-year average and 52.6 million barrels above year-ago levels, according to Platts.

“The data has been bearish for most of the year, and the market may be ready to acknowledge that we are awash in crude oil and products, and demand is lower than last year despite the fact that oil and product prices are much lower,” WTRG Economics analyst James L. Williams told MarketWatch. “We will be well into the recovery from the recession before there is any appreciable increase in demand.”

As of yesterday afternoon, crude oil for September delivery was trading at $66.80, up $3.45 a barrel. But that’s down $55 a barrel from this time last year – a 45.16% decrease.

Those hoping for a rally may find that they’ve only engaged in a bit of wishful thinking, since a number of analysts say there aren’t any catalysts for higher prices in sight.

Take James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group, who says that the rally to prices in excess of $70 earlier this year was “well overpriced.” He expects prices to continue to fall in the weeks and months to come, Cordier said in an interview with Yahoo Inc.’s (Nasdaq: YHOO) Tech Ticker.

Cordier points to the speculative demand driven by government stimulus packages, notably the liquid commodities in China, a nation whose economy looks “a little bit like a bubble to us.”

Cordier’s firm, which trades commodity-based options, is “selling calls with both hands.”

If there’s an upside to any of this, Cordier says it will be lower gas prices, which he expects to fall 15-to-20 cents per gallon around August or September, a welcome relief for consumers.

The low demand and rising supply of oil is catching the eye of regulators worldwide, who are applying the heat to speculators who are believed to be behind the main force behind wild swings in the futures markets over the past two years.

Here in the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) this week held the second of three hearings on energy trading. In the United Kingdom, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) will hold a special meeting on Aug. 5 with oil companies, banks, hedge funds and oil brokers to review regulation in the market.

“A lot of what we’ve seen in recent years has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals of the market,” Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. (OTC ADR: BNPQY), told Bloomberg. “Something has to be done to reduce some of the speculation, no doubt about it.”

Indeed, the supply-and-demand fundamentals taught in high school and college have actually come under fire just because of how speculators have allegedly distorted the oil-price market in recent years.

This year’s volatility in the market defy the “accepted rules of economics,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in an opinion column published earlier this month in The Wall Street Journal.

“The surge in prices last year gravely damaged the global economy and contributed to the downturn,” the two statesmen said. “The risk now is that a new period of instability could undermine confidence just as we are pushing for recovery. Governments can no longer stand idle. Volatility damages both consumers and producers.”

Big Oil executives said it is doubtful the looming U.K.-based meeting would result in any substantial new initiatives, but added that it would discuss “whether the current arrangements [in the oil market] remain appropriate,” The Financial Times reported. “The question of position limits does not seem to have the same level of priority (in Europe) as it does in the United States,” Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski told the FT.

Source: Global Slowdown and Plunging Profits Have ‘Big Oil’ Companies Searching for Ways to Rebound

• Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index flirted with 9,200 and 2,000 yesterday (Thursday), respectively. Thanks to a continuing string of better-than-expected earnings reports, the Dow jumped 83.74 points, or  0.92% to close at 9,154.46. The tech-heavy Nasdaq eclipsed 2,000 in trading before finally settling in at 1,984.30, up 16.54, or 0.84%, its highest close since October 1. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 also posted a gain, closing at 986.75, up 11.6 or 1.19%. “Institutional and retail investors are so anxious to make up the lost returns of the last year, they are using any cue to buy aggressively,” Kevin Mahn, managing director and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh told MarketWatch.com. “We got to the point in the first quarter, when everyone was so risk averse they lost out. And, in just six months, they have now become overly aggressive.”

• U.S. taxpayers yesterday (Thursday) became Citigoup Inc.’s(NYSE: C) largest shareholder with a 34% stake in the company. The federal government swapped $25 billion of its $45 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) investment into common stock. The remaining $20 billion will remain in the form of preferred shares that pay an 8% annual dividend.

• Initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 584,000 last week the Labor Department said yesterday (Thursday). However, the number of people still on benefit rolls after collecting an initial week of aid fell by 54,000 to 6.20 million in the week to July 18, the lowest since early April. That fueled optimism that the economy is on the mend.

• Light, sweet crude for September delivery yesterday (Thursday) rose $3.59, or 5.6%to settle at $66.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The surge left some analysts miffed, as there was no obvious motivation. “You need to really worry about a market that sells off on a very large build and supply one day, and then it rebounds on no headline at all,” analyst and trader Stephen Schork told The Associated Press.

• Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) yesterday (Thursday) posted an unexpected profit for the second quarter after several quarters of losses. Motorola said cost cuts including 8,000 layoffs so far this year were largely responsible for the turnaround. Revenue dropped 32% to $5.5 billion for the quarter, but the company reported a profit of $26 million, or 1 cent a share. That’s up from $4 million a year ago.

• The worst recession in more than 60 years is taking its toll on theWalt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) advertising and theme park revenue. The Burbank, Calif.-based company saw its net income drop to $954 million, or 51 cents a share for the quarter ended June 27. That compares to a net income of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share in the same quarter last year. Operating income from its highly seasonal theme parks dropped 19% to $521 million in the quarter, compared to last year’s $641 million, which was up 3% from 2007. Advertising on its media networks which include ESPN decreased: The operating revenue was down 13% to $1.3 billion, compared to last year’s 9% increase to $1.5 billion.

• Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer weighed in on the beating his company’s new partnerYahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) took Wednesday, when investors unloaded shares to send Yahoo’s stock down more than 12%. “People haven’t figured it out,” Ballmer said. “Yahoo gets 88% of the search revenue they have today. They have 0% cost of goods sold against 88% revenue and they have no [research and development] expense and no ongoing [capital expenditure],” Ballmer said in a Dow Jones Newswires report, which cited an event at Microsoft’s headquarters in Redmond, Wash. Yahoo’s Wall Street beating continued yesterday (Thursday), with its shares closing at $14.60, down 54 cents or 3.57%. Microsoft’s shares climbed 1 cent yesterday, closing at $23.81, up .04%.

• Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) made a minimum bid of $113.6 million for Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. (OTC: FRNTQ) in a bankruptcy auction that would eliminate its low-fare rival. The bid would compete with a pending offer of $108.8 million fromRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: RJET). The winning bidder will get a bigger foothold in the Rocky Mountain region. “Taking the Denver gates and equipment from Frontier would give them a large presence there, and the cities that aren’t on Southwest’s route map now could easily be integrated,” said Dave Swierenga, president of an aviation consulting firm AeroEcon toldBloomberg News.

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, July 31, 2009

Just because a company like Caterpillar crushes its estimates, it doesn’t mean the business is humming along. It just means they beat the estimate.

That said, at a time like this, it’s important to figure out why the earnings come in better than expected. Were sales higher than forecast? Did margins improve? Was it due to a lower tax rate? Lower general and administrative costs (layoffs)?

There are a number of reasons why a company might spring a surprise. Let’s take a look at a few that recently reported stronger than expected earnings and see if we can figure out why it happened…

Yahoo! (Or Not)

On Tuesday, Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) doubled up on analysts’ estimates, notching earnings per share of 16 cents, versus expectations of 8 cents. That was on a non-GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices) basis, though. Using GAAP, the company earned 10 cents per share – a penny more than in the same period last year.

Behind the flashy headline numbers, Yahoo actually experienced a 13% decline in sales. It offset that with a $120 million decrease in sales and marketing expenses and $50 million less in general and administrative expenses (most likely due to layoffs).

In addition, the company’s gross and operating margins were both lower than the corresponding earnings period in 2008. So while Yahoo did beat its estimates – and even earned more per share than it did last year – it was all due to cost-cutting and firing employees.

Starbucks Brews Up Earnings… But Are They Real?

Despite a revenue decline of 6.6% during its fiscal third quarter, as all-important same store sales dropped by 5%, Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) was still able to post a profit of $151 million or 20 cents per share. That beat EPS estimates by a penny and compared to a loss of $6.7 million during the same period a year ago.

To its credit, management was able to shave operating costs at company-owned stores from 42.1% of revenue to 41.9%. But the big change to this quarter’s income statement was the roughly $175 million in cost-saving, mainly by closing stores.

It took $51.6 million in restructuring charges this quarter, versus $167.7 million a year ago.

Starbucks also had an additional $33 million benefit, due to lower interest expenses, higher interest income, plus other items when compared to last year.

But even though the company swung to profitability, a quick comparison of this quarter’s numbers versus the same data from a year earlier shows that the real story behind the profitability was because of savings from closed stores.

Still, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Starbucks did need to cut back ( as long as they dont cut the one by my office). And if the company can show increased profitability from existing (and any new) stores in the future, then its cost-cutting moves will prove fruitful.

Right now, though, a look at Starbucks’ numbers tells us that its recovery is still early in its development. Too early, in my opinion, to make for an attractive investment.

Delta Air Lines: A Tale Of Lower Revenues And Poor Traders

Here’s another example of how the mainstream media can mislead.

Some outlets reported that Delta Air Lines’ (NYSE: DAL) revenue shot up by 27%. But some journalists didn’t take the company’s acquisition of Northwest into account. Their combined revenue actually fell by 23%.

In addition, while Delta did report better than expected numbers, losing 24 cents per share, 5 cents better than consensus estimates, it would have turned a profit if not for losses suffered when trying to hedge fuel costs.

So in Delta’s case, the airline was actually operating in the black, despite lower revenues. That was until some traders got involved and bet the wrong way on fuel prices.

I don’t love the airline business, but if Delta can show me another quarter where it manages its business efficiently, it could be an interesting recovery play. Assuming some oil traders don’t mess things up, of course.

Clearly, this is just a quick look at these companies’ earnings reports. But even then, it reveals more information than the headline numbers you see reported in the press. Unless you drill into those numbers, they can be pretty much meaningless.

Hoping your longs go up and your shorts go down.

Source:  A Trio Of Twisted Numbers… And How To Get Beyond The Fluff

• The introduction of the new iPhone 3GS and a price cut for the 8-gigabyte iPhone 3G propelled Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) to easily exceed Wall Street expectations for its third quarter ended June 30. The company reported a net income of $1.23 billion, or $1.35 a share, on revenue of $8.34 billion, compared to a net income of $1.07 billion, or $1.19 a share, on revenue of $7.46 billion in the same quarter last year. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.17 a share on revenue of $8.20 billion. Apple, which could lead a second-half tech sector rebound, sold 5.2 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to a mere 717,000 in the same quarter in 2008. The company’s computer business edged up 4% year-on-year, with sales totaling 2.6 million Macintosh computers in the quarter. Apple sold 10.2 million units of its ubiquitous iPod, down 7% from the previous year’s quarter.

• The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) yesterday (Tuesday) reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, as growth in emerging markets such as India and China helped offset the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar. Second-quarter profit rose 43% from the same period last year to $2.04 billion, or 88 cents per share. Sales fell 9% from last year, to $8.27 billion, something the company attributed to a rise in the value of the dollar. But international sales volume gained 5% in the second quarter, even as U.S. sales fell 1%.

• The $3 billion bridge loan CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT) may not be enough to keep the lender out of bankruptcy, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC. With $1.7 billion in debt payments due by year’s end, and another $8 billion coming due in 2010, analysts at CreditSights have said the company may need about $6 billion to avoid bankruptcy protection, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), said yesterday (Tuesday) that Treasury officials have not done enough to ensure American tax dollars are being used appropriately, CNNMoney reported. The TARP Czar said the Treasury should require banks to report exactly how they’re using their bailout dollars. Barofsky also wants Treasury to report the actual worth of the assets it has purchased via the bailout. The inspector general’s office has launched 35 criminal and civil investigations into a range of allegations from accounting and securities fraud to insider trading and public corruption.

• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) stock jumped more than 7.5% yesterday (Tuesday) after the company boosted its 2009 profit forecast. Second-quarter profit tumbled 66% to $371 million, or 60 cents per share, but the company said it saw evidence that government stimulus plans, particularly in China, are beginning to have an effect. Caterpillar stock surged $2.83 a share, or 7.72%, to close at $39.48.

• Investment management firms BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) andState Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) beat and missed Wall Street expectations in the second quarter. BlackRock reported a net income of $218 million on revenues of $1.03 billion, or $1.59 a share for the quarter ended June 30, down from last year’s net income of $274 million, or $2 a share. Analysts at FactSet Research were expecting BlackRock’s earnings to be $1.58 a share on revenues of $1.01 billion. Meanwhile, State Street posted a net loss of $3.18 billion, or $7.12 a share on revenues of $2.12 billion. That compares to a net income of $548 million, or $1.35 a share. Analysts were expecting earnings of 97 cents on revenues of $2.16 billion.

• Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) may consider partnering with another company to invest in the consumer-health operations it will inherit with its planned purchase of Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE:SGP) Chief Executive Officer Richard Clark said in an analyst conference call yesterday (Tuesday). “Certainly there will have to be an investment in the consumer business,” Clark said, adding that the drug maker is now considering whether “we do it alone or can we do it with a partner?” Clark later said in an interview withThe Wall Street Journal that is was too early to say which direction Merck was leaning.

• A tough advertising market led to a decline in sales for Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO), but the search giant still managed to beat Wall Street estimates. For the quarter ended June 30, Yahoo reported a net income of $141 million, or 10 cents a share on revenues of $1.57 billion, compared to a net income of $131 million, or 9 cents a share on revenues of $1.79 billion. Wall Street estimates called for average earnings per share of 8 cents and revenues of $1.14 billion.

Source: Investment News Briefs Wednesday, July 22, 2009

• Tech stocks spurred a rally among U.S. markets yesterday (Wednesday), as by Intel Corp.’s (Nasdaq: INTC) earnings exceeding of Wall Street expectations. All three major indices rose: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 3.07% to close at 8,616.21, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 2.96%, closing at 932.68, while the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite was up 3.51%, closing at 1,862.90. “There’s no doubt that the catalyst started with the report from Intel,” Chemung Canal Trust Co. Senior Investment Officer Tom Wirth told Bloomberg News. “It seems obvious to me that there’s more optimism, that we’ve seen the bottom and things are getting progressively better.”

• Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rallied $2.02, or 3.37%, to $61.54 a barrel yesterday (Wednesday) after Energy Department figures showed a smaller-than-expected increase in oil and diesel inventories. “There’s no demand number that you can point to … it’s just that (distillate) inventories didn’t build as much as expected,” Standard Chartered PLCcommodities trader Morgan Downey told The Wall Street Journal.

• The newly launched Bing search engine from Microsoft Corp.(Nasdaq: MSFT) couldn’t touch the stranglehold Google Inc.(Nasdaq: GOOG) has on the market. Bing recorded just a 0.4% gain in its market share to settle at 8.4% last month. The gain came at the expense of second-place Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO), which saw its market share fall to 19.6% in June, down from May’s 20.1%, The Washington Post reported, citing data from Comscore Inc. (Nasdaq: SCOR). Google’s share, meanwhile, held steady at 65%. Bing was launched in early June to much buzz from tech pundits and Wall Street analysts.

• States will get a $4.7 billion boost in federal stimulus funds to weatherize drafty homes, dwarfing the $447 million originally planned by Congress this year and the $227 million spent last year. The increase is so huge it has raised fears of waste and fraud, and set off a scramble to find workers and houses for them to repair. President Barack Obama said the program would lower utility bills for cash-strapped families, create new construction jobs and make the United States more energy efficient. “You’re getting a three-fer,” President Obama said. “That’s exactly the kind of program we should be funding.” Some worry that states won’t be able to keep track of the copious amounts of money. Council for Citizens Against Government Waste spokeswoman Leslie Paige said the program is open to fraud because of the way oversight is divided: The government passes the money to states, the states pass it to community action agencies and the agencies pass it to contractors who work with customers. “It’s such a Rube Goldberg operation it should be setting off alarm bells,” she toldThe Associated Press.

• Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will tell the House Oversight and Government Reform Panel in Washington today (Thursday) he acted appropriately in warning Bank of America(NYSE: BAC) Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis that top executives could be ousted if they abandoned merger plans withMerrill Lynch, Reuters reported. “It would be unthinkable for Bank of America to take this destructive action for which there was no reasonable legal basis and which would show a lack of judgment,” Paulson said in his prepared testimony. Some lawmakers are criticizing what they say was government heavy-handedness in pressuring the taxpayer-funded Bank of America to go through with the deal after escalating losses at Merrill came to light.

• U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke has weighed in China’s detainment of Australian and Chinese Rio Tinto PLC employees accused of espionage, saying multinational companies in that nation “need to have assurances and confidence” that their workers will be treated fairly, adding he will raise the case in a meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao today (Thursday), The Wall Street Journal reported. The workers are accused of bribery to obtain state secrets relating to iron-ore price talks, but Australia has yet to be officially advised of the allegations, The Journal said.

• Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), which in February said it would open branded retail stores in the United States., will place them “next to existing Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) stores this fall,”ZDNet reported, citing a statement from Microsoft’s Chief Operating Officer Kevin Turner. Microsoft has been mum on details of what exactly the stores will sell, but it is said they will be “more showcases than actual retail outlets,” anonymous sources within the company told ZDNet.

Investment News BriefsThursday July 16, 2009

• Microsoft Corp.’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Bing search engine has gained market share from rivals Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) andYahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) just weeks after its launch. The Redmond, Wash.-based software giant grabbed 12.1% of total U.S. Internet searches for the workweek of June 8-12, according to market research firm comScore, Inc. (Nasdaq: SCOR). That was up from the previous week’s share of 11.5% and May’s share of 8.2%. While the start is good for Bing, Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer was cautiously optimistic. “We have had some very good initial response,” Ballmer said. “I don’t want to over-set expectations. We are going to have to be tenacious and keep up the pace of innovation over a long period of time.” comScore did not offer the share numbers for Google or Yahoo in the same periods, but said it would have a bigger picture for the entire month when the final tallies are in.

• Natural gas reserves in the United Stats are much bigger than once thought, according to a report released yesterday (Thursday) from the Potential Gas Committee. The country possesses a resource base of 1,836 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) and a total available future supply of 2,074 Tcf. Some, such as Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens, are pushing hard for natural gas as an alternative fuel for transportation. “I launched the Pickens Plan a year ago to help reduce our dangerous dependence on foreign oil, and using our abundant supply of natural gas as a transition fuel for fleet vehicles and heavy-duty trucks is a key element of that plan,” Pickens told The Associated Press. “On the same day this report is going out, diesel prices are again on the rise, squeezing the trucking industry. Now more than ever we need to take action to enact energy reform that will immediately reduce oil imports.”

• Shares of Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) closed up more than 7% yesterday (Thursday) following news that the cruise line operator beat Wall Street earnings estimates and discounting is starting to abate. Carnival’s net income fell 32% to $264 million, or 33 cents per share for the quarter ended May 31. That compares to a net income of $390 million, or 50 cents per share. Average analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg News had Carnival earning 29 cents per share. Executives called the rise of fares on some itineraries since the end of March “encouraging.”

• Prices of Treasury bonds fell for a second day as the U.S. government said note sales will increase to a record $104 billion next week and other reports showed the deepest recession since the Great Depression may be coming to an end.  Yields on ten-year notes, which move in opposition to prices, touched the highest in almost a week amid concern President Barack Obama’s record borrowing will overwhelm demand, Bloombergreported.  The yield gap between two- and 10-year notes widened to 2.56%, the most in over a week. “There’s so much focus on the borrowing amounts Treasury will face over the next couple of years,” said Carl Riccadonna, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. (NYSE: DB) in New York. Deutsche is one of 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “There’s evidence that the economy may be turning the corner. That’s pushing yields up.“

• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) may have to consider the government’s new stance on regulatory reform when it restructures its giant GE Capital finance unit.  The possibility that the Federal Reserve might gain regulatory authority over the unit arose when President Barack Obama this week unveiled his proposal for the most sweeping overhaul of U.S. financial regulations since the 1930s.   He proposed the central bank oversee not just banks but “other large firms that pose a risk to the entire economy in the event of failure.”  GE investors said the label could apply to the U.S. conglomerate’s finance business, a major commercial lender. “I could definitely see that potentially becoming an issue if companies like GE and their finance arms came under more scrutiny,” said Perry Adams, vice president and senior portfolio manager at Huntington Private Financial Group in Traverse City, Michigan, told Reuters.

• Tourism in Mexico took a severe hit from the swine flu scare as Cancun, Cozumel, Los Cabos and other destinations reported fewer foreign tourists since the outbreak that began in April killed 108 people, the Mexican Health Ministry said. Cancun’s hotel occupancy plunged as low as 20% in May, when 13 inns with 5,200 rooms shut down, Bloombergreported.  It rebounded to 45% in the first week of June and is forecast to reach 60% next month, said Rodrigo de la Pena, president of the Cancun Hotel Association. That’s still down from 80% last July. “We’re recovering quicker than we thought,” de la Pena said. “The hotels have almost all their workforce back and tourists are arriving.” To fend off unemployment, the government rolled out a $91 million campaign urging Mexicans to vacation at home and encouraging hotels and restaurants to cut prices.

• Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), the fourth-largest U.S. credit card network, reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss as it cut costs and bad loans weren’t as bad as forecast, sending its shares up more than 4%. The company’s expenses fell 10% after it cut 500 jobs and trimmed marketing costs.  Credit card default rates also remained well below levels of its bigger rivals. The Riverwoods, Ill.-based company posted a net income of $226 million, or 43 cents per share for the quarter ended May 31. That compares to a net income of $234 million, or 48 cents per share in the same period last year.

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, June 19, 2009

GM has lost an aggregate $82 billion in the past four years even as it slashed production capacity, nameplate brands – and more than 100,000 U.S. jobs. It needs to cut another 19,000 workers by 2012 to bring its domestic employment down to 72,500 jobs.

GM on Saturday passed a major milestone ahead of a bankruptcy filing planned for today (Monday) as the deadline passed for bondholders to accept an exchange offer brokered by the Obama administration.

As of late Saturday night, GM would not comment on how many investors had tossed in their support for the debt-for-equity swap that would have them surrender $27 billion in corporate bond debt in return for as much as 25% of a restructured GM. However, the company did say this enhanced deal already had the support of investors who held 35% of GM’s bonds. The deadline passed at 5 p.m. Saturday.

Fund managers and analysts told Reuters that that it was possible that this enhanced  bond offer could have attracted a majority of the GM bond investors by the deadline. Under the new offer, bondholders would have a recovery of around 9 cents on the dollar, up from an estimate of zero to 5 cents under the previous offer. GM bondholders last week rejected a proposal that would have given them a 10% stake in a reorganized GM.

“The warrants and the improved capital structure make for an improved recovery for bondholders,” Brian Johnson, an analyst for Barclays Capital PLC (NYSE ADR: BCS), told the news service. “In terms of the bankruptcy process, we expect the likely bondholder assent to smooth the process.”

The United Auto Workers union (UAW) on Friday cleared the way to the bankruptcy filing when it overwhelmingly approved a new labor pact that lets GM slash costs.

GM has struggled in recent years to compete, hurt by its truck and SUV-dominated vehicle line-up and a deep plunge in U.S. vehicle demand.

Market Matters

In the holiday-shortened work week, investors searched for  the tonic needed to escape the “excessive” volatility that still exists in the markets.  How did that cure-all work out?  In three consecutive sessions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 193, plummeted 173, and finally rebounded 104 points.  Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, the perceived safe-haven for risk-averse investors, soared by 30 basis points during the week and its declining value prompted many to rethink their “flight-to-quality” strategies.  After the recent talks that Standard & Poor’s Inc. may cut its rating on UK debt, investors began speculating that the mass domestic borrowings (to rescue virtually every industry and near-bankrupt company) will take its toll on US debt ratings as well.  While Moody’s Investors Service Inc. (NYSE: MCO) offered a bit of confidence by proclaiming the Aaa rating remains “stable,” it did leave the door open for a future downgrade. Fortunately, the week’s treasury auctions were generally well-received, though investors remain cautious that demand may subside in the future as the deficit balloons.  Stocks followed bonds for a change as traders unloaded equities on weakness in fixed income, only to buy again after the favorable auctions (among other news).  And the volatility continued.

With its bankruptcy filing, GM is merely taking a step to following in Chrysler LLC’s footsteps. Chrysler hopes to move beyond its own bankruptcy as a judge considers its restructuring via the Fiat SpA (ADR OTC: FIATY) deal.

A Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) report showed that banks earned $7.6 billion in profits in the first quarter, rebounding from the first quarterly loss for the industry in 18 years.  Before executives could award themselves (excessive) bonuses, the report added that the number of institutions considered “problem” climbed from 252 to 302 and said that delinquencies rose across most loan types.

In other corporate news, Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) is set to launch “Bing,” its upgraded search engine on June 3 and Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) remains open to a partnership (after last year’s failed buyout) if offered a “boatload of money.”  Costco Corp.’s (Nasdaq: COST) earnings fell by more than analysts expected; Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) continued to struggle from a decrease in IT spending; Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) plans to spin-off AOL by year-end.  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met and held production levels steady, though crude prices surged above $66 a barrel for the first time in six months and prices now stand almost twice as high as its mid-February level.

Economically Speaking

A recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics showed that 93% of the respondents believe the recession will end in 2009, with almost 75% of them seeing a third-quarter recovery. Still, most feel the rebound will be slow to develop as unemployment continues to climb (the survey says it will average 9.1% this year).   The results also predict gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 1.8% in the second quarter, before turning positive (though ever-so-slightly) over the latter six months of the year.  By comparison, the first quarter GDP revision was reported as down 5.7%, a modest rebound from the 6.1% initially released, though weaker than many prior forecasts and still reflective of some pretty dire domestic economic conditions.

Since the consumer accounts for two-thirds of the activity within the economy, analysts point to some favorable sentiment data as further proof that the recession is nearing an end.  In May, the Conference Board said that consumer confidence experienced its best showing in eight months, while the Reuters/U of Michigan Index also posted stronger results.  Renewed activities should be welcome news to retailers and manufacturers alike, some of whom will be counted on to resume hiring over the next few months as they reap some rewards to their bottom lines.

April housing data also highlighted the week’s economic releases as both new home (+0.3%) and existing home sales (+2.9%) posted gains.

However, the inventory of unsold properties continued to climb and the median sales prices fell from already weak levels.  Delinquencies remain on the rise as 12% of all homeowners have fallen behind on their mortgages and foreclosures rates on even the prime borrowers (with decent credit) have surged in recent times.  Even though housing still has a way to go before the “worst of times” officially will be considered over, some early signs of a rebound in activity may be emerging.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Bankrutpcy Will Let General Motors Move Forward

The site of the coming-out party for the new Web search engine apparently will be a high-tech conference called “D: All Things Digital,” which is sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. The conference, slated for The Four Seasons Aviara in North San Diego, Calif., begins Tuesday and ends Thursday, and features as speakers some of the top executives in the media, entertainment and high-tech fields. Interestingly enough, Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Steven A. Ballmer is one of the scheduled speakers.

According to a Journal report, the new Microsoft search engine – code-named “Kumo” -has been in private tests inside the company for months. Kumo is aimed at consumers and is supposedly designed to achieve two goals:

• Decrease the amount of time they spend clicking their way across the Web in search of information. The technology is designed to cut down on the length of typical Web searches by grouping the results of a search for, say, a particular model of car into helpful categories like parts, used car listings, online discussion forums and videos showing the vehicle.
• Offer better ways of organizing search results. For instance, the search results for a special-interest car might be grouped into more-helpful categories such as sales listings of that type of car, parts distributors, car clubs and online discussion forums, and even videos of that model car, published reports state.

Microsoft is planning a major promotional push and advertising campaign to boost the search-engine’s visibility and has hired the agency JWT (formerly known as J. Walter Thompson), a unit of London-based WPP PLC (Nasdaq ADR: WPPGY), to develop a campaign for the product, people familiar with the matter say.

Microsoft has a tough road to travel in order to overcome Google’s massive market-share lead in the Internet-search arena. On Monday, research firm comScore Inc. (Nasdaq: SCOR) reported that Google’s share of the U.S. Internet search market during April was 64.2%, an increase of 0.5% from March.

In fact, Google was the only major search engine to post a market-share gain for April. Microsoft and Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) both saw market-share declines of 0.1% for the month. That left Yahoo with 20.4% of the market and Microsoft with 8.2%, according to a report by ITProPortal.com.

Ask.com – part of IAC/Interactive Corp. (Nasdaq: IACI) – saw its market share hold steady at 3.8%, while AOL LLC experienced a 0.3% decline to finish April with a U.S. market share of 3.4%, comScore and ITProPortal both said. AOL is a subsidiary of media heavyweight Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX).

A look at actual search queries underscores the huge lead enjoyed by Google. There were 14.8 billion search queries in April, a 3% increase from March. Google accounted for 9.5 billion of the searches, followed by Yahoo (3 billion) and Microsoft (1.2 billion).

This huge chasm between the leaders and the laggards is a key reason Microsoft and Yahoo are still pursuing a possible partnership, even though Microsoft’s proposed $45-plus billion acquisition of Yahoo went sour due to founder ego, greed and internal shareholder disputes, Money Morning has reported. The two tech firms continue to discuss a tie-up in which Yahoo would divest its search and search-advertising technology to Microsoft, in return for an upfront payment and a percentage of the search-ad revenue the partnership generates, sources familiar with the talks reported.

It isn’t known how far the talks have progressed or whether any deal is imminent, as spokesmen for both Microsoft and Yahoo declined comment on the negotiations.

Google search – originally developed by by Larry Page and Sergey Brin in 1997 – remains the most-widely used search engine on the Web, and receives several-hundred-million queries a day via Google’s assortment of services.

Source: Hot Stocks: Microsoft Takes Aim at Google’s Web Dominance With New Search Engine

• The coming global “arms race” to get nationwide broadband connectivity. The arms race recently heated up with the launch of Australia’s $31 billion nationwide broadband plan, which dwarfs the $7 Billion contemplated in the current U.S. budget.

• China’s has accelerated its broadband buildup, which was highlighted by Corning in its conference call as compensating for a weak U.S. telecom segment. China’s broadband buildup is a component of its $585 billion stimulus package.

• Inventory liquidation appears to be behind us, and carriers, who are facing double-digit internet traffic growth, cut expenses for equipment to about 2% to 3% of revenue, down from their traditional level of 15% of revenue.  This cannot go on for long.

Well, these same three factors are propelling Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN).  Corning leads in optical fiber, but Ciena leads in the supply of sophisticated networking equipment.

Ciena just launched a partnership with NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) on something that is very near and dear to the hearts of investors: “Speed and ultra-low latency to facilitate unparalleled execution of equities quotes, trades, options data and other financial transactions in the U.S., Europe and globally.”
Indeed, few activities have the sensitivity to speed, volume and reliability of data transmission as stock and options trading.

Ciena’s proprietary dense wavelength division multiplexing technology gets up to 100 Gigabytes per second, a first in the world.  So, if you want to be fast and have huge data transmission capabilities, you have to have Ciena’s products.  But Ciena’s competitive advantages do not stop there.

Ciena’s products allow carriers to get more capacity from fiber optic networks that are already deployed.  And their intelligent traffic allocation offers superior efficiency, as well.  These are competitive advantages that take time to match.

I absolutely love these technological leaps, which produce margin expansion and sales pickup at the same time, the surefire recipe for a bigger bottom line.

And as I mentioned with regards to Corning, the United States is lagging behind 14 other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries in broadband access, price and speed.  This is a national crisis.

The telecommunications industry will not be able to stay put with the status quo.  There is an explosion of video over the Internet.  Not only do we see the phenomenon of YouTube.com, but we now have many other sources of voracious bandwidth accelerating dramatically.

Mainly, there is a huge pickup in activity in streaming TV series, sports and movies on sites like Hulu.com, as well as movie and song downloads.  In addition, you have video conference calls including earnings results and video web-events, such as Money Morning’s own webinars.

Also, there’s the push towards cloud computing, which features all the data and applications residing and being processed in a remote server, like those of Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) ad Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO).

Last but not least, there’s been a huge surge in online video gaming and you see product demos and video ads populating many search and web publications.  And do not forget “computing everywhere” with the proliferation of iPhones, RIMM’s and other smartphones, as well netbooks, which are constantly connected to the web with broadband wireless access.

The bottom line is that video traffic and other broadband-chugging applications are exploding.

And, while traffic is exploding, the telco carriers in the United States, like most companies, went into the fetal position and decided to conserve cash.  Thus, they kept equipment purchases to the absolute bare minimum, utilizing whatever inventory they had before reordering.

Thus, it was no surprise that Ciena had a weak first quarter and lowered revenue guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter to $190 million-$210 million.

But this inconsistency will not last long, as unemployment is stabilizing and the core of the financial system has become progressively unclogged. The amount of pent-up demand that has built up will mean an explosive uptick in fourth-quarter sales.

And Ciena, a less diversified and much smaller company than Corning, is bound to see its stock price appreciate over a long period of time, and by a much higher percentage.

Ciena is trading at only one times book value.  And, despite its negative operating margins, the company has cut expenses, has a strong cash position of more than $900 million – enough to retire its entire long term debt and have almost $200 million left – and a much more flexible cost structure than in the past.

Thus, the huge operating leverage to volume puts this stock in a superb position to take advantage of the exponential revenue growth that will “surprise” the markets once the telcos start buying Ciena’s products en masse.  Wall Street is asleep at the wheel on this one, with many negative views abounding.  But traders have already started covering shorts and some started going long.  And in the recent rally, Ciena has led very nicely, outperforming both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by about 30% since March 9.

The stock has more than doubled since hitting its March low, and it’s still cheap.  But with a rally of this magnitude and the summer doldrums near, where investors take time off and tech equipment sales are typically are back loaded, it could be imprudent to buy an entire position here.

Recommendation: Buy half a position of Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN) now and wait for a significant profit-taking correction in order to gradually edge into it (**).  With luck, we might be able to buy part of the second tranche between $8 and $9 a share.  Go play some golf this summer and hold for 12 to 18 months.

(**) – Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest Ciena Corp.

How to protect your cash from the “Bailout Bombshell” right around the corner…

Buy, Sell or Hold: Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN), the Second Company to Profit from the Global Broadband Arms Race